War with China is a small but not negligible risk, says former Defence mandarin Mike Pezzullo. But Australia wasted more than a decade in preparing and equipping itself to face the danger

Myanmar’s generals have broken the state, says Nicholas Coppel – in 3 years they’ve caused civil war, economic collapse, a transnational crime wave and millions of internal refugees. China always preferred Aung San Suu Kyi and is even unhappier now

What’s left of Hamas is dug in beneath ruined Gaza. But Israel can’t obliterate their influence on Gaza's future, bleak as that might be, says Rodger Shanahan

Obama administration intelligence insider Robert Cardillo on China, North Korea, the Middle East and the night Osama bin Laden was killed

Shingo Yamagami confronted China’s Wolf Warrior diplomats. Denounced by Beijing, controversial in Canberra and even Tokyo, he’d do it all over again

Alexandre Dayant, whose team tracked $298bn of development aid flows into Southeast Asia, describes the region’s needs and its financiers’ expectations. China is key ...

Xanana Gusmao, likely Timor-Leste’s last leader from the ‘1975 generation’ that won freedom, is driven to harness his tiny nation’s future to Greater Sunrise gas. Michael Leach explains why it’s a critical mission

China is now a peer competitor to the US in the Asia-Pacific and aspires to be a global rival, influencing international and regional structures, says Dennis Richardson. What global powers need from each other and what other nations need from them is consistency and predictability. That’s why a second Trump presidency would risk stability in the Asia-Pacific and damage to American interests in the region   An Australian foreign service diplomat by training, Dennis Richardson also served in the departments of Immigration and Prime Minister and Cabinet. He was chief-of-staff to prime minister Bob Hawke (1990-91), director-general of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (1996-2005), Washington ambassador (2005-2010), head of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (2010-2012) and head of the Defence Department (2012-2017)

Move Forward Party was the surprise winner of Thailand’s May 14 election, moving quickly to a coalition with Pheu Thai, the other main pro-democracy, anti-military party. Thai politics expert Punchada Sirivunnabood explains why Move Forward faces high hurdles to forming a government, let alone realising its policies. Problems begin with the Senate opposed to lese majeste law reform, abolishing conscription, rewriting the constitution, allowing same-sex marriage. Then there’s the army ...   Punchada Sirivunnabood is an associate professor at Mahidol University in Thailand who researches and publishes on political parties, elections and politics in Southeast Asia. She has consulted to Thai parliamentary committees and is a visiting fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

Myanmar’s army coup in February 2021 has unleashed destructive forces the junta can’t control – a civil war, thousands of civilians killed, more than 1 million internal refugees. ASEAN governments are deeply divided and apparently unable to influence the regime. Charles Santiago, of ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights, says the army has “gone berserk” against civilians in disputed areas, sanctioned by junta leaders. He argues ASEAN’s best chance now of salvaging Myanmar is persuading China to take the lead as peacemaker.   Charles Santiago is chairman and co-founder of ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights and a member of the international parliamentary inquiry into global responses to the Myanmar crisis commissioned by APHR. He was a Democratic Action Party MP in the Malaysian parliament for 15 years until late 2022.

Japan has transitioned in a decade from strategic passivity to the “most important net exporter of security” in the Indo-Pacific, says Michael Green. This has profound implications for how the rest of the region deals with aggressively rising China and how the US handles alliance relations. Tokyo recognised and responded to China’s strategic threat earlier and more effectively than Washington, says Green, and this underscores why the US should take its China policy cues from Japan and other regional allies.   Dr Michael J Green is CEO of the United States Study Centre at Sydney University. He is an authority on modern Japanese geostrategy and politics. He was a presidential national security advisor in the George W Bush administration. His most recent book is Line of Advantage: Japan’s Grand Strategy in the Era of Abe Shinzo (2022)

Until Xi Jingping, no Chinese leader since Mao had subordinated economic development to Communist Party political domination, says Yasheng Huang. This has been developing since the early in Xi’s leadership and manifests in mounting hostility to the private sector and tightening CCP controls over every significant part of the economy. China is already paying a price in dramatically slowing domestic growth and, Yasheng argues, gradual deterioration of political and social stability will follow.    Yasheng Huang is Professor of Global Economic and Management at MIT Sloan School of Management. He is a leading authority on China’s political economy. Most recently he authored The Rise and Fall of the East: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability and Technology Brought China Success and Why They Might Lead to its Decline (2023)

Scott Morrison was prime minister when Australia fell into serious trade and political disputes with China, signed the AUKUS security pact which will deliver his country nuclear-powered submarines and revived the Quad security partnership with the US, Japan and India. These developments have serious, ongoing ramifications for the Indo-Pacific region. Morrison explains his thinking and the strategic challenges and objectives that led his government to the historic and regionally controversial AUKUS deal.   Scott Morrison was 30th Prime Minister of Australia, from 2018 until 2022, when his Liberal Party lost office at the national election. Morrison had previously served as Treasurer, Minister for Social Security and Minister for Immigration and Border Protection.