UCLA Housing Voice

In a previous episode we discussed Auckland’s unprecedented upzoning and its effect on housing production and land prices. This time we’re joined by Eleanor West to talk about the political, social, and economic conditions that made the reforms possible — not only in Auckland, but across New Zealand.Show notes:West, E. (2024). Up-zoning New Zealand: the localisation of a globally mobile policy idea (Policy paper no. 003). University of Auckland: Economic Policy Centre, Urban and Spatial Economics Hub. West, E., & Garlick, M. (2024). Upzoning New Zealand. Works in Progress.Episode 45 of UCLA Housing Voice with Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy, on the effects of Auckland’s upzoning on housing production and land prices.Greenaway-McGrevy, R., & Phillips, P. C. (2023). The impact of upzoning on housing construction in Auckland. Journal of Urban Economics, 136, 103555.Greenaway-McGrevy, R. (2023). Can zoning reform reduce housing costs? Evidence from rents in Auckland. Economic Policy Centre. WP016, 203.Two of the recent articles on how people are more skeptical of supply-and-demand arguments for housing compared to other goods and services, while also being very persuadable:Nall, C., Elmendorf, C. S., & Oklobdzija, S. (2024). Folk economics and the persistence of political opposition to new housing. Available at SSRN 4266459.Elmendorf, C. S., Nall, C., & Oklobdzija, S. (2024). Do Housing Supply Skeptics Learn? Evidence from Economics and Advocacy Treatments. Available at SSRN 4955033.Episode 23 of UCLA Housing Voice with Michael Hankinson, on the relationship between at-large vs district-level political representation and housing supply.YouTube: The Spinoff vs the worst Auckland City Council meeting of all time.

Inclusionary zoning policies are commonly used to produce affordable housing and “social mix” in the U.S., but what about in Europe, where public housing and strong social welfare programs have historically met those needs? Anna Granath Hansson shares research on emerging inclusionary housing policies in the Scandinavian countries of Sweden, Norway, and Denmark.Show notes:Granath Hansson, A., Sørensen, J., Nordahl, B. I., & Tophøj Sørensen, M. (2024). Contrasting inclusionary housing initiatives in Denmark, Sweden, and Norway: how the past shapes the present. Housing Studies, 1-22.Previous episodes on inclusionary housing/inclusionary zoning:Episode 77: Upzoning With Strings Attached with Jacob Krimmel and Maxence ValentinEpisode 31: Inclusionary Zoning with Emily HamiltonEpisode 79: Who Pays For Inclusionary Zoning with Shane PhillipsMore information on the EU court case about Denmark’s “ghetto law.”Sightline article on Portland’s fully-funded affordability mandate.

Inclusionary zoning policies use the market to produce affordable housing, but nothing comes for free. So who pays? Shane takes the guest seat to discuss his analysis of IZ in Los Angeles, making the case that it’s not developers or high-income renters who bear the cost, but all renters — poor, middle income, and wealthy alike.Show notes:Phillips, S. (2024). Modeling Inclusionary Zoning’s Impact on Housing Production in Los Angeles: Tradeoffs and Policy Implications. UC Berkeley Terner Center for Housing Innovation and UCLA Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies. UCLA Housing Voice Episode 31: Inclusionary Zoning with Emily HamiltonManville, M., Monkkonen, P., Gray, N., & Phillips, S. (2023). Does Discretion Delay Development? The impact of approval pathways on multifamily housing’s time to permit. Journal of the American Planning Association, 89(3), 336-347.UCLA Housing Voice Episode 59: The Costs of Discretion with Paavo Monkkonen and Mike Manville (conversation about our research on the TOC approval process).Elmendorf, C. S., Marantz, N., & Monkkonen, P. (2021). A Review of California’s Process for Determining, and Accommodating, Regional Housing Needs. Background paper prepared for the California State Auditor.Wikipedia page on the Laffer curve.Phillips, S., & Ofek, M. (2022). How Will the Measure ULA Transfer Tax Initiative Impact Housing Production in Los Angeles? UCLA Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies.UCLA Housing Voice Episode 77: Upzoning With Strings Attached with Jacob Krimmel and Maxence Valentin.Details on the reduction of inclusionary requirements approved by the San Francisco Board of Supervisors on a 10–1 vote.UCLA Housing Voice Episode 78: Building Height and Construction Costs with Anthony Orlando.

Cities have lived with exclusionary zoning for decades, if not generations. Is inclusionary zoning the answer? Inclusionary zoning, or IZ, requires developers to set aside a share of units in new buildings for low- or moderate-income households, seeking to increase the supply of affordable homes and integrate neighborhoods racially and socioeconomically. But how well does it accomplish these goals? This week we’re joined by the Mercatus Center’s Dr. Emily Hamilton to discuss her research on how IZ programs have impacted homebuilding and housing prices in the Washington, D.C. region, and the ironic reality that the success of inclusionary zoning relies on the continued existence of exclusionary zoning. Also, Shane and Mike rant about nexus studies. Originally aired in 2022.Show notes:Hamilton, E. (2021). Inclusionary zoning and housing market outcomes. Cityscape, 23(1), 161-194.Manville, M., & Osman, T. (2017). Motivations for growth revolts: Discretion and pretext as sources of development conflict. City & Community, 16(1), 66-85.Bento, A., Lowe, S., Knaap, G. J., & Chakraborty, A. (2009). Housing market effects of inclusionary zoning. Cityscape, 7-26.Li, F., & Guo, Z. (2022). How Does an Expansion of Mandatory Inclusionary Housing Affect Housing Supply? Evidence From London (UK). Journal of the American Planning Association, 88(1), 83-96.Schleicher, D. (2012). City unplanning. Yale Law Journal, 7(122), 1670-1737.Phillips, S. (2022). Building Up the" Zoning Buffer": Using Broad Upzones to Increase Housing Capacity Without Increasing Land Values. UCLA Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies.Background on the inclusionary zoning program in Los Angeles (struck down in court, but later enabled by the state legislature).More on housing voucher policy in our interview with Rob Collinson.More on minimum lot size reform in our interview with M. Nolan Gray.A blog post questioning whether new market-rate housing actually “creates” demand for low-income housing.Los Angeles Affordable Housing Linkage Fee nexus study.

We’ve long known that building more homes helps keep prices in check at the regional or metro area level, but what about the house down the street? Evan Mast shares two research studies that shed light on this important and controversial question. Originally aired in 2021. Updated show notes.Show notes:Mast, E. (2023). JUE Insight: The effect of new market-rate housing construction on the low-income housing market. Journal of Urban Economics, 133, 103383.Asquith, B. J., Mast, E., & Reed, D. (2023). Local effects of large new apartment buildings in low-income areas. Review of Economics and Statistics, 105(2), 359-375.Bratu, C., Harjunen, O., & Saarimaa, T. (2023). JUE Insight: City-wide effects of new housing supply: Evidence from moving chains. Journal of Urban Economics, 133, 103528.Li, X. (2022). Do new housing units in your backyard raise your rents? Journal of Economic Geography, 22(6), 1309-1352.Guerrieri, V., Hartley, D., & Hurst, E. (2013). Endogenous gentrification and housing price dynamics. Journal of Public Economics, 100, 45-60.Phillips, S., Manville, M., & Lens, M. (2021). Research Roundup: The Effect of Market-Rate Development on Neighborhood Rents. UCLA Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies.Diamond, R., McQuade, T., & Qian, F. (2019). The effects of rent control expansion on tenants, landlords, and inequality: Evidence from San Francisco. American Economic Review, 109(9), 3365-94.Liu, L., McManus, D. A., & Yannopoulos, E. (2020). Geographic and Temporal Variation in Housing Filtering Rates. Available at SSRN.“Opportunities and Obstacles for Rental Housing Registries,” Jan. 20 Lewis Center event with Assembly member Buffy Wicks and Catherine Bracy. https://youtu.be/vaDTWHxk-I8

Building taller lets us fit more homes on valuable urban land, but more homes doesn’t necessarily mean more affordable. Anthony Orlando joins to share his research on why taller isn’t always better — and the circumstances where it definitely is.Show notes:Eriksen, M. D., & Orlando, A. W. (2022). Returns to scale in residential construction: The marginal impact of building height. Real Estate Economics, 50(2), 534-564.Episode 69 of UCLA Housing Voice, with Mike Eriksen discussing the Low Income Housing Tax Credit and “Crowd Out”Giuliano, G., Redfearn, C., Agarwal, A., & He, S. (2012). Network Accessibility and Employment Centres. Urban Studies, 49(1), 77-95.An, B., Orlando, A. W., & Rodnyansky, S. (2019). The Physical Legacy of Racism: how redlining cemented the modern built environment. Available at SSRN 3500612.Eriksen, M. D., & Orlando, A. W. (2024). A Cost Decomposition of Break-Even Rents for New Multifamily Housing Development. Journal of Housing Economics, 102012.

Changing zoning rules to allow taller and denser buildings may cause land values to go up, and public officials may try to “capture” this added value by requiring affordable units in new developments. But what happens when costs and benefits are out of balance? Seattle offers a cautionary tale.Show notes:Krimmel, J., & Wang, B. (2023). Upzoning With Strings Attached: Evidence From Seattle’s Affordable Housing Mandate. Cityscape, 25(2), 257-278.City of Seattle webpage for the Mandatory Housing Affordability program.Lebret, D., Liu, C., & Valentin, M. (2024). Carrot and Stick Zoning. UEA 13th European Meeting.Manville, M., & Osman, T. (2017). Motivations for Growth Revolts: Discretion and pretext as sources of development conflict. City & Community, 16(1), 66-85.Phillips, S. (2022). Building Up the" Zoning Buffer": Using Broad Upzones to Increase Housing Capacity Without Increasing Land Values. UCLA Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies.

When the demand for housing rises, which kinds of neighborhoods respond by building more homes, and which just get more expensive? Nathaniel Baum-Snow joins to discuss his research on the different responses of urban, suburban, and exurban neighborhoods, and the many forms “supply” can take.Show notes:Baum-Snow, N., & Han, L. (2024). The Microgeography of Housing Supply. Journal of Political Economy, 132(6), 1897-1946.Alameldin, M., & Karlinsky, S. 2024). Construction Defect Liability in California: How Reform Could Increase Affordable Homeownership Opportunities. UC Berkeley Terner Center for Housing Innovation.Saiz, A. (2010). The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(3), 1253-1296.UCLA Lewis Center research on housing demolition and redevelopment trends in Los Angeles.

We often talk about residential segregation by race or income, but we rarely explore it in the literal sense — as in segregation of residences: of one kind of housing from another. Ann Owens joins to discuss her research on how segregation manifests itself in our built environment in cities and neighborhoods across the U.S.Show notes:Owens, A. (2019). Building inequality: Housing segregation and income segregation. Sociological Science, 6, 497.Rich, P., & Owens, A. (2023). Neighborhood–School structures: A new approach to the joint study of social contexts. Annual review of sociology, 49(1), 297-317.Check out the interactive segregation map and data tool created by Ann and the rest of the Segregation Explorer team.And check out Propinquity, the site created by Andre Comandon and Paavo comparing segregation in cities across a dozen countries.Lens, M. C., & Monkkonen, P. (2016). Do strict land use regulations make metropolitan areas more segregated by income? Journal of the American Planning Association, 82(1), 6-21.Kain, J. F., & Quigley, J. M. (1972). Note on owner's estimate of housing value. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 67(340), 803-806.Andre Comandon’s dissertation, “Ethnoracial Diversification at the Edges of Exclusion.”Owens, A., & Smith, R. B. (2023). Producing affordable housing in higher-opportunity neighborhoods: Incentives in California’s LIHTC program. Journal of Urban Affairs, 1-29.

Black households make up a disproportionate share of rent assistance recipients. Andrew Fenelon discusses how a “two-tiered approach to housing support" favoring white homeowners helped create the disparity.Show notes:Fenelon, A. (2024). Race, housing policy, and the demographic and spatial structure of modern housing programs: Who receives rental assistance and where do they live? Journal of Urban Affairs, 46(5), 944-961.Streets.MN article about the Bryant Avenue Bike Path (with photos).Episode 17 of UCLA Housing Voice, discussing housing vouchers with Rob Collinson.Episode 37 of UCLA Housing Voice, discussing public housing with Akira Drake Rodriguez.Tax Policy Center analysis of the costs of U.S. homeownership assistance programs.

Before the 2000s, French real estate developers were prohibited from building social housing. Today, they build more than half of it. Julie Pollard shares how two seemingly unrelated policies came together to make this rapid shift possible.Show notes:Pollard, J. (2023). The political conditions of the rise of real-estate developers in French housing policies. Environment and Planning C: Politics and Space, 41(2), 274-291.Read about the Clichy-Batignolles eco-district (in English).Episode 20 of UCLA Housing Voice with Magda Maaoui (2022), on France’s social housing production and the SRU Law.Phillips, S. (2024). Lessons from California's Homekey Program: Adding Affordable Housing by Buying Market-Rate Apartment Buildings. UCLA Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies.

In this episode, Shane combines insights from a recent trip to Tokyo with official data on housing production, affordability, land use policy, and more.Show notes:Twitter thread of photos and observations during my trip.Episode 16 of the UCLA Housing Voice Podcast with Jiro Yoshida, on Japanese Housing PolicyJapanese population by prefecture.JR East Yamanote Line timetable.Mainichi article on recovering transit ridership on the Yamanote Line.The myth of pedestrian infrastructure in a world of cars, by Joe Cortright in City Observatory.Data on housing starts vs. existing home sales in the US, Japan, and selected other countries – see pg. 137.Report comparing Japanese and United Kingdom homebuilding practices in the early 2000s, by James Barlow and Ritsuko OzakiConstruction Physics articles on Toyota’s prefab homes and Japan’s skyscraper factories.Yoshida, J. (2021). Land scarcity, high construction volume, and distinctive leases characterize Japan’s rental housing markets. Brookings Institution.Suzuki, M., Asami, Y., & Shimizu, C. (2021). Housing rent rigidity under downward pressure: Unit-level longitudinal evidence from Tokyo. Journal of Housing Economics, 52, 101762.Excerpt from Carmageddon: How Cars Make Life Worse and What to Do About It, written by Daniel Knowles and published by Abrams Press.Center for Neighborhood Technology’s Housing + Transportation Index.Iwata, S., & Yamaga, H. (2004). The costs and benefits of tenancy rent control in Tokyo. Institute of Policy and Planning Sciences, Discussion Paper Series, (1081).Guide to Japan’s zoning code.Urban Kchoze blog post on Japanese zoning.Zoning map of Tokyo.

Each year, more money is invested in China's housing market than any other. Lan Deng shares how the market was shaped and the heavy role the government still plays, and what housing in China looks like today.Show notes:Deng, L., & Chen, J. (2019). Market development, state intervention, and the dynamics of new housing investment in China. Journal of Urban Affairs, 41(2), 223-247.Deng, L., Li, S., Zuo, W., & Han, Y. (2024). Housing production and the structural transformation of China’s real estate development industry. Housing Studies, 1-26.News article and video of rail line through apartment building in Chongqing.Monkkonen, P., Deng, G., & Hu, W. (2019). Does developers' ownership structure shape their market behavior? Evidence from state owned enterprises in Chengdu, Sichuan, 2004–2011. Cities, 84, 151-158.UCLA Housing Voice interview with Chua Beng Huat on Singapore’s Public Housing program.

For this episode, we take a trip to Tokyo to learn from the successes and shortcomings of Japanese housing policy. Known for high rates of production — Tokyo builds five times more housing than California, per capita — and relatively affordable housing, Japan also struggles with poor maintenance and rapid degradation of its buildings. Professor Jiro Yoshida of Pennsylvania State University and the University of Tokyo joins us to talk about the unique demographic, economic, and geographic conditions that led to Japan’s current housing context, and the underrecognized influence of depreciation and tax policy in the choices we make about where and how to live.

What makes people more or less supportive of dense housing in their communities? David Kaufmann and Michael Wicki surveyed 12,000 residents in six of the largest U.S. and European cities to find out.Show notes:Wicki, M., Hofer, K., & Kaufmann, D. (2022). Planning instruments enhance the acceptance of urban densification. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(38), e2201780119.Debrunner, G., Hofer, K., Wicki, M., Kauer, F., & Kaufmann, D. (2024). Housing Precarity in Six European and North American Cities: Threatened by the Loss of a Safe, Stable, and Affordable Home. Journal of the American Planning Association, 1-17.

Subsidized affordable housing development reduces costs for lower-income households directly. It also reduces costs indirectly, by increasing the overall supply of housing — or does it? Michael Eriksen joins to discuss the issue of “crowd out” in affordable housing production.Show notes:Eriksen, M. D., & Rosenthal, S. S. (2010). Crowd out effects of place-based subsidized rental housing: New evidence from the LIHTC program. Journal of Public Economics, 94(11-12), 953-966.Cummings, J. L., & DiPasquale, D. (1999). The Low‐Income Housing Tax Credit: An analysis of the first ten years. Housing Policy Debate, 10(2), 251-307.Click here for Pathways Home, our eight-part series on homelessness.Baum-Snow, N., & Marion, J. (2009). The effects of low income housing tax credit developments on neighborhoods. Journal of Public Economics, 93(5-6), 654-666.Diamond, R., & McQuade, T. (2019). Who wants affordable housing in their backyard? An equilibrium analysis of low-income property development. Journal of Political Economy, 127(3), 1063-1117.

In this final installment of the Pathways Home series on homelessness policy and research, we discuss lessons and key takeaways from the previous seven episodes with our UCLA colleague, Janey Rountree.Show notes:Click here to find all eight episodes of the Pathways Home limited series on homelessness.Blackwell, B., & Santillano, R. (2023). Do Time-Limited Subsidy Programs Reduce Homelessness for Single Adults? California Policy Lab.

Since 2009, homelessness among U.S. veterans has fallen by more than half. Among the overall population, it hasn’t budged. Monica Diaz and Shawn Liu of the Department of Veterans Affairs share some of the story behind the VA's success.Show notes:Read more about the VA Homeless Programs Office at their website.Khadduri, J., de Sousa, T., Andrichik, A., Prestera, E., Rush, K., Tano, C., and Wheeler, M. (2023). The 2023 Annual Homelessness Assessment Report (AHAR) to Congress. Part 1: Point-In-Time Estimates of Homelessness. U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Planning and Research.Colburn, G., & Aldern, C. P. (2022). Homelessness is a Housing Problem: How structural factors explain US patterns. University of California Press.O’Toole, T., & Kane, V. (2014). Return on Investment Analysis and Modeling (white paper). VA National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans, U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs.O'Flaherty, B. (2019). Homelessness research: A guide for economists (and friends). Journal of Housing Economics, 44, 1-25.

The Housing First approach starts with providing homes to chronically unhoused people, but it doesn’t stop there — and that’s what makes it so effective. Tim Aubry shares findings from a major Housing First study and the keys to a successful program.Show notes:Goering, P., Veldhuizen, S., Watson, A., Adair, C., Kopp, B., Latimer, E., Nelson, G., MacNaughton, E., Streiner, D., Rabouin, D., Ly, A., Powell, G., & Aubry, T., (2014). National Final Report: Cross-Site At Home/Chez Soi Project. Mental Health Commission of Canada.UCLA Housing Voice episode 64, with Beth Shinn, talking about effective interventions to family homelessness and a brief mention of Housing First.Aubry, T., Bloch, G., Brcic, V., Saad, A., Magwood, O., Abdalla, T., ... & Pottie, K. (2020). Effectiveness of permanent supportive housing and income assistance interventions for homeless individuals in high-income countries: a systematic review. The Lancet Public Health, 5(6), e342-e360.

What happens when you provide unhoused people with a large sum of money? Jiaying Zhao shares the results of a study in Vancouver, BC, which include reduced shelter use, more spending on food and rent, and no increase in spending on “temptation goods” like drugs and alcohol.Show notes:Dwyer, R., Palepu, A., Williams, C., Daly-Grafstein, D., & Zhao, J. (2023). Unconditional cash transfers reduce homelessness. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120(36), e2222103120.Mullainathan, S., & Shafir, E. (2013). Scarcity: Why Having Too Little Means So Much. Macmillan.Brisson, D., Calhoun, K. H., Coddington, L., Flaxman, Z. J., Johnsen, M., & Locke, S. (2023). Denver Basic Income Project Interim Report. Center for Housing and Homelessness Research, University of Denver Graduate School of Social Work.