In this episode, we welcome House Canary’s Director of Research, Brandon Lwowski to look at what has been happening in the real estate market over the last years and where we are headed as an industry. We discuss the health of the real estate market, the residual effects of the response to COVID-19, and the main challenges facing investors today.
Brandon Lwowski built his career after studying Computer Science Mathematics at The University of Texas at San Antonio. In his role at HouseCanary as Director of Research, Brandon distills what is happening in the real estate market through data analytics and machine learning to help investors make more informed decisions about their portfolios.
Links:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/brandon-lwowski/
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Transcript
Before we get into the episode, here's a quick disclaimer about our content. The SFR show is for informational purposes only, and is not intended as investment advice. The views, opinions, and strategies of the hosts and the guests are their own and should not be considered as guidance, from Roofstock. Make sure to run your own numbers, make your own independent decisions and seek investment advice from licensed professionals.
Michael:
Hey, everyone, welcome to an episode of the SFR show, the place where you get all of your up to date SFR investing information. I'm Michael Albaum, and today my guest is Brandon Lwowski, the director of Research over HouseCanary and he's gonna be talking to us about all of the things that have been going on in the market over the last several years and months, and how we can use that information going forward. So let's get into it.
Hey, Brandon, what's going on? Thanks so much for taking the time to come jump in chat with me today. Appreciate it, man.
Brandon:
No, of course, it's good to be here to get an opportunity to discuss the real estate market for sure.
Michael:
Yeah, I'm super excited. So you're the director of Research at HouseCanary. Give us all just a quick little bit of insight background on who you are and what house canary is and what they do as a company.
Brandon:
Yeah, definitely. So HouseCanary, you know, it's basically a national brokerage and so it's really known for its real estate valuation, technology and accuracy. This company has been around since 2013. It was founded by Jeremy Sicklick, our CEO and our Chief of Research, Chris Stroud, kind of off of the 2008 housing crisis, they did decide to form this company to kind of help speed up the transactions and speed up and really gain knowledge and just competence in the real estate market through using analytics machine learning to provide 100 and 14 million valuations on properties as well as 91 million rental valuations. So if you think of how scary it's built around the analytics and valuations of the United States real estate market.
Michael:
It was at $114 million valuations that you said since it since inception.
Brandon:
No, that's monthly, we produce 114 million property valuations. Of course, the 114 million is a subset of you know, every property in the United States and that repeated monthly, but we train this very complex machine learning model AI model to produce 114 million property valuations.
Michael:
That's incredible. Well, I want to come back to HouseCanary as a company here in a minute. But I want to first start by asking you, Brandon, because it is so analytics and data driven, what is it that HouseCanary as a company and you as an as the director of research are seeing in the numbers in the data with regard to just where we are in the market, there's so much chatter about market cycles and ups and downs and bubbles, give us a little bit of insight to what are the numbers and facts supporting where we are right now, as we're recording this brand new into the new year 2023.
Brandon:
I think kind of the one of the biggest headlines to kind of drive home right now, especially in the market, we have this unique combination of these elevated interest rates and you know, the slow buying season that we typically see during the winter months, this has really impacted across the board, our new inventory coming into the market, our new listings, listings going under contract, all of these metrics that we typically look at to understand the health of the market and the health of the real estate market, have really had significant declines year on a year over year basis, that's across the board inventory listings under contract, the Feds kind of you know, their fourth straight 75 basis point interest rate increase, you know, as the thing is, the fourth month straight or the fourth, fourth one straight, has really had that negative impact on net inventory. But this is just providing more evidence that you know, supply of homes is still squeezed and it's remaining negative over time, we've kind of seen this trend since August, right where our supply of affordable housing and actually all housing in the market has really continued to drop and this is basically you know, the biggest driving factor here is that interest rates shot really driving down these new listings volumes to like a multiyear low since pre you know, I don't use the word pre pandemic because you know, we're still in the pandemic, but that pre pandemic peaks we'll call them we're seeing you know, all its multi-year lows in terms of new listings, everything going on the real estate market. The biggest picture here is even as these interest rates come up, our supply just remains extremely negative and still going in a downward trajectory.
Michael:
And when you say downward trajectory is that From 12 months prior, or is that from the prior month?
Brandon:
We're looking at a year a year basis right now. If you think about the month over month basis, we are still seeing declines. But when we're talking about these multi year lows in terms of net new listings, on the purchase side of the market, we've reached those multi year lows. I think, you know, the reason why this supply crisis is also happening right now is, in this current real estate environment, it's really difficult to convert homeowners and current renters and convert them into future homebuyers, right. In this elevated interest, interest rate market, it just doesn't make sense financially for a lot of people to enter the market, you think of this large group of, of homebuyers that purchase homes at record low interest rates, they refinanced during the peak of a call it the peak of the refinance, boom, that happened during the pandemic and for them to reenter the market, it just doesn't make financial sense for them. So in order to move out of their current home and into a new loan, they're going to be paying a higher premium for the same quality of home. So they're available availability to spend money has definitely decreased and I really don't see this inventory shortage, kind of relieving itself or beginning to increase well into, you know, the first quarter, second half or first half of 2023, the supply just remains super squeezed.
Michael:
Okay and so that, like the supply aspect is, I'm guessing one ingredient in the recipe, so to speak, what are some of the other things that you're looking at, and that you're seeing, to give you an indicator of where we're headed and where we are currently.
Brandon:
Right. So I think so the supply is, has been squeezed, I think since COVID, there's been a really tight squeeze on the flat supply side of the market. But with those low interest rates that were happening, I mean, 1- 2% interest rates, people were getting their home loans that the demand for property shot up, which is why we really saw that two, three years of just record breaking price growth and the real estate market. Now we're looking at the demand side, and we're actually in the seventh consecutive month of double digit declines in on a year over year basis, we're looking at the listings that are coming under contract in the market. So if you look at inventory as a supply of new listings coming in, if we look at listings of those listings, and the existing market, this existing supply, existing supply, listings under contract is still seven consecutive months of double digit declines since November, are all of our data right now, it's kind of up to that first week of December 2, so we kind of think of it as, as of November. This is this kind of is the driving force behind this is, you know, we've never seen this kind of seventh consecutive month of double digit. So it's kind of driving a lot of fear into homebuyers and home owners and the way we kind of know that this is not normal, it's kind of beyond the typical seasonality we'd expect during the cold winter months to have seven consecutive months, this kind of uncertainty in the market around interest rates, economic downturn, the inflation, they just continue to force homeowners and would be buyers, you know, to play the waiting game, they're, they're gonna sit in the sidelines, they're gonna stay away from the market and so they're a little more competent in in where this kind of roller coaster is going.
Michael:
As I'm thinking about such a visual thinker. I'm thinking about this as almost like a race to the bottom in a sense of like supply versus demand once because it sounds like they're almost moving in lockstep negatively, we were having a reduction in supply, but we also have a reduction in demand and once right is that is that the right way to think about it?
Brandon:
The demand has definitely began to decrease or is decreasing at a faster rate than supply because supply has been squeezed since the pandemic whenever the shutdowns happened. People just stop selling houses. They stopped listing their home so the supply side of the market has been squeezed since the shutdown the pandemic. The demand side due to the interest rate hikes the economic uncertainty, that's where we're really seeing the decrease on the supply side where the decreases are coming from. So even though you know supply is always been net always been tight. We've been tight recently in recent years. A lot of the continued decrease on supply side is actually coming from net new listings so people aren't putting listings on the market right now. For the reason that we discussed earlier. It's hard to get homeowners back into the game. They're actually down around 25% on a year over year basis, in terms of like how many new listings are coming into the market, but even a bigger piece here is on the supply side is our removals of listings are up 65% on a year over year basis. So houses that were listed last month six are being removed from the market further impacting supply, while supply has been remained squeezed like very, very tight supply of properties over the years, there still is a decrease in net new listings, and also an increase in removal. So in that supply is being affected. But when it's so squeezed already, that that impact in the market will not be as significant as the impact of a decreasing demand side of the market.
Michael:
Yeah and that makes total sense and so what are you seeing with regard to sale, as opposed to sale of percent of this price and then also days on market?
Brandon:
Yeah. So I think some other key indicators, the market, you kind of just discussed, you know, we have days on market, I think price lists ratio is important, I think, the median price, right, the time series of how is price behaving in this environment, all important and understanding kind of the overall health of the market and I kinda like to go with the big one first, in my opinion, which is the median price, right? Where is the market going? I kind of macro at a national scale. The, if you look at the year over year basis, median price of all single family listings, right, so single family dwellings, that those are actually up 10%, on list prices, and actually up 2% in terms of actual close prices. So even though we're seeing the storyline of these prices really starting to decline and kind of freefall, we're still seeing as a year over year basis, because we hit such a huge peak in the middle of 2022. We're still up year over year, by those two percentage I meant mentioned.
On a month over month basis that compared to last month, we are slightly down, but it's very, very small. We're down around one and a half percent on listings and down and less than half a percent on close prices. So we see a lot of the storylines and the headlines across the news, that these prices are falling drastically. We're in a deep decline. The roller coaster rails are off and we're down to 2008 again, but just looking at the data alone without any sort of human interjection or opinions. I'm not an economist, I'm a data scientist. But by heart, I'm just looking at the data because we had such a high peak in the middle of 2022, in terms of the median house prices were still up year over year and on a month over month basis, the declines in price are very, very miniscule, to what we're kind of hearing in the media. So that's one thing, right? The median price is definitely a driving factor. Everyone's concerned about like, what am I going to get for my property? Where's the trend of our nationwide real estate market heading and even though we're in a slight downtick month, over month, if you look at long term, we're still up 10% on listings and up, you know, 2% on closed prices.
Michael:
It seems like there has been so much resiliency, if we're seeing such a miniscule price reduction month over month and year over year, there seems to be a lot of resiliency to interest rate increases for folks, and that they're still closing transactions, even at this much higher interest rates, and they're not saving a lot or really anything at all, in terms of the price that they're paying out the door.
Brandon:
Right, I think what's causing these prices to, I don't wanna say remain elevated, but kind of not declining at the pace that we would expect is that tight supply. Now, we're still a few months probably away from seeing how this kind of mass layoff and technology could affect the real estate market. Because, in my opinion, what's really going to drive these prices down is when we see supply, increase at levels that the demand has decreased and that imbalance in the market is what will really drive those prices down and the reason why kind of refer to that technology, layoff if that same style, that same volume of layoffs, hits other sectors of employment, then we're going to see defaults and people need to give up their homes because they can't afford it anymore. So unless something in outside of the real estate market really drives the demand. I'm sorry the supply side of the market to escalate at a very fast rate, that safety net is there to kind of keep our prices from really crashing, like we saw in 2008. We don't have the same supply that we saw in 2008. So we're kind of have that safety net there. Unless like I said, something really drives that unemployment up and forces people to default and give up their homes or sell their homes because they can't afford the mortgage anymore.
Michael:
But it's interesting, because from all the news that I've been hearing, and correct me if I'm wrong, maybe you've been hearing, the unemployment rate is super low. Like there just doesn't seem to be those mass layoffs that we saw in the tech industry, yet anyhow, affecting so much of the so many other industries. So it doesn't feel as imminent.
Brandon:
100% right, I'm hoping I mean, just for the health of our economy, I'm hoping that that mass layoff doesn't reach other sectors and I hope that we're done with majority of it. But we're probably a month or two away from really understanding did that actually have an impact on our median, price per square foot or median close price of a property and then we can track those defaults, and those the supply over the next few months to see if that really impacted the real estate market or not.
Michael:
And that makes total sense. We'll talk this Brandon about those other two factors that you mentioned the price to list ratio, and then the days on market.
Brandon:
The price to list ratio has actually been on a pretty big decline. I think back in May 2022, it may have been June or May, I think we're at a multiyear high of around 102%. So most properties, were selling 100 or 2% higher than the list price, which means that it's definitely a seller's market, right. If I if I can list my house for X amount of dollars, I know I'm gonna get 102% return, I mean, I happen to present a 2% return on that is definitely a seller's market. We actually for the first time in about mid-August of last year, we're now down below 100. So that's just an indicator that the markets kind of switched right now buyers kind of have that power and that ratio now stands around 98%, which is kind of the levels before COVID emerged, and actually the lowest number since the first half of 2020. So we're not we went from a high of 102 in May to now we're down to about 98 which is definitely a key indicator that buyers now have more power than the seller's because of you know, just multiple aspects that we've been talking about the high interest rates buyers be a little more choosy. Even though the supply is down sewer buyers, there's not enough buyers in the pool to compete with me anymore. So I have a little bit more pool, which is why we're seeing that sale to list price or price to list ratio, starting to decrease. That kind of in parallel, what we see with that is to kind of tell that same story that we're now entering that buyers’ market, even though demand is low, if you look at the volume of price drops, right, think about how many times a listing comes on the market for 100k. It sits there for 30 days, they come back and they say hey, you know what, let's list it for 95 maybe we can get more buyers, those price drops in terms of volume are actually up 142% year over year since the last time. It's just more evidence that buyers now because demand is so is so squeezing this high interest rate environment, they get more power listings are staying on the market longer list to or sale to list price ratio is down and then but yet the because supply still squeezed, we're not really seeing a huge impact that we're kind of seeing in the news right now, on the actual median price of all listings.
Michael:
Brandon, just out of curiosity, I think I remember if my memory serves me correctly, which it often doesn't, but like in the height of 2022, the max or the highest median home price in the country was like 395k. But do you happen to recall what that number was and maybe what it is now today?
Brandon:
Yeah, so if you look at the peak of 2022. So kind of that halfway mark, I think it was right around the ending of H 122. The actual median price is actually higher, at least according to our data, right? The data that we have availability to our actual median price was actually above 400,000. We're sitting right around like 420,000 was kind of that median price for closed listings for active listings was actually even higher than that. So for closed listings were around that for 120,000 range, right now as of the first week of December is kind of our data cut off. Right now in terms of the data that I'm giving you, we're sitting right around $380,000 as the kind of median price per square foot, I'm sorry, median price of closed listings, it sounds dramatic, and we go from, you know, that 420 ish down to three, it's a pretty big drop. But as you look at the entire time series from, we'll call it the pandemic, the start of the closed downs, all the way to today, if you bought a house, during those pandemic years, you're still doing really well in terms of the amount of equity, it's still in your home prices haven't dropped that drastically to where you're now upside on your loan, you're still well above you know, what you bought the house in, during the bottom of the pandemic years, what's really going to cause kind of some worry, and headaches is these people who kind of bought later in the year, kind of towards the end, or middle of 2022. Now, they're beginning to worry the most because they didn't have that same amount of cushion that these homeowners bought when they don't worry about houses a year or two years ago. So that number does seem like a big decrease. But if you look at the longevity of the time series of the pandemic eight pandemic shutdowns to now, you're still up quite a bit in terms of percent and you have a large cushion before you even have to worry about being upside down in a mortgage or, you know, losing a large amount of equity in your property.
Michael:
Does the data give us any indicators as to what's coming down the pike because obviously, data is rear looking. But how can we use that to be forward looking or is there a way to be?
Brandon:
Yeah, so I think you're talking about forward looking, you know, the next 6,12,18 months. If you look back slightly, we hit this topic quite a bit. It's a big topic right now in real estate is these large interest rate hikes. If you look at the timeline, the time series of the real estate market in terms of medium price terms of you know, list to sale rate of sale to price ratio, you look at, you know, the days on market, it seems that with the large amount of growth that we experienced in two years, you know, record growth, that was actually able to absorb a lot of the impact that people would assume, continuing to month over month raise this interest rate to higher and higher levels, they assumed that it was going to impact the real estate market at much a much quicker, much faster way. So then they can stop, right, the goal of raising interest rates tend to raise them forever. They're just raising them until they kind of see the market growth kind of settled down and adjust and kind of normalize. But it's kind of shocking when you think about how much and how quickly that interest rate rose and until a few months back. I mean, most of 2022 there was very little impact from those rounds of interest rates. So it's one thing that we can we can learn as, as we saw record growth, even that dramatic increase really did not impact the real estate market as we thought it would. Secondly, what's really kind of driving any sort of kind of negative view of the real estate market right now around this interest rate, is you gotta think of like purchase power of our homebuyers, right?
We didn't see salaries raised at the same rate as the real estate market, we didn't see household income raise at the same rate as real estate. So the really big question here and the kind of the, you know, the driving force here is the purchase power of homebuyers. We actually seeing and this is from Freddie Mac, I believe a 32% decrease in purchase power, based on this 30 year, you know, FRM, that's given the same monthly payments for a loan made at the end of 2021. So we're really seeing a decrease in what homebuyers can afford and that combined with hopefully the Fed has definitely signaled smaller rate hikes in the future. We're hoping that housing fundamentals can hopefully come back to a quote unquote normal seasonality cycle and the expected returns, but into early 2023. I think we're still going to see you know, a real estate market that's just characterized by this continued tight squeeze on supply tight squeeze on demand. With the exception of what we discussed earlier, which was a major economic event causing mass layoffs or firings, then I'm thinking early 2023 is going to be characterized the same kind of, of patterns we're seeing now, which is tight supply, shrinking demand, days on market, increasing. median price is slowly decreasing month over month, until we see hopefully towards the second half of 2023, a market that's brought back to its normal seasonality and its normal housing market fundamentals.
Michael:
Brandon, I want to be super respectful of your time and get you out of here, man. But before I do if people want to learn more about you and the research team HouseCanary has a whole services that y'all provide. Where's the best place for them to do that or get a hold of someone?
Brandon:
Yeah, I would definitely just go to https://www.housecanary.com/ . From there, you can get a list of all the products services, there's probably people on our company that can explain the better business use cases and appear researcher, I'm all about the data. But if you go to https://www.housecanary.com/, there's plenty of people to contact through there and also, I'll attach my email. I'll pass it on to you, Michael after this. So you can share it with the listeners.
Michael:
Thank you so much for taking the time. This was super informative and definitely again, curious to see how things all pan out.
Brandon:
Yeah, stay up, same tune. I think next week, our new market pulse comes out as well. So if you're interested in different states and how the market is performing, and also at the national level, it's a free report and that report will be valid all the way up into the end of December. So it will have kind of our December numbers added to that report and you can see those trends going on there as well. So usually is dispersed on our website. Also LinkedIn, if you follow HouseCanary on LinkedIn, that report is shared monthly for free and you can see all those metrics that we talked about updated on a monthly cadence. So you can kind of have competence in your decision making process.
Michael:
Love it, love it. We'll definitely check that out as well. Well, thanks again, Brandon. Appreciate you and we'll chat soon.
Brandon:
Appreciate it, thanks, Michael.
Michael:
All right, everyone. That was our show a big thank you to Brandon for coming on and dropping so much knowledge, facts, data and statistics on us to help us guide our investing through these kind of tumultuous times. As always, if you enjoyed the episode, we would love to hear from you all ratings and reviews are always appreciated as are comments with additional topic ideas that you are interested in learning about. We look forward to seeing on the next one. Happy investing…
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