Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Explore the captivating world of investing with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and his incredible co-hosts. Each week, we delve into engaging conversations with renowned investors, top economists, expert traders, and visionary thought leaders. Our discussions cover Trend Following, Global Macro, Geo-Politics, Commodities, Quant Investing, Crypto, Volatility, and much more. Unlock valuable insights from seasoned professionals, celebrating their triumphs and learning from their obstacles. Tune in every week to stay informed and inspired in the dynamic world of trend following, global macro and investing. For the latest episodes and blog posts, visit https://toptradersunplugged.com read less
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Episodes

OI08: Trend Following...Austrian Style ft. Michael Neubauer & Joseph Waldstein from SMN
2d ago
OI08: Trend Following...Austrian Style ft. Michael Neubauer & Joseph Waldstein from SMN
In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Michael Neubauer and Joseph Waldstein from SMN Investment Services, a Vienna, Austria-based systematic trend following manager with a 28-year track record. Michael and Joseph explain how they initially got interested in trend following and how their systems have evolved over the years. Moreover, the discuss why trading many different markets – as many as possible – is important for their approach, and that the inclusion of synthetic markets such as spreads and baskets as well as less liquid exotic/alternative markets improves SMN’s risk-adjusted returns. Last but not least, Michael and Joseph explain why they trade VIX futures and why this is a market they trade with a different methodology given the mean-reversion pattern of variance, and how they are monitoring this market – and potentially exiting open positions - on an hourly basis.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Joseph on LinkedIn.Follow Michael on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:18 - Introduction to Michael Neubauer and Joseph Waldstein05:52 - How did they learn about trend following?14:18 - The perfect match?15:12 - What drove their decision to discretionary overlays?16:52 - What is causing dispersion in the trend following...
SI300: Finding the Optimal Trend Following Rules ft. Richard Brennan
6d ago
SI300: Finding the Optimal Trend Following Rules ft. Richard Brennan
Together with Richard Brennan, we discuss the optimal way of doing trend following and how to find the optimal set of rules to use in different market regimes, how to examine market states through Markov models and how artificial intelligence will impact trend following and make short-term trading incredibly competitive. Lastly, we ask ChatGPT what the optimal way of doing trend following is.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:04 - What has been on our radar recently?04:03 - Industry performance update07:50 - Q1, Dennis: Given the nature of lengthy hold periods, do you recommend trading cash CFD's accounting for the overnight costs?11:40 - Q2, Ramki: Using ATR for position sizing when backtesting a trend following system14:47 - Optimal rules to use in different kinds of market regimes18:46 - How to use Markov models and mathematical algorithms to optimize trend following strategies41:17 - Is trend following threatened by AI?51:39 - "ChatGPT, what is the optimal way of doing trend following?"Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful.
IL27: Unlocking the Secrets of Great Communication ft. Charles Duhigg
Jun 12 2024
IL27: Unlocking the Secrets of Great Communication ft. Charles Duhigg
In this episode, we speak with Charles Duhigg, a renowned author and writer for The New Yorker, who won the 2013 Pulitzer Prize for exploratory journalism. His book, "The Power of Habit," spent three years on the New York Times bestseller list. Charles joins us to discuss his new book, "Supercommunicators: How to Unlock the Secret Language of Connection." Our conversation centers around the importance of effective communication in personal and professional relationships, including in the investment industry. Charles explains how to become a "supercommunicator" and outlines the four rules for meaningful conversations. He highlights the types of questions top communicators ask and what we can say or do to make our conversations more meaningful and productive. Finally, we explore the unique rules of communication in the digital age and the distinction between communication and manipulation.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Charles on LinkedIn and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:05 - Introduction to Charles Duhigg06:30 - Every conversation is a negotiation09:21 - It takes two to tango?11:09 - The importance of listening13:42 - The...
SI299: Sharing the Trend Following Pie ft. Andrew Beer
Jun 8 2024
SI299: Sharing the Trend Following Pie ft. Andrew Beer
Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer where we discuss the outlook for inflation and why Andrew believes there is an existential crisis in macro economic modelling. We then touch on the question "if trend followers might be the only true short sellers left" as well as how to deal with the lag effect when using replication models. We round off our conversation discussing why Andrew believes we should all “share the trend following pie” and why the managed futures space is stalling when it comes to AuM, why he believes that money is “packed anxiety” for most people, why the ETF space needs an injection of positivity and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:44 - What has caught our attention recently?03:04 - Is what we thought was "normal" Real Yields actually not normal?09:30 - Are the trend followers the only true short sellers left?19:09 - How do CTAs react to the lower prices?21:35 - Industry performance update23:00 - Q1, Joe: How do you deal with the lag effect in replication models?32:36 - Let's share the trend following pie40:38 - The disadvantages of the institutional world43:56 - Why is the managed futures space not growing?49:49 - A crazy story from Andrew56:26 - Are low-cost offers killing the industry?01:02:39 - The ETF costs dont add up?Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever...
GM62: How to Build a Future-Proof Portfolio ft. Bob Elliott
Jun 5 2024
GM62: How to Build a Future-Proof Portfolio ft. Bob Elliott
Today, Cem and I welcome Bob Elliott, the founder of Unlimited Funds and former right-hand man to Ray Dalio at Bridgewater. Bob shares what he learned from his decade at Bridgewater and discusses the unique income-led economic expansion currently happening in the US, contrasting it with typical credit-driven expansions. He also explains why most investors are wrongly positioned in today's macro landscape and how they can create a balanced and diversified portfolio. Bob emphasizes the importance of optimizing portfolio allocation to protect against market volatility and unpredictability, and he discusses how to gain access to alternative investments, along with the challenges these assets present. Finally, Cem provides an update on his outlook for 2024.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Bob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:42 - What Bob learnt from working close to Ray Dalio?04:24 - The secret to Bridgewaters success07:17 - Elliott's perspective on the current global macro framework10:46 - The outlook for interest rates15:31 - Is inflation here to stay?20:48 - The outlook for asset allocation25:48 - The role of demographics30:04 - A collective memory32:53 - Advice for achieving a balanced and diversified portfolio36:37 - Elliott's approach to diversification42:22 - How to get access to...
SI298: The Trend Following ETF Revolution ft. Katy Kaminski
Jun 1 2024
SI298: The Trend Following ETF Revolution ft. Katy Kaminski
Together with Katy Kaminski, we dive deep into the ETF space to better understand how you can utilize a new wave of ETFs as an investor. Katy describes the transition many Trend Following managers have gone through to get into the ETF space and how you can integrate the Trend Following ETFs in your own portfolio. We discuss if or how due diligence in the ETF space may be different from traditional due diligence and the different paths into the ETF space managers have chosen. We also discuss fee considerations when building ETF models and how to choose the right replicator, and if we are likely to have too many firms replicating the same few CTA indices. We end our conversation with some thoughts on how AI will impact the trend following industry and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:07 - What has been on our radar recently?02:56 - Industry performance update07:41 - Our thoughts on CTA offerings in the ETF space13:40 - Is giving people more liquidity a good thing?17:32 - Why include ETFs in your portfolio?21:43 - Use cases for ETFs25:00 - How does the due diligence process work in the ETF space?28:58 - Are we becoming a Relative Return industry?32:01 - Is the increasing trader anonymity a problem?34:33 - The different paths into the ETF space40:57 - How ETFs compare to classic managed futures products43:30 - Should you...
GM61: The New Politics: Neoliberal Decline and Authoritarian Rise ft. Gary Gerstle
May 29 2024
GM61: The New Politics: Neoliberal Decline and Authoritarian Rise ft. Gary Gerstle
Join Alan Dunne in conversation with Gary Gerstle, Professor of American History at the University of Cambridge and author of "The Rise and Fall of The Neoliberal Order", as they delve into the shifting landscape of the global political order. From the decline of the New Deal Order to the ramifications of the Global Financial Crisis, Gary traces the trajectory of the Neoliberal Order and its impact on contemporary society. Exploring the nuances of Bidenomics, they analyse the sustainability of current fiscal and industrial policies amidst rising inequality and geopolitical tensions. Gary shares insights on the potential rise of authoritarianism worldwide, the implications of protectionism, and the prospect of increased antitrust activism in the US. Finally, they turn their attention to the upcoming US presidential elections, examining the contenders and the pivotal factors that could shape the outcome.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on XFollow Gary on XEpisode TimeStamps: 02:26 - Introduction to Garry Gerstle05:50 - Understanding political order and neoliberalism12:04 - How important are the economic principles in dismantling the neoliberal order?20:06 - What will drive the new political order?29:01 - How the West's approach to China has changed36:19 - Do banks have too much power?43:34 - Is the U.S deficit a constraint going forward?47:24 - The 4 freedoms of...
Si297: Trend Following as a Return Enhancement Overlay ft. Alan Dunne
May 25 2024
Si297: Trend Following as a Return Enhancement Overlay ft. Alan Dunne
In today’s episode, Alan Dunne helps us uncover the latest news and data within the global macro landscape. We also discuss the state of the quant macro space, how it compares to trend following and what allocators should consider when comparing the two. Then we break down how family offices are looking to allocate assets at the moment before we turn our attention to a potential new narrative within the trend following world - namely, how trend following can be used as an return enhancement overlay, instead of "crisis alpha". We also dive deep into fees and returns in the multi-strategy space and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:01 - What has been on our radar recently?06:58 - Is OpenAI falling apart?09:19 - U.K. and European Parliament elections - should investors care?11:52 - What is neoliberalism?12:54 - Unpacking the current global macro landscape19:07 - Are central banks defeating their own purpose?22:42 - Industry performance update25:39 - What is going on with quant macro?32:00 - Trend follower or quant macro fund - what is hardest to analyze?34:39 - How are family offices looking to allocate assets currently?37:43 - Any allocation to whiskey?39:31 - Trend following: Return Enhancement Overlay or Crisis Alpha?47:13 - Advice for using trend following as an enhancement overlay49:46 -...
IL26: How New Technologies Will Shape the Economy ft. Koen De Leus & Philippe Gijsels
May 22 2024
IL26: How New Technologies Will Shape the Economy ft. Koen De Leus & Philippe Gijsels
In this episode we speak to Koen De Leus and Philippe Gijsels. Koen is Chief Economist at BNP Paribas Fortis and Philippe is Chief Strategist. They are co-authors of The New World Economy in 5 Trends: Investing in Times of Superinflation, Hyperinnovation and Climate Transition. We talk about how technologies like AI, 3D printing will drive economic growth and why they are likely to create more jobs than they destroy. Another important trend from a market perspective is the potential for a doubling of the gold price and possibility of a new ‘super cycle’ for industrial metals. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Koen on LinkedIn and read his book.Follow Philippe on LinkedIn and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:16 - Introduction to Koen De Leus and Philippe Gijsels06:22 - Why haven't we seen higher productivity?12:11 - What is the...
SI296: Is Trend Following Becoming Too Complicated? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
May 18 2024
SI296: Is Trend Following Becoming Too Complicated? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski is back to discuss the latest investor sentiment survey from Societe Generale’s Capital Consulting team, to find out what strategies investors are losing interest in and which are seeing more demand right now. We also dig into how the performance of economies greatly depends on the type of government policies and how going from multilateralism to bilateralism impacts trend following, the complexity of being a systematic manager and the phalacy of consensus. Mark also explains why we need to look beyond price and consider the drivers of price, what the VUCA framework is and how/why to use it, whether trend following is becoming too complicated and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:39 - What has been on our radar recently?06:59 - Which Alternative Strategies do Investors Want...latest survey?12:17 - Discussing the data18:30 - Industry performance update21:26 - Is the rise of the Chinese stock market legit?25:08 - From multilateralism to bilateralism29:42 - The difference between the ideal vs. reality manager36:31 - The fallacy of consensus40:23 - Using economic data as a trend follower43:14 - Is price truth?47:38 - VUCA - what, why and how?54:50 - Applying VUCA to trend following57:46 - Is trend following becoming too complicated?Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights...
ALO24: Managing Money Through Structural Shifts ft. Richard Urwin
May 15 2024
ALO24: Managing Money Through Structural Shifts ft. Richard Urwin
Richard Urwin, Chair of the Investment Committee at Saranac Partners, the $6bn UK wealth manager, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss how he is approaching asset allocation at the current juncture. They discuss how long term valuations and asset class return forecast help inform Saranac’s strategic asset allocation and delve into some of the structural forces that may influence the economic outlook and asset class returns in the coming decade. While shifting demographics, climate change, high deficits and rising debt levels all have the potential to contribute to higher inflation and higher bond yields, Richard is cautious about being too pessimistic about the outlook and sees good opportunity in credit and alternative assets and strategies. They also discuss how Saranac think about selecting and sizing hedge funds in their portfolios and how this has changed in a higher interest rate environment.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Richard on LinkedInEpisode TimeStamps: 02:45 - Introduction to Richard Urwin06:31 - A noticeable shift?08:49 - What is Saranac's investment philosophy?13:06 - Dealing with structural shifts as an asset allocator18:07 - How confident are they in forecasts?24:24 - Balancing competing forces30:08 - How Saranac builds balanced portfolios33:55 - Do they consider supply shocks in...
SI295: Trend Followers - The Unwanted Party Guests? ft. Nick Baltas
May 11 2024
SI295: Trend Followers - The Unwanted Party Guests? ft. Nick Baltas
Together with Nick Baltas, we dive into trading signal direction and discuss if signal direction always trump signal strength in portfolio construction, based on CFM’s paper on Agnostic Risk Parity. Baltas also explains why allocating risk to where opportunity lies is prudent as well as why trend following is a powerful tool to achieve a broad risk allocation. Based on Baltas’ recent paper in the Financial Times, we also discuss equity momentum and why trend followers might be the “unwanted guests at the party”.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:52 - What has been on our radar recently?12:36 - Industry performance update - how is May so far?15:45 - New Ultimate Guide out now...How to get your Free copy!16:38 - Q1, Peter: Should signal direction always trump signal strength in portfolio construction?27:39 - Q1.1 Peter: Is it reasonable to aim for broadly equal risk allocations across different asset classes?35:19 - Q1.2 Peter: If you were an institutional investor with an ultra-long time horizon, a stomach for short-term volatility and a mandate to deliver the highest possible CAGR over the long-term, how much of your portfolio would you allocate to systematic trend-following?39:22 - Q1.3 Peter: Do you agree with Anthony Todd's description of trend alpha coming in bursts?46:54 - Discussing Nick's paper in the Financial Times57:48 - What kind of party guest would a trend follower be?59:09 - Thanks for...
ALO23: Behind the Scenes of a High Net Worth Investor ft. Tad Fallows
May 8 2024
ALO23: Behind the Scenes of a High Net Worth Investor ft. Tad Fallows
In this episode, Tad Fallows, Founder of Long Angle, a community for high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth investors, joins Alan Dunne for a fascinating chat on how they approach asset allocation and find niche investment opportunities. Tad speaks about the typical risk appetite of his co-investors, highlighting how age and generation of wealth shape the risk profile of members. He talks about investments in private equity, alternative assets, and their investment strategies in the shifting macro landscape. Tad highlights why hedge funds may seem less appealing to them but why he has a lot of interest in trend following. He also speaks to some of the more esoteric investments his group makes such as whiskey aging, and talks about their crypto exposure. Finally, he highlights the importance of intuition and high conviction when making investment deals. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Tad on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:34 - Introduction to Tad Fallows12:38 - The risk appetite of Long Angle investors15:45 - What defines the Long Angle community?19:52 - Why not the traditional route?23:14 - How are they allocated?27:20 - How they incorporate private equity in their portfolio35:02 - How much of their returns are resilient to changes in global macro?40:18 - Micro or macro?45:08 - Taking advantage of inefficiencies in...
SI294: Lowering the Cost of being Long Commodities ft. Hari Krishnan
May 4 2024
SI294: Lowering the Cost of being Long Commodities ft. Hari Krishnan
Hari Krishnan returns to the show for a deep dive into commodities. He helps us understand why investing in commodities is not as easy as other markets and why he believes that we are entering a commodity super cycle. We also discuss how to overcome the challenges of holding and storing commodities and why cheap commodities are not always so cheap once you start rolling your futures position. We talk about where his new “virtual storage” concept can add value to a trend following system and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 01:07 - What is catching our attention recently?06:53 - A recap of April10:14 - Hari's thoughts on trend following14:30 - The interesting commodities18:10 - A commodity super cycle inbound?20:36 - BUT...Commodity Bulls used the same arguments in 202222:51 - How commodity storage functions29:57 - Balancing divergence and convergence32:26 - How virtual commodity storage works35:55 - The role of trend following in a regime-based participation42:47 - How consistent is the virtual warehousing approach?47:06 - Manual or systematized?48:59 - Overcoming the challenges of commodities53:44 - What markets can the method be applied to?54:16 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights...
GM60: Preparing Your Portfolio for the Second Half of 2024 ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann
May 1 2024
GM60: Preparing Your Portfolio for the Second Half of 2024 ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann
In this episode, Cem and I welcome Christian Mueller Glissman back on the show, and together, we tackle the intricacies of capital allocation in 2024, particularly amid the pivotal elections we expect to see. We discuss the pros and cons of starting with a 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy. Cem and Christian highlight Europe's resilience to inflation and its potential energy cost advantages, making it an attractive investment destination. We also analyze how election cycles, especially during populist periods like now, influence the economy and markets. Christian shares insights on using structured products to manage volatility, and both he and Cem strongly advocate for strategies like trend following in current market conditions. Finally, we discuss what an optimal portfolio allocation should include in 2024.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Christian on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:39 - Christian's current big picture macro framework07:22 - The role of volatility in inflation12:20 - Should the 60/40 portfolio always be your starting point?21:02 - What are the risks of the 60/40 portfolio not being the starting point?27:37 - A scary situation in Europe?32:16 - How election periods affect the economy40:22 - A wall of worry43:30 - Christian's thoughts on using structured products to reduce...
SI293: Market Outlook for the Rest of 2024 & EOY S&P500 level ft. Cem Karsan
Apr 27 2024
SI293: Market Outlook for the Rest of 2024 & EOY S&P500 level ft. Cem Karsan
Today, I'm joined by Cem Karsan to discuss how speculations in markets affect the economy and Cem presents his view on the current state of global macro as well as a forecast for the rest of the year. How do conflicts around the world affect the global economy and why does Cem believe that we are going into a “dangerous period”? Why does Cem believe options are key to making profit from different scenarios and outcomes and what are the possibilities of seeing US rate cuts later this year? We also discuss how the U.S election will impact the economy and where Cem believes the equity markets will finish the year and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:47 - What has been on our radar recently?02:22 - What is the talk of the town in the vol space at the moment?03:11 - Industry performance update05:27 - Q1: What is Cem's view on the impact of call speculation on the VIX?12:17 - Cem's perspective on the current state of global macro18:09 - Important market development recently?31:40 - Making profit from different scenarios35:48 - The structure of markets42:23 - Are rate cuts coming?48:10 - How the U.S election will change the economic narrative53:32 - The pros and cons of a win for Trump56:49 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help...
GM59: The Geopolitical Tug-of-War: Russia, China & the West ft. Marko Papic
Apr 24 2024
GM59: The Geopolitical Tug-of-War: Russia, China & the West ft. Marko Papic
Join us for an eye-opening discussion on global power dynamics with geopolitics expert Marko Papic, alongside Cem Karsan and myself, where we dive deep into the ongoing tug-of-war between the West, Russia, China, and the rest of the world. Marko sheds light on the United States' push for a clear bipolar world order. He shares his insights on whether the world as we know it is coming to an end and why a Trump presidency may pave the way for trade deals and foreign policy agreements, particularly with rivals like China. Looking ahead, Marko discusses Europe's industrial sector and explains why investing in European industrials could be a smart move. Finally, we explore the complexities of the relationship between Russia and China. Are they as close as we think? And is China's dream of becoming the next superpower within reach? We also delve into the possibility of China's move to invade Taiwan and what it would entail.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Marko on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:15 - Marko's current macro framework07:20 - Moving towards a multi-polar world14:43 - How is now different from back in the days?23:36 - Trump landing the deglobalization plane31:48 - The election - a macro black hole36:47 - The new world from a non-US perspective44:18 - What happens with Ukraine?49:50 - An increased risk for bigger global...
SI292: Is Cocoa becoming Too Hot for Trend Followers? ft. Rob Carver
Apr 20 2024
SI292: Is Cocoa becoming Too Hot for Trend Followers? ft. Rob Carver
Today, Rob Carver joins me to answer questions about MatLab as a backtesting tool, why you should be careful to apply trend following in crypto and what Rob think about seasonality and relative value as strategies. We also dive into why Rob has increased his allocation to trend following and his thought process when building portfolios, how the surging price of cocoa has impacted the trend following industry and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:05 - What has been on our radar recently?06:15 - Industry performance update09:54 - Q1, Paul: Where can I learn MatLab?13:38 - Q2, Byleth: What is Rob's experience with trend in crypto?20:41 - Q3, Tauras: What are Rob's thoughts on seasonality and relative value as strategies?26:23 - Are strategies like seasonality convergent?27:14 - Rob's thoughts on relative value as a strategy32:00 - Shock! Horror! I've increased my CTA allocation41:07 - Rob's thought process on portfolio allocation46:19 - Vol scaling with a nice cup of hot cocoa57:43 - Path-dependence vs. non-path dependence59:53 - Final thoughts and a cliff hangerCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In...
IL25: Any Happy Returns... the Next Super Cycle? ft. Peter Oppenheimer
Apr 17 2024
IL25: Any Happy Returns... the Next Super Cycle? ft. Peter Oppenheimer
In this episode Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Global Strategist and Head of Macro Research in Europe for Goldman Sachs joins us to discuss his new book Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets. Peter believes financial cycles are the primary driver of investor returns. He explains how each cycle consists of four phases with distinct characteristics in terms of returns, earnings growth and valuations. We talk about the structural changes that are creating headwinds for markets in our current super-cycle and how AI and the energy transition might help offset them.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Peter on LinkedIn & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:07 - Introduction to Peter Oppenheimer04:59 - What do financial cycles derive from?07:19 - What drives the cycles?09:31 - A desynchronisation in the cycles12:15 - Are we entering an optimism phase?14:39 - Interpreting the signals17:38 - Does Peter see room for interest rates to rise?21:59 - What drives the high corporate profits in GDP?26:54 -...
SI291: Trend Following...What should it mean to Investors? ft. Richard Brennan
Apr 13 2024
SI291: Trend Following...What should it mean to Investors? ft. Richard Brennan
In this episode, we are joined by Richard Brennan to discuss why now is the time to step up your trend following allocation. Rich challenges Andrew Beer’s conclusion that a 3% allocation to trend following is the sweet spot and explains why he believes the trend following industry should simplify its narrative and quit the fancy “jargon”. We also discuss what defines a trend follower and why we may be losing the incentive to keep improving as trend followers, new research on the impact of crises and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:08 - What has been on our radar recently?08:33 - Industry performance update16:02 - What is the optimal allocation to trend following?24:02 - Do trend followers have fiduciary responsibility?27:09 - Why is Andrew Beer having trouble with his trend following allocation?31:30 - Are we moving too far away from the classic trend following?37:21 - What does it take to call yourself a trend follower?42:01 - Discussing Corey Hoffstein's approach46:44 - What about the fees?50:34 - Are we losing the incentive to improve?58:45 - The impact of crises01:07:11 - Sign up for our new newsletter01:08:26 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...