The Weekly Insight

In the last edition of the Weekly Insight, we suggested that the market might be venturing into an “overbought” position and suggested it may need a bit of a breather before it made another step forward. We got just that last week as the market focus shifted from the election back to the topics that have been moving markets for the last few years: the Fed, interest rates, and inflation.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-shifting-expectations/

Well, the election is behind us. Some Americans are very happy. Some are very unhappy. But, no matter what, the economy keeps moving and we need to keep moving with it. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-post-election-priorities/

Tomorrow is a big day. And for many of us, it seems like the finish line for a long and grueling process. Sadly, when it comes to politics, there is no finish line. There will be more contentious issues to tackle after the election is done. And the same goes for the market and the economy. The FOMC is going to remind us of that later this week when they meet on Thursday to make their next interest rate decision. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-finish-line/

We’re almost there. Just eight days to go until we can put this election behind us.  But we also have to remember that elections matter in portfolios. This week, we look at one of the big areas where we might see immediate impacts to the market following the election: tax policy. The shape of this election will impact what happens to the soon-to-expire Tax Cut and Jobs Act from 2017. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-positioning-for-the-post-election-world/

You’d be forgiven for thinking the only thing happening in the world today is the Presidential election coming up in just over two weeks. It seems that’s all any pundit is talking about. But the truth is, there is a lot happening impacting financial markets that has absolutely nothing to do with who gets sworn into office on January 20, 2025.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-theres-more-than-an-election/

As they say, the only thing constant in the world is change. And we’re seeing an interesting change in how the market perceives economic news. You’ll recall many conversations in the pages of the Weekly Insight over the last few years about how “good news” was bad for the market as we battled inflation. That may not be true anymore.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-is-good-news-good-news-again/

The world sure seems full of worry today, doesn’t it? It doesn’t help that we have two Presidential candidates fear mongering for votes. But there are things we should worry about in portfolios and things that really don’t move the needle. One that deserves our attention right now is the situation in the Middle East and the potential for a disruption in oil supplies.  Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-28-miles-of-angst/

It finally happened! The Fed cut rates last week. And not just a 0.25% cut. We got the full 0.50%, which was larger than many anticipated. That brings up many questions, but the biggest is the simplest: what if they’re wrong? What if the Fed has misjudged this moment? What would it mean for the economy and for portfolios?Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-what-if-theyre-wrong/

As we head into Fed Week (a very important Fed Week!), we thought it might be a good time to step back and look at the economy as a whole. We’re in an interesting moment. Economic growth continues to excel at a time when citizens of our country overwhelmingly say the economy is not succeeding. Where is the disconnect? And what does it mean for the future? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-k-shaped-recovery/

Did you feel that? That was the market’s worst week in 2024. Down 4.22% in a week. Well worse than we saw even at the beginning of August.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-worst-week-ever/

Would it surprise you if we told you the party in power in Washington will use its power to juice the economy prior to an election? It shouldn’t. Both parties have been doing it for years. But the current Administration is taking a novel approach to this task that some are calling “Stealth QE”. It’s impacting the markets today (in a good way), but it may have longer term consequences which would impact your portfolio.  Read more here:  https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-stealth-qe/

The market’s recovery last week continued and – with the exception of Big Tech – has left us back where we started before the downturn started in July. That move was further spurred by Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole on Friday where he basically announced rate cuts are coming in September. That’s all good news, but how does this change our outlook on risk in portfolios? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-one-down-two-to-go/

We’ve all done it before: get so sucked into an idea that we miss the big picture. It happens in the markets time and again. Author and expert in behavioral investing Daniel Crosby has a term for it: Overprecision. He defines it as “excessive certainty in the precision of private beliefs”. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-overprecision/

At the beginning of last week it seemed panic was starting to settle into the market. The momentum created by the “bad” jobs report on August 2nd fed into a historically bad day in the Nikkei which lead into Monday’s open. The rout was on…until it wasn’t.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-panic-that-wasnt/

What a morning it’s been for the markets! Volatility has spiked and the Dow plummeted nearly 1,000 points at the open this morning.  Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-why-all-the-volatility/

Fed week is upon us yet again, but there is little question what Chairman Powell and company are going to do this week: not much. Barring any surprises, the market is set for the first rate cut to begin in September. But what, exactly, does that mean for the markets and your portfolio? How have rate cuts impacted the economy in the past? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-cuts-are-coming-now-what/

Well, where do we start this week? There’s earnings season. Or the rotation from mega cap tech stocks to the rest of the market. Or the sitting President who just dropped out of the race 107 days before Election Day. Or how about the greatest IT failure in the history of…well…computers.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-crowd-struck/

Where do we even start? Love Trump or hate him, there’s no denying we just experienced a dark weekend in American history.  There is no place in a democracy for these kinds of disgusting acts. But as crass as it may seem, you come to us to understand how events will impact your portfolio.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-panic-or-certainty/

It isn’t often we get politicians from the left and the right uniting on an important issue. But it’s happening right now. Leading Democrats and Republicans – including both Presidential candidates – are committing to no changes in the Social Security and Medicare system. The only problem is…the math.  Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-math-doesnt-lie/

Maybe it’s appropriate that, just a week before Independence Day, American politics took yet another messy turn.  We could debate for days the best outcome of our upcoming Presidential election – but what our readers/listeners are more concerned about is what the latest drama may mean for the market.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-messy-presidential-election/