//The Wire//1600Z May 13, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: CHINA FLEXES MUSCLE IN SOUTH CHINA SEA. PROTESTS CONTINUE AT AMERICAN UNIVERSITIES.//

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-International Events-

Far East: Tensions rise in the South China Sea following Chinese military activities in the region. Last Thursday (and somewhat continuing over the weekend), 11x Chinese Coast Guard vessels entered the territorial waters of Kinmen Island in a sharp escalation within the waters of Taiwan’s outlying island county. In the south, conflict with the Philippines has reignited following PLAN vessels both blockading Scarborough Shoal again, and indicating interest in Sabina Shoal (another potential site for China to create another artificial island).

-HomeFront-

USA: Demonstrations at universities continue with varying impact around the nation. Most encampment operations have been shut down at Ivy League institutions, but some persistent demonstrations/protests remain.

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Analyst Comments: The tensions in the South China Sea are above the typical baseline for the region, but fall short of exhibiting major immediate wartime indicators. However, it must be noted that China’s activities to increase the baseline of observable activity are a wartime goal; normalizing the militarization of the region is a valuable strategic advantage for China. As such, China will likely seek to continue expansion in the South China Sea, to the ire of other nations such as the Philippines. Of note, Germany has committed two additional ships to the region, and U.S. Navy freedom-of-navigation patrols have increased in response to China’s activities.

Analyst: S2A1

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