Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Join Niels Kaastrup-Larsen as he explores the world of finance and investing, through weekly conversations with the most interesting and experienced investors, economists, traders & thought leaders. Learn from their experiences, their successes, and their failures. We don't want you to think like them...but we do want to make you think! Stay up-to-date on https://toptradersunplugged.com

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GM24: The Real Cause of the Global Energy Crisis ft. Adam Rozencwajg
Yesterday
GM24: The Real Cause of the Global Energy Crisis ft. Adam Rozencwajg
Today, we welcome back Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg, to help us understand the global energy crisis and how we ended up in this situation. We discuss the outlook of the coming months and why we are in the beginning of a commodity super cycle, how the supply and demand side of the economy functions and what role the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) plays in a global energy crisis. We also discuss the different types of energy commodities, how convergence will affect the energy market and how to take advantage of it, the history of energy and the importance of ensuring a continuous abundance of efficient energy, how nuclear power can be a viable solution to the energy crisis and much more. ---- ---- Follow Niels on (Twitter), (LinkedIn), (YouTube) or via the (TTU website). IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written  (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on  (iTunes) or (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on (Twitter). Follow Adam on (Twitter). Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:01 - Heading into the winter 10:42 - Flood the market with oil...a good idea? 14:50 - Understanding the supply side 29:30 - Venezuela - A hot spot? 33:21 - Is the SPR in trouble? 40:12 - The role of the different energy commodities 42:51 - Why convergence and how to take advantage of it 51:56 - The end of energy abundance 59:57 - Is nuclear the future? 01:05:18 - Thanks for listening  Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! (Click Here) 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. (Click Here) (Privacy Policy) (Disclaimer)
GM24: The Real Cause of the Global Energy Crisis ft. Adam Rozencwajg
Yesterday
GM24: The Real Cause of the Global Energy Crisis ft. Adam Rozencwajg
Today, we welcome back Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg, to help us understand the global energy crisis and how we ended up in this situation. We discuss the outlook of the coming months and why we are in the beginning of a commodity super cycle, how the supply and demand side of the economy functions and what role the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) plays in a global energy crisis. We also discuss the different types of energy commodities, how convergence will affect the energy market and how to take advantage of it, the history of energy and the importance of ensuring a continuous abundance of efficient energy, how nuclear power can be a viable solution to the energy crisis and much more. ---- ---- Follow Niels on (Twitter), (LinkedIn), (YouTube) or via the (TTU website). IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written  (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on  (iTunes) or (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on (Twitter). Follow Adam on (Twitter). Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:01 - Heading into the winter 10:42 - Flood the market with oil...a good idea? 14:50 - Understanding the supply side 29:30 - Venezuela - A hot spot? 33:21 - Is the SPR in trouble? 40:12 - The role of the different energy commodities 42:51 - Why convergence and how to take advantage of it 51:56 - The end of energy abundance 59:57 - Is nuclear the future? 01:05:18 - Thanks for listening  Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! (Click Here) 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. (Click Here) (Privacy Policy) (Disclaimer)
SI211: A Trend Following Renaissance? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
4d ago
SI211: A Trend Following Renaissance? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Today, Mark Rzepczynsky joins after an intense week for central banks and global markets. We discuss how the current situation affects us as Trend Followers and the potential systemic risks in the futures exchange community in case of a global financial reset event and how we can use what we learned during the pandemic to tackle the issues of liquidity. We also discuss the difference between CTAs and Trend Followers and why the big investment banks should support their trend following clients...instead of trying to front-run our signals. We debate the global fixed income markets and how central banks create the foundation of a global recession, how what we are experiencing now in terms for trendiness in the markets may just be the beginning, why people who have a need for closure don’t do well with uncertainty and much more. ---- ---- Follow Niels on (Twitter), (LinkedIn), (YouTube) or via the (TTU website). IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written  (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on  (iTunes) or (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on (Twitter). Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:23 - Key events from this week? 11:15 - Industry performance update 16:25 - Q1, Matthew: The potential risks for trend funds in a global reset event? 25:18 - Research paper from UBS about CTAs and quant strategies 39:55 - Digging into the global fixed income markets 44:44 - Strong US Dollar and intervention in the Yen market 49:29 - Is the panic yet to come? 55:02 - Closure and dealing with uncertainty 01:03:15 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! (Click Here) 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. (Click Here) (Privacy Policy) (Disclaimer)
GM23: The Wars of Capital ft. Michael Howell
Sep 21 2022
GM23: The Wars of Capital ft. Michael Howell
Today, we are joined by Michael Howell, Author and Managing Director of Crossborder Capital, for a conversation on how liquidity drives financial markets, based on his book, “Capital Wars: The Rise of Global Liquidity”. We address term premia and the impact it has on the economy, the off-shore market, how Central Banks have become the dominant players over the last decade and the capital war between China and the U.S. We also discuss what might happen if the global economy becomes divided into two worlds, where one is financed by the U.S. dollar and the other financed by the Chinese Yuan and the increasing networking risk and risk of crises within the financial system, the different types of liquidity and the recipe for creating a strong dollar and much more. ---- ---- Follow Niels on (Twitter), (LinkedIn), (YouTube) or via the (TTU website). IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written  (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on  (iTunes) or (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on (Twitter). Follow Michael on (Linkedin) and (read his book). Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:51 - Introduction to Michael Howell and his work 07:38 - How much debt is there globally? 14:08 - Why is longer-term treasuries desirable? 16:08 - The off-shore market  19:56 - The capital war between China and the U.S. 41:37 - Is the financial system more fragile than we think? 50:10 - What if the 10-year bond yield blows out rapidly? 53:59 - What has happened with the offshore short-term market? 59:55 - The currency space and relative liquidity 01:02:31 - Comments on the current regime 01:08:18 - Key takeaways from Niels  Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! (Click Here) 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. (Click Here) (Privacy Policy) (Disclaimer)
SI210: Trend Following Q & A ft. Rob Carver
Sep 17 2022
SI210: Trend Following Q & A ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver returns after his extended holiday and kicks off by taking a nostalgic look back to 1985 as the British Pounds this week hit the lowest level since that year, to reflect on how markets tend to go in cycles. We also address dynamic optimisation, whether it contributes to make more markets "tradable" and the use of "non-tradable" markets, how Rob uses correlation and clustering for his classification approach and his strategy allocating to Trend Following. Additionally, we discuss techniques for Trend Following on single stocks and determining distances in a continuous MA crossover system, strategies to increase the capacity of a Trend Following program and running multiple different systems together, and much more. ---- ---- Follow Niels on (Twitter), (LinkedIn), (YouTube) or via the (TTU website). IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written  (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on  (iTunes) or (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on (Twitter). Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 03:52 - Key takeaways from the week? 15:35 - What does the future hold for interest rates and inflation? 22:52 - Industry performance update 25:52 - Q1, Joakim: Does dynamic optimisation in itself make more markets tradable? 32:21 - Q1, Follow-up: About adding "non-tradable" markets 35:39 - Q2, Kristen: Futures markets and Rob’s classification approach  43:15 - Q3, Kristoffer: How to treat CTAs? And deciding between allocating to investment-grade corporate bonds or high yield bonds 49:46 - Q4, Elie: Book recommendations for relevant statistical concepts + why not build a trend following portfolio of single stocks which are optimized for low correlation? 57:15 - Q4, Follow-up: About determining distance in a continuous MA crossover system 01:02:11: - Q5, Douggie: What is the capacity of a strategy? 01:09:04 - Q6, Adam: About running multiple different systems together and splitting risk 01:13:17 - Q7, Michael: What’s behind Rob’s low trailing vol? 01:14:16 - Q8, “Toby” (Rob): Can you (Rob) explain your new book? 01:21:39 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! (Click Here) 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious
IL07: Equality Across the Globe can be Achieved ft. Oded Galor
Sep 14 2022
IL07: Equality Across the Globe can be Achieved ft. Oded Galor
Today, we are joined by Oded Galor, Professor of Economics at Brown University, for a conversation on how we can explore and uncover new ways of thinking about the economy, based on his book “The Journey of Humanity: The Origins of Wealth and Inequality”. We discuss inequality from a historical aspect and the roots of human behaviour, the Malthusian trap and how the industrial evolution has impacted humanity and how geography, culture and diversity is a key factor in achieving equality. We also address the costs and benefits of diversity within a society and how we need diversity to generate more growth and complex solutions, why China will be left behind due to a lack of cultural fluidity, the process of measuring diversity, how we can improve going forward and much more. ---- ---- Follow Niels on (Twitter), (LinkedIn), (YouTube) or via the (TTU website). IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written  (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on  (iTunes) or (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on (Twitter). Follow Oded on (LinkedIn) & (read his book). Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 04:00 - Introduction to Oded Galor 07:29 - Fundamental insights from Galor’s book 09:49 - From Stagnation to Growth 21:22 - Education and the labour force 30:24 - The impact of longer-term structural forces 40:38 - Can new cultures emerge? 43:31 - How does diversity impact a society? 50:08 - Is China falling behind? 52:09 - How diversity should be measured? 59:11 - Galor’s advice for moving forward 01:06:00 - Key takeaways from Niels  Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! (Click Here) 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. (Click Here) (Privacy Policy) (Disclaimer)
SI209: Trend Following...The Best Way to Surf the Markets ft. Richard Brennan
Sep 11 2022
SI209: Trend Following...The Best Way to Surf the Markets ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan joins us for a weekly update on Trend Following, where we discuss why the crisis we experience at the moment might be worse than previous crises, such as what was experienced in the 1970’s. We also discuss the turtle trading method and how ATR can be used for entering and exiting trades, how Richard adjusts his trailing stop according to the price and level of volatility and why simplicity is the most robust solution to deal with complex markets. Additionally, we address how Trend Following can be used as a diversification tool for your portfolio, the principle of return stacking and how it is used in Trend Following, why more people are turning away from the 60/40 portfolio and much more. ---- ---- Follow Niels on (Twitter), (LinkedIn), (YouTube) or via the (TTU website). IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written  (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on  (iTunes) or (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on (Twitter). Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:26 - The stark warning from Niall Ferguson 07:01 - What happened this week? 10:35 - Industry performance update 12:47 - Q1, Irwin: Turtle trading and the use of ATR for position sizing 23:19 - The relationship between trailing stop and volatility 32:45 - Simplicity and sticking to your model 39:32 - Is the 60/40 portfolio outdated? 53:31 - The principle of return stacking 01:04:52 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! (Click Here) 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. (Click Here) (Privacy Policy) (Disclaimer)
ALO11: From Ballet Dancer to CIO ft. Cameron Dawson
Sep 7 2022
ALO11: From Ballet Dancer to CIO ft. Cameron Dawson
Today, we are joined by Cameron Dawson, CIO at NewEdge Wealth, who has a really unique background. We address how she allocate and construct her portfolios in a highly unstable and inflationary environment and why she prefesr to play on the smaller side of funds. We also discuss the importance of valuations and how it can help forecast long term returns and how she analyzes earnings and liquidity to understand and navigate an uncertain macro environment, the outlook for inflation and how the Fed might act to combat the economic instability as well as their process of recruiting external managers. Lastly, we discuss how narratives impact the markets and the importance of knowing the source of your returns, how to approach long-term investment to avoid buying at the top and selling at the bottom, as well as some sound advice for aspiring CIOs and much more. ---- ---- Follow Niels on (Twitter), (LinkedIn), (YouTube) or via the (TTU website). IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written  (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on  (iTunes) or (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on (Twitter). Follow Cameron on (LinkedIn). Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 03:10 - Introduction to Cameron and her work at NewEdge Wealth 08:01 - Navigating in a tough environment 14:31 - Their approach to asset allocation 21:31 - The historical perspective 29:56 - Getting comfort in an uncertain macro environment 41:20 - Is high inflation here to stay? 48:33 - What it will take for the Fed to call victory? 53:18 - Bottom-Up or Top-Down? 01:00:39 - Dealing with individual investors 01:06:36 - Advice for aspiring CIOs 01:12:53 - Key takeaways from Niels Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! (Click Here) 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. (Click Here) (Privacy Policy) (Disclaimer)
SI208: Trend Following in Today's Economy ft. Alan Dunne
Sep 4 2022
SI208: Trend Following in Today's Economy ft. Alan Dunne
Today, Alan Dunne joins us for a weekly update on Trend Following where we reflect on the ongoing instability in the markets and look back on the month of August. We also discuss behavioural biases and why we may need to distinguish between managed futures and trend following, an article by Quantica on the benefits of trend following and how it can without a doubt improve your portfolio. Lastly, we reflect on the annual event at Jackson Hole and the BIS talking about the challenges ahead, the 2% inflation target and how it can impact the economy if changed, the Volcker tightening cycle and the importance of narratives as well as an update on Jeremy Grantham’s super bubble hypothesis and much more. ---- ---- Follow Niels on (Twitter), (LinkedIn), (YouTube) or via the (TTU website). IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written  (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on  (iTunes) or (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on (Twitter). Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:01 - Summary of the week 09:44 - Industry performance update 11:46 - Reflecting on the month of August 16:13 - Alan’s perspective on the Cliff Asness article 28:01 - The undisputed benefits of Trend Following 38:00 - Key takeaways from Jackson Hole 46:00 - Comment from BIS 49:45 - Are we leaving the 2% inflation target? 53:54 - Lessons from the Volcker tightening cycle 01:00:20 - Latest piece from Jeremy Grantham 01:04:23 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! (Click Here) 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. (Click Here) (Privacy Policy) (Disclaimer)
ALO10: How to Manage $50bn ft. Jason Morrow
Aug 31 2022
ALO10: How to Manage $50bn ft. Jason Morrow
Today, we are joined by Jason Morrow, Deputy CIO at Utah Retirement Systems, for a conversation on how portfolio management is carried out at a large pension fund. We discuss how Morrow approaches the objective and constraints of URS’s portfolio and the realized volatility over time, how they manage the challenges of an inflationary environment and balance their portfolio to mitigate risk, how they find the right mix of public and private equities and their approach to absolute return strategies. We also address the process of assembling a team of managers and evaluating quant strategies, how to mitigate behavioural biases when selecting manager, cultivating talent as a CIO and much more. ---- ---- Follow Niels on (Twitter), (LinkedIn), (YouTube) or via the (TTU website). IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written  (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on  (iTunes) or (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on (Twitter). Follow Jason on (LinkedIn). Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 03:35 - Introduction to Jason Morrow 08:02 - Investment objective and constraints of URS’s portfolio 13:21 - How does inflation affect URS's portfolio? 20:27 - Building and balancing the portfolio 24:29 - Public vs. private equities 31:22 - Using multiple asset allocating strategies 38:06 - Their approach to selecting managers 41:15 - Evaluating quant strategies 45:51 - Behavioural biases in manager selection 50:27 - Return expectations setting for alts 55:42 - Mastering the role as a CIO 01:01:13 - Book recommendations and key advice for listeners 01:05:53 - Key takeaways from Niels Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! (Click Here) 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. (Click Here) (Privacy Policy) (Disclaimer)
SI207: Trend Following: The Perfect Portfolio? ft. Jerry Parker
Aug 27 2022
SI207: Trend Following: The Perfect Portfolio? ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker joins me for a raw conversation on Trend Following, the day after Jerome Powell spoke at Jackson Hole on fighting inflation and achieving economic stability. We also discuss the pros and cons of CTA/Managed futures replication strategies and the importance of investing in your own fund as a manager, the evolution of Trend Following and why Trend Following might be the Perfect Portfolio. We touch on different ways of diversifying your portfolio and why correlation is not always reliable friend. Lastly, we discuss an article by Morgan Housel on why it is important to identify the core principles (in our case of Trend Following) and how incentives are the strongest force in the world, the importance of having confidence whilst being humble and much more. ---- ---- Follow Niels on (Twitter), (LinkedIn), (YouTube) or via the (TTU website). IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written  (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on  (iTunes) or (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Jerry on (Twitter). Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:51 - Summary of the week 08:35 - Industry performance update 12:21 - Discussion about CTA/Managed futures replication strategies 26:19 - Aligning incentives as a manager 33:28 - Aspect article in Hedge Fund Journal 46:47 - Article by Cliff Asness on Pure Trend Following 51:33 - Crisis alpha vs the Perfect Portfolio 01:03:40 - Article by Morgan Housel on following Core Principles 01:11:15 - Confidence vs. Ability 01:14:33 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! (Click Here) 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. (Click Here) (Privacy Policy) (Disclaimer)
GM22: Investing through a Fourth Turning ft. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen & Cem Karsan
Aug 24 2022
GM22: Investing through a Fourth Turning ft. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen & Cem Karsan
Today, Cem Karsan and I reflect on previous conversations with guests on the Global Macro series and how they have developed us as investors. We also discuss the historical framework of the Fed and their role and power in the economy, how 40 years of monetary policy and technological revolution have caused historic inequality and how recessions have been handled throughout history. Additionally, we address the consequences of ultra low interest rates and high inflation and why we might see a loss of credibility in the Fed going forward, the importance of finding an edge in your investment strategy. Lastly, we discuss the strength of the dollar, how investors should position themselves in the wake of a Fourth Turning and much more. ---- ---- Follow Niels on (Twitter), (LinkedIn), (YouTube) or via the (TTU website). IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written  (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on  (iTunes) or (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on (Twitter). Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:54 - Looking back on previous GM guests and how they impacted our thinking 09:17 - Thoughts on the Fed and a historical perspective 21:11 - How much power and control does the Fed actually have? 31:02 - Low interest rates... a bubble maker? 40:03 - The inverted yield curve...a sign? 49:26 - Using volatility as a guide for equity markets 59:14 - What happens to the dollar? 01:04:13 - What should investors be considering at this point? 01:12:24 - Thanks for listening  Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! (Click Here) 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. (Click Here) (Privacy Policy) (Disclaimer)
SI206: Trend Following is a Lazy Man's Strategy ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Aug 20 2022
SI206: Trend Following is a Lazy Man's Strategy ft. Mark Rzepczynski
This week, Mark Rzepczynsky joins us for our weekly update on Trend Following, at the end of yet another busy week for inflation watchers. Based on an article by Cliff Asness at AQR, we discuss why you want to own managed futures and why you want to avoid getting "carried away" as a Trend Follower, the dual mandate and the difference between strategy and running a business, innovation in Trend Following and why macro trends do not always translate to price trends. We also discuss how high inflation affects Trend Following and the importance of divergence, why turning points kill the real issue beyond inflation and using the 70 percent rule to make trading decisions, the difference between trend following and momentum and much more. ---- ---- Follow Niels on (Twitter), (LinkedIn), (YouTube) or via the (TTU website). IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written  (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on  (iTunes) or (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on (Twitter). Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 03:22 - What happened this week? 13:36 - Industry performance update 16:07 - AQR latest article on managed futures 27:56 - The dual mandate and volatility "targeting" 37:55 - The private equity issue and innovation in Trend Following 43:48 - FT Article from Goldman Sachs about inflation and divergence 49:25 - How turning points impact your overall TF returns 53:17 - The 70 percent rule...and why it works for Trend Followers 56:03 - Hedgehogs vs. Foxes and drought in market liquidity 01:02:30 - Trend following vs. Momentum...can you tell the difference 01:03:55 - “Entrepreneurs of errors” 01:06:01 - Supply, Command and End-user of commodities 01:09:02 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! (Click Here) 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. (Click Here) (Privacy Policy) (Disclaimer)
GM21: The Inflation Regime and the Big Macro Picture ft. Darius Dale
Aug 17 2022
GM21: The Inflation Regime and the Big Macro Picture ft. Darius Dale
Today, Darius Dale, Founder & CEO of 42macro, joins us for a conversation on Global Macro from a broad perspective. We discuss the outlook for inflation and the implication it has on the markets going forward, the path to a more elevated inflation level and how we may get there, what we can learn from the past about inflation and advice for trading in an inflationary regime. Additionally, Darius explains how he and 42macro consider external factors, such as demographics and structural changes when trading and analyzing the markets and he describes the financial and political impact of approaching a new Fourth Turning. Lastly, we discuss portfolio construction and risk management frameworks, why it is important to be humble and honest about the uncertainty and unpredictability of the current state of the markets and much more. ---- ---- Follow Niels on (Twitter), (LinkedIn), (YouTube) or via the (TTU website). IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written  (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on  (iTunes) or (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on (Twitter). Follow Darius on (Twitter). Episode TimeStamps: 0:00 - Intro 03:15 - Who is Darius Dale? 06:48 - Darius's strategic perspective 10:38 - What will happen to the inflation going forward? 20:28 - Looking at the next 6-12 months 26:18 - What about the longer term? 31:39 - The historical perspective 39:33 - What Darius is telling investors right now 48:22 - Dealing with external factors 58:36 - Factor correlation and clustering 01:02:07 - Are portfolio construction models outdated? 01:10:30 - Thanks for listening (LINK: 42 Macro) Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! (Click Here) 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. (Click Here) (Privacy Policy) (Disclaimer)
SI205: Trend Following...What Really Matters ft. Richard Brennan
Aug 14 2022
SI205: Trend Following...What Really Matters ft. Richard Brennan
Today, Richard Brennan joins us to discuss what really matters within Trend Following, as well as an update on the reaction to the latest CPI data. We also address questions from listeners regarding how to achieve a robust portfolio by avoiding recency bias and using a slow adaptive process, how sample size is most optimally used in Trend Following and the advantages of using a simplistic approach in your trading system. Lastly, we discuss the concept of warehousing risk and how it should be taking into account as part of the risk management. We analyse an article by Morgan Housel about long tails and how it drives every system with exceptional performance, and much more. ---- ---- Follow Niels on (Twitter), (LinkedIn), (YouTube) or via the (TTU website). IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written  (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on  (iTunes) or (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on (Twitter). Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:36 - Review of the market action post CPI data? 07:27 - Industry performance update 11:35 - Q1, Gareth: Emphasising recent performance vs. over optimisation 21:13 - Q2, Antonio: Why not use a smaller sample size? 41:45 - What does warehousing risk mean? 50:52 - Tails, you win - Analysis of Morgan Housel article 56:50 - Top 3 things that matter the most in Trend Following 01:05:58 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! (Click Here) 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. (Click Here) (Privacy Policy) (Disclaimer)
IL06: The History of Interest & the Next Devastating Crisis ft. Edward Chancellor
Aug 10 2022
IL06: The History of Interest & the Next Devastating Crisis ft. Edward Chancellor
Edward Chancellor, Author, Journalist and unrivaled Financial Historian, joins us today to discuss the history of Interest, based on his new book, “The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest". We address why it is crucial to pay attention to the historical perspectives of the economy, the allocation of capital and interest and why low interest rates have a feedback effect on the economy, the zombie corporate phenomenon and the impact it has on the economy. We also discuss the longer term consequences of low interest rates and whether bubbles can be beneficial, globalization and how interest rates impacts the fragility of global supply chains, the role of Central Banks and how they affect price stabilization by preventing creative destruction. Lastly, we discuss how the Fed policy of “cleaning up afterwards” creates unintended problems, how a zero interest policy can pose a threat to capitalism and much more. ---- ---- Follow Niels on (Twitter), (LinkedIn), (YouTube) or via the (TTU website). IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written  (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on  (iTunes) or (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on (Twitter). Follow Edward on (LinkedIn) & (read his book). Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:19 - Introduction to Edward  04:19 - The process of writing his latest book 14:15 - Are we forgetting the economic history? 19:34 - How Edward approaches his study of Interest 25:43 - The impact of interest rates 35:22 - The notion of zombie companies 46:04 - Can bubbles be beneficial? 52:01 - How interest rate affects global supply chains 57:27 - Central banks and price stabilization 01:04:54 - Should Central Banks prevent bubbles? 01:08:39 - Is a zero-interest policy a threat to capitalism? 01:14:14 - Key takeaways from Niels  Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! (Click Here) 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. (Click Here)...
SI204: Trend Following & A Cocktail of Macro Factors ft. Alan Dunne
Aug 6 2022
SI204: Trend Following & A Cocktail of Macro Factors ft. Alan Dunne
Today, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss the ongoing instability in the markets and rising inflation, and why we, as investors, should keep an open mind for what is to come. We address the pros and cons of replication strategies, the performance of the past months and why we are beginning to see a shift in the markets. We review some recent articles, including an interview with Edward Chancellor, who is current with a new book, The Price of Time. Topics we cover include the impact of low interest rates, how we are in a war economy and how we are seeing a shift in the aggregate supply curve, expectations and predictions for inflation in the coming time and much more. ---- ---- Follow Niels on (Twitter), (LinkedIn), (YouTube) or via the (TTU website). IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written  (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on  (iTunes) or (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on (Twitter). Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:02 - What happened this week? 14:20 - Trend Following update of the week 16:55 - Replicating vs. hiring managers 22:30 - Reflecting on the past months market reversals 40:36 - Why is Trend Following performing well at the moment? 48:06 - Discussing Edward Chancellor’s interview 53:06 - Zoltan Pozsar’s article on war and interest rates 58:56 - Bridgewater article on inflation and conversation with Bilal Hafeez 01:06:45 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! (Click Here) 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. (Click Here) (Privacy Policy) (Disclaimer)
AL09: FED Funds may hit 8% ft. Bilal Hafeez
Aug 2 2022
AL09: FED Funds may hit 8% ft. Bilal Hafeez
Bilal Hafeez, Founder, CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive, joins us today to discuss the current state of the markets and how we are possibly heading into a new regime and why FED Funds may hit 8%. We address the economic outlook of the near future and how the FED will deal with the challenges of inflation and increasing interest rates, how technology has taken over parts of the labour force and how Covid-19 has changed the way people and companies work, how demographics impacts inflation and the growth problems that China currently experiences. We also discuss how the future for asset allocation looks and how the sanctions against Russia impacts the economy around the world. Lastly, Bilal explains his process and approach to making research and recommends books that have been influential to him. ---- ---- Follow Niels on (Twitter), (LinkedIn), (YouTube) or via the (TTU website). IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written  (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on  (iTunes) or (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on (Twitter). Follow Bilal on (LinkedIn). Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 03:03 - Introduction to Bilal Hafeez 07:51 - How does the community respond to the current environment? 10:43 - FED Funds & the economic outlook of the next 6-12 months 23:17 - An inflation story 29:39 - Demographics - is it inflationary or dis-inflationary? 35:20 - What is next for asset allocation 44:03 - Should we worry about the sanctions against Russia? 51:58 - Lessons learned from previous crises 55:16 - Bilal’s research process and approach 01:02:36 - Book recommendations 01:06:01 - Key takeaways from Niels Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! (Click Here) 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. (Click Here) (Privacy Policy) (Disclaimer)
SI203: A new way of doing Trend Following ft. Jerry Parker
Jul 30 2022
SI203: A new way of doing Trend Following ft. Jerry Parker
Today, we are joined by Jerry Parker where we dive into some of the highlights from the challenging month of July and how the industry has handled the current high level of volatility and trend reversals, why Trend Following continues to work but how narratives can create vicious reversals in the markets. We also discuss questions from listeners regarding Jerry’s strategies for entering and exiting trades, advice for backtesting using continuous futures contracts, how to handle stop losses and including equities in your allocation strategy. Lastly, Jerry describes why he is in favour of accidental diversification and why he is always on the hunt for outliers, why adding more markets has no impact on the robustness of a system and why he prefers to be a “slow tractor”. We finish off discussing how some firms claim that they can replicate the returns of Hedge Funds and CTAs without charging much for it and Jerry reveals a profound change to how he wants to extract trends from markets...even if it means that he will more correlated to Equities. ---- ---- Follow Niels on (Twitter), (LinkedIn), (YouTube) or via the (TTU website). IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written  (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on  (iTunes) or (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Jerry on (Twitter). Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:02 - Market overview 03:52 - Major events of the month 16:00 - The importance of narratives 19:16 - How Jerry handles equities 22:39 - Q1, Michael: How does Jerry enter a new trade after he exited his first? 25:55 - Q2, Caleb: Backtesting using continuous futures contracts 30:02 - Q3, Adam: How to use stop losses and equities inclusion 36:09 - Jerry's big reveal: "CTAs focus too much on diversification and correlation..." 45:42 - Tweet 1: Improving equity risk concentration 50:53 - Tweet 2: Diversification - a free lunch 53:01 - Tweet 3: Predictable vs. unpredictable inflation 56:55 - Tweet 4: Tractors picking out sports cars from ditches 58:57 - Tweet 5: Doing what you want is what people actually want 01:02:09 - Tweet 6: Non normal world is uncapped 01:05:01 - Replicating CTA performance at little cost...Andrew Beer style 01:21:05 - Industry performance update Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! (Click Here) 3....
IL05: The Road to Economic Stability ft. Andrew Smithers
Jul 27 2022
IL05: The Road to Economic Stability ft. Andrew Smithers
Today, we are joined by Andrew Smithers, Author, Economist and Founder of Smithers & Co, to discuss how we can achieve economic stability, based on his book, “The Economics of the Stock Market”. We address the Q Ratio and why it is important for economic stability, how to use the idea of hindsight value to predict markets and how monetary policy has contributed to economic instability, the incentives for a company’s management and how to balance the level of leverage. Lastly, we discuss reasons why policy makers should be focusing on Q, what Andrew has planned for the future and much more. ---- ---- Follow Niels on (Twitter), (LinkedIn), (YouTube) or via the (TTU website). IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written  (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on  (iTunes) or (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on (Twitter). Follow Andrew on (Smithers & Co) & (read his book). Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:15 - Introduction to Andrew  03:28 - Key messages from his book 06:42 - How is the Q Ratio constructed? 14:34 - The idea of hindsight value 23:31 - How Quantitative Easing caused instability? 26:49 - How remuneration policies have led to an increased Q value 31:14 - The incentives for management 42:30 - Should policy makers focus more on Q? 53:10 - The economic consequences of Alan Greenspan 56:21 - Andrew’s plans going forward 01:04:42 - Key takeaways from Niels  Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! (Click Here) 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. (Click Here) (Privacy Policy) (Disclaimer)
SI202: Trend Following in a Binary World ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Jul 24 2022
SI202: Trend Following in a Binary World ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynsky joins us today for a weekly talk on Trend Following, where we discuss how we are beginning to see stagflation and recession around the world, how to manage systemic risk as a trend follower, how to construct your portfolio using Trend Following funds and why it’s preferred to let Trend Following funds replace bonds and commodities, whilst leaving equities in your portfolio. Additionally, we discuss how a global macro binary world allows for Trend Following to work and why Mark believe in “let prices speak for themselves”. We round things off discussing how the Fed uses the “Powell Call” rather than the "Greenspan Put" to determine how they should react to the markets and much more. ---- ---- Follow Niels on (Twitter), (LinkedIn), (YouTube) or via the (TTU website). IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written  (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on  (iTunes) or (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on (Twitter). Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:43 - Recap of the major events from this week? 09:43 - Industry performance update 12:40 - Q1, Alp: How to manage Systemic Risks 32:40 - Q2, Algernond: Portfolio construction using Trend Following funds 41:05 - A global macro binary world and its impact on trend following 53:13 - Revival of accepting price action when it comes to investment process 01:01:18 - Moving beyond the Greenspan Put 01:04:39 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! (Click Here) 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. (Click Here) (Privacy Policy) (Disclaimer)