Landaas & Company Money Talk Podcast

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Money Talk Podcast, Friday June 2, 2023
1w ago
Money Talk Podcast, Friday June 2, 2023
Landaas & Company newsletter  June edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Mike Hoelzl (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Kevin Lofy) Week in Review (May 29-June 2, 2023) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday Markets and government closed for Memorial Day Tuesday Housing prices continued to decelerate in March, although some data suggested the trend might be reversing. The S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller home price index grew at a 12-month rate of 0.7%, down from nearly 21% the year before, which was the highest in more than 35 years of data. An analyst for S&P noted regional differences with home prices rising faster in the Southeast (up 5.4%) and actually declining in the Northwest (down 6.2%). Also, month-to-month measures suggested price gains may be increasing again, despite higher mortgage rates in the last year and a weaker economy. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index declined in May, though not as much as analysts expected. The business and research group said perceived weakness in the labor market lowered views of current conditions. Expectations for the economy faded slightly and remained below the level associated with recession for the 14th time in 15 months. Consumers older than 55 especially soured on the outlook. Wednesday U.S. employers posted 10.1 million job openings in April, up 3.7% from March, making it the first increase in four months. Retailers and health care employers led the gain in want ads, as the gap grew between jobs posted and unemployed job seekers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also reported a 4.7% decline in the number of layoffs, led by the construction industry. The degree to which workers were quitting their jobs voluntarily – a sign of worker confidence in the hiring market – remained steady, down from the historic peak of the year before but still well above the long-time average. Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims declined for the third time in four weeks to its lowest level since March and 38% below the all-time average, dating back to 1967. New Labor Department data showed more than 1.6 million Americans claimed unemployment compensation in the latest week, down marginally from the week before, up from 1.3 million the year before but down from more than 15 million at the same time in 2021. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity fell at an annual rate of 2.1% in the first quarter. Non-farm output rose at an annual pace of 0.5% in the first three months of the year while hours worked rose at a 2.6% rate. Since the first quarter of 2022, productivity dipped 0.8% for the fifth consecutive quarter of decline, which had never happened before in data going back to 1947. Since just before the pandemic, productivity has increased by an annual rate of 1.1%, a historic low for business cycles, according to the BLS. Labor costs rose at a 4.2% rate in the first quarter, which factors in the 2.1% productivity growth and a 2.1% rise in hourly compensation. Since the first quarter of 2022, labor costs increased 3.8%. The manufacturing sector shrank again in May. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index landed under 50 for the seventh month in a row, suggesting the industry was contracting. Rises in production and employment components of the index were offset by declines in new orders, supplier deliveries and inventories. The trade group said its index, based on surveys of purchasing managers, suggested the U.S. economy was receding at an annual pace of 0.6%. The pace of construction spending rose 1.2% in April, the third increase in a row and the sixth in eight months. The record annual rate of more than $1.9 trillion was up 7.2% from April 2022, the Commerce Department reported. Residential spending, which accounts for about 45% of total spending, rose 0.4% from the March pace.
Money Talk Podcast, Friday May 26, 2023
May 26 2023
Money Talk Podcast, Friday May 26, 2023
Landaas & Company newsletter  June edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom Adam Baley (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (May 22-26, 2023) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major reports Tuesday The annual sales rate of new houses increased un April for the third month in a row and was up nearly 12% from the year before. The pace was 2% below where it was at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and down 33% from its recent peak in late 2020. The Commerce Department said the median price fell 8% from April 2022 to just under $421,000. Wednesday No major reports Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment insurance claims was unchanged with just one increase in the last six weeks, according to new data from the Labor Department. An indication of employer reluctance to let workers go, the moving average was down 37% from its long-time average going back to 1967. Some 1.6 million Americans received jobless benefits in the latest week, down 2.8% from the week before but up 24% from the year before. The U.S. economy grew slightly faster than initially estimated in the first quarter, rising at an annual rate of 1.3%. At first, the Bureau of Economic Analysis figured gross domestic product grew at a 1.1% annual pace, but consumer spending, exports, government spending and commercial investments increased more than estimated. Offsets occurred in part through declines in inventories and decreased residential spending – for the eighth consecutive quarter. The inflation-adjusted level of GDP was up 1.6% from the first quarter of 2022 and was 6.8% above the pre-pandemic peak. The Federal Reserve Board’s preferred inflation indicator showed a 4.2% increase from the year before, unchanged from previous estimates. The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index was unchanged in April but down more than 20% from April 2022 and down about 21% from what the trade group considers normal. The association blamed limited inventory and affordability challenges for a lull in commitments from homebuyers. Having more houses for sale, the Realtors said, would spur sales. Friday The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending rose 0.8% in April, the fourth gain in a row and the highest since January. Personal income meanwhile rose 0.4%, sending the personal saving rate down to 4.1% of disposable income, the first dip in seven months. In the same report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation rose 4.4% from April 2022, up from 4.2% in March. That’s down from a four-decade high of 7% last June but more than double the Fed’s long-term target of 2% inflation. A precursor to spending, consumer sentiment, declined further in May, erasing half the gains made since hitting an all-time low last June. The University of Michigan said descending sentiment mirrored how consumers reacted to the partisan debt ceiling standoff in 2011. Surveys showed consumers steady on inflation expectations and personal financial outlooks but worried that a recession would inflict lasting pain. The Commerce Department said military aircraft boosted durable goods orders 1.1% in April. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders slipped 0.2%; excluding military equipment, orders declined 0.6%. Since April, total orders rose 2.6% but were up just 0.3% excluding transportation and up 1.1% excluding defense orders. A proxy for business investments rose 1.4% from March and was up 2.7% from April 2022. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK Nasdaq – 12976, up 318 points or 2.5% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4205, up 13 points or 0.3% Dow Jones Industrial – 33093, down 333 points or 1.0% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.81%, up 0.17% Not a Landaas & Company client yet? Click here to learn more. More information and insight from Money Talk Money Talk Videos Follow us on Twitter.
Money Talk Podcast, Friday May 19, 2023
May 19 2023
Money Talk Podcast, Friday May 19, 2023
Landaas & Company newsletter  May edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Mike Hoelzl Kendall Bauer (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang engineered by Kevin Lofy) Week in Review (May 15-19, 2023) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major announcements Tuesday Consumers returned to car dealerships and home improvement centers and kept going to bars and restaurants in April, as retail sales rose for the first time in three months. The Commerce Department reported a 0.4% increase from March as revenue rose in seven of 13 categories. Spending at retailers advanced 1.6% from April 2022, with higher sales in six categories, including online and at restaurants and bars. Corrected for inflation, sales inched up 0.1% from March and were down 3.2% from April 2022, the fifth year-to-year decline in six months. The Federal Reserve said its industrial production index rose 0.5% in April after two months of moving sideways. A 1% surge in output boosted the index amid a minimal rise in the mining sector and a decline in utilities production resulting from mild weather. Auto making led the lift in manufacturing, which was up for the third time in four months. Total capacity utilization rate rose to 79.7%, the highest since November and on par with its average since 1972. Manufacturing capacity was near its long-term average, and mining capacity remained above normal. Meanwhile, utilities continued to be using less capacity than they have historically. Wednesday Construction of new houses quickened slightly while plans for more stepped back in April, according to a Commerce Department report on building permits and housing starts. The figures showed a 2% rise in the annual pace of starts compared to March at the same time permits fell nearly 2%. Relative to April 2022, both indicators were down more than 20%, coinciding with steep interest rate increases. Both starts and permits stayed below the pace heading into the COVID pandemic. The number of houses under construction remained near record highs, especially for multi-family housing. Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the first time in three weeks after hitting its highest level in 18 months. The average remained above the low point heading into the pandemic but was 34% below the 56-year average. Total claims fell 2% from the week before, just under 1.4 million applications, which was 23% higher than the year before, according to Labor Department data. The Conference Board said its leading economic indicators shrank 0.6% in April, the 13th consecutive decline, signaling recession. The business research group noted that weakness rose from a decline of 1.2% in March, but the six-month drop of 4.4% exceeded the fall during the prior six months. Based on its index, the Conference Board forecast a mild recession for the U.S. economy beginning midyear. A combination of strong job market, vacillating mortgage rates and limited supply is causing existing home sales to bounce around, resulting in a 3.4% decline in April, according to the National Association of Realtors. The annual sales rate fell to below 4.3 million houses, down 23.2% from April 2022. The trade group said inventories rose only slightly and were just 2.9 months’ supply at the current sales pace. The median price fell to $388,800, down 1.7% from the year before. It was the second straight year-to-year price drop after nearly 11 years of consecutive gains. Friday No major announcements MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK Nasdaq – 12658, up 373 points or 3% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4192, up 68 points or 1.6% Dow Jones Industrial – 33426, up 126 points or 0.4% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.69%, up 0.23% Not a Landaas & Company client yet? Click here to learn more. More information and insight from Money Talk Money Talk Videos Follow us on Twitter. Landaas newsletter subscribers return to the newslett...
Money Talk Podcast, Friday May 12, 2023
May 12 2023
Money Talk Podcast, Friday May 12, 2023
Landaas & Company newsletter  May edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Steve Giles (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (May 8-12, 2023) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major releases Tuesday No major releases Wednesday Inflation continued to slow in April, though it remained well above Federal Reserve Board targets. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that its Consumer Price Index rose 4.9% from April 2022, the 10th consecutive reduction in pace since exceeding a four-decade high of 9% last June. It was the lowest 12 rate since April 2021 but more than double the Fed long-range target of 2% inflation. Shelter costs contributed the most to the monthly rise, but their 0.4% gain from March was the slightest for the category in 15 months. A 3% rise in gasoline prices also boosted the index as well as a 4.4% jump in the cost of used vehicles. Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the second week in a row, reaching its highest point since November 2021. Still, data from the Labor Department showed the measure 31% below the 56-year average, suggesting continued reluctance by employers to let workers go. Total claims for benefits declined 3% in the latest week to just under 1.8 million, compared to 1.4 million the year before. Inflation on the wholesale level registered a 2.3% annual increase in April, the lowest since January 2021. The Producer Price Index was down from as high as 11.2% last June. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the index rose 0.2% from March, the first monthly gain in four months, mostly because of higher prices for services but also due to an increase in the cost of gasoline. The core rate of wholesale inflation, stripping out volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, also rose 0.2% for the month and was up 3.4% from April 2022. Friday The University of Michigan said consumer sentiment declined sharply from the end of April as both expectations and current assessments fell amid renewed concerns about the economy. Despite lack of empirical evidence, the university said, consumers are losing faith in the economy, exacerbated by political confrontations over the federal debt ceiling. The latest survey wiped out nearly half the gains made since consumer sentiment reached an all-time low last June. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK Nasdaq – 12285, up 49 points or 0.4% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4124, down 12 points or 0.3% Dow Jones Industrial – 33301, down 374 points or 1.1% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.46%, up 0.02% Not a Landaas & Company client yet? Click here to learn more. More information and insight from Money Talk Money Talk Videos Follow us on Twitter. Landaas newsletter subscribers return to the newsletter via e-mail
Money Talk Podcast, Friday May 5, 2023
May 5 2023
Money Talk Podcast, Friday May 5, 2023
Landaas & Company newsletter  May edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Tom Pappenfus Kendall Bauer (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (May 1-5, 2023) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday The manufacturing sector continued contracting in April for the sixth month in a row, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s index, based on surveys of purchasing managers, showed employment as the only component to grow from March. Although April’s contraction slowed from March, manufacturing’s business activity started dropping off last June. With declines in demand for manufactured goods, the ISM noted improved responsiveness from supply chains. The Commerce Department said construction spending rose in March for the first time in four months. Increased spending on manufacturing construction helped offset a 2% drop in residential expenditures. At a seasonally adjusted annual rate of more than $1.8 trillion, construction spending rose 3.8% from March 2022. Housing, which accounted for about 46% of total spending, was down 9.8% from the year before. Government outlays for construction rose 0.2% for the month and 15% over the year, including big increases for conservation and development. Tuesday The tight hiring market loosened a little in March as job openings declined and layoffs and discharges rose. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said openings shrank for the third month in a row to 9.6 million, the lowest in two years, though they remained above the pre-pandemic peak of 7.6 million. More employers let workers go in March, especially in construction and at hotels and restaurants. The number of workers quitting their jobs – a sign of employment confidence – also fell. Still, open jobs continued to far outnumber the 5.8 million unemployed job seekers in March. The Commerce Department said factory orders rose in March for the first time in four months, though a surge in demand for commercial aircraft tipped the scale. Excluding orders for transportation equipment, demand for manufactured goods fell for the fourth time in five months. Compared to March 2022, the dollar amount for total orders rose 2.4%, vs. a 1.4% gain excluding transportation. A proxy for business investments rose 3.2% from its year-earlier level but declined for the fourth time in five months. Wednesday The service sector of the U.S. economy kept growing in April, accelerating slightly from March, signaling a fourth consecutive expansion. The Institute for Supply Management said its index for the service sector showed growth for the 34th time in 35 months. An uptick in new orders and continued improvements in capacity and logistics boosted the index from March. Purchasing managers surveyed by the trade group cited ongoing concerns about inflation and economic slowdown. The ISM said the index suggested the overall economy was growing at a 0.7% annual rate. Thursday The U.S. trade deficit shrank 9.1% in March to $64.2 billion as the value of exports rose 2.1% while imports declined 0.3%. Leading the increase in exports were industrial products such as crude oil. Consumer goods, including cell phones, led imports lower. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the first-quarter deficit widened 27.6% from the year before as exports fell 8.7% while imports fell 1.6%. Trade deficits detract from gross domestic product, the key measure of economic growth. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in three weeks. The moving average was 35% below the all-time average. The Labor Department said fewer than 1.8 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down 2% from the week before but up 20% from about 1.5 million the year before. Two years prior, total claims exceeded 16 million. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity sank at an annual rate of 2.
Money Talk Podcast, Friday April 28, 2023
Apr 28 2023
Money Talk Podcast, Friday April 28, 2023
Landaas & Company newsletter  May edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Steve Giles Adam Baley (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (April 24-28) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major releases Tuesday Elevated mortgage rates and economic uncertainty continued to weaken demand for housing, resulting in lower gains in residential prices in February, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. The national index rose by 2% from the year before, the lowest 12-month increase since August 2012. The year-to-year gain has decelerated every month since hitting a record 20.8% in March 2022. The Commerce Department said the annual rate of new home sales rose 9.6% in March, though it was down more than 3% from the year-earlier pace and just below the level going into the COVID-19 pandemic. The supply of new houses for sale rose to the highest level since November, according to seasonally adjusted estimates. The cost of ownership continued to rise. The median sales price was up 3% from March 2022 to $449,800. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index declined in April with expectations falling below a level associated with impending recession for the 13th time in 14 months. The business research group said consumer attitudes toward current economic conditions picked up from March and expectations for inflation in the next year were unchanged, at around 6%. But fewer consumers reported plans to spend on big-ticket items such as cars, appliances and vacations. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Wednesday Manufacturing demand picked up in March, with durable goods orders rising 3.2% from February, the first increase in three months, according to the Commerce Department. Gains were led by a 78% rise in commercial aircraft orders. Excluding volatile transportation equipment, durable goods orders rose 0.4%. Since March 2022, all orders rose 3.3%, including 1.5% without transportation. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, declined 0.4% from February and were up 1.4% from March 2022. Thursday The U.S. economy grew at an annual pace of 1.1% in the first quarter, the slowest rate for the gross domestic product since back-to-back declines to start 2022. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported consumer spending rose at a 3.7% rate in the first three months of 2023, which was the fastest pace in seven quarters. Offsetting that were weaker spending by businesses and the eighth consecutive quarter of declines for housing. Adjusted for inflation, GDP was up 1.3% from the first quarter of 2022 and 5% above the peak prior to the pandemic. The Federal Reserve Board’s preferred measure of inflation rose 4.9%, the lowest in six quarters. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the second week in a row and the third time in four weeks. The average was 36% below the 56-year average, according to Labor Department data. In the latest week, 1.8 million Americans claimed jobless benefits, down 0.4% from the week before and up from 1.6 million the year before. The National Association of Realtors said its index of pending home sales fell 5.2% in March, the first decline in four months. The trade group’s index was down 23% from the year before. An economist for the association blamed low inventory for the latest setback, noting that there’s still enough demand for houses that about a third of March sales involved multiple offers and 28% sold for more than the asking price. The Realtors forecast a 9% drop in houses sold this year and projected a 15% rebound in 2024. Friday The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending rose less than 0.1% in March as increased expenditures on services such as housing and health care were offset by lower outlays for goods, including cars.
Money Talk Podcast, Friday April 14, 2023
Apr 14 2023
Money Talk Podcast, Friday April 14, 2023
Landaas & Company newsletter  April edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show KYLE TETTING ADAM BALEY DAVE SANDSTROM (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (April 10-14, 2023) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday No major announcements Tuesday No major announcements Wednesday Overall inflation kept slowing in March, reaching a 5% year-to-year rate, falling from as high as 9% in June. The Consumer Price Index, the broadest measure of inflation, remained above the Federal Reserve’s long-range target of 2%, but it was the lowest 12-month rate since May 2021. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said shelter costs accounted for the bulk of a 0.1% CPI increase from February. Grocery prices dropped for the first time since September 2020, and gasoline receded nearly 5%. Excluding prices for volatile food and energy products, the core CPI rose 0.4% from February. The core rate rose to 5.6% from the year before, up from 5.5% in February. Thursday Inflation on the wholesale level sank 0.5% in March with the Producer Price Index declining for the second time in four months. Lower prices on goods – particularly gasoline - accounted for two-thirds of the drop in the index, but services also cost less overall. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the index rose 2.7% from March 2022, the lowest 12-month gain since the beginning of 2021 and down from 11.6% in March 2022. The core Producer Price Index – which excluded volatile prices for energy, food and trade services – rose 0.1% from February, the lowest since May 2020. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the ninth time in 10 weeks, reaching nearly the highest level since November 2021. Claims averaged 240,000 in the most recent reading from the Labor Department, down 35% from the average level dating back to 1967. Altogether, 1.9 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the most recent week, down 1.7% from the week before but up from 1.7 million at the same time last year. Friday Lower gas prices helped fuel a 1% decline in retail sales in March, the fourth drop in five months. Of 13 categories, gas stations were among eight where sales fell in March. Lower prices meant gas stations took in less revenue than the month before. Other retailers with declining sales included home-and-garden centers, appliance stores and car dealerships. The Commerce Department reported total retail sales rose 2.9% from March 2022, with five categories reporting declines. Since February 2020, just before the COVID pandemic, retail sales have risen 31%; they’re up 13% after adjusting for inflation. The Federal Reserve said a return to more seasonal weather in March accounted for a 0.4% rise in industrial production, the third consecutive increase. Output from utilities rose 8.4% after an unseasonably warm February. Production for mining operations and manufacturers declined in March. Manufacturing shrank in particular in building supplies, business equipment and durable consumer goods. Overall industrial production rose at a 0.2% annual pace through the first three months of 2023. Capacity utilization, a measure of potential inflation, ticked above its long-term average for the first  time since December. Manufacturing and utilities were below their long-term levels while mining remained above normal. A preliminary April reading of consumer sentiment suggested Americans are marginally more optimistic about the future, though they still worry about inflation. The survey-based index from the University of Michigan was up 27% from its all-time low in June but about 3% below where it was a year ago. An economist with the study said respondents acknowledged a recent slowing in the rate of price increases, but they raised their expectations of inflation a year from now to 4.6%, up from 3.6% in March. Consumers’ longer-range inflation forecast stayed around 3%.
Money Talk Podcast, Friday April 7, 2023
Apr 7 2023
Money Talk Podcast, Friday April 7, 2023
Landaas & Company newsletter  April edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Adam Baley Dave Sandstrom (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (April 3-7, 2023) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday U.S. factories remained in a slump in March, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group said its manufacturing index suggested the sector contracted for the fifth month in a row, hitting its lowest reading since May 2020, amid the COVID pandemic lockdown. Based on past trends, the ISM said, the index suggested the gross domestic product sank in March at an annual rate of 0.9%. The Commerce Department said construction spending declined by 0.1% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate exceeding $1.8 billion. The pace was 5% ahead of the year before. Spending on residential construction, which accounts for nearly half of the total, fell by 0.6% from January and was down more than 5% from February 2022. Economists have blamed higher mortgage rates for dampening demand in housing. Tuesday Employers posted fewer job openings in February, but the labor market remained relatively tight. Postings dropped to 9.9 million, the lowest since May 2021, after reaching a record 12 million openings last March. Still, job openings outnumbered the 7 million just before the COVID pandemic and was 4 million more than the number of unemployed job seekers in February. Other signs of a stronger employment market: Layoffs and firings fell slightly, and slightly more people quit their jobs, a sign of worker confidence. The Commerce Department reported a 0.7% decline in manufacturing orders in February, the third setback in four months. Demand for aircraft led the declines. Excluding the volatile transportation category, factory orders fell 0.3% from January. Compared to February 2022, total orders were up 3% and up 3.1% excluding transportation. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, fell 0.1% for the month and were up 4.3% from the year before. Wednesday The U.S. services sector expanded in March, though at a slower rate, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s services index indicated the third month in a row of growth. Except for a setback in December, the service sector has expanded in 33 of the last 34 months. Based on surveys with purchasing managers, the index showed orders for services cooling while hiring conditions were mixed and supplier deliveries remained at the swiftest pace in 14 years. Overall, survey respondents expressed optimism about current business conditions. The U.S. trade deficit in February grew to its widest gap in four months as exports shrank more than imports. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the deficit expanded nearly 3% to $70.5 billion. A 2.7% decline in exports was led by lower demand abroad for U.S.-produced pharmaceuticals, industrial supplies and cars. Imports fell 1.5%, led by cell phones, cars and trucks. The trade deficit detracts from economic growth, as measured by gross domestic product. Thursday After the Labor Department updated calculation methods to better reflect seasonal fluctuations, the four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the first time in nine weeks. Average claims reached 237,750 in the week ended April 1, up 11% from the year before and down 35% from the 56-year average. Total claims fell less than 1% in the latest week to 1.9 million, up from 1.7 million at the same time last year. Friday U.S. employers continued to add jobs in March but at the slowest pace in more than two years. The jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 236,000 more jobs in March, down from the six-month average of 334,000 and the lowest since a decline in December 2020. The payroll count rose 2.2% above its level in February 2020, just before the COVID pandemic.
Money Talk Podcast, Friday March 31, 2023
Mar 31 2023
Money Talk Podcast, Friday March 31, 2023
Landaas & Company newsletter  April edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Tom Pappenfus Kendall Bauer (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Reuben Neese) Week in Review (March 27-31, 2023) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major releases Tuesday The annual gain in housing prices slipped to 3.8% in January, the 10th consecutive deceleration since cresting at a record 20.8% last March, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. An analyst with the longstanding report said higher mortgage rates and a weaker economy continued to soften housing market conditions and should remain as head winds to further lower prices. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose in March on slightly improved expectations. But the business research group said expectations remained below a level that often signals economic recession within the next year. Expectations have been below that level 12 of the last 13 months. The survey-based index found less confidence in current economic conditions. Consumer expectations for near-term inflation suggested a dampening effect on spending. Wednesday Three months of data suggests the housing market is turning a corner, according to the National Association of Realtors. The trade group’s index on pending home sales rose 0.8% in February for a third consecutive increase. The Realtors said because figures for home sales, pending sales and contracts for new construction have risen three months in a row, “the housing sector’s contraction is coming to an end.” The group cited recent improvements in mortgage rates, which it said especially helped affordable housing markets in the Midwest and South. Compared to the year before, pending sales were down 21%. Thursday The U.S. economy rose at an annual pace of 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to a final estimate of the gross domestic product. The growth rate was down from 2.7% in the previous estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, mostly because the annual rate of consumer spending grew by 1%, instead of the earlier estimate of 1.4%. Adjusted for inflation, the economy advanced 5.1% from its pre-COVID peak at the end of 2019. The Federal Reserve’s favorite measure of inflation showed a 5.7% increase from the fourth quarter of 2021, down from 6.3% in the third quarter and 6.6% in the second quarter. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in three weeks but was still 46% below the all-time rolling average for new claims. The Labor Department said 1.9 million Americans were claiming unemployment compensation in the latest week, down nearly 2% from the week before but up more than 7% from its level the year before, when special pandemic relief programs had expired. Friday By far the biggest driver of the U.S. economy, consumer spending rose 0.2% in February, slightly below the 0.3% gain in personal income. Adjusted for inflation, though, personal expenditures declined 0.1% in March, the third drop in four months, suggesting a slowing in the economy. The Bureau of Economic Analysis also reported the fifth consecutive increase in personal savings – both in amount and as a percent of disposable income. The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge showed a 5% increase from February 2022 – the lowest rate since September 2021. Inflation had risen to 7% in June, the highest in four decades. The Fed’s long-range target is 2%. Another sign of economic slowdown was the first setback in four months for consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan said its longstanding survey found consumers souring both on current conditions and future expectations. The sentiment index slipped to 62 from a reading of 67 in February. It stood at 59.4 the year before. A university economist said consumers are signaling they're expecting a recession. Consumer projections of near-term inflation were the lowest in nearly two ye...
Money Talk Podcast, March 24, 2023
Mar 24 2023
Money Talk Podcast, March 24, 2023
Landaas & Company newsletter  March edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Adam Baley (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (March 20-24, 2023) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday No major announcements Tuesday The annual rate of existing home sales rose 14.5% to nearly 4.6 million in February, the first increase after 12 consecutive declines. Still, the pace was 23% slower than the year before, as higher mortgage rates have stifled activity. The National Association of Realtors said improved sales in February were most noticeable where mortgage rates and home prices softened and jobs were growing. Inventories remained near record lows, with only 2.6 months supply. The median sales price was $363,000, down 0.2% from the year before, the first time the year-to-year price fell in nearly 11 years. Wednesday The Federal Open Market Committee, the policy-making panel of the Federal Reserve Board, announced another 0.25 percentage point raise in the short-term fed funds rate. It was the ninth increase in the rate in the last year, raising it from nearly nothing to more than 4.5% in order to cool the overall economy and control inflation. The Fed reaffirmed its commitment to a long-range inflation rate of 2%. The broadly based Consumer Price Index reached 6% in February, having dropped from more than 9% in June. A word cloud of the Fed's statement emphasizes words used by their frequency. Thursday Labor market conditions showed continued strength, with the four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims remaining 47% below the 56-year average. The indicator of employers’ reluctance to let workers go fell for the second week in a row, according to the Labor Department. Total claims dropped 3% from the week before to 1.9 million, which was up 4% from the same time the year before. The Commerce Department said new home sales rose 1% in February from the January pace but were 19% behind where they were the year before. A joint announcement with the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported an annual sales rate of 640,000 new houses, marking the 10th month in a row below the pre-pandemic mark of 690,000. The median sales price rose to $438,200, a 2.5% increase from February 2022. The year-to-year median price declined in January for the first time since August 2020. Friday Demand for manufactured items showed overall resilience in February despite the third decline in durable goods orders in four months. Drops in orders for commercial aircraft and automotive products brought down the monthly headline figure from the Commerce Department, as total orders fell 1%. However, orders were unchanged from January when excluding volatile demand for transportation equipment. Compared to the year before, overall orders rose 2% while orders excluding transportation rose 1.9%. Orders for core capital goods, a proxy for business investments, increased for the second month in a row and were up 4.3% from February 2022. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK Nasdaq – 11824, up 193 points or 1.7% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3963, up 47 points or 1.2% Dow Jones Industrial – 32231, up 369 points or  1.2% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.38%, down 0.02 point Not a Landaas & Company client yet? Click here to learn more. More information and insight from Money Talk Money Talk Videos Follow us on Twitter. Landaas newsletter subscribers return to the newsletter via e-mail
Money Talk Podcast, Friday March 17, 2023
Mar 17 2023
Money Talk Podcast, Friday March 17, 2023
Landaas & Company newsletter  March edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Steve Giles Kendall Bauer (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (March 13-17, 2023) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday No major announcements Tuesday The broadest measure of inflation continued narrowing in February but remained far above the 2% long-range target of the Federal Reserve. The Consumer Price Index rose 6% from February 2022, unadjusted for inflation. That was down from 6.4% in January and the lowest rate since September 2021. The annual rate decelerated for the eighth month in a row after exceeding 9% last June. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said shelter costs accounted for 70% of the monthly gain in the price index while higher food costs offset lower prices overall. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 5.5% from the year before, the lowest rate since December 2021. Wednesday Signs of moderation appeared in wholesale inflation numbers for February. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Producer Price Index sank 0.1% from January, the second contraction in three months. Prices for goods led the decline, but service costs also went down. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the core PPI rose 0.2% from January. Year to year, unadjusted for inflation, the headline PPI rose 4.6% in February, slowing for the eighth month in a row, down from 11.6% last March. The core PPI rose 4.4% from the year before, unchanged from January. U.S. consumer spending dipped in February, as retail sales fell 0.4%, according to the Commerce Department. That was down from a gain of 3.2% in January. Sales declined in eight of 13 retail categories, led by bars and restaurants, furniture stores, car dealers and gas stations. Adjusting for inflation, retail sales slipped by 0.8% in February, the third decline in four months. Economists watch retail sales for signs of consumer spending, which drives about two-thirds of the gross domestic product. Thursday The pace in housing starts rose 9.8% in February, though it was down 18% from the year earlier and 16% below the pace just before the pandemic. The Commerce Department and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported that multi-family residences continued to outpace single-family structures. The disparity was particularly noticeable in the pace of housing under construction, where single-family units have been dropping for eight months straight. Though building permits were down from February 2022, they were ahead of the pre-pandemic level and close to their level in early 2007. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the first time in four weeks, reaching 47% below the 56-year average. Data from the Labor Department continued to suggest a tight job market in which employers are reluctant to let workers go. Some 2 million individuals were claiming jobless benefits in the latest week, up 4% from the week before and up 2% from the year before that. Friday U.S. industrial output was unchanged in February after a slight gain in January, its first expansion in four months. Total production declined 0.2% from the year before. The Federal Reserve reported that manufacturing production increased slightly for the second month in a row but was down 1% from February 2022. Capacity utilization—considered a leading indicator of inflation—also was unchanged from January and remained below the 50-year average for the fourth month in a row. Both current economic conditions and expectations scored lower in a preliminary March reading of consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan said its longstanding survey showed consumers downgrading the economy for the first time in four months–mostly among respondents who were young with low levels of education and income. Expectations for inflation edged down from recent months,