Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Step into the fascinating realm of finance and investing with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and an amazing line-up of co-hosts as your guide. Each week, we engage in captivating conversations with renowned investors, esteemed economists, skilled traders, and visionary thought leaders. Discover the wisdom derived from their journeys, embracing their triumphs and learning from their setbacks. At TTU, we strive to ignite your independent thinking, encouraging you to chart your own path to financial success. Tune in to stay informed and inspired on the ever-evolving landscape of finance and investing. Stay up-to-date with our latest episodes and blogposts at https://toptradersunplugged.com read less
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Episodes

SI287: No Pain, No Gain ft. Katy Kaminski
3d ago
SI287: No Pain, No Gain ft. Katy Kaminski
Today, we welcome Katy Kaminiski back to the show as we reflect on her entry into the trend following space and what she has learned on her systematic journey. We also discuss different ways of allocating risk in portfolio construction and why Katy “loves skewness”, why preparing for pain can actually lead to better decisions as an investor and how changes in the global macro environment takes time to manifest in trends. Lastly, we discuss what we are both excited and nervous for in 2024.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:50 - What has been on our radar recently?03:03 - When are trends coming to an end?06:24 - Industry performance update07:31 - How did Katy end up in the trend following industry?11:19 - What attracted her to the industry?12:40 - What Katy has learned from being an allocator15:44 - Risk variations in portfolio construction20:21 - What drives the biggest dispersion?21:54 - Understanding risk in your portfolio24:05 - Constant vol targeting - just a phase?25:25 - The importance of skewness31:06 - Mind the timeframe34:57 - Preparing for pain ahead of time (MAN Paper)38:15 - No pain, no gain...43:28 - Economic trend (AQR Paper)47:33 - Dealing with a world in disruption50:48 - Excitement and worries about...
GM58: Electric Dreams and Commodity Market Realities ft. Tor Svelland
6d ago
GM58: Electric Dreams and Commodity Market Realities ft. Tor Svelland
Tor Svelland, of Svelland Capital, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss the global macro forces driving global commodity markets. They discuss how the commodity markets have evolved over the years, as banks have scaled back trading and quant firms and CTAs have become more prominent players. Tor outlines the key reasons he believes commodity markets are in the midst of a super cycle, identifies where he sees the strongest opportunities and discusses what the commodity markets are currently suggesting about the state of global demand. They discuss how the global energy transition, de-globalization and nearshoring, rising geopolitical risk and increased defence spending will impact markets. They also delve into the periodic mis-pricings Tor sees between equities, particularly technology stocks, and commodities given their rising electricity demand. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Tor on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:26 - Introduction to Tor Svelland06:18 - How have commodity markets evolved?09:19 - More opportunities in commodity markets?11:32 - Why Tor started his own firm14:15 - Tor's outlook for the commodity markets17:10 - What has driven the flat trend in the major industrial markets?20:09 - Are we in a super cycle?22:55 - Translating trends into trades24:47 - Which markets will benefit from the energy...
SI286: Profiting from Different Investment Regimes? ft. Rob Carver
Mar 9 2024
SI286: Profiting from Different Investment Regimes? ft. Rob Carver
This week, Rob Carver joins us to uncover his process of choosing which instruments to trade and how to manage the volatility of these. We also discuss how time frames affect position sizing and the ability to get reasonable exposure to a market as well as how you manage your expenses as a full time systematic trader. We round off our conversation with a deep dive into the latest paper from Man Institute to find out if different regimes exist in reality or just in hindsight. The paper uncovers if investors can reliably profit from correctly identifying them and if so, how? And how various types of investing have performed through different regimes, including Trend Following.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:26 - What has been on our radar recently?06:31 - Industry performance update13:41 - Q1.0, Matthijs: Assuming that the trading costs are not a problem for some low-vol instrument, then how can we decide whether/how to still safely include the instrument in our portfolio?23:50 - Q1.1 Matthijs: How do we distinguish between benign naturally low-vol instruments and disasters waiting to happen due to artificially dampened volatility?26:18 - Q2, Ben: If I can trade markets like sugar or OJ on 20-day breakouts, is it reasonable to do so or is that quote-unquote too fast?32:08 - Q3, Emil: As a full time systematic trader, how do you manage your expenses, with up and down months/years?43:09 - Discussing latest Man Institute paper on regime based investing50:37 - A win for trend...
IL24: Our Chance to Build a Sustainable Future ft. Hannah Ritchie
Mar 6 2024
IL24: Our Chance to Build a Sustainable Future ft. Hannah Ritchie
In this episode we talk to Dr. Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor and Lead Researcher at Our World In Data and author of the Not The End of the World, How We Can Be The First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet. Dr. Ritchie talks about her personal journey from a climate pessimist ready to switch careers to a data scientist explaining why the world can transition to a sustainable future. We discuss how China and India are becoming greener at a much faster rate than western countries did as they developed. We also talk about why electrification is so important and the role for nuclear and gas power in that process. She explains why food systems play an important role in emissions and the surprising list of individual actions that help - and also hurt - the environment. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Hannah on LinkedIn and Read her Book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:22 - Introduction to Hannah Ritchie09:17 - How does Hannah describe herself and her work?10:56 - How has global CO2 emission developed?16:01 - How is China managing their intermittency problem?19:10 - How does nuclear play a role for our future?21:53
SI285: Elections Ahead & What this Mean for Investors ft. Cem Karsan
Mar 2 2024
SI285: Elections Ahead & What this Mean for Investors ft. Cem Karsan
Today, Cem Karsan joins us to discuss a wide range or really important topics. Inspired by questions from listeners we discuss how the balance in asset performance is shifting and how 0DTE impact markets. We also discuss how 2024 will contain more inportant elections than any other year in recent history and how we foresee the U.S. election will play out, the state of flows and the rise of a new meme stock. Lastly, we discuss whether the U.S. is beginning to loose the exorbitant privilege due to their huge debt and the potential power shifts that can happen in the nearby future.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:06 - What has been on our radar recently?05:13 - Industry performance update08:01 - Q1, Rick: Is positioning in tech under or over weighted?11:23 - How 0DTE impact markets18:08 - Is the VIX broken?24:03 - 2024 - The year of elections30:19 - Republicans or democrats - does it even matter to the markets?32:09 - The return of the Kennedy's39:15 - What is going on with flows?47:55 - The rise of meme stocks52:41 - How the U.S. debt will impact the dollar59:59 - A wild ride for Japan01:05:54 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2023 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my...
ALO21: How to Run a Multi-Billion Dollar Sovereign Fund ft. Peter Madsen
Feb 28 2024
ALO21: How to Run a Multi-Billion Dollar Sovereign Fund ft. Peter Madsen
Peter Madsen, CIO of SITFO, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss how the $3.5bn State of Utah Sovereign Fund runs its investment portfolio. They discuss the rationale for Peter’s investment philosophy of having a diversified portfolio of growth assets, real assets, income generating assets and defensive strategies in contrast to the equity-centred portfolios of many endowments. Peter discusses the key risk considerations in managing the portfolio and how the team think about formulating return expectations. They discuss the opportunities in private markets and the potential risks in private credit in particular. A key element of the portfolio is the allocation to Systematic Convexity which includes Trend Following and Global Macro strategies and Peter discusses his journey investing in CTAs and some of the challenges and pitfalls of selecting managers. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Peter on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:56 - Introduction to Peter Madsen and his firm06:54 - How is their portfolio charactarized?09:16 - Their investment philosophy14:33 - A skepticism about equities?17:04 - How do the macro environment influence them?21:23 - What is reasonable return expectation for equities?25:19 - Splitting between public and private markets28:20 - Where lies the most risk?30:25 - Opportunities in the private credit space33:21 -...
SI284: Choosing Your Trend Following Battles ft. Nick Baltas
Feb 24 2024
SI284: Choosing Your Trend Following Battles ft. Nick Baltas
Goldman Sachs's Nick Baltas joins us today, to help us uncover if it is meaningful to use factor regression to evaluate managed futures. We also weigh in on couple of articles, relating to the outlook for trend following and the state of the industry, before turning our attention to some hard core research into how to construct the optimal trend following portfolio and why it is important to be conscious of which battles you pick. Lastly, we discuss the challenge of timing an investment into trend following, the pros and cons of trading alternative markets and more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:23 - What has caught our interest recently?03:04 - The Nikkei index finally comes out it its 35 year drawdown05:35 - Industry performance update07:37 - Q1, Oliver: Does it makes sense to use factor regression to evaluate managed futures?14:24 - The state of the industry18:17 - Is trend following flopping?27:34 - Building optimal trend following portfolios36:15 - Pick your battles49:10 - Is there a way to time trend following?53:34 - Is it actually an advantage to trade alternative markets?01:04:44 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2023 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things...
OI05: Is Trading Fewer Markets Actually Better? ft. Richard Liddle & Gareth Abbot
Feb 21 2024
OI05: Is Trading Fewer Markets Actually Better? ft. Richard Liddle & Gareth Abbot
In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Gareth Abbot and Richard Liddle from Bowmoor Capital, a trend following firm based in the UK. Gareth and Richard explain why they decided to go against many trend followers and limit their investment universe to 21 markets – a “compact” portfolio – and why additional markets would likely dilute the return stream they aim to generate. We also speak about their portfolio construction process which includes the combination of 16 systems and results in what they call “smart pyramiding” in and out of positions. Finally, we touch on dynamic position sizing.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Richard on LinkedInFollow Bowmoor Capital.Episode TimeStamps: 02:09 - Introduction to Richard Liddle and Gareth Abbot05:19 - How did they get into investing?09:43 - Why trend following?13:55 - Solving the market puzzle15:36 - How they designed their strategy?18:46 - The reason for their market selection24:18 - Why exactly 21 markets?31:13 - How did they design their system?39:47 - Why they don't trade hundreds of markets42:08 - What timeframes and models do they work with?50:13 - Controlling the...
SI283: How to Beat the Benchmarks ft. Richard Brennan
Feb 18 2024
SI283: How to Beat the Benchmarks ft. Richard Brennan
Come along for this fascinating conversation with Richard Brennan, where we dive into how to the beat the benchmarks as a manager. We discuss the different factors that goes into achieving great performance and why trend following has greater potential return than other alternative investment strategies, why bigger and newer is not always better in terms of complex adaptive systems, why it is important to be aware of system diversification and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:07 - What has caught our attention recently?02:33 - What will 2024 bring for trend following?07:11 - Inflation? Look to the Tooth Fairy08:33 - Industry performance update11:34 - Q1, Mark: Should trend followers size long and short positions the same?17:20 - Outperforming the benchmarks36:39 - The "secrets" of achieving great performance44:42 - Is bigger always better?52:43 - The importance of system diversification01:03:45 - Working out the optimal parameters01:08:14 - Crazy times in the cocoa market01:09:41 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2023 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in
GM57: Navigating the Next Decade ft. Kiril Sokoloff
Feb 14 2024
GM57: Navigating the Next Decade ft. Kiril Sokoloff
Legendary strategist Kiril Sokoloff, founder and Chairman of 13D Research, joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a whirlwind tour of where Kiril sees the risks and opportunities in global markets over the next decade. Kiril outlines the reasons behind his belief that the secular bull market in bonds is over and a secular bear market is now underway. They discuss implications of climate change decarbonisation, the ageing global economy, rising debt levels and the growing risk of a significant derailment of the global economy from protectionism. Kiril explains why he is bullish oil, copper, uranium and gold and why gold mining stocks are the cheapest asset on the planet and his top contrarian call. They discuss China’s current economic challenges and why Kiril remains upbeat on the longer-term outlook for China and Chinese stocks but why there may be even greater opportunities in India. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Kiril's work on 13D.Episode TimeStamps: 02:31 - Introduction to Kiril Sokoloff05:21 - Are we heading back to "normal"?11:17 - Will China become an inflationary force?14:30 - Is China still investable?17:05 - A Chinese confidence crisis18:45 - The outlook for inflation from a historical perspective23:13 - What is going on in the oil market?25:45 - What drives the shift towards solar energy in China?27:57 - The move towards nuclear energy29:55 -...
SI282: Rethinking Bonds: the Changing Role of Fixed Income ft. Andrew Beer
Feb 11 2024
SI282: Rethinking Bonds: the Changing Role of Fixed Income ft. Andrew Beer
Andrew Beer returns to the show for a fascinating conversation, where we question the role of Bonds in today's environment, and review both current and historic performance, and what it takes to change investors minds about replacing bonds with managed futures. We also discuss why long-term timeframes might be better for most investors within Trend Following and why stock-picking are becoming less relevant due to shifts in the S&P500 structure. Lastly, we touch on the ETF space and how the investment industry is slow at adapting to change, whether democracy is on its last legs and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:53 - A dark time04:24 - Industry performance update10:57 - Should we replace bonds with managed futures? (or vice versa)21:59 - What does it take to change investors minds?33:26 - No one can erase 2022, and that is important35:01 - A misleading narrative in the managed futures space38:30 - Long or short term - who performed the best?43:39 - Are stocks becoming less relevant?53:22 - An update on the ETF space56:25 - An existential crisis within equity hedge funds58:55 - Capitalism and the political discourse01:03:58 - Is democracy on its last legs?01:06:32 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2023 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...
GM56: Structural Shifts - A Threat to the Economy? ft. Frances Donald
Feb 7 2024
GM56: Structural Shifts - A Threat to the Economy? ft. Frances Donald
Frances Donald, Chief Economist and Strategist at Manulife Investment Management, joins Alan Dunne to discuss how the drivers of the economy and inflation are undergoing a structural shift and what this means for the economic outlook. We hear why Frances expects a recession in the US economy in 2024 and why the risks to her forecasts are on the downside. Frances outlines where she currently sees tactical opportunities in fixed income markets and why she expects equity markets to face headwinds as investors start to see “bad news as bad news” this year. The conversations delves into the big shift underway in the global economy, becoming more supply driven than demand driven and the implications this will have for inflation, monetary policy and fiscal policy over the medium term. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Frances on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:39 - Introduction to Frances Donald06:39 - What caused a pivot from the central banks?13:10 - Why were they wrong about their forecast?20:43 - Where are the weak spots?23:58 - Does recession calls even matter?27:34 - Frances' outlook for the economy39:21 - Are we heading into a structural shift?51:04 - Will things change in the next administration?53:33 - Are fixed income markets becoming more investable?59:35 - Advice for the other investors01:01:15 -...
SI281: More Markets = Better Performance? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Feb 3 2024
SI281: More Markets = Better Performance? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Today, Mark Rzepczynski joins us to reflect on how the first month of 2024 has been treating investor. We also discuss how misinformation posses a major threat to the global economy and how some managers are moving away from price as the only data input, how speed plays a role within trend following and why it is important to be aware of a manager’s "personality". Lastly, we dive deep into principal component analysis and the factors that drive trend following performance, how trading more markets may produce better returns according to new research and how diversification can come in many different forms.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:09 - What has caught our interest recently?02:27 - Industry performance update06:16 - Misinformation - a global threat12:14 - The drivers of price17:17 - Finding the optimal lookback period22:48 - Managers have different personalities29:53 - What makes up good trend following performance?32:24 - Diving into principal component analysis39:32 - More markets = better returns?44:54 - Diversification can come in many forms49:37 - How will trend following perform in different cycles?54:34 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2023 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about...
IL23: Learning to Fail Well ft. Amy Edmondson
Jan 31 2024
IL23: Learning to Fail Well ft. Amy Edmondson
In this episode we talk to Amy Edmondson, Harvard Business School professor and author of the Financial Times 2023 Business Book of the Year: The Right Kind of Wrong, The Science of Failing Well. Edmondson argues we should cultivate an appetite for “intelligent failure” - events that may be painful but ultimately lead to innovation, personal growth and better relationships. This is difficult because we are hardwired to push failure “underground”, a bias that is often made worse by work cultures that punish failure in the name of accountability. Edmondson explains how we can overcome these obstacles using stories from her own life and findings from her career as a scientific researcher. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Amy on LinkedIn and Read her Book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:22 - Introduction to Amy Edmondson10:27 - The importance of psychological safety15:04 - The different types of failure18:25 - Why do we fear to fail?22:54 - The idea of reframing25:04 - Practicing reframing27:06 - Has the way students work changed?30:25 - The dark side of the performance mindset32:40 -...
SI280: Equities for the Long Run? ft. Alan Dunne
Jan 27 2024
SI280: Equities for the Long Run? ft. Alan Dunne
As we are getting closer to the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss how markets might be affected, should Trump win the election. We also answer a question from our community, in terms of how much you should consider allocating to Trend Following as part of a multi-asset portfolio and we discuss the historical differences between equity and managed futures drawdowns. Lastly, we dive into a couple of recent papers to find out whether stocks are the most optimal allocation for the long run, whether the next decade will be like the last one and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:04 - What has been on our radar recently?03:26 - The importance of liquidity06:39 - The global macro picture11:52 - How will markets be affected by the presidential election?16:10 - What about China?21:24 - Industry performance update24:04 - Q1, Anonymous: What would be a fair allocation to trend following in a diversified multi-asset portfolio?32:33 - Q1.1 Anonymous: Any resources or insights to help the selection process for UCITS funds37:29 - Equity versus managed futures drawdowns43:10 - Stocks for the long run - really?55:38 - Has it gone too far with the Magnificent 7's?57:28 - The outlook of the next decade01:02:32 - Thanks for listeningResources discussed in this Episode:
ALO20: How Will Mega Trends Shape the Economy? ft. Casey Clark
Jan 24 2024
ALO20: How Will Mega Trends Shape the Economy? ft. Casey Clark
Casey Clark, President and CIO of Rockefeller Asset Management, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss the mega trends shaping the investment landscape and asset management industry over the coming years. We hear Casey’s insights on what are the key traits of great investors, how Rockefeller evaluates aspiring portfolio managers and what makes a great investment process. The conversation delves into the changing macro landscape, the implications of a positive correlation between bonds and equities for allocators and why we may see a resurgence of value investing and greater adoption of alternatives in portfolios. We also delve into ESG, the diverging trends in ESG investing in the US and Europe and how the framework of ESG leaders and improvers is key to how Rockefeller thinks about incorporating ESG into their alpha generation process. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Casey on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:45 - Introduction to Casey Clark07:02 - How do Rockefeller Capital Management manage their assets?10:01 - What is their investment philosophy?12:04 - Who are their clients?12:45 - How do they build their strategies?14:24 - How are they setting themselves up for mega trends like AI16:55 - What is driving the ETF growth?17:32 - Their approach to evaluating managers21:49 - Having the right benchmark24:34...
SI279: Prepare for a Bumpy Landing ft. Katy Kaminski
Jan 20 2024
SI279: Prepare for a Bumpy Landing ft. Katy Kaminski
In this episode, I'm joined by Katy Kaminski, who delves into the nuances distinguishing momentum trading from trend following, emphasizing the importance of comprehending the underlying philosophy of a trading strategy. Katy sheds light on the concept of 'pure trend' and offers insights on identifying convergent patterns within a trend following approach. We also reflect on the peculiarities of 2023, with Katy sharing her perspective on why we might be entering 'the final phase' and her expectations of a "bumpy" rather than smooth or abrupt economic transition, among other insightful topics.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:52 - A funny story from Katy02:34 - An important shout-out03:42 - A rare event in Denmark06:55 - Industry performance update08:10 - Thoughts on 2024 so far09:42 - The difference between momentum and trend following13:53 - Convergent vs. divergent strategies24:08 - What does "pure trend" mean to Katy?28:03 - What makes you a pure trend follower?32:53 - Looking back at 202337:48 - An unusual year43:22 - Discussing Katy's paper on fixed income47:43 - How were trend models positioned in the 1960's?51:11 - What does your position mean?54:40 - Next big bull market in commodities?56:10 - Thanks for listeningResources discussed in this Episode:
GM55: What Investors Need to Know about 2024 ft. Dave Dredge & Cem Karsan
Jan 17 2024
GM55: What Investors Need to Know about 2024 ft. Dave Dredge & Cem Karsan
Get ready for a powerhouse discussion as two titans of risk management, Dave Dredge and Cem Karsan, come together once again. These experts are renowned for their insights, and today, they're diving deep into what's unfolded since their last conversation and where the smart money should be in 2024. From avoiding pitfalls to uncovering lucrative opportunities, Dave and Cem have you covered. Tune in for a dynamic start to the year!-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Dave on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:37 - Looking back on our last conversation07:55 - Are markets looking too good to be true?14:04 - The importance of long volatility and owning convexity24:41 - Why is volatility compression normalizing?31:35 - A system under pressure38:48 - How is now different to the 1970's?42:09 - Can deglobalization be a good thing?53:00 - Where is the debt problem going?01:04:25 - Volatility and liquidity are opposite sides of the same coin01:09:08 - How Dredge is carrying out volatility sellingCopyright © 2023 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt...
SI278: Trend Following Risk Premium...is it there & could it go away? ft. Rob Carver
Jan 13 2024
SI278: Trend Following Risk Premium...is it there & could it go away? ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver returns to the show to discuss whether there is a risk that the Trend Following risk premium could one day disappear and how he manages exogenous and endogenous risks in a trend following system, how he thinks of trading single stocks instead of stock indices in a diversified multi-asset trend program and what the minimum lookback period would be, in order to be considered “long term”. We also discuss the irony of the newly approved crypto ETF, how the nature of bitcoin has changed and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:23 - What has caught our attention recently?10:14 - Industry performance update11:26 - Q1, Norbert: What is the long-term expectation for the trend-following risk premium as measured by the SG Trend Index after costs and its stability or sustainability?19:46 - Q2, Bruno: What is Rob's method for balancing endogenous and exogenous risk management and controls in a system29:36 - Q3, Oliver: What is Rob's take on trading single stocks instead of stock indecies in a diversified multi-asset trend program37:57 - Q4, Critter: What would the minimum lookback period be to be considered "long term"?41:59 - Q5, Chris: Can you share a couple names of software companies that do robust backtesting of trade strategies45:57 - Cypto ETFs have been approved!52:42 - Allocating to bitcoin01:04:31 - Looking into 202401:08:38 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2023 – CMC AG – All Rights...
OI04: Do Alternative Markets Trend Better? ft. Scott Kerson
Jan 10 2024
OI04: Do Alternative Markets Trend Better? ft. Scott Kerson
In this episode, Moritz Seibert is by Scott Kerson, the Head of GreshamQuant. Gresham is a commodity-focused investment management firm and GreshamQuant is their systematic trading arm. In 2017, they launched the ACAR Fund, an alternative markets trend following fund with an exclusive focus on commodities. Scott and Moritz discuss why they believes alternative markets to have better trending properties and higher Sharpe ratios within a trend following context and why they refuse to trade a larger portfolio which would also include the traditional futures markets most other CTAs trade. At the end, Scott also shares his outlook on the alternative markets CTA space with us. If you’re interested in alternative markets trend following, this is a valuable episode to listen to. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Scott on LinkedInEpisode TimeStamps: 02:22 - Introduction to Scott Kerson08:27 - When did AHL Evolution start and what is it?13:54 - What is an alternative market to Kerson and what differentiates it from other markets?20:25 - Why an exclusive focus on commodities?22:45 - What markets are Kerson trading and why?24:04 - Where are the hidden gems?26:31 - Why Kerson restrict the markets he is trading30:37 - Maintaining a neo-classical trend approach31:26 - A need for long-term?33:09 - What is