This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks

AG Dillon & Co

This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks reports on pre-IPO stock research, trends, trading, and venture capital funds. Visit www.agdillon.com for more. read less
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Episodes

E121: Figma $12.5b valuation tender; $625m cash for Reka AI founders/employees; Klarna IPO rumored at +100% vs 2ndary mrkt; OpenAI impresses with GPT-4o; Reddit + OpenAI data deal; Anthropic hires new CPO, launches in Europe; Chime vs payday lenders; Star
Yesterday
E121: Figma $12.5b valuation tender; $625m cash for Reka AI founders/employees; Klarna IPO rumored at +100% vs 2ndary mrkt; OpenAI impresses with GPT-4o; Reddit + OpenAI data deal; Anthropic hires new CPO, launches in Europe; Chime vs payday lenders; Star
Pre-IPO stock valuations = www.x.com/aarongdillon (see pinned post)Pre-IPO stock index fact sheet = www.agdillon.com/index00:07 | OpenAI impresses with GPT-4o- Capable of handling text, speech, and video- Refreshed ChatGPT UI and a macOS desktop app- Verbal conversation improvement was the big surprise, in my opinion- Watch live demos here = https://x.com/OpenAI- $97b secondary market valuation, +13% vs last round (Apr 2024)01:53 | Reddit + OpenAI data deal- OpenAI to license Reddit data for training- $ amount OpenAI pays Reddit not disclosed- Follows OpenAI data deals with Dotdash Meredith, Financial Times02:53 | Klarna IPO rumored at +100% vs 2ndary mrkt- $20b IPO could come as early as Q1 2025- 150m global customers, 40m US customers- UK based holding company established, sign IPO is coming- $10b secondary market valuation, +49% vs last round (Jul 2022)- Investors could make a quick 100% return if entering in the secondary and $20b IPO plays out03:55 | Anthropic hires new CPO, launches in Europe- Mike Krieger is new chief product officer- Krieger co-founded Instagram and sold to Facebook for $1.0b- Anthropic also launched in Europe; full product suite- $18.1b secondary market valuation, +0.6% vs last round (Jan 2024)05:22 | Chime vs payday lenders- cash advance of $500- customer must have completed two payroll cycles- $2 fee, 1-2 day wait to access advance- 7m customers, profitable in Q1 2024- $5.3b secondary market valuation, -79% vs last round (Sep 2021)06:14 | $625m cash for Reka AI founders/employees- Snowflake rumored to acquire Reka AI for $1.0b- Reka AI investors; DST Global, Snowflake’s venture arm- Reka AI founded in 2022, founders/employees still own 62.5% of company (my math)- $625m for Reka AI’s founders/employees if Snowflake deal goes through07:14 | Starlink live in Indonesia, Carnival ships- Starlink live in Indonesia on May 19; Starlink available in 75+ countries- Starlink live on all 90 Carnival Cruises ships; $15 to $19 per person per day- $192b secondary market valuation, +6.4% vs last round (Jan 2024)08:41 | Rippling launches performance mgmt product- New product to help employers monitor performance continuously and free up HR for complex tasks- $14.9b secondary market valuation, +11% vs last round (Apr 2024)09:54 | Figma $12.5b tender- $600m to $900m deal size- Current investors, including current and former employees, allowed to sell- a16z, Sequoia, Kleiner Perkins to invest- Adobe $20b deal blocked by European regulators, paid Figma $1b breakup fee10:53 | Pre-IPO -0.67% for week, +30.73% for last 1yr- Week winners: Rippling +5.9%, Chime +4.2%, Discord +4.1%, Bytedance +2.2%, Revolut +1.3%- Week losers: Flexport -27.5%, Canva -6.6%, OpenAI -2.4%, Epic Games -2.0%, Anthropic -1.1%- Top valuations: ByteDance $295b, SpaceX $192b, OpenAI $97b, Stripe $74b, Databricks $43b11:39 | +0.26% 2024 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index- www.agdillon.com/index for fact sheet pdf- 2024 Vintage Index top contributors since inception: Epic Games +172%, Rippling +100%, Revolut +42%, Klarna +35%, Anduril +33%- Looking at all 20 vintages … here are the winners and losers for the week; winners = Rippling +5.9%, Chime +4.2%, Discord +4.1% and losers = Tanium -10.9%, OpenAI -2.4%, Epic Games -2.0%- Key metric averages for all Vintage Indexes 5 years old or older……3.31 distributed paid in capital (DPI)…2.05 residual value to paid in capital (RVPI)…5.36 total value to paid in capital (TVPI)…4.1 years to “return the fund”
E119: Wiz $12b valuation, Wayve raises $1b, Chime fined by CFPB, Titkok sues US govt (obviously), OpenAI cuts another training data deal, FTX customers made whole!
May 9 2024
E119: Wiz $12b valuation, Wayve raises $1b, Chime fined by CFPB, Titkok sues US govt (obviously), OpenAI cuts another training data deal, FTX customers made whole!
00:08 | Wayve raises $1b- UK AI-autonomous driving technology company, licenses AI-tech to car manufactures- Softbank, D1, Nvidia, Microsoft investors- Round valuation was not disclosed- Last published valuation was $1.35b in Jan 2022 Series B01:49 | Chime fined by CFPB - online checking and savings accounts- fined $3.25m for failing to refund customer funds on a timely basis- growing pains, nothing to see here- $5.1b secondary market valuation; -80% from Sep 2021 round03:13 | Wiz $12b valuation- NYC cloud security firm- $12b post-money after $1b cap raise- a16z, Lightspeed, Thrive invested- $350m in 2023 annual recurring revenue- 34x revenue multiple (HIGH!)04:13 | Titkok sues US govt (obviously)- challenging divest/ban law passed last month- 170m US users- $16b in TikTok US 2023 revenue- estimated $152b valuation is Meta price-to-sales multiple applied05:43 | OpenAI cuts another training data deal - licensing partnership with Dotdash Meredith- brands include People Magazine, Better Homes & Gardens, Investopedia- OpenAI has data deals with FT, Axel Springer, Le Monde, Prisa, AP, StackOverflow- $99.4b secondary market valuation, +16% from Jan 2024 last round06:58 | FTX customers made whole!- $11b owed to 2m customers- $16.3b in total assets recovered- customers and creditors made whole + interest, 118% of original value08:43 | Pre-IPO +1.41% for week, +31.09% for last 1yr- Week winners: Ramp +15.9%, Groq +12.1%, Notion +5.4%, Revolut +4.4%, Chainalysis +4.2%- Week losers: Hugging Face -5.6%, Chime -2.9%, Bytedance -1.7%, Databricks -1.6%, Epic Games -0.9%- Top valuations: ByteDance $288b, SpaceX $192b, OpenAI $99b, Stripe $75b, Databricks $43b09:25 | +1.07% 2024 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index- www.agdillon.com/index to see all 20 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Indexes- 2024 Vintage Index top contributors since inception: Epic Games +177%, Rippling +89%, Revolut +40%, Klarna +36%, Anduril +34%- 2024 Vintage Index top detractors since inception: None. All 10 constituents are in positive territory. - Looking at all 20 vintages … here are the winners and losers for the week; …winners = Rippling +3.2%, SpaceX +1.6%, Databricks +1.5% and…losers = Automation Anywhere -20.9%, OpenAI -3.3%, Tanium -2.2%- Rippling is in 2024 Vintage Index; 14% weight, +73% from index inception, +1.4% from last primary round- Key metric averages for all Vintage Indexes 5 years old or older……3.31 distributed paid in capital…2.06 residual value to paid in capital…5.37 total value to paid in capital…4.1 years to return the fund
E117: CoreWeave’s $19b valuation, +171% in 5 months; X Payments approved in 25 or 50 states; OpenAI cuts data deal with Financial Times; Anthropic launches mobile app
May 3 2024
E117: CoreWeave’s $19b valuation, +171% in 5 months; X Payments approved in 25 or 50 states; OpenAI cuts data deal with Financial Times; Anthropic launches mobile app
00:07 | X Payments approved in 25 or 50 states- X Payments functionality; pay a friend, pay a merchant, earn interest, shop, buy content- X = YouTube, WhatsApp, Venmo, Amazon, NYT/CNN, Apple App Store … all in one app- X needs “X Apps” to become everything app like WeChat in China- $12.5b current valuation (Fidelity), -71% from Musk’s Oct 2022 $44b purchase price02:42 | OpenAI cuts data deal with Financial Times- OpenAI to use FT data to train models, users to access FT summaries, quotes, and links- FT to use OpenAI for AI-focused journalism tools- $98.7b secondary market valuation, +14.8% from Apr 2024 primary round03:53 | CoreWeave’s $19b valuation, +171% in 5 months- AI-focused cloud provider- $1.1b raised at $19b post-money valuation- +171% from last round in Dec 2023, just 5 months ago- Use of proceeds = increase data center infrastructure, expand to Europe- Coatue led w/ Altimeter, Nvidia, Fidelity participating05:08 | Anthropic launches mobile app- iPhone app for Claude chatbot- new subscription plan; $30/month/user for increased chatbot usage + new collaboration tools- $18.4b valuation, +2.3% from Jan 2024 primary round06:14 | Pre-IPO +0.16% for week, +25.87% for last 1yr- Week winners: Neuralink +4.5%, Ramp +4.4%, Rippling +3.2%, Chainalysis +3.2%, Groq +2.5%- Week losers: ConsenSys -8.8%, OpenAI -3.3%, Anthropic -1.9%, Chime -1.2%, eToro -1.0%- Top valuations: ByteDance $293b, SpaceX $189b, OpenAI $99b, Stripe $74b, Databricks $43b06:58 | +0.17% 2024 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index- www.agdillon.com/index to see all 20 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Indexes- 2024 Vintage Index top contributors since inception: Rippling +73%, Stripe +58%, Klarna +34%, Revolut +34%, Anduril +30%- 2024 Vintage Index top detractors since inception: None. All 10 constituents are in positive territory. - Looking at all 20 vintages … here are the winners and losers for the week; …winners = Rippling +3.2%, SpaceX +1.6%, Databricks +1.5% and…losers = Automation Anywhere -20.9%, OpenAI -3.3%, Tanium -2.2%- Rippling is in 2024 Vintage Index; 14% weight, +73% from index inception, +1.4% from last primary round
E116: Tiktok US to have a $152b valuation, xAI raising $6b at $18b valuation, X/Twitter to launch TV app, Flexport wins Shein business, Stripe tech to accept stablecoin payments, Anduril wins another govt contract (unmanned jets)
Apr 26 2024
E116: Tiktok US to have a $152b valuation, xAI raising $6b at $18b valuation, X/Twitter to launch TV app, Flexport wins Shein business, Stripe tech to accept stablecoin payments, Anduril wins another govt contract (unmanned jets)
00:08 | Flexport wins Shein business- Flexport wins Shein US shipping business with deep tech integration- Shein to expand products outside of fashion and manufacturing from India/Latin America- Flexport has $1.5b secondary market valuation, -81% from last primary round in Mar 2022- Shein has $45b-$55b secondary market valuation, May 2023 primary round at $66b01:29 | X/Twitter to launch TV app- X TV App on all smart TV platforms- X seeks to directly compete against YouTube- Half of YouTube views are on its TV app and YouTube’s TV app has more viewership vs Netflix- Fidelity, a X shareholder, has a $12.5b valuation for the company, -72% vs Musk’s Apr 2022 purchase price02:55 | Tiktok US to have a $152b valuation- US govt has passed a law requiring ByteDance to divest Tiktok US business in 1 year or less- TikTok US has 170 million users- AG Dillon believes TikTok US could have a valuation up to $152b if sold “as is”- A $152b valuation places TikTok US as the 3rd largest pre-IPO stock globally05:24 | xAI raising $6b at $18b valuation- xAI is Elon Musk’s AI large language model business sourcing data from X/Twitter- Sequoia leading $6b round- Musk has already invested nearly $1b into xAI06:19 | Stripe tech to accept stablecoin payments- Online merchants using Stripe payment solutions will be able to accept payment in stablecoin cryptocurrencies- Solana, Ethereum, and Polygon platforms will be initially accepted- Stripe has a $74.1b secondary market valuation, +14% vs its Feb 2024 primary round07:43 | Anduril wins another govt contract (unmanned jets)- Anduril to develop and test unmanned fighter jets- Potential to win multi-billion-dollar production contract in 2026- US military aims to have a fleet of 1000 unmanned fighter jets- Anduril has a $13.0b secondary market valuation, +53% vs its Dec 2022 primary round08:42 | Pre-IPO +1.31% for week, +24.96% for last 1yr- Week winners: Chime +17.2%, Ramp +3.5%, Stripe +1.5%, Chainalysis +1.2%, Bytedance +1.1%- Week losers: OpenAI -2.7%, Anthropic -1.9%, Groq -1.5%, Flexport -0.9%, Revolut -0.7%- Top valuations: ByteDance $289b, SpaceX $185b, OpenAI $100b, Stripe $74b, Databricks $42b09:25 | +1.92% 2024 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index- www.agdillon.com/index to see all 20 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Indexes- 2024 Vintage Index top contributors since inception: Stripe +56%, Rippling +50%, Klarna +32%, Revolut +28%- 2024 Vintage Index top detractors since inception: None. All 10 constituents are in positive territory. - Looking at all 20 vintages … here are the winners and losers for the week; …winners = Chime +17.2%, Automation Anywhere +1.8%, Stripe 1.5% and…losers = OpenAI -2.7%, Anthropic -1.9%, Revolut -0.7%- Chime is in the 2021, 2022, and 2023 Vintage Indexes; 3% to 4% weight in these indexes so not a material impact to overall TVPI for indexes
E114: Rippling raises at $13.4b, Ramp raises at $7.6b, Klarna’s new US credit card, AI clones in Hollywood, Mistral raises at $5b, Anduril autonomous submarine for Australia Navy, Revolut changes bank partners in US
Apr 19 2024
E114: Rippling raises at $13.4b, Ramp raises at $7.6b, Klarna’s new US credit card, AI clones in Hollywood, Mistral raises at $5b, Anduril autonomous submarine for Australia Navy, Revolut changes bank partners in US
00:09 | Rippling raises at $13.4b- HR tech company, constituent in AG Dillon Pre-IPO Stock 2024 Vintage Index- $870m raise at $13.4b post-money valuation- $200m in capital for company- $670m in secondaries for existing shareholder liquidity- $13.4b valuation is +25% from current secondary market valuation of $10.7b01:31 | Ramp raises at $7.6b- Spend management company- $150m raises at $7.6b post-money valuation- 4x revenue increase vs 2022- Surpassed $300m annualized revenue summer 2023- 25,000 business customers- Capital will be used to integrate AI into product suite- $7.65b valuation is +14% from current secondary market valuation of $6.7b02:44 | Klarna’s new US credit card- Consumer credit tech company, constituent in AG Dillon Pre-IPO Stock 2024 Vintage Index- Launching a credit card; pay by (a) buy now pay later installments or (b) revolving credit line- Physical card and tap-and-pay with Apple/Google- Up to 10% cash back on Klarna shopping marketplace app (like Amazon marketplace)- $9.8b secondary market implied valuation, +45.6% vs its last primary round in Jul 202204:16 | AI clones in Hollywood- Creative Artists Agency creating AI avatars of Brad Pitt, Reese Witherspoon- Clear Angle Studios and Racket Sound scan/capture the actors’ bodily and vocal characteristics- Actors have ownership of their digital likenesses- Applications; reshooting scenes, dubbing in different languages05:42 | Mistral raises at $5b- AI large language models for developers to access with APIs- Raising at a $5b valuation- $2b valuation last round in Dec 2023- $3b valuation increase in just 4 months!06:54 | Anduril autonomous submarine for Australia Navy- Defense technology company, constituent in AG Dillon Pre-IPO Stock 2024 Vintage Index- Delivered Ghost Shark autonomous submarine for Australian Navy- $90m contract for 3 Ghost Sharks- $18.7b secondary market implied valuation, +39% vs its last primary round in Dec 202208:38 | Revolut changes bank partners in US- Mobile banking company, constituent in AG Dillon Pre-IPO Stock 2024 Vintage Index- Changes partner banks from Metropolitan Commercial Bank to Community Federal Savings Bank- Metropolitan Commercial Bank fined $30m by the Fed/NY State banking regulators re: compliance issues for 3rd party program, MovoCash … could have contributed to decision- No changes to product features or pricing- $19.1b secondary market implied valuation, -42% from its last primary round in Jul 202109:33 | Pre-IPO +0.64% for week, +20.29% for last 1yr- Week winners: Chime +17.2%, Ramp +3.5%, Stripe +1.5%, Chainalysis +1.2%, Bytedance +1.1%- Week losers: OpenAI -2.7%, Anthropic -1.9%, Groq -1.5%, Flexport -0.9%, Revolut -0.7%- Top valuations: ByteDance $289b, SpaceX $185b, OpenAI $100b, Stripe $74b, Databricks $42b10:20 | -0.23% 2024 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index- www.agdillon.com/index to see all 20 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Indexes- 2024 Vintage Index top contributors since inception: Stripe +56%, Rippling +50%, Klarna +32%, Revolut +28%- 2024 Vintage Index top detractors since inception: None. All 10 constituents are in positive territory. - Looking at all 20 vintages … here are the winners and losers for the week; …winners = Chime +17.2%, Automation Anywhere +1.8%, Stripe 1.5% and…losers = OpenAI -2.7%, Anthropic -1.9%, Revolut -0.7%- Chime is in the 2021, 2022, and 2023 Vintage Indexes; 3% to 4% weight in these indexes so not a material impact to overall TVPI for indexes
E112: OpenAI extends $86b tender, ByteDance/TikTok stock buyback!, Humane AI Pin officially launches, Revolut’s India regulatory approval
Apr 15 2024
E112: OpenAI extends $86b tender, ByteDance/TikTok stock buyback!, Humane AI Pin officially launches, Revolut’s India regulatory approval
00:08 | ByteDance/TikTok stock buyback!- Expanding Q4 2023 buyback to non-US employees- $171/share for employees, $145/share for former employees- $112b in 2023 annualized revenue (run rate as of YTD Q3 2023)- $285b current secondary market valuation- Meta, about same revenue, at $1.32 trillion market cap01:09 | OpenAI extends $86b tender- Extending $86b tender to former employees- $150/share price- Revenue: $2.0b in Dec 2023 annualized, $5.0b in Dec 2024 forecast- $103b current secondary market valuation based on $150/share price02:14 | Humane AI Pin officially launches- Alternative to a smartphone, pin onto your shirt- Engage by talking to the AI Pin- $699 for AI Pin + $24/month subscription- Rabbit R1 is main competitor; “large action model” is very cool- Closed in Series C in Jul 2023 raising $100m at a $850m valuation03:36 | Revolut’s India regulatory approval - Reserve Bank of India approves for Prepaid Payment Instruments, including prepaid cards and wallets- Revolut already has RBI approval for Category-II Authorized Money Exchange Dealer, multi-currency forex cards, and cross-border remittance services- Received bank approval from Mexican regulators last week- $19.2b secondary market valuation, -42% from its last primary round in Jul 202104:44 | Pre-IPO +0.38% for week, +20.43% for last 1yr- Week winners: Groq +10.8%, Klarna +5.1%, Neuralink +3.8%, ConsenSys +2.9%, Hugging Face +2.7%- Week losers: Ramp -17.9%, Chime -1.3%, Cohere -1.1%, Chainalysis -0.8%- Top valuations: ByteDance $286b, SpaceX $185b, OpenAI $103b, Stripe $94b, Databricks $42b05:38 | +0.98% 2024 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index- www.agdillon.com/index to see all 20 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Indexes- 2024 Vintage Index top contributors since inception: Stripe +54%, Rippling +50%, Revolut +28%- 2024 Vintage Index top detractors since inception: None. All 10 constituents are in positive territory. - Looking at all 20 vintages … here are the winners and losers for the week; …winners = Automation Anywhere +22.3%, Klarna +5.1%, Databricks +2.3% and…losers = Tanium -3.2%, Chime -1.3%- Automation Anywhere is only in the 2020 Vintage Index. It has a 2% current weight in the index so not a major impact to TVPI.
E110: Rubrik IPO, $5.7b valuation; OpenAI 600,000 business users; SpaceX Starship test #4 in early May; Starlink going live in Indonesia; Mexico approves Revolut Bank; Anduril wins US Army mandate; Klarna better vs credit cards! | Pre-IPO Stock Market Upd
Apr 5 2024
E110: Rubrik IPO, $5.7b valuation; OpenAI 600,000 business users; SpaceX Starship test #4 in early May; Starlink going live in Indonesia; Mexico approves Revolut Bank; Anduril wins US Army mandate; Klarna better vs credit cards! | Pre-IPO Stock Market Upd
00:10 | Rubrik IPO, $5.7b valuation- $5.7b secondary market valuation- 1,700 business customers- $627m fiscal 2024 revenue- 91% of revenue is subscriptions- $354m in net loss- First major unprofitable tech IPO of the year01:29 | OpenAI 600,000 business users- Custom model program is driving growth in business users- 600,000 business users, +300% increase from Jan 2024 (just 3 months ago)- OpenAI raised a round at $100b valuation in Jan 202402:37 | SpaceX Starship test #4 in early May- 3rd test flight was a massive success- Starship has 5x payload capacity of Falcon 9 rocket- Starship has more revenue, less cost per launch vs Falcon 9- $187b secondary market valuation, +3.9% vs Dec 2023 tender round04:10 | Starlink going live in Indonesia- Starlink already in Malaysia, Philippines- 2b+ people have no access to internet globally- Starlink has a satellite internet monolopy- $50 to $110 per month satellite internet fee, based on location- We estimate Starlink to be $1.0 trillion valuation business, at scale05:26 | Mexico approves Revolut Bank- Mexican banking regulator approves Revolut Bank to operate in Mexico- 35 million customers across 38 countries- most downloaded finance app in 9 countries, top 3 position in financial app rankings in 15 European countries- $19.2 billion secondary market valuation, -42% from its last primary round in Jul 202105:26 | Anduril wins US Army mandate- Develop a software framework essential for testing and deploying payloads for future robotic combat vehicles, or RCVs- Contract value and duration not disclosed- $11.6 billion valuation, +37% from its last primary round in Dec 202205:26 | Klarna buy now pay later better vs credit cards!- 41% of US credit card users carry revolving debt, 23% pay late fees, 8.5% were delinquent (Q4 2023)- 31% of Klarna’s US buy now pay later users paid early, 65% on time, 4% incurred late fees, default rate under 1%- $9.3b secondary market valuation, +38% from its last primary round in Jul 202207:16 | Pre-IPO +0.88% for week, +12.59% for last 1yr- Week winners: Ramp +32.0%, Scale AI +13.6%, Revolut +5.7%, Anthropic +4.1%, Chainalysis +3.5%- Week losers: Discord -5.6%, Groq -2.64%, Chime -1.6%, Cohere -1.6%, Databricks -1.2% … we picked up research coverage of Groq this week- Top valuations: ByteDance $285b, SpaceX $187b, OpenAI $96b, Stripe $94b, Databricks $41b … We got our hands on some new data … the actual share price of the last primary rounds. Where we have that data it is now included and it has materially impacted several companies’ implied secondary market valuations. Make sure to look at the full report to understand the company by company impact.08:01 | +2.23% 2024 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index- www.agdillon.com/index to see all 20 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Indexes- 2024 Vintage Index top contributors since inception: Stripe +53%, Rippling +49%, Revolut +28%- 2024 Vintage Index top detractors since inception: Just Epic Games but they’re only down 1% … so really no detractors in the 2024 Vintage Index - Looking at all 20 vintages … here are the winners and losers for the week; …winners = Tanium +33.8%, Revolut +5.7%, Anthropic +4.1% and…losers = Discord -5.6%, Chime -1.6%, Databricks -1.2%- Tanium is in four Vintage Indexes; 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2021. Tanium only has a 1% to 2% current weight in any of those four indexes so this 34% increase is not a major impact to the Indexes’ performance.- Revolut is in the 2022, 2023, and 2024 index. Anthropic is in just the 2024 index- Discord is in the 2022 and 2023 index
E108: Scale AI $13 valuation, Cohere $5b valuation, Amazon $4b total into Anthropic, $26b Canva buys Affinity, xAI launches Grok-1.5, +2.65% 2024 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index | Pre-IPO Stock Market Update – Mar 29, 2024
Mar 29 2024
E108: Scale AI $13 valuation, Cohere $5b valuation, Amazon $4b total into Anthropic, $26b Canva buys Affinity, xAI launches Grok-1.5, +2.65% 2024 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index | Pre-IPO Stock Market Update – Mar 29, 2024
00:10 | Cohere $5b valuation- Cohere has LLM and competes with OpenAI ChatGPT- PSP Investments (Canadian pension fund) to co-lead $500m round- 227x revenue multiple!- $22m annualized revenue as of Feb 2024- $4.3b current secondary market valuation01:29 | Amazon $4b total into Anthropic- Amazon puts in $2.75b for a $4.0b into Anthropic- Amazon largest investment in external company in 30 yr history- Anthropic to spend $4b at AWS and $3b at Google Cloud (also an investor)- $18.4b valuation02:37 | $26b Canva buys Affinity- Acquisition to drive corporate division revenue- $2.1b in 2023 revenue, +50% yoy- 13x revenue multiple- Tender closed in Jan 2024, Canva +5.8% to $27.5b in secondary04:10 | Scale AI $13 valuation- Accel targeting to lead next round- $13b is +103% above $6.4b secondary market valuation- $675m in 2023 revenue, +150% yoy- 19x revenue multiple05:26 | xAI launches Grok-1.5- rival to Google Gemini and OpenAI ChatGPT- Grok is available through X (formerly Twitter)- Rumored to raise $6b at a $20b valuation in Jan 2024, unconfirmed if that round closed07:16 | Pre-IPO +0.88% for week, +12.59% for last 1yr- Week winners: Rippling +11.0%, OpenAI +4.7%, Airtable +3.6%, Anduril +2.4%, SpaceX +2.1%- Week losers: Neuralink -2.8%, Chainalysis -2.7%, Chime -2.0%, Canva -1.6%, ConsenSys -0.5%- Top valuations: ByteDance $278b, SpaceX $187b, OpenAI $94b, Stripe $67b, Databricks $50b08:01 | +2.65% 2024 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index- Tempus looks to IPO, hires MStanley … in 2021 Vintage Index, 5.1% index weight, -26% since index inception- Week Winners: Rippling +11.0%, OpenAI +5.0%, Anduril +2.4% … all three in 2024 Vintage Index- Week Losers: Tanium -22.7%, Chime -2.0%, Revolut -0.1% … Tanium in 4 Vintage Indexes; 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021 … only 1-2% index weight so negative performance will have little impact on indexes’ performance- 2024 Vintage Index Update: +2.65% for week, +32.7% since inception, Epic Games and Rippling drive 68% of since inception return, Epic +178% since index inception
E104: Stripe 2024 revenue at $17b?, only 3.8x multiple!; Telegram’s $30b valuation!; SpaceX Starship successful 3rd test-flight; Tiktok US at $153b valuation if standalone biz? | Pre-IPO Stock Market Update – Mar 15, 2024
Mar 15 2024
E104: Stripe 2024 revenue at $17b?, only 3.8x multiple!; Telegram’s $30b valuation!; SpaceX Starship successful 3rd test-flight; Tiktok US at $153b valuation if standalone biz? | Pre-IPO Stock Market Update – Mar 15, 2024
00:07 | Stripe 2024 revenue at $17b?, only 3.8x multiple!- $1 trillion in 2023 total payment volume, +25% vs 2022- Stripe 15yrs vs PayPal 23yrs to get to $1t- Estimated $17b in 2023 revenue, positive cash flow- $65b Feb 2024 tender, 3.8x revenue multiple is a steal02:19 | Telegram’s $30b valuation!- 900m monthly active users, +80% vs 2021; on track for 1b users by Dec 2024- "hundreds of millions of dollars" from advertising and subscriptions revenue- $30b valuation from investors- Seeking IPO to maintain independence and drive company valuation04:12 | SpaceX Starship successful 3rd test-flight- Starship is 400 feet tall, powered by 33 rockets- 5x payload of current Falcon9 rocket with lower cost per launch; incremental revenue AND profit- Starlink estimated to have a $103b valuation ($3.4b in annual recurring revenue?)06:24 | Tiktok US at $153b valuation if standalone biz?- Steven Mnuchin, former US Treasury Secretary, seeks to buy TikTok- US government is reviewing a bill that would require ByteDance to divest TikTok US biz- TikTok US has 170m users- ByteDance 2023 revenue is $120b (+20% vs 2022) and a $268b valuation, only a 2.4x revenue multiple (LOW!)- TikTok US has $16b of 2023 revenue, applying Meta revenue multiple (9.58x) it’s a $153b valuation business- Massive valuation unlock position for TikTok US by getting out of the ByteDance negative overhang?09:09 | Pre-IPO +3.28% for week, +3.23% for last 1yr- Week winners: Chime +28.6%, eToro +21.9%, ScaleAI +20.5%, Ramp +12.3%, Flexport +7.2%- Week losers: Consensys -9.8%, OpenAI -4.5%, ByteDance -3.1%, Rippling -2.1%, Chainalysis -1.7%- Top valuations: ByteDance $276b, SpaceX $184b, OpenAI $103b, Stripe $68b, Databricks $49b
E102: IPOs return in 2024?, $1.5 trillion Starlink valuation, MStanley Wealth’s new pre-IPO stock trading desk, X debt restructuring, Monzo’s $5b valuation, Revolut+Consensys Metamask product, Apple kills Epic Games in EU, Webull $7.3b SPAC deal | Pre-IPO
Mar 15 2024
E102: IPOs return in 2024?, $1.5 trillion Starlink valuation, MStanley Wealth’s new pre-IPO stock trading desk, X debt restructuring, Monzo’s $5b valuation, Revolut+Consensys Metamask product, Apple kills Epic Games in EU, Webull $7.3b SPAC deal | Pre-IPO
00:10 | IPOs return in 2024?; Joshua Brown, Michael Batnick, CFA, + The Compound- Nasdaq has to be performing well for IPOs to come and perform well- the IPOs that are coming, e.g. Reddit, Inc., need to do well post-IPO if we want to see the flood gates openSubscribe to Josh & Michael's The Compound….- YouTube = https://lnkd.in/e3tnDAXc- Podcast = https://lnkd.in/gN4eiaaE02:54 | $1.5 trillion Starlink valuation- Starlink has satellite internet monopoly- 2.6 billion people (33% of global population) have no access to internet- Starlink charges a monthly subscription fee of $50 to $110 per month- 10% market share, or 260m subscribers, at $50/month is $156b in annual recurring revenue- 10x revenue multiple that’s a $1.56 trillion valuation06:02 | MStanley Wealth’s new pre-IPO stock trading desk- MStanley Wealth clients can now purchase pre-IPO stocks- 1,000 stocks available- Congrats to MStanley … this is a great solution/business- AG Dillon & Co offers this same service to indie RIAs/IBDs- AG Dillon SpaceX Fund and AG Dillon OpenAI Fund accepting new investors now07:34 | X debt restructuring- MStanley and other lenders looking to restructure $12.5b in X debt- Banks seek to derisk position, negotiations have not been successful- X placed a $19b internal valuation on the business in Oct 2023 which is down from its $44b purchase price in late 202208:52 | Monzo Bank’s $5b valuation- Alphabet, HongShan (Sequoia China), and Tencent invested $430m- 88% yoy revenue increase, profitable for 2023- 9.4 million UK customers- Last round was in Jan 2022 at a $4.6b valuation10:19 | Revolut + Consensys’ Metamask new product- Revolut Ramp steamlines purchase of crypto in Metamask wallets- 20 cryptocurrencies converted from fiat in Revolut bank accounts or via Visa/Mastercard payments- Revolut has a $17.7b secondary market valuation, -46% from its last primary round in Jul 2021- ConsenSys has a $7.7b secondary market valuation, +9.5% from its last primary round in Mar 202211:56 | Apple kills Epic Games in EU- Apple revoked developer account for Epic Games Sweden AB- Epic cannot reintroduce Fortnite to iOS in Europe- Epic has a $22.5b secondary market valuation, +26% from last primary round in Feb 2024. Disney invested in that round.13:30 | Webull Financial $7.3b SPAC deal to close in 2H 202414:35 | Pre-IPO +0.39% for week- Week winners: Chainalysis 15.5%, Epic Games 9.8%, Consensys 6.6%, Brex 4.6%, Stripe 2.2%- Week losers: Flexport -11.9%, Neuralink -6.3%, Anthropic -4.9%, Discord -2.5%, Airtable -1.4%- Top valuations: ByteDance $284b, SpaceX $184b, OpenAI $108b, Stripe $66b, Databricks $49b