Today we had the pleasure of visiting with Max Layton, Global Head of Commodities Research at Citi. Prior to joining Citi in 2017, Max held notable leadership positions including Managing Director and Head of European Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs as well as Deputy Head of Commodities Research at Macquarie. We have been eager to examine copper’s recent record highs and were excited to have Max join us for a discussion on global commodity trends. In our conversation with Max, we discuss the current commodities landscape and significant trends that Max and his team are observing in the market. We explore the primary factors driving the copper surge, the impact of US Federal Reserve policies on global commodities markets, investment strategies for short-term cycles and long-term structural trends, and the most significant opportunities for growth and investment in the commodities market over the next few years. Max shares his perspective on China’s role in the energy transition and how China’s technological advancements impact the copper market, potential risks to the copper market from geopolitical events or changes in global trade policies, broader energy transition dynamics, and how the current state of the uranium market compares to other commodities. We cover how global economic trends and technological advancements might shape the copper market over the next decade, supply side challenges for copper, how speculative funds impact the copper market, the natural gas market in the US and globally, current trends driving gold prices, long-term oil market demand outlook, power prices and industrial activity, and more. It was fantastic to get Max’s perspective from his vantage point in London and as head of the global group. He and his team clearly see market developments and gather information from multiple unique angles. Thank you for joining, Max! Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting that this week could be a much slower news week for markets than prior weeks. On the economic front, he highlighted the 10-year yield was trading at ~4.45% yield and that there could be a bit of churn in bond yields this week due to lack of any real economic stats (outside of the FOMC meeting minutes). WTI remains stuck in a narrow trading band ($77-$81/bbl) even with the death of Iran’s President and Foreign Minister in a helicopter crash over the weekend. Front month copper contracts recently spiked above $5.00/lb. mostly due to a substantial increase in “NET” non-commercial future positions. Mike also noted that long-term copper fundamentals remain constructive due to Russian metals sanctions, global production cuts and mine closures (ex. Panama), all at a time when copper demand is set to accelerate. On the broader equity market front, the DJIA hit an all-time high (>40,000) as well as most other broader market indices. NVIDIA reports Q1 results on Wednesday (after the close) and could be a market moving event for broader markets and the Tech sector. He ended by noting that NVIDIA is the best performing S&P 500 Stock YTD (+90%), accounting for ~25% of S&P 500 gains in 2024, so the investor expectation bar is pretty elevated for NVIDIA. Brett Rampal also joined and added his perspective and inquiries to the discussion. Thanks to you all for your support and friendship!

Today we had the pleasure of welcoming back Alexander Zaslavsky, Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Horizon Engage. Alex established Horizon Engage in 2003 and specializes in energy politics in Russia and the former Soviet Union. Horizon Engage merges tech and geopolitical expertise to provide country insights, data on how sanctions and counter sanctions impact your business, security analysis and advisory solutions. To help navigate a meaty Russian/Central Asian/Middle Eastern geopolitical discussion, we called on our good friend Gabe Collins to jump in as a cohost. As you may know, Gabe is a Baker Botts Fellow in Energy and Environmental Regulatory Affairs at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. We were thrilled to visit with Alex and Gabe. In our discussion, we address various aspects of the ongoing war in Ukraine, including its impact on alliances and energy security in Europe, business takeovers in Russia following Western companies’ divestment from Russian subsidiaries, and the domestic impact of the conflict with what Gabe refers to as the “Wagnerization of Russia” where families are getting large cash payments for the service (and death) of their male soldiers. We explore the sustainability of Russia’s military endeavors and the potential for escalation, the intensity and effectiveness of Russia’s internal propaganda about the war, the lingering effect of Prigozhin’s legacy (and popularity with the Russian people), and the significance of Russian oil for the country’s economy and its role in funding the war effort. We discuss the Biden Administration’s approach in Ukraine which seems to fear a Russian loss as much as a Russian win, China’s industrial base and its support for Russia in the conflict, the effectiveness of Western sanctions against Russia and lack of real enforcement, potential NATO actions, and geopolitical considerations with COP29 set to be hosted in Azerbaijan. Alex provides insights into potential outcomes of the conflict in Ukraine, geopolitical dynamics and alliances in the region, strategic considerations of Western powers regarding their approach to Russia, the influence of financial institutions like the World Bank, the many mistakes both sides have made in all this, and much more. It was an engaging discussion that highlighted the complexity of geopolitical and economic factors at play. Thank you to Alex and Gabe for joining! Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that most markets this week are focused on one item and that’s the April CPI print due to report on Wednesday morning. On the economic front, Tuesday’s April PPI printed much hotter than expected and the 10-year bond yield unexpectedly decreased to end the day at ~4.45%. On the commodity front, he noted the spike in near-month copper futures to an all-time high (>$5/lb.). He also noted the copper curve has recently shifted from long held contango to a steep backwardation structure which is likely due to a near-month contract squeeze and improving S/D fundamentals. On the broader equity market front, equities so far this week have traded sideways in anticipation of Wednesday’s CPI print which likely could lead to elevated equity market volatility for the remainder of the week. He ended by highlighting the progression of ten stats (bond, commodity and equity) since Alexander’s previous COBT appearance in December 2021. For our COBT history buffs, today’s episode marks Alex’s fourth guest appearance on COBT. He previously joined on December 7, 2021 (episode linked here), May 19, 2020 (episode linked here) and first on April 7, 2020 (episode linked here). Today’s episode also marks Gabe’s third guest appearance; he previously joined on August 23, 2023 (episode linked " rel="nofollow">

For today’s discussion we were pleased to host Jim Matheson, CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA). Jim’s distinguished background includes roles in both the public and private sectors. Prior to joining the NRECA in 2016, he served in the public policy practice at Squire Patton Boggs based in Washington, D.C. Jim was elected as a U.S. Representative for Utah from 2001 to 2015 and has significant experience in the energy industry. The NRECA is a vital national service organization representing over 900 consumer-owned electric cooperatives, collectively serving 42 million people across 48 states in the US. We were excited to visit with Jim and gain valuable insights into the cooperative landscape. Jim first provides background on the unique structure of electric cooperatives, how they are owned by the members they serve, and focus on consumer interest rather than shareholder interests (a detailed overview of US electric co-ops is linked here). We explore how electric co-ops approach decision making regarding power systems to balance cost, reliability, and emissions reduction, the evolving generation mix, the shrinking margin of error in meeting peak demand and the increasing risk of outages, and the US’s struggle to keep up with building new power plants while also shutting down existing ones prematurely. Jim shares his perspective on the need for increased resiliency in the electric grid, particularly through the expansion of transmission infrastructure, and concerns with the feasibility and economic impact of recent EPA regulations targeting emissions reduction from coal and natural gas plants (details linked here). We discuss potential bipartisan efforts to revise permitting and streamline processes, growing awareness among the public on power issues, election year dynamics, the benefits of natural gas as a fuel source for electricity generation, the need for continued vigilance around cybersecurity measures in the electricity sector, the possibility of bipartisan efforts to prioritize energy security and reliability, and more. We greatly appreciate the work Jim and the team at NRECA are doing. Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that markets have been choppy this past week but managed to get by with modest gains. The 10-year bond yield has plunged to ~4.45%, down from ~4.7%, just one week ago. Bond yields dropped despite the FOMC leaving interest rates unchanged, mostly because Chairman Powell signaled the next rate move would likely not be a rate hike. WTI price this past week had collapsed ~5/bbl due to a large increase in US crude oil inventories, less concern over Mideast chaos, and WTI trading through important technical trading levels. Crude oil traders seem to firmly believe that OPEC will not announce they’re putting barrels back into the market at their June 1st meeting, especially at sub-~80/bbl. Natural gas is trading at its highest level since early January, mostly due to the monthly futures contract roll. The US natural gas storage surplus is still high, but lower 48 natural gas production is falling faster than expected and recently averaged less than 99bcfd. Most S&P companies have reported Q1 results, and so broader markets will need to look elsewhere for direction. Broader markets have rallied recently as they’re less worried today about higher interest rates and higher commodity prices. He further noted that broader markets recently have had a nice bounce because they were technically oversold, and volatility had spiked but are now moving towards overbought territory again. He ended by flagging most energy companies have reported Q1 results and this week will be a heavy dose of SMID-cap E&Ps, Global Oil Majors

Today we had the pleasure of hosting David Holt, President of the Consumer Energy Alliance (CEA), for an important discussion on electricity affordability and reliability for consumers. David’s background is in government affairs with over thirty years of experience working for state and federal agencies and directing outreach and advocacy efforts. The CEA will be celebrating its 20th anniversary in 2025 and has nearly 400 corporate members and over 550,000 individual members representing families, farmers, small businesses, distributors, labor organizations, manufacturers, and energy providers. Beyond his leadership at the CEA, David also serves as Managing Partner of HBW Resources, a consultancy specializing in strategic planning and government affairs in the energy, transportation, and environmental sectors. We were thrilled to have the opportunity to visit with David. In our conversation, David first provides background on the CEA and the groups they represent as well as their “all of the above” approach to meeting energy needs in an affordable, reliable, and sustainable manner. David shares his perspective on the impact of energy policies on prices, concerns with reliability, how energy policy has become overly politicized with a focus on environmental aspects at the expense of affordability and reliability, the role of inflation in the current energy landscape, and the need for increased investment in natural gas infrastructure. We discuss permitting and signaling issues, regulatory framework and regional differences between oil and gas and the electricity sector, factors contributing to the increase in electricity prices, identifying reliable sources of information for understanding energy costs, policy implications, and environmental impacts, and strategies for educating and mobilizing consumers to advocate for their interests in energy policy decisions. We explore voter influence on policy, the role of US oil and natural gas production in moderating global oil prices, the future of the CEA, the challenges of getting the public’s attention on energy and power issues, the CEA’s reaction to recent policies including the IRA, and more. David was a fantastic guest and we greatly enjoyed the conversation. Mike Bradley highlighted a few topics to kick us off. He noted the 10-year government bond yield looks to have found some temporary support at 4.65% and flagged that this could be an unusually volatile trading week for markets (especially bonds) given that both the JOLTS Job Openings Report and FOMC Rate Decision will be taking place on Wednesday. WTI (~$82/bbl) has pulled back recently on the news of a temporary cooling in Mideast tension; nevertheless, he noted that the 2024 crude oil S/D setup still looks very constructive. Q1 earnings for the Magnificent Seven tech stocks will be winding up this week and investor focus will begin shifting to the other 60% of the S&P 500 for near-term direction. On the energy equity front, over seventy energy and electric utility companies will be reporting Q1 results this week with a heavy focus on E&P, Midstream & Electric Utility companies. He ended by flagging that electricity growth will be a more widely discussed topic/theme across most of the reporting energy and electric companies, just as it has been for industrial companies so far in the Q1 reporting season. Todd Scruggs prepped us for our discussion with David by sharing data on electricity costs across the United States. Comparing recent data from February and last summer, he found that California and Northeastern states consistently pay the most, while the West South-Central region pays the least, even during peak summer months. We look forward to following the CEA’s progress and will be sure to share their state electricity scorecards when they’re launched. Thank you again to David for joining and thanks to you all for your support and friendship!

Today we had the pleasure of hosting David Sacks, Fellow for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), for a comprehensive discussion on China and the intricate dynamics of US-China, US-Taiwan, and cross-Strait relations. Prior to joining the CFR in 2017, David served at the American Institute in Taiwan focused on political military affairs. David’s research spans Asia, China, Taiwan, defense and security, as well as political history and theory including the political thought of Hans Morgenthau. The CFR is an independent think-tank and publisher committed to providing insights into global affairs and serves as a resource for its members and the broader public in navigating the complexities of international relations. We have been interested for quite some time in finding an expert on China and were thrilled to visit with David. In our conversation, David first shares background on China’s evolving role globally and the changing dynamics of US-China relations, the security-related and economic implications of conflict between China and Taiwan, the challenges in managing tensions in the Taiwan Strait, escalating tensions in the South China Sea, US-China rivalry in the region and its effects on maritime activity, and China’s assertive foreign policy under Xi Jinping’s leadership and its implications for global power dynamics. David shares his perspective on similarities and differences between the Trump and Biden Administrations’ approaches to China, the feasibility and implications of decoupling from China economically and the interdependence between the US and China in the global economy, the potential for future leadership changes in China, and how other countries are responding to China’s assertiveness including how European perceptions and policies towards China have evolved. We explore China’s economic and demographic outlook and the country’s overall strengths and weaknesses, potential implications if China were to become weaker in the next 10-20 years, the potential export of low-cost EVs from China, trust issues in US-China relations, Taiwan’s perspective and defense strategies, the CFR’s role in international diplomacy, and much more. Thank you, David, for sharing your insights with us all! We learned a tremendous amount and could have gone another hour we were so intrigued with the conversation. Mike Bradley kicked us off with a few updates. He noted the 10-year government bond yield looks to have found some temporary support at ~4.6% but will likely move on Friday’s PCE deflator report. WTI (~$83/bbl) pulled back this past week on what looks to be temporary cooling in Mideast tension. Oil trader sentiment seems to have shifted to one that could be underestimating future geopolitical risks, which could send oil prices materially higher, and force OPEC to push barrels back into the market. Q4 earnings are kicking into high gear with ~35% of S&P 500 companies reporting this week, which should result in elevated broader market trading volatility. S&P 500 relative strength has recently reversed from overbought to oversold levels, and S&P 500 volatility has also spiked to 1-year highs. On the energy equity front, he highlighted that Q1 results are also beginning to kick into high gear with a barrage of results from E&Ps, Oil Majors, Oil Services & Refiners. Electric Utilities were by far the best performing S&P sector last week and there will be many companies reporting this week. He ended by discussing YTD Asian equity market performance, noting that Japan and Taiwan are the top two regional equity market performers. Arjun Murti discussed the concept of geopolitical risk premiums in oil prices, noting three key factors: structural changes in major producers, civil strife causing production fluctuations and difficult forecasting, and the impact of war. Sharing examples for each element, he noted the complex nature of geopolitical risk and its influence on s

Today we were delighted to host Matt Parker, Managing Director and Head of Strategy, alongside Alex Melvin, Commodity Risk Analyst, with Mobius Risk Group for an extensive discussion on commodity and power markets, as well as volatility and risk management in particular. Matt joined Mobius in 2018 and oversees fundamental analytics, decision strategies, financial trading, and physical marketing teams. Alex is the author of Mobius’ Intel Briefs and Energy Shots research and brings prior experience in data analysis and technical writing. Mobius Risk Group is a risk advisory firm offering market guidance to producers, consumers, and capital market participants, influencing transactions totaling over $100B across more than 50 commodities annually. We were thrilled to visit with Matt and Alex. The catalyst to our discussion stems from a report Mobius recently released titled “Eclipse Power Prices Hit $471/MWh: Tracking the Texas grid during the 2024 Total Solar Eclipse” (linked here). Matt and Alex first share background on the Mobius team and their research, natural gas market volatility and its impact on hedging strategies for producers and consumers, and the role of speculators in commodity markets and the influence on pricing dynamics. We explore factors influencing the growth of LNG markets and its implications for energy markets, the challenges and opportunities in renewable energy variability and its impact on grid stability, and regional energy market dynamics, including the reluctance to build pipelines and storage facilities on the West and East Coasts of the US. We discuss key themes from the Eclipse report including the inspiration behind writing the report, storage dynamics and the impact of gas prices on production, the potential shift towards LNG as a solution to market imbalances, the effectiveness of market mechanisms versus centralized control in addressing energy challenges, how consumers are adapting to increased volatility in gas prices, efforts by gas producers to manage volatility in prices and production decisions, the potential for increased gas exports to Mexico, risk management strategy differences between public and private companies, and much more. Thanks to Matt and Alex for joining us today! Mike Bradley started the show by highlighting this week’s spike in the 10-year government bond yield to ~4.65%, mostly due to a hot Retail Sales report on Monday. He noted the next big economic report will be Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, and if that report prints hotter than expected, odds for a rate cut (anytime soon) would appear very low. On the commodity front, Brent (~$90/bbl) & WTI (~$85/bbl) prices barely budged on the recent Iranian/Israeli conflict, mostly because it was pretty well announced, and to a certain degree already dialed into oil prices. A 2H’24 global oil S/D deficit could position OPEC to begin adding back barrels into the market, potentially as early as June. On the broader equity market front, equities continue to take their cue from interest rate volatility, potential additional Mideast conflict, and Q1 EPS results. Q1 earnings season has begun (with mixed results) and it’s important, given lofty valuations, that S&P companies deliver solid Q1 results and guidance. He ended by flagging that Q1 energy results begin this week with Kinder Morgan and Liberty Energy reporting on Wednesday and SLB on Friday. Liberty Energy should provide investors with an early glimpse of U.S. pressure pumping dynamics while the SLB call should be predominately focused on international and offshore growth. Todd Scruggs emphasized recent analysis from Mobius regarding global coal generation, particularly in China, India, and Indonesia, and compared it to renewable energy development in the US. Globally, approximately 50 GW of coal capacity was added, while the US saw an addition of around 30

Today we were thrilled to be joined by Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), to discuss a critical yet often ignored topic: the US national debt and budget deficits. Prior to her tenure at the CRFB starting in 2004, Maya served at the Brookings Institution and on Wall Street. Maya is a native Washingtonian, Harvard Kennedy School alumni, and frequently testifies before Congress as a leading budget expert. Founded in 1981, the CRFB is a bipartisan nonprofit dedicated to educating the public on issues with significant fiscal policy impact. The organization offers independent policy analysis, engages with policymakers to improve the country’s fiscal and economic condition, and serves as an educational resource. At over 100% of GDP and in the range of the all-time high last seen during World War 2, the US national debt looms large as a significant macroeconomic and overall risk factor to the nation and the world. We were so excited to hear Maya’s insights on this very important and very complex subject. In our conversation, Maya shares historical context on past efforts to address fiscal issues and how interest in fiscal policy has fluctuated (from Ross Perot to Simpson-Bowles to today), the current economic situation, the impact of recent events like COVID-19 on government borrowing and spending, how the increase in interest rates has highlighted the structural nature of the problem and gained the public’s attention, and the current polarizing political environment and how it has halted efforts to address fiscal challenges. We discuss the responsibility of political leaders to acknowledge and address long-term budget concerns, challenges with addressing entitlement programs including Social Security and Medicaid, political leaders’ refusal to address issues that are headed towards trust fund insolvency, proposed solutions including establishing a fiscal commission to tackle the issue comprehensively, the idea of inflating away the debt or selling assets to reduce the debt, major threats posed by the growing national debt including loss of fiscal space, economic slowdown, national security risks and intergenerational inequity, and much more. We covered a great deal of territory and can’t thank Maya enough for joining. As you will hear, we offered to help Maya in any way we can, including helping her salute the “fiscal heroes” who are leaning in and trying to make a difference.   Mike Bradley kicked us off by flagging that this is an extremely important week for markets given both the March CPI and PPI will be released on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, and that if these stats print hotter-than-expected, the FED will not be cutting rates anytime soon. He noted markets may be underestimating inflation given sharp YTD gains in a variety of commodities. On the commodity front, WTI is trading at ~$86/bbl (highest level since Oct’23), WTI time spreads continue to trade in huge backwardation and the 2H’24 oil S/D deficit positions OPEC to push barrels back into the market. He noted that even though we remain pretty constructive with the 2H’24 crude oil setup, we’re a bit concerned the recent crude oil bullishness is becoming too consensus. On the broader equity market front, equities continue to take their cue from both interest rates and an obsession with AI equities. If CPI and PPI readings print cooler-than-expected, it will result in a huge bond and broader equity market rally. This Friday will also be a heavy Q4 reporting week for U.S. major banks. He ended by highlighting that Exxon Mobil Corp. recently hit an all-time stock price high and that its market-cap and enterprise values (~$500B) finally rebounded back to their late-2007 levels. In late 2007, energy’s weighting as a percentage of the S&P 500 was ~13% (peaked at ~16% in mid-2008) and today is at ~4%, leaving the energy sector plenty more room to run in the years ahead. Arjun Murti dis

Today we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend Derek Podhaizer, Vice President of Equity Research at Barclays. Derek started his research career at the firm in 2014 and leads coverage of U.S. Onshore Energy Services and Geothermal. Given the recent flurry of activity within the services sector, including Tuesday’s SLB-ChampionX announcement (linked here), it was fantastic to hear Derek’s observations on the space including overall investor sentiment, emerging trends in services and geothermal, and investor perception and feedback. In our conversation with Derek, we discuss the significant changes in energy services over the past decade, transitioning from a boom-and-bust cycle to a focus on capital discipline and shareholder returns, M&A themes driving consolidation in the oilfield services sector, primarily driven by supply rationalization and synergistic services, and the importance of cultural integration in M&A transactions. Derek shares current trends including emerging and growing power solutions businesses, growing interest in geothermal energy among oilfield service companies, the potential for a divergent market in companies providing integrated solutions compared to others, and how total cost of ownership and efficiency drives investor confidence and differentiation among service providers. We discuss long-term value creation in energy services, Barclay’s research department and coverage, technological advances and production efficiencies, excitement for the potential of geothermal energy to become a significant contributor to the energy mix, investor interest in geothermal, and more. We ended by asking Derek for his thoughts on the state of the energy transition discussion from his vantage point in New York. Thank you for joining, Derek! Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that Monday’s ISM Manufacturing report and Tuesday’s JOLTS Job Openings reports both surpassed expectations, which pushed the 10-year government bond yield to a YTD high of ~4.35%. He noted the current consensus for multiple interest rate cuts (starting in June) is getting challenged by recent strong economic prints, continued record U.S. budget deficits, strengthening energy commodities and accelerating future power demand growth. WTI is trading at ~$85/bbl, marking its highest level since October 2023 and crude oil is continuing to show signs of real physical tightness as WTI time spreads are trading at their steepest level of backwardation since June 2022. OPEC is meeting this Wednesday and most traders expect them to signal continued production constraint through Q2’24. He further noted that OPEC looks to be in full control of crude markets and that the global oil S/D setup looks very constructive heading into 2H’24, both of which should position OPEC to add barrels into an undersupplied global oil market in 2H’24. On the broader equity market front, over the last few days markets have been pressured due to an unexpected surge in interest rates. Tesla was also weighing on markets due to its disappointing Q1 deliveries and providing further proof that U.S. electric vehicle sales are facing some temporary demand headwinds. He ended by highlighting SLB’s agreement to buy ChampionX in an all-stock deal and also noted the solid YTD performance of Oil Services. Jeff Tillery noted the unique dynamics of M&A in energy services and the operational intricacies involved, segueing into our conversation with Derek. It was great luck to have Derek on a day when a major transaction was announced in oilfield services. The OFS space remains super intriguing for its ability to range across classic as well as new energy technologies. We look forward to staying in touch with Derek and thank you, as always, for your friendship!

We had a fantastic session today with Jun Nishizawa, Executive Vice President and CEO of the Natural Gas Group at Mitsubishi Corporation. Jun joined Mitsubishi Corporation in 1986 as an oil trader and has since held a variety of roles in Tokyo and overseas. As CEO of the Natural Gas Group, Jun is responsible for Mitsubishi Corporation’s LNG business globally and leads the execution of the organization’s decarbonization strategy including the company’s involvement in the Breakthrough Energy Catalyst founded by Bill Gates. It was our pleasure to host Jun to discuss Mitsubishi Corporation’s LNG effort and the evolving trends in the global LNG landscape. Jun first provides background on the massive scale of Mitsubishi Corporation and its various businesses spanning energy, mining, automobiles, infrastructure, and more. We cover Mitsubishi Corporation’s LNG business and the company’s role in establishing the LNG market in Japan in the 1960s, the current LNG market in Japan, attitudes in Japan toward natural gas, nuclear and renewables, the potential for ammonia as a cleaner alternative for power plants and shipping, and Mitsubishi Corporation’s interest in E-LNG. Jun shares insights into the growth trajectory of the LNG market globally, projected LNG demand, factors influencing LNG supply, the impact of AI on power demand and productivity gains, Japan’s energy security and geopolitical concerns, and the importance of long-term LNG contracts. We discuss the role of the US as a reliable energy partner for Japan and other Asian countries, how Mitsubishi Corporation is incorporating AI into its operations across different sectors, and the need for continued investment in LNG energy infrastructure. We end by discussing Jun’s upcoming retirement plans to join the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) as a Visiting Fellow. Thank you for joining, Nishizawa-san, and all the best for your next chapter! Mike Bradley kicked us off by noting the bond market’s focus on the February PCE Deflator, which is expected to be around 2.5%. Despite the Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates last week and signal three quarter-point rate cuts in 2024, lingering cyclical and secular inflation concerns persist. WTI is finding trading support above $80/bbl and crude oil time spreads continue to remain in steep backwardation due to tight physical crude markets. Additionally, the IEA’s reversal of its 2024 global crude oil stance from surplus to deficit provided further support to crude oil prices. However, U.S. natural gas price continues to stay pressured due to a surplus of ~690bcf and severe damage to a key East Coast bridge in Baltimore will temporarily curtail coal and crude product exports. The S&P energy sector is up ~11% YTD and is outpacing the S&P 500 & Nasdaq despite AI dominating broader market sentiment. Mike also noted high-level takeaways from CERAWeek including an energy transition conversation that’s becoming much more balanced/pragmatic, a substantial number of AI discussions/panels, a considerable amount of “global” electricity load growth discussions, a more constructive energy commodity demand outlook, and an extensive amount of U.S. permitting conversations. He ended by highlighting that the Japanese stock market (Nikkei) is trading at an all-time high and noted that the last time the Nikkei traded at these levels was in December 1989 (35 years ago). Jeff Tillery shared his top takeaways from CERAWeek related to Asia and the energy transition, leading into our conversation with Jun. Thanks to you all. We hope you enjoy today’s session as much as we did. Arigatou gozaimasu Nishizawa-san!

We are thrilled to share this Special Edition COBT episode featuring Peter Orszag, CEO of Lazard. Peter assumed the role as Lazard CEO in the fall of 2023, after serving as CEO of Lazard’s Financial Advisory business. Prior to his tenure at Lazard, Peter’s wide-ranging career includes serving as Director of the Office of Management and Budget and as Director of the Congressional Budget Office during the Obama Administration. Peter also served as Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy in the Clinton Administration and Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution. Mike Bradley, Jeff Tillery and I were pleased to host Peter and hear his unique insights from his experience spanning both public service and private enterprise. Peter recently co-authored an OpEd for Foreign Affairs entitled “Geopolitics in the C-Suite” (linked here) that explores how corporations are increasingly struggling with geopolitical complexity, an area which impacts capital allocation and long-range investment decisions. In our conversation, we cover main themes from the article, global macroeconomic trends, managing a global corporation like Lazard amidst geopolitical challenges, the potential for a “US-EU Super Bloc” and missed opportunities for collaboration in trade and energy strategies, structural challenges facing Chinese economic growth, and the impacts of political polarization on foreign policy. We discuss shifting dynamics in the Middle East, implications of the Chevron deference case (additional information here), factors influencing M&A and restructuring activity, the integration of AI in various industries, Lazard’s Power, Energy & Infrastructure team/effort, CFIUS, and overall antitrust activity. Peter shares his perspective on managing information overload, the challenge of addressing long-term US national debt, differences he’s noticed between public and private sector planning timelines, and much more. We end by discussing Lazard’s vision for 2030 and their “Banker-Scholar” culture. It was a fascinating discussion. For additional reading, Lazard’s 2023 Annual Letter to Shareholders is linked here and Lazard’s report on Top Geopolitical Trends in 2024 is linked here. For further watching, we have previously hosted two Lazard guests on COBT: George Bilicic, Vice Chairman and Global Head of Power Energy & Infrastructure (May 3, 2023 linked here) and Admiral William McRaven, Senior Advisor (July 28, 2020 linked here). We hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did! Thank you again to Peter for joining. Our best to you all.

Today we had the honor of hosting Mike Wirth, Chairman and CEO of Chevron. Mike’s journey at Chevron began as a design engineer in 1982 and since then, he has held senior leadership roles in several divisions of the company. Most recently, Mike served as the Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors and as Executive Vice President of Midstream and Development before assuming his role as CEO in 2018. Beyond his role at Chevron, Mike is engaged in industry advocacy and global initiatives, serving on the board of directors of Catalyst, as an Executive Committee Member of the American Petroleum Institute, and as an Executive Committee Member of the World Economic Forum International Business Council, among other notable roles. With CERAWeek in full swing in Houston, we were fortunate to sit down with Mike to explore the current energy landscape, global energy dynamics, the future of energy, and of course, activity at CERAWeek. In our conversation with Mike, we discuss the changing tone and focus of energy conversations and the pragmatic and realistic tone at CERAWeek, Mike’s background in engineering and its influence on his leadership style and decision-making processes, the importance of understanding customer needs and preferences in the energy sector, and the evaluation of investments that rely on subsidies. Mike shares his perspective on the integration of cultures during mergers and acquisitions, the importance of fostering collaboration and alignment while preserving the strengths of acquired companies, the future of exploration in meeting global energy needs, the evolution of shale innovation, current geopolitical risks, trends in government intervention, inflationary pressures, energy access in developing countries, and his perspective on recent developments surrounding Chevron’s acquisition of Hess Corporation. We discuss corporate net zero pledges and the often underestimated complexities involved, the overall desirability of more engineers and more problem-solving thinking, the evolving power landscape, Chevron’s capabilities in lower carbon energy and technologies, America as an energy superpower and how to maintain that status, and much more. We had a great visit with Mike and can’t thank him enough for his time and thoughtfulness. He is an exceptional spokesman for sound energy thinking. To start the show, Mike Bradley shared his thoughts on three key events this week. Regarding CERAWeek 2024 where Veriten is an industry partner (details here), he noted themes are focused on AI, electricity, energy transition, hydrogen and permitting, with AI and electricity being mentioned in just about every conversation. US power needs are being underestimated and the energy transition discussion seems to be turning much more pragmatic. NVIDIA introduced its newest processor (Blackwell) at their conference on Monday. Expectations for NVIDIA and tech stocks were extremely elevated heading into the conference. The third key event is Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting. Mike noted that it’s virtually guaranteed the FED will keep rates unchanged given recent inflation stats printed on the hot side. Markets will be focused on Chairman Powell’s comments which could provide a clue on the number of future rate cuts. On the commodity front, last week was the first weekly close for WTI above $80/bbl since November 2023. WTI trades at ~$83/bbl as US crude oil inventories declined last week and will be drawing in the weeks ahead. He also noted that Gunvor indicated this week that Ukrainian drone strikes have damaged ~600kbpd of Russian refineries, which has strengthened crude oil and product markets. WTI time spreads continue moving steeper into backwardation, and if WTI holds above its $80/bbl support, it could reverse extreme “bearish” oil trader sentiment. He ended by noting that energy as a percentage of the S&P 500 should increase given that energy transition conversation is turning much more pragmatic, that global e

It was our privilege today to welcome Paul Dabbar, CEO of Bohr Quantum Technology. In addition to his position at Bohr, Paul is a Senior Research Scholar and Distinguished Visiting Fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a Board Member of Dominion Energy, and a Contributor to the Wall Street Journal. Paul’s distinguished career in the energy sector spans several significant roles including his tenure as the Under Secretary for Science at the US Department of Energy from 2017 to 2021. Prior to that, he held senior finance and strategy roles at JP Morgan and he is also a nuclear marine officer and graduate of the US Naval Academy. We were delighted to visit with Paul. Our discussion centered on a recent piece Paul wrote for the Hoover Institution entitled “US Energy Superpower Status and a New US Energy Diplomacy” (linked here). The report examines how US energy diplomacy should shift to a more positive and powerful tone given the country’s achievements in the industry in the past decade and its newfound status as the global energy superpower. In our conversation with Paul, we cover key themes from his report, the concept of an “all of the above” energy policy and the importance of balancing energy production, prices, emissions, and national security, the potential for collaboration between the US, Canada, and Norway, anticipated growth in electricity demand, strategies for developing countries in meeting their energy demand while reducing reliance on coal, and the benefits of the US partnering with other countries in offering both traditional energy resources and new technologies with lower carbon intensity. We discuss whether explicit carbon reduction goals are necessary, the effectiveness of innovation-led strategy, the government’s role in supporting energy innovation, national security concerns particularly with regards to importing EVs and other energy-related technologies, Paul’s perspective on reforming the IRA, the coordination of energy policy across various government agencies, and much more. It was a wide ranging and fascinating discussion. Thank you for joining, Paul!  Mike Bradley kicked us off by discussing the February CPI report, noting it was hotter than expected but had little impact on broader energy markets. Bitcoin and broader energy markets continue to be in a “risk-on-mode” driven by consensus of a soft-landing U.S. economic scenario and seem less focused on interest rates and more focused on AI/big tech euphoria. WTI continues to be relatively rangebound, crude oil time spreads have pulled back modestly but still remain in steep backwardation, and OPEC reiterated its previous 2024 demand growth forecast of 2.2mmbpd. In natural gas, prompt and the 12-month natural gas strip have pulled back modestly, U.S. natural gas storage this week increased to >30% above normal, and lower 48 dry gas production has decreased due to continued producer cutbacks. Mike also highlighted Shell’s upcoming Energy Transition Report, the UK’s allowance for new natural gas generation into the 2030s, and that data centers are desperate for power and could look at natural gas power generation as part of their power mix. He mentioned the EQT Corp and Equitran’s Midstream merger and suggested that U.S. natural gas demand estimates may be underestimated given data center and C&I growth. Arjun Murti built on the themes Mike raised and emphasized the need for a healthier energy evolution that aligns policies with the necessity of meeting unmet energy needs while addressing environmental concerns and the evolving role of traditional energy in power generation. We hope you all enjoy the discussion as much as we did. Our best to you all!

Today we had the pleasure of welcoming back Jigar Shah, Director of the U.S. Department of Energy Loan Programs Office (LPO). Jigar joined the LPO in 2021 and is the former founder of SunEdison and former co-founder of Generate Capital. As you may know, the LPO is equipped with more than $400 billion in loans and loan guarantees to help deploy innovative clean energy, advanced transportation, and Tribal energy projects in the US that support a cleaner and stronger energy economy. With 205 active applications and an average of 2.1 new applications per week, they are busier than ever. We were thrilled to visit with Jigar for an insightful update on the LPO’s progress and preview of the LPO’s planned activities at CERAWeek. In our discussion, we touch on growing electricity demand and the utility loan applications the LPO has received focused on demand flexibility, grid enhancement technologies, and virtual power plants. Jigar shares his perspective on increasing interest in geothermal, nuclear and next generation hydro projects, the cost of new energy infrastructure and the impact on electricity affordability, team developments at the LPO, carbon capture and sequestration projects, EPA regulations and their impact on energy plants (particularly coal plants), tech companies’ focus on securing sufficient power for their operations to meet their growing power demands (see link to AWS Talen story from this week here), and market dynamics in methane detection and reduction technologies. We discuss the critical importance of permitting reform and the LPO’s connectivity with permitting-related government offices, the Presidential election’s potential impact on the LPO, financing mechanisms and the LPO’s interest rates, and much more. Jigar is such a fun and upbeat guy and we always enjoy a visit with him. We also appreciate that he'll field any question we throw his way, especially our questions about the inner workings of Washington DC. Thank you, Jigar! Mike Bradley started the show by noting that this week was a light economic week with the January JOLTS Job Openings report being most watched. On the broader equity market front, AI euphoria seemingly pushes equities to new highs every week, but this week has witnessed a bit of a pullback. WTI has pulled back marginally, but still trades at the high end of its 3-month trading range. OPEC extended its 2mmbpd of production cuts through Q2’24. Physical crude markets seem tight given WTI time spreads continue to trade in steep backwardation. The 12-month natural gas strip is trading up from $2.55/MMBtu to $2.85/MMBtu on news that EQT Corp has made a strategic decision to curtail ~1bcfpd of gross production through the end of March (link here). Over the last 2 weeks, lower 48 natural gas production has averaged ~2bcfpd lower than in prior weeks. On the utility sector front, he highlighted the staggering 5-year capex plans being laid out on electricity utility Q4 calls. He noted the massive YTD performance of a handful of nuclear levered electricity equities, which look to be getting rerated markedly higher (by generalist investors) due to a more robust long-term earnings growth profile and the increasing likelihood of securing lucrative long-term datacenter electricity deals. He also noted that in time, the utility sector could also be rerated higher as investors begin viewing them more as growth stocks. Jeff Tillery and Brett Rampal also joined and added their perspectives and inquiries to the discussion with Jigar. For our COBT history buffs, today’s episode marks Jigar’s third guest appearance on COBT. He previously joined on Feb. 27, 2023 (episode linked " rel="nofollow">

Today we were thrilled to welcome our good friend Pat Wood, CEO of Hunt Energy Network. Pat’s extensive career in power and energy includes serving as Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and Chairman of the Public Utility Commission of Texas during the administration of President George W. Bush. Additionally, he has held several independent director and advisor roles in solar, power, and utility-related organizations. Pat is also a civil engineer Aggie who went and got a Harvard law degree. Perhaps that’s why he calls himself an armadillo – someone who likes the middle of the road! Under Pat’s leadership, Hunt Energy Network has deployed a portfolio of distributed power assets across Texas. The organization aims to reach a portfolio of 1,000 MWs of batteries and peaker generation attached to the ERCOT grid by 2026. It was our pleasure to host Pat and hear insights from his unique perspective as a former regulator turned industry executive. Pat first provides background on the Hunt Energy Network, the organization’s focus on decentralized power solutions including battery deployment and peaker generation, and the role of gas peaker plants in the energy grid to meet sudden spikes in demand. Pat shares his perspective on the complexities and challenges of managing energy infrastructure, the transition from a regulated utility business to a market-driven approach during his tenure at the PUC, the historical context of power prices, the role of subsidies and ongoing debate surrounding their effectiveness, and the need for innovative thinking and proactive measures to address growing demand for electricity. We touch on market approaches to integrating new technologies into the energy sector, the importance of having a diverse portfolio of power-generating technologies to meet future demands, economic implications of energy policy decisions, the effectiveness of market-driven approaches versus government-led initiatives in shaping energy systems, investing in cybersecurity and grid resilience to protect against potential threats, and much more. Before we wrapped up, we talked about states and countries around the world and the building blocks of getting power policy right. Overall, Pat did exactly what we really needed today as he supplied plenty of optimism and humor in an area (power) lacking in both these days. For some additional power thinking, please click here for a chart Pat provided showing estimated US energy sources, consumption, and “lost energy” from 2021. Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting this week was a relatively light week for economic stats, with the PCE deflator release being the only real stat that traders seemed focused on. Broader markets continue to set new weekly highs but could lose some trading momentum in coming weeks given that Q4 earnings (especially AI and Big Tech) are essentially done. On the crude oil market front, he highlighted that WTI (~$79/bbl) is trading at the upper-end of its recent 3–4-month trading range despite large U.S. crude oil inventory builds from historically low seasonal refining runs, but that it will reverse in coming weeks. He noted that physical crude markets have tightened as WTI crude oil time spreads have moved into steep backwardation, and are now trading at levels last seen in October 2023, when WTI price was trading at ~$90/bbl. He flagged that nat gas prompt price has completely reversed gains post Chesapeake Energy’s production cut announcement last week and that the 12-month natural gas strip has rallied, since that announcement, on an expectation that 2024 lower-48 natural gas production will be several bcf per day lower heading into summer. In energy news, he noted energy sector Q4 reporting was essentially complete and also noted another mid-sized E&P merger announcement from last week. He wrapped by h

One of the issues that we have become fascinated with over the last couple of years is power: power availability, power costs, power reliability, growth in demand for power, and the overall complexity of our power systems. We’ve also become extremely interested in how these power issues are meaningfully affecting states, countries and industries. With all of that in mind, we read with particular interest recent publications from today’s COBT guest, Susan Shelley, Columnist and Member of the Editorial Board for the Southern California News Group. Susan covers local, state and national issues across eleven daily papers including the Los Angeles Daily News, the Orange County Register, the Riverside Press-Enterprise and the Long Beach Press-Telegram. Much of the energy transition discussion is around decarbonization and economic justice, extremely important and complicated topics. What is often missing is an examination of the costs of various decarbonization alternatives and the ways in which those choices could be hitting different segments of society. On today’s COBT, we greatly enjoyed discussing with Susan California’s power choices and talking about their costs and their debatable benefits. As we talked to Susan, one thing we reflected on is that everyone loves California. It’s beautiful, it’s creative, it’s a huge part of the US economy and has been a historical driver of innovation from Hollywood to Silicon Valley. In our discussion, we touch on one of Susan’s recent articles entitled "Why California’s Electricity Is So Expensive" (linked here), the disconnect between the perceived benefits of green energy policies and the reality of high energy costs for Californians, and how Californians are reacting to rising energy costs, with some leaving the state due to affordability issues. We discuss California’s political landscape and recent legislation, the solar energy market and how fixed charges for electricity may disincentivize solar investment among residents, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), leaders in the environmental community, utility and infrastructure management, and advocacy for transparency regarding the costs of climate policies. With California planning to outlaw sales of new combustion engine cars by 2035 and to be fully powered by renewable energy by 2045, we reflected on whether California is "leading or lagging" when it comes to power choices. We also took a minute to ask Susan for her outlook for California in ten years. Overall, we are hopeful that California will find a better balance between hitting climate goals and providing affordable and reliable energy and power for their residents and their industry. The current path doesn’t feel sustainable. To kick us off, Mike Bradley noted this coming week would be notably lighter on economic stats versus last week which saw hotter than expected CPI & PPI prints. On the broader equity market front, he flagged that trading this week would be dominated by quarterly results from Nvidia (NVDA), which likely set the tone for broader markets, the tech sector, and AI levered equities. He highlighted that WTI price increased to the upper end of its 3-month trading range and that DOE inventory stats in the coming weeks likely show continued large crude oil builds on historically low refining runs but will likely then reverse. He noted prompt price has declined to ~$1.55/M and the 12-month strip to ~$2.40/M and further noted that most natural gas E&Ps break-even price is above the current strip, and as such, have lowered their 2024 capex guidance. This coming week will be a heavy Q4 reporting week for E&Ps and Oil Service, and investors will be closely monitoring 2024 capex plans. He wrapped by highlighting Intuiti

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Fred Hutchison, President and CEO of LNG Allies, for a comprehensive discussion on an important and timely topic, LNG. Fred founded LNG Allies in 2014 and is a leading spokesman for the US LNG export industry with over four decades of experience in government and public relations. LNG Allies is an independent, non-profit association focused on advancing the interests of the US LNG industry and promoting the benefits of LNG exports. We were thrilled to visit with Fred. We covered a lot of territory in our conversation starting with background on the formation of LNG Allies, the significant shift in the US from being an importer to becoming the world’s largest exporter of LNG in a relatively short period, gratitude from European countries towards the US for supplying LNG in the post Ukraine invasion energy crunch, the ongoing debate about natural gas as a lower impact fuel and its role in the energy transition, the impact of recent geopolitical events and energy prices on energy security and industrial activity, and potential motivations and implications behind the Biden Administration’s pause on LNG approvals. We touch on the shift in resistance to long-term LNG contracts, opposition and lobbying against LNG exports, global trust in the US as a supplier and concerns about reliability with changing administrations, the potential for LNG growth in other countries, the impact of US policy decisions on energy supply, and concern with the lack of understanding among policymakers about energy issues. Fred shares his perspective on the diverse export market for LNG, emerging markets in future LNG demand, challenges faced by countries in accessing financing for LNG projects due to credit rating issues, and much more. We ended by asking Fred for his view on the state of journalism and public debate as a writer himself. It was a wide-ranging and in-depth conversation and we can’t thank Fred enough for sharing his time and thoughts with us. In our discussion, you will hear we reference a few items. The IEEJ’s January 2024 report is linked here and the Wall Street Journal op-ed regarding the IEA is linked here. For additional LNG reading, the LNG Allies’ report on US LNG projects and contracts as of February 3rd is linked here and a recent letter to Congress on the LNG Moratorium is linked here. Mike Bradley kicked us off by sharing key economic, equity market, commodity and energy sector thoughts. On the economic front, January CPI printed hotter than expected, pushing the 10-year yield bond up and calling into question the pace of future FED rate cuts. On the broader equity market front, even though the hotter than expected CPI pushed the DJIA down over 500 points, he stressed that market volatility remains historically low and investor sentiment remains bullish. On the commodity market front, WTI price surged to ~$78/bbl. (+$5/bbl. on the week) which is the upper end of its 3-month trading range. He noted several recent crosscurrents effecting crude oil markets and highlighted that U.S. natural gas prompt price plunged to ~$1.65/MMBtu (lowest price level since Covid in 2020 and prior to that 1999) and noted that the 12-month strip traded down to ~$2.50/MMBtu, which is below “most” U.S. natural gas E&Ps break-even price. On the traditional energy sector front, he highlighted this week’s $26 billion merger deal between Diamondback Energy and Endeavor Energy, w

Today we had the very interesting opportunity to visit with Ernest Scheyder, Senior Correspondent at Thomson Reuters and author of the newly released book entitled "The War Below: Lithium, Copper, and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives." The book was officially published on January 30th and examines the multifaceted world of metals, mining, and processing with insights from investors, miners, landowners, environmentalists, and politicians. Ernie provided a balanced perspective in telling this complex story and has an extensive background covering both shale in its heyday and now critical minerals/mining for Reuters. As you will hear, our whole team thoroughly enjoyed the book and the discussion.Our session with Ernie spanned the themes and insights in his book including the challenges and controversies surrounding the extraction of critical minerals, the complexity of mining operations, environmental concerns, community opposition, historical events and their implications for present-day mining projects, and the varying perspectives on greenfield versus brownfield mining. We touch on the lack of certainty in long-term projects across different administrations and various departments in the US, projects facing uncertainty with permitting issues, associated issues with outsourcing processing to countries like China, the tough choices the US will have to face regarding resource extraction to ensure national security, the potential for armed conflicts over critical minerals, and developing countries’ desire to develop their own supply chains. Ernie also shares his experiences with environmental groups and conservationists of all types, efforts by the mining industry to establish global standards (for additional reading on "IRMA" – the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance, click here), growing consumer interest in responsibly sourced materials, initial feedback Ernie has received on the book, and his overall goal to maintain a neutral viewpoint in the book. We thoroughly enjoyed the conversation!To start the show, Mike Bradley flagged the recent surge in 10-year bond yields due to hotter-than expected recent job stats, which is making traders question the consensus expectation for interest cuts in March. From an equity markets perspective, broader equity indices continue hitting all-time highs with volatility trading near historic lows. On the commodity front, global crude oil prices declined ~$4/bbl. over the last week, but in general remain directionless due to varying global crosscurrents. On the U.S. natural gas front, natural gas traded briefly below $2.00/MMBtu and investors seem to be in little rush to be stepping into natural gas levered equities today but are sniffing around for a 2025 gas-levered trade. From an energy equity market perspective, he indicated that most oil majors have reported solid Q4 results, with one of the bigger themes coming from Euro majors being a modest pivot away from alternative energy spending and favoring increasing shareholder returns. He wrapped by highlighting the boom/bust for the lithium industry, with lithium prices down ~80% from its Nov. ’22 peak and with many lithium equities over the last year down >70%. Todd Scruggs emphasized the complexity involved in the energy transition by noting a recent announcement from Germany to commission 10 GW of new natural gas-fired power plants with the expectation of converting them to hydrogen fuel in the future (story linked here), Germany’s intention to introduce a capacity market feature to their power market, and the overall projected surge in demand for critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, copper, silver, and rare earths.We are e

For today’s discussion we were delighted to welcome back our good friend Robert Bryce. Robert is the author of six books (his most recent being "A Question of Power: Electricity and the Wealth of Nations"), host of the Power Hungry podcast, and a former journalist with more than 30 years of experience reporting on the energy sector. He is a frequent contributor to the energy discussion and his Substack is linked here. Robert has just released his latest docuseries focused on power titled "Juice: Power, Politics, and the Grid" (available to watch here). The series officially debuts today, January 31st, and we were thrilled to visit with Robert to discuss the vitally important examination this docuseries brings to light around the state of power grids both domestically and internationally. "Juice: Power, Politics, and the Grid" is a five-part docuseries with 20-minute episodes titled "Texas Blackout," "Undermined by Enron," "Green Dreams," "Nuclear Renaissance," and "Industrial Cathedrals." In our conversation with Robert, we touch on Canada’s recent nuclear power developments, the challenges and legacy of Enron and Enron-type thinking in today’s electricity market, the importance of government involvement in supporting nuclear energy, the consequence of electricity being treated as a commodity rather than a service, and the crucial role of reliability in the grid. Robert shares his perspective on the impact of permitting delays, regulatory issues and land use conflicts, the difficulties of building infrastructure, including high voltage transmission lines, the need for long-term bipartisan support for nuclear energy, and how the "anti-industry industry" affects energy policy. We also discuss policy as a reliability risk, industrial consumers (i.e. Dow, Microsoft) becoming more interested in nuclear (see recent Microsoft news here), NGO influence, the need for balanced priorities among decarbonization, affordability and reliability, and more. We want to congratulate Robert for the launch of "Juice: Power, Politics, and the Grid" and for his contributions to help change the conversation. It was a fantastic discussion!To kick us off, Mike Bradley highlighted the upcoming FOMC meeting, continued bullish equity market sentiment, rebound in crude oil prices, and broadening out of Q4 energy subsector reporting in the coming weeks. Wednesday’s FOMC Rate Decision meeting looms large, with most expecting the FED will continue to pause interest rates. Equity volatility is still very low and equity market sentiment remains very bullish. On the commodity front, global crude oil prices continue to rise and the biggest surprise for crude oil markets this week was Saudi Aramco’s decision not to proceed with plans to increase their maximum sustainable capacity up to 13mmbpd, which weighed heavily on the consensus positive sentiment towards internationally levered oil service equities. Brett Rampal flagged Canada’s recent announcement to refurbish the Pickering nuclear plant, extending its operational life by several decades, and showcasing the ability of groups, advocates and the nuclear industry to execute large-scale refurbishment projects efficiently. As mentioned, Robert previously joined COBT on Jan. 5, 2021 (episode linked here) and first on Aug. 11, 2020 (episode linked here). Our COBT episode with Meredith Angwin, author of "Shorting the Grid," is linked here from June 8, 2022. As is almost always the case, this past week was a busy one with many things happening i

We have been intrigued by some of the news coming out of the World Economic Forum (i.e. Davos) and have been on the lookout for someone who could give us an objective, independent summary and assessment of the gathering. We were elated to connect with our special friend Dr. Dan Yergin for such a discussion. While impossible to succinctly summarize his achievements and contributions to the energy industry, Dan is the Vice Chairman of S&P Global, the Chairman of CERAWeek, and the author of several books, with his most recent being "The New Map." He is a Pulitzer prize-winner and a highly esteemed energy expert. It was our pleasure to discuss Dan’s key takeaways from the event as well as preview this year’s CERAWeek Conference. We covered a lot of territory in our conversation starting with Dan’s impressions of Davos and the role of major international conferences (Davos, COP, etc.), the unique role of the Founder and Chairman of the World Economic Forum Professor Klaus Schwab (bio linked here), this year’s top theme, and geopolitical concerns including proxy wars, disruptions in the Middle East, and Red Sea disruption affecting oil tankers. Dan shares his perspective on oil market dynamics, OPEC+ cohesion and oil demand projections for 2024, Russian production resilience despite international service companies pulling out of the country, global energy forecasts and the gap between IEA and OPEC projections, Argentine President Javier Milei’s impactful speech (linked here), power/electricity demand growth, copper and mining challenges, and more. We also discuss the CERAWeek Conference taking place from March 18 – 22 in Houston and how the conference’s theme of "Multidimensional Energy Transition: Markets, Climate, Technology and Geopolitics" will translate across sessions such as LNG, geopolitical complexities, and the changing global environment. Dan never disappoints and we had a great time visiting with him (as usual!). Mike Bradley kicked off the show by highlighting recent bullish equity market sentiment, his current energy commodity thoughts, and key things to focus on as the energy sector ramps up Q4 reporting over the coming weeks. On the equity market front, he remains concerned that equity volatility is very low and equity market sentiment is very bullish. Broader equity markets like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 continue making all-time highs due to continued optimism with AI and large-cap technology stocks, while smaller indices like the Russell 2000 continue to trade well below their all-time highs, therefore a narrow market breadth. Global crude oil prices have caught a bid in recent weeks (WTI at ~$75/bbl). Both Brent and WTI crude oil time spreads have moved back into backwardation, for the first time since November, which typically signals a tighter physical market, and could be related to frigid U.S. temperatures. U.S. natural gas prices plunged by ~$1.00/MMBtu over the last week, which has pushed natural gas price to ~$2.40/MMBtu. On the energy sector front, Q4 energy sector reporting has begun with the Big3 oil service companies reporting and over the next couple of weeks, energy sector reporting will broaden out to a handful of NAM land rig/frac companies, E&Ps, midstream, oil majors and refiners, all of which should provide a clearer picture of the 2024 classic energy landscape. For a more complete list of scheduled earnings in the energy and energy-related world in the next week, click here. For our COBT history buffs, today marks Dan’s fourth appearance on COBT. His previous episodes include Feb. 15, 2023 (linked here), Feb. 23, 2022 (" rel="nofollow">

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Rob Gramlich, Founder and President of Grid Strategies. Rob previously oversaw transmission and power market policy for the American Wind Energy Association as SVP and Interim CEO, served as Economic Advisor to FERC Chairman Pat Wood III, and was Senior Economist at PJM Interconnection. Grid Strategies is a power consulting firm headquartered in Washington, D.C. that helps their clients advance grid integration solutions. Given the recent winter weather much of the US and Canada is experiencing, this was a particularly timely discussion and we were thrilled to hear Rob’s insight on power demand growth, infrastructure buildout, cost, and reliability. Our discussion with Rob focused on a report Grid Strategies recently published titled “The Era of Flat Power Demand is Over” (linked here). Rob first shares background on the Grid Strategies team and the inspiration behind writing the report. We cover aspects from the report including the need for the power industry as well as legislators and regulators to acknowledge sharply increased demand forecasts and the need for action, factors contributing to increased power demand, including data centers and AI-driven technologies, the influential players in Washington contributing to shaping policies, regions with notable growth, reliability and resource adequacy, and the need for large-scale robust transmission planning. Rob shares his thoughts on regional differences in power markets and some of the unique market designs, concerns about supply and demand challenges and its effect on rising costs, changing dynamics in the power industry and the power “basketball team” lineup, global comparisons, behind-the-fence power generation, and more. Thank you, Rob, for sharing your insights with us all! We learned a lot. Power has undoubtedly become such an important issue and a topic to which we have dedicated several episodes. The most recent episodes include John Bear from MISO (linked here) and Jim Robb with NERC (linked here). Last year, we also visited with ERCOT (linked here). You may remember that in the ERCOT show, we called on our friends at Orennia to provide analytics around Texas power. For today’s discussion, the team at Orennia provided additional data on summer and winter Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) for solar and wind and cumulative coal retirements up to 2040 (linked here). To kick us off, Mike Bradley highlighted recent key issues across the regulatory, commodity market and energy/electricity space. On the regulatory front, the U.S. Supreme Court will be hearing arguments this week relating to the historical Chevron Deference decision; a decision to reverse could have huge implications for highly regulated industries, like the energy industry, as power to regulate could shift away from Alphabet-Letter Agencies (like the EPA and others). On the commodity front, WTI oil price continues to be stuck in a bit of a trading range (low-$70s/bbl) given that Red Sea ship rerouting/growing Middle East conflict is getting countered by global crude oil S/D that looks modestly oversupplied in Q1’24 without additional OPEC+ production cuts. He noted that U.S natural gas prices have completely round-tripped this week (down $0.30-$0.35/MMBtu to