New Zealand seems to be waking up to an issue I thought would have caused more concern. As part of the bonfire of the public service, the Government seems to be eyeing cuts to our public research and development sector. Principally that means the Callaghan Institute, the Crown agency that employs about 300 people and has been the target of attack, particularly from David Seymour. He sees the agency's work as being a form of corporate welfare, a bugbear of ACT's. Other ministries and departments conduct significant research funded by the taxpayer. The Department of Conservation has developed major techniques and processes that have been adopted around the world. The Primary Industries ministry also funds valuable research, including work into climate change mitigation. It's feared that all this work will be affected as the Government saves costs in the backroom. Last week, Stats NZ revealed that private industry is starting to put their money where their mouth is. The New Zealand business sector has shown a robust increase in research and development (R&D) spending, reaching a new high of $3.7 billion in 2023. That's $540 million increase, or 17 percent, from the previous year, marking the largest annual growth since annual data collection began in 2018. There's value in research spending. So it would be short-sighted to reduce Governmental spending on it R&D funding cuts could mean we will lose our best and brightest scientists, like those at Callaghan, to overseas countries who are investing in science. As we enter a regime determined to cut spending I think it's good to remember a famous quote by Oscar Wilde. He said - " a fool is a person who knows the price of everything but the value of nothing". The worry is that the Government goes too far and starts to cut things of value. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It is fair to say the country is not in a good place right now. Job cuts dominate the headlines. A double-dip recession came true. Inflation is robbing us of our purchasing power. Last week an IPSOS poll found that 60 percent of us think that New Zealand is in decline and 65 percent believe that the economy is rigged to benefit the rich and the powerful. And when people bemoan our situation and wonder how we got here a common response is to blame the Labour Government and the Reserve Bank. A common refrain is Robertson blew all the money so we can't afford to do anything now, even something as important as paying our police more so they don't quit or leave the country. You also hear that Labour caused a debt so large our children and their children will be paying for it for decades to come. So I pricked up my ears last week when Mike Hosking talked to ASB economist Nick Tuffley about inflation and the economy in general. Mike asked him how bad was our economy and he said pretty bad but still nowhere near what happened after the GFC. To remind you, the GFC ended early in 2009 and John Key's government was in charge. To remedy the situation we borrowed, we opened up immigration and we went through austerity to a far greater degree than we're doing now. And it worked. Need I remind you that within 5 years we were described as having a rock-star economy. This is not to diminish the situation that we're in right now but it is to put a perspective on things. But Nick was also asked why inflation and bad economic tidings were still happening here when other economies like the States, the UK and Australia are bouncing back. Economies with far greater debt and spending. Tuffley essentially blamed our static productivity. He says considering we imported nearly 3 percent more population over the past 2 years our GDP should have raised, but it didn't. We seem incapable of making more money per person year on year. And it's a problem that we've had ever since Ruth Richardson's Mother of all Budgets early in the 90s. And it's a problem that exists no matter the colour of the government. It's something we need to look to ourselves for not something we can blame on the government. And it relates to the comments that Christopher Luxon made overseas that angered some when he boasted that New Zealand is now open for business. We've always been open for business. The real question is how much business are we open for?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Since we were last together, the collapse of television news and current affairs has continued. And with it, we have been subjected to a lot of highfalutin thinking about the metaphysical and cultural reasons why linear TV is dying. You know - go woke go broke. Or- this is because nobody trusts you, because you're all raving lefties. Meanwhile, Melissa Lee has been asked what she is going to do about it, when it's obvious that there's very little she can do. These are commercial entities that are suffering at the hands of market forces that have been long predicted to hit. Commercial broadcasting and journalism is an easy business model. Inventory control and labour costs. In other words, you can't employ any more people than the money you make from the advertising. Hearing that more than 300 were employed by Newshub was pretty revealing. That's a lot of salaries. For some perspective, NZME employs just over 200 for it's papers and radio and digital content. And the lid has been sinking steadily for a years now. That's because digital players are siphoning off $100 million a year in advertising content Despite the 6 o'clock news having the highest spot rates, they were unable to make the budget balance Faced with this environment I was confused after Warner took over 3 that they added to the news output with full-service late-night shows and more. They increased their costs at a time when revenue was going down. It seemed to me that no matter how woke or unwoke or how biased or unbiased, Newshub was increasingly modelled to lose money without a huge recalibration. Meanwhile, despite warning bells sounding about the theft of revenue by digital companies, our TV operators seemed timid to adapt. Facebook and Google sell clicks. They gain news content and then clicks when punters repost links. Yet the links from so many news operators continue to be free. There's a reason the Herald is now behind a paywall, so at least we can clip the ticket. When we did it the industry thought we were audacious. It's beginning to look very smart. Furthermore, TVNZ in particular has made a foray into the digital world with TVNZ+. But it's free to air and the ad inventory is so low it's better to watch it online with time shifting, thereby missing out on the ads that pay for the whole shebang. The model is broken not because of politics or bias but because of fear. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I vividly remember the first time I saw Christchurch Cathedral. I was 10 so it was 1973. I was on tour with the Auckland Boys Choir. It was winter and it was twilight and we went into the Square, which was bustling with cars and buses and Victorian buildings and a marvellous magic shop. People wore overcoats and scarves and there was the cathedral. It as like being transported to England. We went in to listen to the cathedral's boys choir performing Evensong and my choirmaster said they were the best in the land. And they were. I say this after the news that the restoration may be put on hold due to the escalating cost. I can't comprehend stopping something halfway through. It's too late to go back. Forward is the only way to go. To paraphrase the Prime Minister - we have passed through the decision gate and in passing that gate there can only be commitment to finishing the job, even if it seems to be escalating out of control. It's called aspiration. It's called determination. Perhaps this is the lack of ambition that our Prime Minister accuses us of. Opponents say tear it down, because in 100 years who will know the difference? But using that logic, why do anything outstanding? I'm reminded of the Notre Dame in Paris which will open to the public in December - 5 years and 7 months after being gutted by fire. They have harvested an entire oak forest for the timber and raised 2 billion dollars through donations. French billionaires are scrambling over each other to fund the thing so that their name lives on through generations. The cathedral is 160 years old this year. Notre Dame is 860 years old. But they're worth the same to their cities. Marking stones to the start of great cities. And in 100 years, who'll care how much it cost? Sometimes it seems that New Zealand knows the price of everything but the value of nothing. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I was not going to talk about dolphin-gate- but from first thing this morning, everyone was talking about it. Sir Russell Coutts has had an epic meltdown over the cancellation of Saturday racing of his SailGP series. He had to refund the spectator's tickets, which meant at least a third of his income went up in smoke. Now he's belittling all New Zealand for their bureaucratic torpor that stops go-getters like him getting their way. I would have raced. And if a foiling boat traveling at 80 kilometres an hour ran over a calving dolphin, turning it into sashimi, I could then say we learnt our lesson- and please pass the rice and the wasabi. But I think it's important to realise how we got here. Coutts sailed Lyttleton last year. With dolphin protocols. 1 race-day got delayed. He knew the Lyttleton problem but carried on. This year he decided to race in Auckland. He wanted to build a stadium and hospitality on the site of a former oil and chemical storage site. Auckland said you can't put people and food on poisoned land. Russell said stuff you and flounced back to Lyttleton. There was no investigation of alternative Auckland sites. Or even going to Wellington. He went back to Christchurch and signed a contract knowing all the protocols and the possibility of disruption. He knew the Lyttleton problem but carried on, hoping for the best. When the Saturday race was delayed because of a mammal on course the telly coverage, owned by Russell, promptly played a promo praising SailGP's respect for the environment. That they were powered by nature and they look after our marine mammal buddies. It was good press. Until the dolphin didn't move on. Then he unleashed a spray about New Zealand holding people like him back. I don't think it's in his construction to admit he made bad choices and to assume some personal responsibility. And then he tried to make it seem like he was a victim. I don't think this is a left versus right issue. Or a nature versus industry issue. It was all good until Sir Russell lost some money. So take a deep breath. Realise New Zealand loves the product. Put it on in an appropriate venue and let's move on, shall we? LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

So if you've listened to me for any length of time, you'll know I respect Liam Dann very much indeed. Liam is the Herald's Business Editor at Large. He hosts podcasts and writes stories about the business world and he's been at the NZ Herald for 21 years. He's at pains to stress he's not an economist. He's the guy who interviews economists and then translates their technical stuff into news we can all use and we need. He's just written a book called Barbecue Economics, which explains all this stuff for the average man and woman on the street. He also writes a column every Sunday, and yesterday he asked the question I've been asking myself for a long time. "Is the Government’s shock about this 'worse than expected' economy political theatre or just ignorance?" Last August, Nicola Willis stated the cupboard was bare, and we all knew that. They then campaigned on fixing it all up. Killing inflation. Solving the cost of living crisis. Building the missing infrastructure. And then on top of it all, giving up on $14.5 billion worth of tax revenue by giving us a tax cut. But some of us wondered that if the cupboard was indeed bare, was all this possible or was this exaggerated rhetoric to get votes based on some magical thinking that all will be fine in the end? Now the Finance Minister is saying the economy is worse than expected and maybe some of the policies can't happen. I'm not sure it is worse than expected, because the government's accounts have never been secret- thanks to the Fiscal Responsibility Act introduced in 1994 to stop nasty surprises. And people were warning National of this last year. Liam Dann reckons: "To put it generously, it looks like National was using best-case economic scenarios to justify policy promises that were marginal at best." The question that remains is whether National knew the promises they were making were unaffordable or whether they just don't know what's going on. Or to put it more bluntly. Are they stupid or were they lying? And if they were exaggerating their ability to afford their policies, did they think we'd be too stupid to realise? We all got sick and tired of the last Government gaslighting us and making promises they can't keep. I'm not going to be happy if it happens again. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When National formed it's new government there was a snappy little phrase that supporters were fond of using. Thank God the adults are back in charge. Suggesting that the left wing Labour Government were naive, inefficient fools who had driven the country into the ground like a 12 year old in a ram raid. National would lead a government run by grown ups who know what to do and how to do it and then actually DO it. So when Christopher Luxon presented his State of the nation address yesterday, the expectation was that the grown ups were about to tell us how all our problems will be fixed. What we got was a warning that times were going to get tough. What we got was a promise that our PM would not shy away from tough talk.  What we got was a lot of talk about beneficiaries. They were told the free ride was over. And then at the end an admission to reporters that the Government was yet to explain how it would address and finance the solutions to our woes. We also got a lot of talk about how bad the last Government was and the implication that they were the root of the parlous state we find ourselves in. That our water problems and our transport problems and our health problems and our labour problems and our housing problems and our energy problems and our weather problems and our farming problems and of course our economic problems all rest with one cohort of politicians who were in power from 2017 to 2023 It's that sort of blame game that got the Labour Government called childish. I would like to think that this government might have resisted that urge. To be the adults. I think what many of us want is governance that is future focussed. That considers a time 30 years in the future when our population has doubled or even tripled. That acknowledges that the mess we're in has taken many different governments and decades to create and will take many different governments to fix. The most powerful part of Christopher Luxon's speech was the line that New Zealand is fragile. We are. At a very fundamental level. And have been for a long time. And will be for a very longtime. So the sooner the adults turn up with a real plan that we can all get behind and that will work, the better.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

So two big video interviews over the weekend. Firstly, Tucker Carlson interviewed Vladimir Putin. Tucker said it was because no-one but him had bothered to ask which is BS. There's always people in the media claiming they're the only people holding power to account. My feel is that Putin knew Tucker was desperate for the scoop following his embarrassing downfall at Fox, so obliged him as a useful idiot. But that's not to denigrate the appearance. It was great to watch and listen to Putin. Know your enemy, they say, but you can't if no-one lets you hear them. The interview was reported 2 ways. Either Putin keen for World War 3 or Putin keen to negotiate for peace. He alluded to both things but what I took as more chilling was his half hour history lesson on the Russian/Ukraine situation. It went back centuries. It showed his depth of feeling. Māori would understand, having such long held historical grievance. It's a depth that means he's not pulling out or pulling back. In fact, his keenness for peace negotiation only requires USA to stop funding Ukraine. He's playing a long game. This conflict will only stop when Putin has gone which is no time soon. So the other interview was Jack Tame's conversation with Chloe Swarbrick. It was a shocker. Her refusal to understand how her Palestinian chants had been received was remarkable. This after mediation by the Human Rights Commission. This after Jewish members of her electorate had spoken with her. The left are famous opponents of hate speech, but to understand if speech is offensive you need to have the empathy to understand how the offence has been taken. Chloe seemed unable to comprehend the fear Jewish people have of that chant. She was unable to own any blame. The rest of the interview made me feel that the fresh and intelligent woman who entered parliament has been replaced by a hard line radical informed only by her own echo chamber. The Greens are in deep trouble. The Ghahraman resignation and forthcoming trial. James Shaw, the one calming influence, the man billed as a relationship builder, gone. The prospect of Davidson and Swarbrick ruling a radical socialist party. The damage is already evident in the polls this weekend with the Greens dropping 4.8 per cent to sit at 9 per cent. They're fast becoming unelectable. A socialist party that pays lip service to the environment and has forgotten about why they came into being in the first place.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

So there was a little bit of excitement yesterday as Jack Tame caught the National Party spreading misinformation on Q+A. Chris Bishop was talking about dropping smokefree legislation and made the claim that there would only be one outlet in all of Northland. Tame had done his research and said there was more likely going to be 35, which resulted in a classic caught out face from Chis Bishop, who stuck to his line and said he understood there was only going to be 1. Unfortunately, Jack never asked him where that understanding came from. It came from the Prime Minister, who made the same claim earlier in the week. It was not questioned then, but there was more than enough time for the media to research it and wait for someone to use it again publicly. Which Bishop did and walked into a "gotcha" trap. Now you've got opponents of the Government jumping up and down going on about the lying Government. Which is a wild over-exaggeration. The factoid was not crucial to their argument about black market trade and gang involvement in tobacco. Mr Luxon did the right thing and came out and said his team made a mistake. He has urged them to fact check more before they give his Government talking points. But it's still a thing- and a lesson not to be loose with facts. As the Prime Minister noted last week about the Pubic Interest Journalism Fund - he stopped short of calling it bribery, but said there was a perception of it. And perceptions are dangerous. But not necessarily true. The Prime Minister has already been caught out amplifying incorrect statistics through the campaign, so there is a perception that making up statistics is their modus operandi. As the numbers of outlets was clearly and easily available, a perception could be made that policy is being formulated without sufficient research. Chris Bishop used to be a tobacco industry lobbyist. Now caught using misleading statistics to support continued sales of tobacco there could be a perceptions of favour for former employers- which is a bad look. The Prime Minister could be perceived to be in thrall of the Dairy Owners Association who have argued against prohibition, because it would wreck dairy profitability. The Labour Government found out that perceptions stick. Considering this new Government is only a week old, they might want to learn that lesson fast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Congratulations to the new coalition Government, which was sworn in today by Governor General Dame Cindy Kiro. And as our new Prime Minister says- they're ready to get stuck in. But things are already getting better. Some say it's just because of the vibe. But don't discount plain good luck and timing. The so-called hermit kingdom is over. As we heard a week ago, nearly a quarter of a million people chose to emigrate to New Zealand in the past year. Today we learn tourism is up- and spending in the year to September hit $30 billion dollars. That's up $6.6 billion on the previous year - and pretty much back to pre-Covid levels. This while the international spend is still recovering. As Nicola Willis finally gets her warrant to fool with the economy, the economy appears to be turning a corner. In today's paper is a report that economists believe the Reserve Bank will not be raising interest rates anytime soon. It also reports that markets are predicting a rate cut as early as May and as many as 3 cuts through 2024. Which is great news for first-home buyers. With all this good news, there's still one thing that bugs me about this Government and that's the disconnect that you feel when a tax cut has to be funded by a tax rise. You'll remember that was the problem I had during the election where the tax cut for the squeezed middle was funded by a wealth tax on rich foreigners buying houses. For a Government averse to taxes, it seemed off brand. The new version came up after the Government's surprise axing of the smokefree programme, and I say surprise because no one can find mention of it in any pre-election manifesto but axed it has been on New Zealand First and ACT's insistence. Yesterday on Newshub Nation, Nicola Willis said extra revenue from more widespread cigarette sales would help fund tax cuts in lieu of the now-scrapped foreign buyers tax. This was a loose thing to say prompting accusations that long-term public health had been sacrificed for a short-term cash-grab. Which is a bad way to start a term. It's not rocket science. If you cut a tax you cut expenditure. You don't tax a fall guy to make it work. That's inequitable. Jack Tame asked Nicola Willis if she accepted more people would die because of cancelling the #Smokefree policy. Willis says- "I have not seen advice or analysis of that so I am not prepared to answer that question". FFS, this is what we can expect in the next three years. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

So, still no Government. It's not a biggie. Remember, they only started talking after the specials were counted so it's only been a fortnight. But then again, why did they only start talking after the specials were counted? But still not a biggie.  Meanwhile, all those getting stuck into Winston are not using their knowledge of history or politics.  He doesn't have to be in Government. He can say no easily and then bring the Government down whenever he wants. Yes, he's the tail and National's the dog but the dog needs Winston's tail far more than Winston needs the dog.  And when it comes to the difficulties of the negotiation, many seem to forget that Winston is an old-fashioned anti-globalist who hates immigration and the stress it puts on our infrastructure.  They seem not to remember that it was Winston's idea to slap a foreign buyers ban in our property market. And he was part of the team that did in 2017.  But letting foreign buyers back in is at the centre of National's tax plan.  So they're asking New Zealand First to do an absolute U-turn in terms of policy and principles. That's a big ask. It was always going to be. It was evident weeks before the election. And Luxon has already hinted that the foreign buyers ban may stay. That's a big U-turn too.  If there's something to criticise National for, it's dropping their 2 ticks blue campaign and letting Winston in. They have much in common but the differences are big stones in the path of coalition.  Meanwhile, while the cat's away Wayne Brown comes out to play. National's policy of dropping the Auckland fuel tax is leading the mayor to ways to raise money to build the roads. All of a sudden congestion tax is on the fast track.  It's proof that there is no such thing as a free tax cut. National wants to drop the tax to give Aucklanders more money in the back pocket, but as Wayne Brown points out that comes at the expense of roads. So what do you want more? Roads or tax cuts. Tax cuts or congestion taxes.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is my first ZB shift since the election brought in our new Government-to-be. And I must say it’s been the most fantastic fortnight, until we lost the Rugby World Cup final due to first half sloppiness and a trigger-happy TMO. But we had our chances. We can’t complain. You have to play to the rules. But really, it’s been 2 weeks of calm and confidence and a feeling of recovery and renewal after the election Business Confidence went from a number in the 20s to a number in the 50s overnight. Inflation came in in the 5s, despite most expectations being half a percent higher. Credit agencies said we’re in ok shape and didn’t make our borrowing more expensive. New Zealand came in 4th in a global tax competitiveness survey. The real estate section in the paper suddenly doubled in size. Real estate agents starting calling telling me to invest now, because the property market is about to explode. I even felt that crime has stopped. Just like that. Until I checked and saw there has been a ram raid. In Waihi Beach at 3.40am. 4 perps captured by police. Suddenly the cops are tough on crime. And suddenly I realised what had changed- nothing. What was different was no chorus of wet and whingy commentators and politicians telling anyone who was listening that this country was wrecked. You know the mantra: “The second to last economy in the world. Heading towards Venezuela. A crime rate to rival the most lawless areas of the world. The last bastion of communist dictatorship in the western world. Our children’s children’s children will be paying for this Government’s 6 years in charge” It is such a relief not to hear the doomsayers yelling with their megaphones into a dark and depressing echo chamber, every day. Trying to convince us that only they know the answers and New Zealanders wouldn’t know success if it slapped us in the face and said congratulations. I’ve always said that the country was not doing nearly as well as Labour thought it was, but it’s also not nearly as bad as National would like to have you believe. We’ve been talked out of our mojo. It reminds you to always be wary of politicians and their slogans. They don’t seek a legacy. Just your vote so they’ve got a job for 3 years. So enjoy the respite from criticism of this country, because it won’t last. As soon as the specials are counted we’ll back to the race to the bottom. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

So the political party that didn’t know what it stood for anymore and offered no real future lost the election to the party that offered tax cuts that are affordable only by increasing taxes on the wealthy and then claim that we’re back on track.  I’d argue that New Zealand is confused.  How else can you explain a nation that just 3 years ago so gratefully gave a red tide to Labour and now switches to a blue tsunami after a thousand days?  I think the theme of the election is more that it was time for a change than getting back on track.    It’s been an horrific four years of pandemics, cyclones, floods, fires. On top of that some ineptitude as Labour gave us slogans rather than policies. Exactly what they criticise National for.  It was decades worth of angst in just six years so we changed the one thing we could.  So National get their turn.  But the wholesale switcheroos we’ve seen in the past two elections are not a good thing for the country.  When Labour took an outright majority in 2020 we lost some of our best National MPs. The retirement of senior MPs like Joyce and English took the wise rudders.  Now the same thing has happened to Labour.  The upshot is a parliament full of newbies on both sides with no real depth of experience and knowledge in governance.  And governance is not like regular business. If you don’t believe me read Stephen Joyce’s book about his experiences as a newly minted Transport Minister.    Yes Minister is a documentary not a comedy.  Such dramatic flip flops smacks of a lack of core belief and that a lot of us will vote for whoever offers us the most moolah in the back pocket. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Well, here we are. Finally in the last week of an election campaign between the most incompetent cohort of politicians seen in a long time and wouldn't you know it, an international geo-political crisis just to accentuate that statement. Obviously, Nanaia Mahuta sympathises with Palestinians. She feels they've been colonised the same way Maori were. That doesn't make her an anti-Semite. BUT- you must condemn a surprise raid on civilians that killed thousands. She didn't, while the rest of the world did. So it was left to Chris Hipkins to do the right thing. Isn't that just like Labour. The few competent people trying to tidy up after the incompetent after yet another cock up. So why do I think this is the most incompetent cohort of politicians? They all blow in the breeze and will say anything to get the job. It started when Hipkins got the big job and started the bonfire of the policies, leaving me to ask whether he stood for anything at all. Since then, he's announced more and more spending despite advice to tai hoa and pay down debt It continued when National announced that to afford tax cuts for landlords and the middle class, they had to impose a wealth tax on rich foreigners. What a mixed up ideology. Christopher Luxon announced he could work with Winston Peters just two weeks ago, but now he's taking out full page ads telling voters not to vote for Winston. This is a mess entirely of the leaders' own making. Meanwhile, Winston tells the world in a debate that he doesn't support GST-free fruit and veg even though it's there on his party's website. 15 minutes later it isn't.   As Ben Thomas said: "Imagine being in Winston's team and having to concoct and then delete whole policies in real time as he is thundering on live tv." And now we've got National suggesting we may need a second election and Hipkins agreeing he'd rather have a second election than break his promise about not working with NZ First. So why not cancel the first election and go straight to the second? That's me being facetious. What a mess. How can I vote for any of them? But saying that all politicians are useless - don't vote is the sort of empty thing that Russell Brand would say. So my final word before this election is just vote for the party that matches how your gut feels. This is a vibe election. So just do it and we'll fix it all up on Monday. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I want to start the show with tributes to 3 people. The first is Brooke Graham. My neighbour and friend from the Coromandel who died recently at the age of just 42 from brain cancer.  A fast death inside 9 weeks but slow enough for her to make plans for her 10 year old daughter and her husband. Hers was a death of great grace and I am immensely sad. So to Carrick and MacKenzie, here's to your amazing wife and mother. Then there's Simon Barnett and his support of his wife, Jodi over the past 6 years in her fight against brain cancer as well. This was featured in the Weekend Herald on Saturday. Of course all of us here have on the afternoon show have known what Simon and his family have been going through. His strength, courage and love while still working this demanding job is amazing. It's good that you now know. And finally I want to acknowledge Richie Poulton, the director of the Dunedin study who passed away yesterday at the age of 61, again of cancer. Richie and I were at Auckland Grammar together. In the same cohort were people like Martin Crowe and Grant Fox and business people Ian Narev and Simon Herbert. But Richie is the best of all of us. At school he was smart and sporty.  I knew him as a nice bloke and a very good cricketer. I had no idea of the greatness within him. He was featured last night on the Sunday programme. It was a heart-breaking watch. Now, if you don't know, the Dunedin Study is a research programme that has followed the progress of 1,000 children born in Dunedin, New Zealand in 1972-73, from birth to midlife. Over 1300 papers have been published about how your environment and upbringing influences your situation. It's world famous, as is Richie. Last night, John Campbell asked him what the greatest finding was. Richie said poverty. He said you can't undo what happens in childhood. In 2016 the Dunedin Study published a paper called "Childhood disadvantage strongly predicts costly adult life-course outcomes". It found that nearly 80 percent of adult economic burden can be attributed to just 20 percent of the study members. The researchers determined that this “high cost” group accounted for 81 percent of criminal convictions, 66 percent of welfare benefits, 78 per cent of prescription fills and 40 percent of excess obese kilograms. Professor Poulton says that they also found that members of this group can be identified with high accuracy when as young as 3. Target these guys and you solve a lot of problems. But as he said last night no-one has talked about poverty in this election campaign. Labour made it their core goal over the past 6 years, and yet all they've done is throw money at all beneficiaries. And National doesn't utter the p word at all. It was- cut benefits and belief it can stem criminality with longer sentences. Yet back in 2017, Bill English quoted the 2016 study and talked about social investment. If we can identify the truly vulnerable, why don't we help them, and just them. National has abandoned all that work it did 6 years ago and I have no idea why. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What a funny old week it's been listening to the media and the Government howling for National's costings on their foreign house buyers tax and National's refusal to release them. Personally I don't give a flying fig on the costings. It seems perfectly obvious that National will not raise the money it says it will because that would take a record level of overseas sales. And National doesn't care. The overseas buyers tax is a sideshow. They are committed to tax cuts. That's their thing. That's non negotiable. They will happen. So if they can't subsidise the cuts with the new tax what could they do?  Either borrow more or cut Government spending. Cutting services will make their coalition partner happier, so what do you think will happen? The overseas buyers tax seems like a strange one for a so called right wing neo-liberal globalist party to propose. One that says it's committed to fighting inflation. In essence it's a wealth tax. "You can afford a $2 million dollar house. Great we'll have another $300,000 bucks in tax thanks, you rich prick." I guess it's OK to tax the wealthy if they're foreign. That $300,000 is another incentive for foreign buyers to find places without the tax because they don't like tax either, so that's another blow to National's optimistic projections. The opening of the market is another strange call in a time of inflation. It will mean more buyers and therefore higher prices which all contribute to inflation. If the market picks up steam because of the foreign buyers, then the wealthy with property will have more capital to borrow against to spend on their next overseas trip or car or new kitchen. Again spurring on inflation. Houses will get more expensive freezing out first home buyers. That's headline news and more inflation. Meanwhile, National is squirting $2 billion into consumers back pockets, will also spur inflation. In fact, when you look at National's suite of policies, they're all stimulatory, which is not the thing you do in a high inflation environment with historically high house prices. Margaret Thatcher would be having kittens. It's no wonder some true neo-liberals call National Labour-lite. At the end of the day, I don't know why National is so wedded to the tax cuts other than they're an easy sell to house owners. Why couldn't they just cut the wasteful spending and delay the tax bracket changes until we're better placed to wear them? Cut all the wasteful spending and then spend the savings on stuff we really need. Like doctors, hospitals, water pipes, roads and public transport. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What a wild and woolly weekend on the hustings. Christopher Luxon turns up on Q&A to talk about National's policies. First up, he promises to close Rotorua's emergency housing motels and kick any troublesome Kainga Ora social housing tenants out. Obviously, this is great news for law abiding Rotorua residents and New Zealanders suffering from the neighbours from hell. But he forgot that people ask follow up questions. Like, so where do you put these people? To which he has no answer. This is not good.  Don't take my word for it. Avowed right winger Ashley Church was on Early Edition said this went too far. The State is the landlord of last resort, blah blah blah blah. The social housing and the motels were a bad answer to a bad problem.  Get rid of them and all you have is a badder problem getting worse. And if you think feral's behaviours are bad in a state house you wait until they live in a car. Luxon offered nothing. Then he said their housing policies would provide downward pressure on rents. Of course, we all know he's a landlord so Tame asked the obvious question, "So will you reduce rents for your tenants in this new environment?". What followed was a stammering exercise.  Claire Trevett describes it as a rookie MP in an interview with no answers. Here's the thing, he's auditioning for the top job in the nation. If he can't stand up to Jack Tame, what's going to happen when Xi Jinping starts asking some hard house tax questions? What's going to happen in the leader's debates? The reason this is a concern is because Labour really does seem like the Walking Dead. Fresh from their spectacular second term implosion and the loss of cabinet Minister after Cabinet Minister. After 6 years of failed promise after failed promise. With Hipkins seeming to be low on energy and new ideas and only bursting into life slagging the opposition. With all the other Labour MPs existing in radio silence either because  they've been muted or they've got nothing to say. After all that, National should be romping home. It should be like shooting fish in a barrel. Instead, Christopher Luxon just shoots himself in the foot. Time and time again. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

So we're off and running with an election 40-odd days away and both parties promising the world. Labour is out of the gate with their policy of free dental care for the under 30s. A policy they, themselves, said was unachievable just a month ago. A policy that needs more dentists, but we only train 60 a year and it takes 6 years for them to be in the workforce. Everything is against this policy and Labour knows it, which is why they won't even try to do it until 2026, and only if they get back in. It's almost as if Labour doesn't get what's driven the electorate off them over the past 3 years. Pie in the sky word salads that are barely possible if not impossible. They were given an incredible mandate just to repair what pandemic lockdowns did to us but instead, they started chasing unicorns. My pet peeve is the Light Rail that might bother some shop owners, so they thought- let's just stick it underground at eye-watering cost. And you want us to take you seriously. To win, National just needs to seem capable and the first reactions to their near $15 billion in tax cuts seemed favourable. But that is waning. On Friday, Matthew Hooten rubbished it and called it cynical. On Saturday, tax experts said it breaks tax treaties overseas. On Sunday, even Heather du Plessis-Allan was saying the foreign house buyers sales tax figures were ludicrous, and they are. Nearly $900 million of tax cuts are dependent on foreign buyers suddenly buying half of all the $2 million dollar plus houses available. It's starting to have that "made up a month ago and costed on the back of an envelope" feel. Meanwhile, a question they've never answered is whether spraying nearly $15 billion into the money market will be inflationary. So tax cuts are inflationary because they increase the money supply the same way money printing and borrowing does. They need to be timed very carefully. The only way they would not be inflationary is if you reduce Government spending by the amount you're giving back in tax cuts so that spending is net zero. But they're not doing that, which is why they've invented the foreign buyer tax and casino tax. And the other problem is productivity. We're running at nearly full capacity. Look at our participation rates and particularly the food price index. There's no room for job growth to drive prices lower. Meanwhile, giving the people more money means you give the people the ability to afford higher tomato prices and inflation carries on and becomes embedded even if you do slash Government spending. National is running on the promise of being prudent financial managers. A prudent manager would bring in the bracket changes when inflation has abated. But they're not. To that end, National shows themselves to be just as hostage to ideology as Labour is. Just promise tax cuts. it always works. A letter to the editor on Sunday called National and Labour Tweedle-Dee and Tweedle-Dumber, and said give your vote to someone else. However, the other parties seem like Tweedle-Dumbest. So as I've been saying all year. New Zealand deserves some smart leadership but no one is offering it. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

So last week we lost Sir Michael Parkinson, the great interviewer. His son interviewed in the weekend saying his father was proud of his working-class roots but hated politics. While he hated politics but loved policy. He thought most of politics was just an act, but policies are actions.  I thought about that watching the corny play that was acted out over the weekend. Hipkins ruled out Peters even though Peters had ruled out Hipkins ages ago. Then Dunne says great politics and that it snookers Luxon, but Luxon comes back and says he's not thinking about Peters at all.  Honestly. So much hot air over almost nothing.  Then Chippy calls National, ACT, New Zealand First a coalition of cuts, chaos, and confusion.  Virtually the same thing that Luxon has been saying all year. Could you be any more insipid?  I said last week that I fail to comprehend what Chris Hipkins actually stands for anymore, and there's more proof.  Then we have Paul Henry in the paper on Sunday. John Key's bestie and former National party candidate.  He’s seen no evidence that if a new government is elected in October, things will “dramatically” change.  He says National are paralysed with the fear of dramatically committing themselves to anything and that Luxon is too obsessed with not screwing things up, and not screwing things up is not success.  And he's right. National's policy planks seem to be just removing anything Labour has done and throwing tax cuts at the cost of living which is like using gasoline to put out a fire.  There's a lack of a vision thing in our major parties, and when they do have a vision then they fail to realise it.  The National Party's policy on cancer drug funding last week was the closest to vision we've had from them in years, but they didn't sell it very well.  It's a return to Bill English's social investment philosophy. Using the Community Card to target help those who really need it rather than splashing cash around universally on prescriptions for everyone including the rich.  At the moment all the politicians in all the parties seem either misguided, .  It's time the politicians figure out what they stand for. Stop complaining that New Zealand's lost its mojo and ambition and get some yourself. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

So the World Cup has finished it' stellar month downunder with a victory for Spain. Who, I hope, took the time to thank Palmerston North for the city's contribution towards their success.  After all one would presume that if the team was so bored with the Palmie nightlife then they'd be getting good sleep and spending plenty of time practicing and improving their game during the day. And that is the magic of this World Cup. That New Zealand was so significantly and visibly involved. We hosted half the draw in a tournament whose ratings far exceeded anything we've hosted before. Bigger than a Rugby World Cup, bigger than the America's Cup, bigger than a Commonwealth Games. 2 billion pairs of eyes watched us. Despite what negative columnists wrote about our domestic problems being visible to the world I can assure you that was not the case. We looked great. And if a fraction of those people decide to visit us in the future that's a win. The monetary benefit is still to be calculated but it's fair to say the whole thing was an unqualified success and we owe it to public servants from the council and the government who oiled the wheels in the first place. Some of the workers at Tataki Auckland Unlimited had been working for 15 years to convince FIFA that we were up to the task. They had to battle against super powers like England and Germany who were against us co-hosting. But they got there. But those are the people who are currently under threat. Wayne Brown wants his civil service to return to rubbish bins and water and no more. 200 jobs are going at Tataki Auckland Unlimited. It's the sort of short sighted populist policy that is alarming Auckland businesses who understand that nothing happens without incentives, which they told the Mayor back in May. It's why Coldplay is playing Perth and Taylor Swift is playing Sydney and Melbourne but neither are playing New Zealand. The cities and the country cut them a deal. ACT's David Seymour is waging the same fatwa against public servants which he continued this morning. Now while I have no problem with KPI targets I do have a problem with his belief that this country can survive his drastic cuts to the public workforce.   A few months ago Mr Seymour said he could cut $1 billion out of the public sector in a week. He went further reckoning he could cut $38 billion out of the annual bill. He particularly dislikes event incentives and sweetheart deals for things like films and Research and Development, calling them corporate welfare. He wants to eviscerate Stephen Joyce's innovation, MBIE.   He believes business initiatives should stand on their own feet. But he ignores the fact that without public money some of things wouldn't even be able to crawl. The sort of cost cutting Mr Seymour is suggesting would also provoke an enormous austerity and impact the whole economy. Public servants buy goods and services from the private sector. But they don't if they're unemployed. But it's a popular policy. He's exploiting an embedded dislike of public servants that has been stoked along by small government capitalists for decades now. The belief that all public servants are bad wastes of money and stuff would happen without them. Stuff would happen but not at the scale we've enjoyed lately. After all what business is prepared to throw 15 years of effort and incentive at an event that might not even happen?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.