CLIMAS - Southwest Climate Podcast

Recorded 11/1/2024 Aired 11/5/2024 The Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are grateful that fall is (finally) here.  In this month’s episode, they unpack the persistent heat that hung around through October as well as blocking patterns.  They discuss the two major hurricanes that made landfall - Helene and Milton.  And get into the current ENSO forecast which is pointing to a weak La Niña.  Lastly, they dive into a couple papers as a way to think differently about ENSO and winter as they look ahead.  Buckle up as it could be a wild ride!   Mentions: The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School: ENSO Forecast NOAA - CPC:  El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) NOAA - ENSO Blog: Revisiting La Nina and winter snowfall Climate.gov - ENSO Graphic: Typical late fall through early spring upper level jet stream positions associated with moderate to strong La Niña and El Niño events NOAA - CPC - ENSO Graphic: North American Winter Features Paper 1: Reinterpreting ENSO's Role in Modulating Impactful Precipitation Events in California Paper 2: How Well Do Seasonal Climate Anomalies Match Expected El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Impacts? NOAA - CPC:  Three-Month Outlooks

Recorded 9/20/2024 Aired 9/24/2024 In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack ‘Generational’ Guido and Mike “Dewpoint’ Crimmins break down what the heck happened to the second half of the monsoon this year.  They unpack the recent Atlantic tropical activity, or lack thereof, as well as any hope for the Pacific to bring some moisture to the Southwest.  They end with some coverage of the rest of September and a look into the early winter outlooks.  This episode is not without controversy - so download / stream today!   Generational Count = 11   Mentions: Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries NOAA Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System (MRMS) The More Extreme Nature of North American Monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern United States as Revealed by a Historical Climatology of Simulated Severe Weather Events RainLog CoCoRaHS NOAA - CPC: Outlooks NWS - Tucson: Avg Daily Dewpoint Tracker IRI, Columbia University Climate School: ENSO Forecast North American Multi-Model Ensemble

Recorded 8/16//2024 Aired 8/20/2024   Now that we are over halfway through the 2024 monsoon season, this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins don their chef hats and lay out the main ingredients of the monsoon.  They give a recap of recent rain events, answer the question of whether or not the characteristics of convective storm dynamics have changed, and offer their thoughts on what is on the horizon for September.  Great timing as 8/31 is your last chance to join in the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game this year!       Mentions: RainLog “Understanding the Dominant Sources and Tracks of Moisture for Summer Rainfall in the Southwest United States” NWS - Tucson: Monsoon Tracker Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping "Intensification of the North American Monsoon Rainfall as Observed From a Long-Term High-Density Gauge Network" "Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models" NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts Game AZ Central “Why is the monsoon so unpredictable? It takes a lot to make a good thunderstorm”

Recorded 7/19/2024 Aired 7/23/2024   Get ready for a big episode day as this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins kick off the monsoon season.  The crew cover the evolution of the current monsoon phases from onset to where we are today with stats and analysis.  And there is even a bit of a philosophical introspection on the data and sources (do you believe?).  Your hosts share what they have learned along the way - but stick around to the end to get their hot take on what is coming next.   Also - It’s not too late to sign up for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game as there are monthly prizes this year!   Mentions: Arizona Institute of Resilience - Power Forecasting Group  - Monsoon Forecasting Discussion Blog   - Contact to get on mailing list = Patrick Bunn, ptwbunn@arizona.edu Map - Percent of Average Precipitation (AZ & NM) RainLog Climate Reference Network Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts Game NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks

It’s June - which means in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins can officially talk about the monsoon.  Before they deep dive into the 2024 monsoon season, they cover recent conditions from last month, the fire risk and its relationship to the monsoon, and then get right down to business.  The stakes are high with a beer going to which host betters the other in v.4 of the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game this year (sign up today).     Recorded: Friday, June 7, 2024  Aired: Tuesday, June 11, 2024   Mentions: Southwest Coordination Center - Outlooks National Interagency Coordination Center - Outlooks Drought.gov - Soil Moisture North American Multi-Model Ensemble NOAA - Climate Prediction Center Tropical Tidbits - GFS Forecast Model

Welcome to this special episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast with guest hosts: Gigi Owen & Christina Greene.  In this special episode, we bring you 3 guests that were all part of the CLIMAS Environment & Society Fellowship program over the past year.  A lot of the science that CLIMAS researchers do is done collaboratively with and for our community partners so that the science that we do ends up being useful to decision-making and policy development and planning.  Our Fellowship program offers University of Arizona graduate students the opportunity to take this kind of collaborative approach to address environmental and societal problems.  Our fellows are here today to share more about their work and what they've been up to over the past year.    2023 CLIMAS Environment & Society Fellows Hannah Friedrich “Mapping tarps and stories to spotlight inequitable disaster recovery”   Majerle Lister “Re-Thinking Land and History: Working with Navajo Mountain Soil Water Conservation District Members”   Lucas Belury “Flood Justice in South Texas”   Talia Anderson *Unable to attend podcast recording “What's going on with the rains?”

It’s that time and we are 6 weeks away from the start of the 2024 monsoon season.  In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins cover the end of the winter season, the transition month of April and give an early preview to the monsoon.  Will the shift from El Niño to La Niña make for a dry or wet monsoon or active hurricane season?  Will Zack break Mike’s eternal optimism with what the forecast models are saying?  Listen in so you can be ready to play the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game!     Recorded: May 3, 2024 Aired: May 8, 2024   Mentions: University of Arizona Cooperative Extension - Climate Sciences Applications Climate.gov ENSO blog - “Untangling the winter 2023-24 precipitation forecast ball of yarn” Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping University of Arizona News - “Brace for a very active hurricane season this year, warn UArizona forecasters” NWS - CPC North American Multi-Model Ensemble

In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins look back at winter to share insights on the late-loaded precipitation, as well as current snowpack conditions and streamflow forecasts.  The hosts discuss how El Niño played out as it starts its transition to La Niña and what to look out for this coming spring setting up this year’s monsoon season.  And stay tuned for news on this year's Monsoon Fantasy competition on the next Pod! Recorded: Friday, Mar 29, 2024     Aired: Tuesday, Apr 2, 2024

February 2024 SW Climate Podcast – El Niño’s Getting Late It’s the new year and Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are back to give the lowdown on what’s happening in regards to the Southwest Climate in this month’s Podcast. They cover this past winter’s three-month pattern and overall conditions. Then they get global with the current state of El Niño and its influence on atmospheric rivers and other precip events seen in the first half of February. There’s a quick look at the resulting snowpack - which is an important feature of the west’s water supply. And finally they round it out with a look to the rest of the month which may or may not be the rally we need for a typical wet El Niño before La Niña comes back around. Mentions: ENSO Blog: “February 2024 ENSO Outlook: All along the La Niña WATCH-tower” https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/february-2024-enso-outlook-all-along-la-nina-watch-tower Paper: “Observed Hydrologic Impacts of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers in the Salt and Verde River Basins of Arizona, United States” https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020778 National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ USDA - Natural Resources Conservation Service: Snow and Water Interactive Map https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/resources/data-and-reports/snow-and-water-interactive-map National Interagency Coordination Center: Fire Outlook https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks CLIMAS Member(s):   Zack Guido Michael Crimmins

December 2023 SW Climate Podcast – Special MailBag Episode Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins sharpened their pencils, hit the library, and did their homework to bring you a very special MailBag episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast for this month.  Thank you to all the listeners for sending in your questions and for trying to stump our hosts.  This episode is not to be missed - so grab a cup of coffee and get ready to be schooled before heading off for the end of semester break.  And have a Happy Holidays from the Southwest Climate Podcast crew! Mentions: Question 1: We are based in Northeast New Mexico in the I-25 corridor. What is the predominant drivers of summer weather and precipitation.  Are we full-on monsoonal, more influenced by plains state weather patterns, or somewhere in between? Dan The climate of the US Southwest, Sheppard et. al. 2002 Question 2: There seemed to be an abundance of DCAPE this season, which is perhaps related to all the strong winds and hail we had this monsoon. what is DCAPE? Sarah Question 3: It seems that an albedo effect after a good snowpack tends to influence/add to a poor monsoon, to some degree, through delayed surface heating… Does that hold any water or stick to the wall? Mark Observed Influence of Soil Moisture on the North American Monsoon: An Assessment Using the Stepwise Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment Method, Wang et. al. 2021 Question 4: I’m wondering whether there’s a clear “global warming” signal yet in the monsoon? Sarah Intensification of the North American Monsoon Rainfall as Observed From a Long-Term High-Density Gauge Network, Demaria et. al. 2019 Weakening of the North American monsoon with global warming, Pascale et. al. 2017 Increasing Future Precipitation in the Southwestern US in the Summer and Its Contrasting Mechanism With Decreasing Precipitation in the Spring, Liang et. al. 2022 The North American Monsoon precipitation response to climate warming at convection-permitting scales, Wallace et. al. 2023 Future Land Precipitation Changes Over the North American Monsoon Region Using CMIP5 and CMIP6 Simulations, Hernandez et. al. 2022 Question 5: We're wondering if anyone is studying whether climate change could eliminate the North American Monsoon as we know it and leave Arizona high and dry during the annual monsoon. Bruce & Joanna  Glacial reduction of the North American Monsoon via surface cooling and atmospheric ventilation, Tierney (2nd) et. al. 2017 Question 6: Like many people in the Tucson area I'm engaged in a lot of outdoor activities, and during monsoon these activities get pushed further up the mountains for temperature reasons. One thing that is always a complicating factor is trying to read the weather pattern to determine whether we're going to get dumped on or caught in a storm. Some clouds pass right over without a peep, others seem to become a problem quite suddenly.  Are there a few tips you can share for how to read the different monsoon clouds? Neal in Tucson   CLIMAS Member(s):   Zack Guido Michael Crimmins

November 2023 SW Climate Podcast – Winter is Coming In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are back from Thanksgiving to give a recap of November, which was not much to write home about.  They start gearing us up for the next few months by taking a look back at previous winters and give a glimpse into this coming season as far as impacts, synoptic features, and large-scale drivers.  The team rounds it out with a deep dive into El Niño and the complex forecasting that may or may not bring us some needed winter precipitation.  Also - the monsoon is gone but not forgotten! Last Call! The Southwest Climate Podcast is looking to do a special MailBag episode for the end of 2023!  We are asking for listeners to send in their questions - Can be anything Southwest Climate related or try and stump the hosts by sending in your inquiries and postulations at uaclimas@gmail.com.  Mentions:  U.S. Drought Monitor: Current Map - West National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: Outlook National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: North American Multi-Model Ensemble USDA - NRCS: Map - Snow Water Equivalent  “Investigating Runoff Efficiency in Upper Colorado River Streamflow Over Past Centuries” Climate.gov - ENSO Blog: “S(no)w pain, S(no)w gain: How does El Niño affect snowfall over North America?” CLIMAS Member(s):   Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

Goodbye, adios, sayonara - In this month’s podcast, the crew is ready to put the 2023 monsoon in the rearview mirror.  Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins give this year’s monsoon season recap and the only good thing to say is that ‘at least it was not 2020’ :(  They cover what happened in September, review temperature and precipitation as well as the tropical storm season that prevented a full out non-soon.  We also get to hear the results of the Monsoon Madness game winners and take a look forward to a strong-leaning El Niño coming this winter.   Attention! For the first time for the Southwest Climate Podcast we are requesting listeners to send in their questions for a special MailBag episode in December.  Try and stump the hosts by sending in your inquiries and postulations at uaclimas@gmail.com.     Mentions: RainLog Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) Model Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)     CLIMAS Member(s):   Zack Guido Michael Crimmins

In wrapping up a double-punch storm here in August ‘23, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are here to deconstruct the current monsoon season.  They discuss various analogs to this year, cover Hurricane Hilary that made its way up through the western U.S. as well as the potential for additional tropical storms to bring more precipitation to the Southwest.  Lastly they end on their predictions for September and into winter.  Good luck to all the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts participants out there!   Mentions: Pima County Regional Flood Control District - Rainfall Map RainLog Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping National Weather Service - Tucson: Monsoon Climate Perspectives @NWSPhoenix - Outflow Radar Paper: “The Contribution of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones to the Rainfall Climatology of the Southwest United States” CPC: 1 Month Outlook - Sept     {"Generational" Count = 1}   CLIMAS Member(s):   Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins bring you the July '23 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast to tease out what the heck is happening with this year's monsoon.  They cover some of the record-breaking heat in July, look back at the historical record of past monsoons to find an analog to this year, weigh in on whether any or all can be attributed to the El Niño flex, and lay out their predictions for the Monsoon Fantasy game.  They may not have any definitive answers, but at least you'll get an insightful look at this summer's puzzling monsoon. Mentions: Arizona Station-based Drought Tracker Climate Perspectives Eric Webb on Twitter @webberweather North American Multi-Model Ensemble Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School - ENSO Forecast   CLIMAS Member(s):   Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

If you aren't thinking about the 2023 Monsoon Season, this Kick Off episode for the June 2023 Southwest Climate Podcast is just what you need.  Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are here to dive into the May / June review, a look at the current wildfire season, a brief chat about drought, then get into the recent Tex-Mex Heat Dome and dive right into the nitty gritty of the upcoming '23 Monsoon Season. They follow it up with an overview of the flex of El Niño, some hurricane looks - and last but not least - Monsoon Predictions.   If you haven't signed up for the Monsoon Fantasy game yet - This is your alarm clock!  Forecasts for July must be cast by June 30 at 11:59 PM! Sign up today to play!   Mentions: RainLog Southwest Coordination Center (SWCC) 'Wavy' Jet Stream - Twitter Monsoon Fantasy   ["Generational" Count = 7]   CLIMAS Member(s):   Zack Guido Michael Crimmins

Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are back in the May 2023 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast where they are asking the real questions:  Has it been a quiet spring?  What was with that Monsoon-y Too Soon Maysoon?  Why is it so hot in the Southwest?  What are the models showing for the upcoming Monsoon season?  And how come those models are throwing shade?  Join the crew as they do a deep dive into the data to give their answers, explainers as well as a bit of the usual banter.   Mentions: CoCoRaHS RainLog NOAA Blog: "May 2023 ENSO update: El Niño knocking on the door" WMO: "Global temperatures set to reach new records in next five years" James Hansen: "Global Temperature in 2022"   CLIMAS Member(s):   Zack Guido Michael Crimmins

For this special edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast Gigi Owen sits down with the CLIMAS exiting 2022 Environment & Society Fellows for a recap of their projects during their year as well as some words of wisdom for the incoming Fellows. Host: Gigi Owen 2022 Environment & Society Fellows:  Julia Davies Barriers to urban agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa Governance of traditional markets and rural-urban food systems in sub-Saharan Africa  Jake Dean  Rachel Zollinger Being for Somebody: Museum Inclusion During COVID-19 Community Ecology: Museum Education and the Digital Divide During and After COVID-19 "Science from the Past and for the Future: Learning from Indigenous Knowledge for Climate Change Adaptation" Explora: https://www.explora.us/ CLIMAS Member(s):   Gigi Owen

In the March 2023 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido still have plenty to talk about!  The pod starts out with a recap of the month of March’s precipitation and temperature followed by a discussion of whether ENSO played a role.  Then they plow (pun intended) into the ‘Big Winter Stories’ covering historical snowpack, atmospheric rivers, extremes and drought.  Stick around for the streamflow conversation as well as what Mike and Zack are looking forward to.    Mentions: Southeast Regional Climate Center - Climate Perspectives Tool – Western Region NOAA ENSO Blog: “Did La Niña drench the Southwest United States in early winter 2022/23?” SCRIPPS Center For Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) - Atmospheric River Tally NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Photo from Mammoth Mountain Rutz et. al. "Climatological Characteristics of Atmospheric Rivers and Their Inland Penetration over the Western United States" U.S. Drought Monitor   ("Generational" Count = 7) CLIMAS Member(s):   Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

In the February 2023 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido return after a bit of a hiatus, and have a lot to talk about (buckle up!).  Across the pod, they recap the winter conditions in the Southwest, talk about how this did/did-not live up to expectations for a La Niña winter, the effect some really widespread winter storm activity had across the western US, and what this means for snowpack and water supply going into spring. CLIMAS Member(s):   Michael Crimmins Zack Guido Ben McMahan

In the November episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido check in with some extended weather/transition events over the last few months, and how this relates to monsoon-like vs. fall and winter events. They work through a set of possible scenarios for winter, and what we might expect with the current (triple dip!) La Nina event already underway, but with a likely transition to ENSO-neutral by early 2023. They bring back the 'hazard report' to talk through the kinds of weather events and hazards we might see over winter, and wrap with a discussion of the winter forecasts and what we'll be watching over winter to track how the season progresses.  They also chat briefly about Ben McMahan (that's me!) changing jobs and having left UA in October (I'll keep helping with the podcast for who knows how long, but it's too much fun each month to let go easily, so we're exploring our options!). CLIMAS Member(s):   Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins Zack Guido