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Money Talk Podcast, Friday March 31, 2023
Yesterday
Money Talk Podcast, Friday March 31, 2023
Landaas & Company newsletter  April edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Tom Pappenfus Kendall Bauer (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Reuben Neese) Week in Review (March 27-31, 2023) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major releases Tuesday The annual gain in housing prices slipped to 3.8% in January, the 10th consecutive deceleration since cresting at a record 20.8% last March, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. An analyst with the longstanding report said higher mortgage rates and a weaker economy continued to soften housing market conditions and should remain as head winds to further lower prices. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose in March on slightly improved expectations. But the business research group said expectations remained below a level that often signals economic recession within the next year. Expectations have been below that level 12 of the last 13 months. The survey-based index found less confidence in current economic conditions. Consumer expectations for near-term inflation suggested a dampening effect on spending. Wednesday Three months of data suggests the housing market is turning a corner, according to the National Association of Realtors. The trade group’s index on pending home sales rose 0.8% in February for a third consecutive increase. The Realtors said because figures for home sales, pending sales and contracts for new construction have risen three months in a row, “the housing sector’s contraction is coming to an end.” The group cited recent improvements in mortgage rates, which it said especially helped affordable housing markets in the Midwest and South. Compared to the year before, pending sales were down 21%. Thursday The U.S. economy rose at an annual pace of 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to a final estimate of the gross domestic product. The growth rate was down from 2.7% in the previous estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, mostly because the annual rate of consumer spending grew by 1%, instead of the earlier estimate of 1.4%. Adjusted for inflation, the economy advanced 5.1% from its pre-COVID peak at the end of 2019. The Federal Reserve’s favorite measure of inflation showed a 5.7% increase from the fourth quarter of 2021, down from 6.3% in the third quarter and 6.6% in the second quarter. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in three weeks but was still 46% below the all-time rolling average for new claims. The Labor Department said 1.9 million Americans were claiming unemployment compensation in the latest week, down nearly 2% from the week before but up more than 7% from its level the year before, when special pandemic relief programs had expired. Friday By far the biggest driver of the U.S. economy, consumer spending rose 0.2% in February, slightly below the 0.3% gain in personal income. Adjusted for inflation, though, personal expenditures declined 0.1% in March, the third drop in four months, suggesting a slowing in the economy. The Bureau of Economic Analysis also reported the fifth consecutive increase in personal savings – both in amount and as a percent of disposable income. The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge showed a 5% increase from February 2022 – the lowest rate since September 2021. Inflation had risen to 7% in June, the highest in four decades. The Fed’s long-range target is 2%. Another sign of economic slowdown was the first setback in four months for consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan said its longstanding survey found consumers souring both on current conditions and future expectations. The sentiment index slipped to 62 from a reading of 67 in February. It stood at 59.4 the year before. A university economist said consumers are signaling they're expecting a recession. Consumer projections of near-term inflation were the lowest in nearly two ye...
Money Talk Podcast, Friday March 31, 2023
Yesterday
Money Talk Podcast, Friday March 31, 2023
Landaas & Company newsletter  April edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Tom Pappenfus Kendall Bauer (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Reuben Neese) Week in Review (March 27-31, 2023) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major releases Tuesday The annual gain in housing prices slipped to 3.8% in January, the 10th consecutive deceleration since cresting at a record 20.8% last March, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. An analyst with the longstanding report said higher mortgage rates and a weaker economy continued to soften housing market conditions and should remain as head winds to further lower prices. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose in March on slightly improved expectations. But the business research group said expectations remained below a level that often signals economic recession within the next year. Expectations have been below that level 12 of the last 13 months. The survey-based index found less confidence in current economic conditions. Consumer expectations for near-term inflation suggested a dampening effect on spending. Wednesday Three months of data suggests the housing market is turning a corner, according to the National Association of Realtors. The trade group’s index on pending home sales rose 0.8% in February for a third consecutive increase. The Realtors said because figures for home sales, pending sales and contracts for new construction have risen three months in a row, “the housing sector’s contraction is coming to an end.” The group cited recent improvements in mortgage rates, which it said especially helped affordable housing markets in the Midwest and South. Compared to the year before, pending sales were down 21%. Thursday The U.S. economy rose at an annual pace of 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to a final estimate of the gross domestic product. The growth rate was down from 2.7% in the previous estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, mostly because the annual rate of consumer spending grew by 1%, instead of the earlier estimate of 1.4%. Adjusted for inflation, the economy advanced 5.1% from its pre-COVID peak at the end of 2019. The Federal Reserve’s favorite measure of inflation showed a 5.7% increase from the fourth quarter of 2021, down from 6.3% in the third quarter and 6.6% in the second quarter. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in three weeks but was still 46% below the all-time rolling average for new claims. The Labor Department said 1.9 million Americans were claiming unemployment compensation in the latest week, down nearly 2% from the week before but up more than 7% from its level the year before, when special pandemic relief programs had expired. Friday By far the biggest driver of the U.S. economy, consumer spending rose 0.2% in February, slightly below the 0.3% gain in personal income. Adjusted for inflation, though, personal expenditures declined 0.1% in March, the third drop in four months, suggesting a slowing in the economy. The Bureau of Economic Analysis also reported the fifth consecutive increase in personal savings – both in amount and as a percent of disposable income. The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge showed a 5% increase from February 2022 – the lowest rate since September 2021. Inflation had risen to 7% in June, the highest in four decades. The Fed’s long-range target is 2%. Another sign of economic slowdown was the first setback in four months for consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan said its longstanding survey found consumers souring both on current conditions and future expectations. The sentiment index slipped to 62 from a reading of 67 in February. It stood at 59.4 the year before. A university economist said consumers are signaling they're expecting a recession. Consumer projections of near-term inflation were the lowest in nearly two ye...
Money Talk Podcast, March 24, 2023
Mar 24 2023
Money Talk Podcast, March 24, 2023
Landaas & Company newsletter  March edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Adam Baley (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (March 20-24, 2023) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday No major announcements Tuesday The annual rate of existing home sales rose 14.5% to nearly 4.6 million in February, the first increase after 12 consecutive declines. Still, the pace was 23% slower than the year before, as higher mortgage rates have stifled activity. The National Association of Realtors said improved sales in February were most noticeable where mortgage rates and home prices softened and jobs were growing. Inventories remained near record lows, with only 2.6 months supply. The median sales price was $363,000, down 0.2% from the year before, the first time the year-to-year price fell in nearly 11 years. Wednesday The Federal Open Market Committee, the policy-making panel of the Federal Reserve Board, announced another 0.25 percentage point raise in the short-term fed funds rate. It was the ninth increase in the rate in the last year, raising it from nearly nothing to more than 4.5% in order to cool the overall economy and control inflation. The Fed reaffirmed its commitment to a long-range inflation rate of 2%. The broadly based Consumer Price Index reached 6% in February, having dropped from more than 9% in June. A word cloud of the Fed's statement emphasizes words used by their frequency. Thursday Labor market conditions showed continued strength, with the four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims remaining 47% below the 56-year average. The indicator of employers’ reluctance to let workers go fell for the second week in a row, according to the Labor Department. Total claims dropped 3% from the week before to 1.9 million, which was up 4% from the same time the year before. The Commerce Department said new home sales rose 1% in February from the January pace but were 19% behind where they were the year before. A joint announcement with the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported an annual sales rate of 640,000 new houses, marking the 10th month in a row below the pre-pandemic mark of 690,000. The median sales price rose to $438,200, a 2.5% increase from February 2022. The year-to-year median price declined in January for the first time since August 2020. Friday Demand for manufactured items showed overall resilience in February despite the third decline in durable goods orders in four months. Drops in orders for commercial aircraft and automotive products brought down the monthly headline figure from the Commerce Department, as total orders fell 1%. However, orders were unchanged from January when excluding volatile demand for transportation equipment. Compared to the year before, overall orders rose 2% while orders excluding transportation rose 1.9%. Orders for core capital goods, a proxy for business investments, increased for the second month in a row and were up 4.3% from February 2022. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK Nasdaq – 11824, up 193 points or 1.7% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3963, up 47 points or 1.2% Dow Jones Industrial – 32231, up 369 points or  1.2% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.38%, down 0.02 point Not a Landaas & Company client yet? Click here to learn more. More information and insight from Money Talk Money Talk Videos Follow us on Twitter. Landaas newsletter subscribers return to the newsletter via e-mail
Money Talk Podcast, Friday March 17, 2023
Mar 17 2023
Money Talk Podcast, Friday March 17, 2023
Landaas & Company newsletter  March edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Steve Giles Kendall Bauer (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (March 13-17, 2023) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday No major announcements Tuesday The broadest measure of inflation continued narrowing in February but remained far above the 2% long-range target of the Federal Reserve. The Consumer Price Index rose 6% from February 2022, unadjusted for inflation. That was down from 6.4% in January and the lowest rate since September 2021. The annual rate decelerated for the eighth month in a row after exceeding 9% last June. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said shelter costs accounted for 70% of the monthly gain in the price index while higher food costs offset lower prices overall. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 5.5% from the year before, the lowest rate since December 2021. Wednesday Signs of moderation appeared in wholesale inflation numbers for February. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Producer Price Index sank 0.1% from January, the second contraction in three months. Prices for goods led the decline, but service costs also went down. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the core PPI rose 0.2% from January. Year to year, unadjusted for inflation, the headline PPI rose 4.6% in February, slowing for the eighth month in a row, down from 11.6% last March. The core PPI rose 4.4% from the year before, unchanged from January. U.S. consumer spending dipped in February, as retail sales fell 0.4%, according to the Commerce Department. That was down from a gain of 3.2% in January. Sales declined in eight of 13 retail categories, led by bars and restaurants, furniture stores, car dealers and gas stations. Adjusting for inflation, retail sales slipped by 0.8% in February, the third decline in four months. Economists watch retail sales for signs of consumer spending, which drives about two-thirds of the gross domestic product. Thursday The pace in housing starts rose 9.8% in February, though it was down 18% from the year earlier and 16% below the pace just before the pandemic. The Commerce Department and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported that multi-family residences continued to outpace single-family structures. The disparity was particularly noticeable in the pace of housing under construction, where single-family units have been dropping for eight months straight. Though building permits were down from February 2022, they were ahead of the pre-pandemic level and close to their level in early 2007. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the first time in four weeks, reaching 47% below the 56-year average. Data from the Labor Department continued to suggest a tight job market in which employers are reluctant to let workers go. Some 2 million individuals were claiming jobless benefits in the latest week, up 4% from the week before and up 2% from the year before that. Friday U.S. industrial output was unchanged in February after a slight gain in January, its first expansion in four months. Total production declined 0.2% from the year before. The Federal Reserve reported that manufacturing production increased slightly for the second month in a row but was down 1% from February 2022. Capacity utilization—considered a leading indicator of inflation—also was unchanged from January and remained below the 50-year average for the fourth month in a row. Both current economic conditions and expectations scored lower in a preliminary March reading of consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan said its longstanding survey showed consumers downgrading the economy for the first time in four months–mostly among respondents who were young with low levels of education and income. Expectations for inflation edged down from recent months,
Money Talk Podcast, Friday March 10, 2023
Mar 10 2023
Money Talk Podcast, Friday March 10, 2023
Landaas & Company newsletter  March edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Adam Baley Tom Pappenfus (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (March 6-10, 2023) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday A drop in commercial aircraft demand sent U.S. factory orders lower in January for the second time in three months. The Commerce Department said orders overall declined 1.6% from December and were 4.3% ahead of their level the year before. Excluding volatile orders for transportation equipment, demand rose 1.2% from the month before and was up 4.3% from January 2022. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.8% for the month and 5.5% from the year before. Tuesday The Federal Reserve said credit card debt rose at an annual pace of 11.1% in January, far swifter than the overall 3.7% annualized increase in consumer debt outstanding. Measured year to year, credit card debt rose 15.6% from January 2022, the sixth month in a row to exceed 15%. Sustained use of credit cards suggests consumers continued spending at higher levels despite Fed interest rate increases aimed at weakening demand to help lower decades-high inflation. Wednesday The U.S. trade deficit widened by 1.6% to $68.3 billion in January, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. During the month, exports rose by 3.4%, led by pharmaceuticals and autos, offset by a decline in service exports such as travel. Meanwhile, imports rose 3% from December, driven by automotive goods, cell phones and travel services. Compared to January 2022, the trade gap narrowed by 22% as exports rose 13% and imports grew 3.5%. Economists consider trade deficits a detraction from overall economic growth. U.S. employers posted 10.8 million job openings in January, down from an upwardly revised 11.2 million in December. Demand for workers continued to outstrip supply as the number of unemployed workers seeking work in January reached 5.7 million, according to earlier reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The biggest declines in job postings in January were at construction companies, hotels and restaurants, and financial and insurance companies. The number and rate of layoffs increased, while quits – a measure of worker confidence – declined. Thursday The Labor Department reported the four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the fourth week in a row, though it remained 46% below its average since 1967. Total claims for the latest week declined 2% from the week before to 1.9 million. That was just above the mark from the year before and down from 20.8 million at the same time in 2021. Friday Employers added 311,000 jobs in February, and the unemployment rate edged up from its lowest level since 1969. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly jobs report, combining payroll data and household surveys, showed the robust pace of hiring slowing from the six-month average of 336,000 jobs per month and the 12-month average of 362,000. The leisure and hospitality industry accounted for about a third of the jobs gain in February but remained more than 400,000 (2%) behind its level just before the pandemic. Overall payrolls were up 3 million jobs (2%) from February 2020. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 3.6% from 3.4% in January with a rise in the number of workers losing jobs or completing temporary positions. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK Nasdaq – 11139, down 550 points or 4.7% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3862, down 184 points or 4.5% Dow Jones Industrial – 31910, down 1481 points or  4.4% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.70%, down 0.27 point Not a Landaas & Company client yet? Click here to learn more. More information and insight from Money Talk Money Talk Videos Follow us on Twitter. Landaas newsletter subscribers return to the newsletter via e-mail
Money Talk Podcast, Friday March 3, 2023
Mar 3 2023
Money Talk Podcast, Friday March 3, 2023
Landaas & Company newsletter  March edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Steve Giles Dave Sandstrom (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Feb. 27-March 3, 2023) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday The Commerce Department said durable goods orders fell 4.5% in January. A drop in commercial aircraft orders accounted for the bulk of the decline, which was the biggest setback since April 2020. Excluding the volatile transportation industry, demand for long-lasting manufactured items rose 0.7% from December and was up 2.6% from the year before. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.8% from December and 5.3% from January 2022. Commitments to home ownership rose again in January, according to the pending home sales index of the National Association of Realtors. The trade group said demand increased 8% from December, up for the second straight month following six consecutive declines. The index was 24% below its level in January 2022. The Realtors cited lower mortgage rates and strong employment for the two-month revival but forecast that full-year sales would fall 11% in 2023 to about 4.5 million existing houses. The association said the median sales price should decline 1.6% this year to $380,100. Tuesday Housing prices continued to weaken in December amid higher mortgage rates and concerns of recession, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. Compared to the year before, the index rose 5.8%, the lowest gain since July 2020. The price increase has been dropping every month since last March, when it peaked at 20.8%. An analyst for S&P said macroeconomic conditions should continue to hamper demand for home buying and price gains should continue to decelerate. The Conference Board reported another decline in its consumer confidence index in February, the second drop in a row. Consumers had a slightly higher opinion of current economic conditions because of a robust job market, the business research group said, but expectations remained below a level associated with recessions for the 11th time in 12 months. The group said survey results showed diminished expectations for inflation at the same time that fewer consumers were planning on big-ticket purchases or vacations. Wednesday The manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth month in a row in February, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s index showed manufacturers continuing to ease up on production and hiring to try to keep pace with weaker demand. The group also said the purchasing managers it surveyed anticipated a revival in business activity in the second half of the year. The annual pace of construction spending fell in January, the second month in a row, the Commerce Department reported. Spending on residential construction, which makes up nearly half of all spending, declined for the eighth consecutive month. Total construction spending was up 5.7% from the year before, but residential outlays were down 3.8%. Public construction spending dipped nearly 1% for the month but was up 11.1% from January 2022. Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims declined for the third  week in a row but remained historically low — 48%  below the 56-year average, signifying the strong job market. The Labor Department also reported that total jobless claims declined 1% in the latest week to just below 2 million, slightly lower than the year before and down from more than 18.5 million at the same time in 2021. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity rose at an annual pace of 1.7% in the fourth quarter, down from an earlier estimate of 3%. The rate resulted from the annual pace of output rising 3.1% in the last four months of the year while hours worked rose 1.4%. Productivity declined 1.8% in the last four quarters,
Money Talk Podcast, Friday Feb. 24, 2023
Feb 24 2023
Money Talk Podcast, Friday Feb. 24, 2023
Landaas & Company newsletter  February edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Adam Baley Tom Pappenfus (with Jason Scuglik, Joel Dresang) Week in Review (Feb. 20-24, 2023) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday Markets closed for Presidents Day Tuesday The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales slowed in January for the 12th month in a row. The annual sales rate fell to 4 million houses, down less than 1% from December’s pace but 37% below its level of 6.3 million in January 2022. The trade association contended that sales have bottomed out, citing growth in places with lower home values. Inventories rose slightly from December but remained less than half the level considered sustainable to balance supply and demand. The median sales price, $359,000, was up about 1% from the year before, marking the 131st consecutive year-to-year gain. Wednesday No major releases Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment insurance claims rose for the second week in a row following nine consecutive declines. The level was 48% below the 56-year average, according to new Labor Department data. The level returned to where it was just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Barely 2 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, just below the year-earlier level but down from nearly 20 million claims at the same time in 2021. The U.S. economy rose slightly less than initially estimated in the fourth quarter, with gross domestic product expanding at a 2.7% annual rate. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending, which drives about two-thirds of economic activity, rose at an annual rate of 1.4% from October through December, down from an initial estimate of 2.1%. Business investments, particularly in software, were stronger than initially estimated. Imports, which offset economic growth, declined less than estimated. For all of 2021, the economy grew by 0.9%, adjusting for inflation. It was up 6.3% from its peak just before the pandemic. Friday The Commerce Department said new home sales rose in January to an annual rate of 670,000 houses. That was up 7% from December’s rate but 19% behind the 831,000-house pace in January 2022. The median price for a new house was $427,500, down nearly 1% from the year before, marking the first time since August 2020 that the year-to-year comparison declined. The number of new houses for sale in January fell for the fourth month in a row. The Bureau of Economic Analysis showed consumer spending rising in January for the first time in three months and at the highest rate since the March 2021 federal stimulus payment. Expenditures increased 1.8% while personal income rose 0.6%. After adjusting for inflation and taxes, January was the fourth month in a row for income to outpace spending. As a result, the personal saving rate rose for the fourth month straight. The Federal Reserve’s main gauge of inflation stayed well above its long-range target of 2%. The year-to-year inflation rate hit 5.4% after hitting 5.3% in December, which was down from a 41-year high of 7% in June. A precursor to spending, consumer sentiment, ticked up for the third month in a row. The University of Michigan said its survey-based index remained closer to its all-time low in June than to the historical average. Improved outlooks toward current economic conditions mostly boosted overall sentiment, the university said, especially among wealthier stockholders. Ongoing uncertainty over inflation prompted a forecast of unstable expectations for the near future. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK Nasdaq – 11395, down 392 points or 3.3% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3970, down 109 points or 2.7% Dow Jones Industrial – 32817, down 1010 points or  3.0% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.95%, up 0.12 point Not a Landaas & Company client yet? Click here to learn more.
Money Talk Podcast, Friday Feb. 17, 2023
Feb 17 2023
Money Talk Podcast, Friday Feb. 17, 2023
Landaas & Company newsletter  February edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Kendall Bauer (with Jason Scuglik and Joel Dresang) Week in Review (Feb. 13-17, 2023) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major announcements Tuesday The broadest measure of U.S. inflation showed the pace continued to ease in January. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Consumer Price Index rose 6.4% from January 2022. The rate was down for the seventh month in a row after hitting a 41-year high of 9.1% in June, but it was still far above the Federal Reserve’s long-range target of 2%. Shelter costs accounted for about half of the 0.5% increase in the index from December. Food and energy prices also contributed to the monthly gain. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, the core CPI rose 5.6% from the year before, the fourth monthly decline after a recent peak of 6.6% in September. Wednesday Suggesting revived consumer demand, retail sales rose 3% in January, the first increase in three months. The Commerce Department reported that all 13 major retail categories increased revenue in January, led by bars and restaurants and car dealerships. Only electronics and appliance stores posted a decline from the year before, when sales overall rose more than 6%. Since January 2022, sales at bars and restaurants jumped 25%. Total retail sales adjusted for inflation also rose for the first time in three months but remained below the peak set last March. The Federal Reserve reported no change in industrial production in January as utilities suffered from an unseasonably warm month following an unseasonably cold December. The falloff in utilities output offset the first gains in three months from both manufacturing and mining. Overall industrial output has not had a monthly gain since September. Industries’ capacity utilization rate fell for the fourth month in a row and for the second consecutive month stayed below the 50-year average. High capacity rates can indicate rising inflation. Thursday The Commerce Department showed continued weakening in housing in January, as the annual rate of building permits and housing starts trended lower, below pre-pandemic levels. Permits, which indicate plans for future construction, were 8% under where they were in February 2020, with authorizations for single-family housing slowing for the 11th month in a row. Housing starts slipped more than 4% from December, with new single-family construction down 19% from its pre-pandemic pace and 36% behind December 2020, which was the highest point since before the financial crisis. The annual rate of houses under construction also declined slightly in January but remained near record levels. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in 10 weeks. An indication of employers’ reluctance to let go of workers, the rolling average stayed 49% below the 56-year average and was near its all-time low, reached last April. Total jobless claims rose less than 1% from the week before to 1.9 million, compared to nearly 2.1 million the year before and 18.9 million claims at the same time in 2021. Inflation on the wholesale level rose 0.7% in January, reversing a slight decline in December. Prices for goods gained more than those for services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Producer Price Index increased 6% from the year before, the slowest pace since March 2021, down from a peak of 11.7% last March. The core PPI, which excludes volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, rose 0.6% for the month and 4.5% from the year before, also the lowest 12-month gain in nearly two years. Friday U.S. economic growth slowed in January, though not as much as in December. Still, the Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators suggests a recession in 2023. The index was down 3.6% in the latest six months, compared to a 2.
Money Talk Podcast, Friday Feb. 10, 2023
Feb 10 2023
Money Talk Podcast, Friday Feb. 10, 2023
Landaas & Company newsletter  February edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom Mike Hoelzl (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Kevin Lofy) Week in Review (Feb. 6-10, 2023) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major releases Tuesday The U.S. trade deficit expanded to a record $948 billion in 2022, 12% wider than in 2021, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. In December alone, the gap grew more than 10% as exports shrank, led by declines of industrial materials and consumer goods. Imports rose in December, with U.S. consumers buying more imported automobiles and cell phones. As a share of the overall economy, the trade deficit was 3.7% of gross domestic product in 2022, up from 3.6% in 2021. In another sign that economic growth may be slowing, the Federal Reserve reported a lower increase in consumer credit card debt outstanding in December. So-called revolving debt rose at a 7.3% annual rate in December, down from nearly 16% in November and the slowest in 17 months. The pace of consumer credit debt overall – including student loans and automotive financing – rose 2.9% in December. With consumer spending driving about two-thirds of the gross domestic product, credit card debt can be considered a gauge of spending confidence. The level in December was $96 billion or 9% above its pre-pandemic peak. Wednesday No major releases Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims declined for the ninth week in a row, reaching the lowest level since April. Data from the Labor Department showed the latest four-week average was 49% below the all-time average, dating back to 1967. As an early measure of layoff trends, new jobless claims have suggested employers’ reluctance to let workers go in a tight labor market. Total claims rose 2.7% from the week before to 1.9 million, which was 13% lower than the year before and less than one-tenth the total at the same time in 2021. Friday The University of Michigan said consumer sentiment edged up from January as well as the year before, but overall it was 22% below its average since 1978. Short-term inflation continued to worry consumers as well as a concern that higher unemployment may lie ahead. University researchers said their survey results suggest consumers will be cautious in coming months. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK Nasdaq – 11718, down 289 points or 2.4% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4090, down 46 points or 1.1% Dow Jones Industrial – 33869, down 57 points or  0.2% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.74%, up 0.21 point Not a Landaas & Company client yet? Click here to learn more. More information and insight from Money Talk Money Talk Videos Follow us on Twitter. Landaas newsletter subscribers return to the newsletter via e-mail
Money Talk Podcast, Friday Feb. 3, 2023
Feb 3 2023
Money Talk Podcast, Friday Feb. 3, 2023
Landaas & Company newsletter  February edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Steve Giles Paige Radke (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Jan. 30-Feb. 3, 2023) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major reports Tuesday In the face of rising mortgage rates and a slowing economy, home prices continued to decline in November. According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index, the year-to-year increase in prices decelerated for the eighth month in a row, dropping to a 7.7% gain in November, down from a record peak of nearly 21% in March. A spokesman for the index said further interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve and the possibility of recession should put a further damper on home prices. The Conference Board said lower opinions of current economic conditions sent the consumer confidence index down in January. The business research group said survey responses suggested the U.S. will suffer a recession within the year. It said confidence had dropped mostly among younger households with lower incomes. At the same time, overall expectations for incomes, purchases and inflation held relatively steady from December. Wednesday The manufacturing sector contracted in January for the third month in a row, the Institute for Supply Management reported. The trade group said its index, based on surveys of industry purchasing managers, reflected declining output trying to match up with nine months of weakening demand. At the same time, the employment component grew for the second straight month with managers saying they want to be prepared for a comeback in orders in the second half of the year. The gap between the number of job openings and unemployed job seekers reached a record high of 5.3 million in December, the most in five months, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report. Employers posted 11 million job openings in December, up from 10.4 million in November, led by hotels and restaurants, retailers and construction companies. In December, nearly 4.1 million workers quit their jobs, down marginally for the third time in four months but still indicating worker confidence in finding new positions. Housing led a 0.4% decrease in construction spending in December. A Commerce Department report showed it was the first decline in four months. Residential expenditures, which make up about half of all spending, dropped off for the month but were up almost 2% from the year before. Government spending on construction fell 0.4% in December but was up 12% from December 2021. Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the eighth week in a row, reaching its lowest level since last May. Reflecting employer resistance to letting go of workers in a historically tight labor market, the moving average was 48% below the average since records began in 1967. The Labor Department said the total number of Americans claiming jobless benefits declined 2% from the week before to 1.9 million, down from 2.2 million the year before, which was down from 18.5 million at the same time in 2021. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity rose at an annual rate of 3% in the fourth quarter, the swiftest pace in a year. The productivity rate resulted from rises of 3.5% in output and 0.5% in hours worked. Although recent quarters suggest productivity is increasing, on average, it sank 1.3% for all of 2022, the poorest showing since 1974. Unit labor costs rose 5.7% in 2022, the most in 40 years. The Commerce Department said factory orders rose 1.9% in December, the fourth increase in five months, largely because of a rebound in orders for commercial aircraft. Excluding transportation equipment, orders sank 1.2% from November and were up 10.3% from the year before. A proxy for business investments fell 0.1% for the month and was up 8.3% from its year-earlier level. Friday
Money Talk Podcast, Friday Jan. 27, 2023
Jan 27 2023
Money Talk Podcast, Friday Jan. 27, 2023
Landaas & Company newsletter  January edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom Tom Pappenfus (with Jason Scuglik and Joel Dresang) Week in Review (Jan. 23-27, 2023) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday The Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators declined again in December, further signaling a near-term recession. The business research group said its gauge fell 1% from November, following a 1.1% drop from October. Over the last half of 2022, the index fell 4.2%, steepening from a 1.9% decline in the first six months of the year. Although measures of employment and personal income appeared “robust,” the group said, weakness in manufacturing, housing construction and financial markets suggest recession. The Conference Board forecast a revival in the economy toward the end of the year. Tuesday No major releases Wednesday No major releases Thursday The Commerce Department reported durable goods orders rose 5.6% in December for the fourth gain in five months. A surge in aircraft orders – both commercial and military – boosted the manufacturing indicator after it declined 1.1% in November. Excluding volatile transportation equipment, orders declined slightly in December for the second time in four months. Compared to December 2021, orders for long-lasting factory goods rose more than 10%. Excluding transportation equipment, demand rose 6% from the year before. A proxy for business investment gained 8% from December 2021. The U.S. economy rose at an annual pace of 2.9% in the fourth quarter, down from a 3.2% rate in the previous three months. The Bureau of Economic Analysis cited consumer spending, business inventories and commercial investments in intellectual property among the contributors to the boost in gross domestic product. After setbacks in the first two quarters of 2022, GDP rose 1% from the year before, adjusted for inflation. The Federal Reserve Board’s favorite measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, rose 5.5% from the year before, the lowest in five quarters. The core PCE, excluding food and energy prices, was up 4.7% from the end of 2021, its slowest rate in a year. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the seventh week in a row to its lowest level since early May. The average was 46% below the all-time average dating back to 1967. The Labor Department 1.9 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down from 2.3 million the year before and 19 million and the same time in 2021. The Commerce Department reported a 2.3% gain in the annual rate of new home sales in December. Despite the increase, sales were down 27% from the year before and 11% below where they were just before the pandemic. The median sales price rose 8% from the year before to $442,100. In 2022, 41% of new homes were sold at $500,000 or more, compared to 30% in 2021. Friday The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending fell 0.2% in December, the second consecutive slowdown for a chief measure of economic growth. The decline was 0.3% when adjusted for inflation and suggest individuals have been giving pause to spending amid high inflation and rising interest rates. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of GDP. The personal saving rate rose for the third month in a row. The personal consumption expenditures index, which the Fed follows for inflation, rose 5% from December 2021, the slightest incline in 15 months. The rate remained far above the long-range Fed target of 2% inflation, but it was down from 7% in June, a 40-year high. Though it stayed near a record low, consumer sentiment improved in January for the second month in a row. The longstanding survey-based index from the University of Michigan  showed attitudes toward current conditions getting a big boost from perceptions of strong incomes and easing inflation.
Money Talk Podcast, Friday Jan. 20, 2023
Jan 20 2023
Money Talk Podcast, Friday Jan. 20, 2023
Landaas & Company newsletter  January edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Adam Baley Paige Radke (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Jan. 16-20, 2023) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday Markets closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day Tuesday No major announcements Wednesday In another sign of slowing inflation, the Producer Price Index declined 0.5% in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It was the first monthly slip in wholesale inflation since August and brought the year-to-year measure to 6.2%, the lowest since March 2021. For the month, prices declined for goods and rose slightly for services. Excluding volatile food, energy and trade services prices, the core PPI rose 0.1% from December, its weakest move since November 2020. The Commerce Department said retail sales declined in December for the second month in a row and the third time in four months. The drop-off was widespread across retail categories, including bars and restaurants, but particularly noticeable among car dealers and furniture stores, which are especially vulnerable to rising interest rates. Only building supply centers and sporting goods stores had more sales in December. Adjusting for inflation, retail sales were up 12% since the onset of the pandemic in February 2020. Industrial production also declined in December for the second straight month. The Federal Reserve Board said output from factories, mines and utilities fell 0.7% from November, which was 0.6% lower than October. Manufacturing production fell broadly across sectors with only defense and space equipment markets gaining. Industries’ capacity utilization rate – an indicator of inflation – sank for the third month in a row, dipping to its lowest level in a year and below its 50-year average for the second consecutive month. Thursday The pace of U.S. housing starts and building permits continued to slow in December. Both activities dipped below pre-pandemic levels as higher interest rates and lower demand have discouraged developers and builders. The Commerce Department said the annual pace of permits declined nearly 2% from November and was down 30% from December 2021. Starts were down more than 1% from the month before and down 22% from the year before. As new construction slowed, completions outpaced starts, and the level of houses under construction hit a record high, based on data going back to 1970. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the sixth week in a row to its lowest level since May. An indicator of employers’ reluctance to let workers go, the moving average was 44% below the average since 1967, according to Labor Department data. Meanwhile, total claims for jobless benefits rose 9% from the week before to 1.9 million. That was down from 2.3 million the year before and 16.9 million the year before that. Friday Full-year existing home sales reached just above 5 million, a 18% drop from 2021, which had been the highest level since 2006. The National Association of Realtors said limited supply and high mortgage rates slowed sales by 1.5% from November, the 11th decline in a row. But the trade group also said it expected sales to pick up soon because inventories were up about 10% from the year before and mortgage rates have been receding since a recent peak above 7% for  a traditional loan in November. The median sales price rose 2.3% from the year before to $366,900, the 130th consecutive year-to-year gain. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK Nasdaq – 11140, up 61 points or 0.6% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3972, down 27 points or 0.7% Dow Jones Industrial – 33374, down 928 points or  2.7% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.48%, down 0.03 point Not a Landaas & Company client yet? Click here to learn more. More information and insight from Money Talk Money Talk Videos Follow us on Twitter.
Money Talk Podcast, Friday Jan. 13, 2023
Jan 13 2023
Money Talk Podcast, Friday Jan. 13, 2023
Landaas & Company newsletter  January edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom Paige Radke (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Jan. 9-13, 2023) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday Credit card debt rose to a record $1.18 trillion in November, a sign that consumers remain confident spending amid rising interest rates and decades-high inflation. The Federal Reserve Board reported that overall consumer credit outstanding, including vehicle financing and student loans, rose at an annual rate of 7.1% from October. Revolving credit card debt rose at a 16.9% annual pace, up from 10.3% in October and 8.2% in September. Consumer spending drives about 70% of U.S. economic activity and has been expected to slow as the Fed tries to tamp down inflation. Tuesday No major announcements Wednesday No major announcements Thursday The broadest measure of inflation showed prices rising at the slowest annual pace since October 2021. The Consumer Price Index rose 6.5% in the 12 months since December 2021. Down for the sixth month in a row since reaching a 40-year high of 9% in June, the rate is still well above the Fed’s long-range target of 2%. Lower prices for gasoline and airline travel helped slow both the one-year and one-month inflation rates overall, but they offset increased costs for food and shelter. The core CPI, which excludes volatile prices for food and energy, rose 5.7% from December 2021, the lowest in a year. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the fifth week in a row, staying 42% below the long-term average and hitting its lowest point since mid-October. The Labor Department said 1.7 million Americans claimed jobless benefits the week after Christmas, up 8% from the week before but down from 2.1 million the year before, vs. 19.4 million the year before that. Friday A preliminary January reading of consumer sentiment suggested attitudes continuing to brighten, though they’re still historically low. The University of Michigan said its longstanding index rose to 64.6 mid-month, up from 59.7 in December and down from 67.2 in January 2022. The survey-based index showed improvements both in expectations and in assessments of current conditions. Sentiment toward personal finances was the highest in eight months amid rising incomes and lower inflation. Expectations for inflation eased a bit but remained fraught with uncertainty. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK Nasdaq – 11079, up 510 points or 4.8% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3999, up 104 points or 2.7% Dow Jones Industrial – 34303, up 672 points or  2.0% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.51%, down 0.06 point Not a Landaas & Company client yet? Click here to learn more. More information and insight from Money Talk Money Talk Videos Follow us on Twitter. Landaas newsletter subscribers return to the newsletter via e-mail