Oct 30 2023
EurasiaChat: Shrinking Caspian, invisible opposition, elusive pipeline
Central Asia is grappling with another looming water crisis. In this episode of the EurasiaChat podcast, hosts Peter Leonard and Alisher Khamidov delved into the concerning drop in the Caspian Sea's water level, which has dire implications for the ecosystem and marine economy in the region.The decline in the Caspian Sea's water level is a complex issue influenced by both natural forces and human activities. This extensive body of water, shared by Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, and Russia, has been experiencing a significant reduction in water levels since 2005. Startlingly, Azerbaijani officials report a staggering 114-centimeter decrease over the past decade, a concerning trend that has been exacerbated by climate change. Factors like reduced precipitation, increased evaporation, and declining water inflow, driven by global warming, are taking a toll on the Caspian Sea.The most immediate and severe impact is felt in Kazakhstan, where the city of Aktau declared a state of emergency in response to the receding shoreline.This RFE/RL article tells the story well: https://www.rferl.org/a/caspian-sea-shrinking-kazakhstan/32518243.htmlOn a different note, Alisher discussed the recurrent anti-government protests in Kazakhstan that often coincide with Republic Day, celebrated on October 25. Mukhtar Ablyazov, a government critic residing in Europe, typically incites these protests. However, recent calls for demonstrations have garnered little enthusiasm. While police resort to questionable legal measures to suppress protests, the engagement in anti-government actions has notably weakened.Nevertheless, the subdued response doesn't equate to a victory for the authorities. On the contrary, by limiting the avenues for political expression and stifling dissent, they create a volatile and potentially unstable environment, as demonstrated by the sporadic and uncoordinated protests in Kazakhstan in January 2022.Returning to the Caspian, there is renewed interest in constructing a natural gas pipeline across the sea, connecting Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan. Recent events offer some promising signs. A trilateral summit involving Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Turkmenistan in December aimed to establish a coordinated system for delivering energy resources to global markets. Additionally, President Berdymukhamedov's visits to Hungary and subsequent discussions suggested the potential for a "political agreement" on gas deliveries.However, to translate this ambition into reality, it will require concrete commercial agreements and financial commitments. Berdymukhamedov's talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week emphasized the importance of an East-West transport corridor through the Caspian region, underscoring the need for tangible deals and investments to drive the agenda forward.