Landaas & Company Money Talk Podcast

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Money Talk Podcast, Friday April 26, 2024
Apr 26 2024
Money Talk Podcast, Friday April 26, 2024
Landaas & Company newsletter  May edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Steve Giles Mike Hoelzl (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (April 22-26, 2024) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major releases Tuesday The Commerce Department said the annual rate of new home sales rose 8.8% in March to 693,000 houses, the fastest pace since July. The rate was up 8% from the year before and on par with the level heading into the COVID-19 pandemic. The supply of new houses for sale stayed in the ballpark of eight months’ worth of houses at the current sales rate. The median sales price dipped 1.9% from March 2023 to $430,700. Wednesday Manufacturing demand picked up in March, with durable goods orders rising 2.6% from February, the second consecutive monthly increase, according to the Commerce Department. Gains were led by contracts for commercial aircraft and automobiles. Excluding volatile transportation equipment, durable goods orders rose 0.2%. Since March 2023, all orders rose 0.3%; they were up 1.3% excluding transportation. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, jumped 6% in March but were down 0.9% from March 2023. Thursday The U.S. economy grew at an annual pace of 1.6% in the first quarter, the slowest rate for the gross domestic product since back-to-back declines to start 2022. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported consumer spending rose at a 2.5% rate in the first three months of 2024, down from 3.7% in the fourth quarter, when the overall economy grew at a 3.4% annual rate. Adjusted for inflation, GDP was up 3% from the first quarter of 2023. And while economic slowdown has been an aim of the Federal Reserve Board’s efforts to cool inflation, the annual pace of price increases, according to the Fed’s  preferred measure, rose to 3.4% in the first quarter from 1.8% in the fourth. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell after two weeks of no change. The average was 42% lower than the 57-year average, according to Labor Department data. In the latest week, just under 1.9 million Americans claimed jobless benefits, down 4% from the week before and up 3% from the same time last year. An indication of employers’ willingness to lose workers, the jobless claims continued to suggest a tight labor market. The National Association of Realtors said its index of pending home sales rose 3.4% in March. The trade group’s index was up 0.1% from the year before, prompting an economist for the association to say that sales have been hovering near 30-year lows because of higher mortgage rates and insufficient inventory. Suggesting new construction would help increase supply, the group forecast a 9% rise in sales for 2024 followed by 13% growth in 2025. A year ago, the Realtors projected 2023 sales would be 10% higher than where they eventually ended, at 4.46 million houses. The year-ago forecast called for a 15% increase in 2024. Friday The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending rose 0.8% in March, outpacing a 0.5% gain in personal income. Accounting for about two-thirds of economic activity, the spending was another sign of continued economic growth. Meantime, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge showed the pace in price increases remained above the long-term target of 2%. The personal consumption expenditures index rose 2.7% from March 2023, up from 2.5% in February, though down from a four-decade high of 7.1% in mid-2022. Often a pre-cursor to spending, consumer sentiment, declined insignificantly in April, down 2.8% from March but up 21% from the year before. The University of Michigan said its longstanding survey showed consumers at a plateau, putting expectations on pause pending the November presidential election. Researchers said geopolitical conflicts weren’t weighing on consumers and their expectations for inflation ticked up slightly.
Money Talk Podcast, Friday April 19, 2024
Apr 19 2024
Money Talk Podcast, Friday April 19, 2024
Landaas & Company newsletter  April edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Adam Baley Mike Hoelzl (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (April 15-19, 2024) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports No major announcements Monday In a further sign of economic resilience, consumers continued spending at stores in March with retail sales advancing 0.7% from February. The Commerce Department reported that 8 of 13 major categories had sales increases in March, including a 2.7% gain for online retailers and a 2.1% rise for gas stations, where sales increased in part because of higher prices. Sales at car dealers declined 1.1%. Furniture stores, appliance centers and sporting goods retailers also suffered setbacks. Sales at bars and restaurants increased by 0.4%, suggesting consumers remain comfortable spending. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales rose 0.3%, a second consecutive gain. Tuesday The U.S. housing market continued to suggest weakness in March as the pace for both housing starts and building permits stayed below pre-pandemic levels. Figures from the Commerce Department showed new construction about 25% below its pace in mid-2022. The pace of housing permits, an indicator of commitments to future homebuilding, also continued to hover lower following interest rate boosts by the Federal Reserve two years ago. But both permits and starts remained at levels on par with 2007, before the Great Recession. Meantime, data showed that the rate of houses under construction stayed near record highs, with completions around their fastest pace in 17 years. Increased automotive manufacturing in March helped boost U.S. industrial production by 0.4% in March. The Federal Reserve reported that industrial output rose at the same pace as in February and was unchanged from the year before. Through the first quarter of 2024, industrial production declined at a 1.8% annual rate led by a 12% drop in mining output. The same report showed the capacity utilization rate, a measure of potential inflation pressure, rising for the second month in a row, though it stayed below the long-time average. Wednesday No major announcements Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims was unchanged for the second week in a row, staying 41% under the long-term average, dating to 1967. The measure of employers’ reluctance to let workers go continued to indicate a tight labor market. According to Labor Department data, total jobless claims fell to 1.9 million in the latest week, down less than 1% from the week before, though up nearly 7% from the year before. The annual pace of existing home sales sank 4.3% in March, its first setback in four months, dropping 3.7% behind its year-ago rate. The National Association of Realtors said sales have been stagnating because of high interest rates and ongoing low supplies of inventory. The trade group said the median sales price rose 4.8% from the March 2023 to $393,500, the ninth consecutive increase. The Conference Board reported that its index of leading economic indicators declined 0.3% in March, after a slight gain in February. The business research group said the six-month movement of its index contracted at a slower pace. It suggested the U.S. economic outlook was “fragile – even if not recessionary.” Among the challenges ahead, according to the group, are rising consumer debt, higher interest rates and stubbornly elevated inflation rates. Friday No major announcements MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK Nasdaq – 15282, down 893 points or 5.5% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4967, down 156 points or 3.0% Dow Jones Industrial – 37986, up 3 points or 0.0% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.62%, up 0.12 point Not a Landaas & Company client yet? Click here to learn more. More information and insight from Money Talk Money Talk Videos Follow us on Twitter.
Money Talk Podcast, Friday April 12, 2024
Apr 12 2024
Money Talk Podcast, Friday April 12, 2024
Landaas & Company newsletter  April edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Mike Hoelzl (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (April 8-12, 2024) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major announcements Tuesday No major announcements Wednesday Overall inflation continued to stall in March, staying above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target. The Consumer Price Index, the broadest measure of inflation, rose to a 3.5% year-to-year rate, bouncing higher for the second month in a row after falling from as high as 9.1% in June 2022. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said increased costs for shelter, gasoline and car insurance contributed to faster inflation, keeping it above the Fed’s long-range target of 2%. A core measure of CPI, which excluded volatile food and energy prices, stayed at a year-to-year rate of 3.8% for the second month in a row. Thursday Inflation on the wholesale level rose in March with the Producer Price Index gaining 0.2%, only one-third of the advance in February. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the index rose 2.1% from March 2023, the fastest 12-month pace in 11 months. Costs for services increased while goods prices declined overall, led by gasoline. The core Producer Price Index – excluding volatile prices for energy, food and trade services – rose 0.2% from February and was up 2.8% from the year before, on par with the yearly rate since May. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims dipped for the second time in three weeks, reaching 42% below the long-term average since 1967. The measure of employers’ reluctance to let workers go was 3% above its level just before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to data from the Labor Department. Altogether, just under 2 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the most recent week, down 3.6% from the week before but up 5% from the same time last year. Friday A preliminary April reading of consumer sentiment shows Americans have registered little change since January. The survey-based index from the University of Michigan has been midway between an all-time low in mid-2022 and the optimism level just before the pandemic four years ago. Surveys showed a slight increase in expectations for inflation, which the university said might suggest some frustration with an apparent stalling in the slowdown of inflation. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK Nasdaq – 16175, down 73 points or 0.5% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5123, down 81 points or 1.6% Dow Jones Industrial – 37984, down 920 points or 2.4% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.50%, up 0.12 point Not a Landaas & Company client yet? Click here to learn more. More information and insight from Money Talk Money Talk Videos Follow us on Twitter. Landaas newsletter subscribers return to the newsletter via e-mail
Money Talk Podcast, Friday April 5, 2024
Apr 5 2024
Money Talk Podcast, Friday April 5, 2024
Landaas & Company newsletter  April edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Adam Baley Steve Giles (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (April 1-5, 2024) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday U.S. factories began emerging from a slump in March, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group said its manufacturing index suggested the sector expanded for the first time since September 2022 with increased demand and stronger output. The ISM said the turnaround was in an early stage and uneven, with 30% of the firms surveyed still contracting, vs. 40% in February. Based on past trends, the ISM said, the index suggested the gross domestic product was growing at a 2.2% annual rate. The Commerce Department said construction spending declined by 0.3% in February, the second monthly setback after one year of increases. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of spending neared $2.1 trillion. Residential construction spending, which makes up about 44% of the total, rose 0.7% from January despite a drop in multi-family housing. Government spending, which accounts for 23% of the total, declined 1.2%. Since February 2023, total expenditures rose 10.7% with residential up 6.5% and manufacturing up 32%. Tuesday Employers posted marginally more job openings in February, continuing to reflect a labor market in which demand outpaces supply. Postings were just under 8.8 million, down from a record 12.2 million nearly two years ago and still above the 7 million level just before the COVID pandemic. Other signs of a stronger employment market: hirings, separations – including layoffs, firings and voluntary quits – changed little from January. The Commerce Department reported a 1.4% gain in manufacturing orders in February, the first advance in three months. Demand for commercial aircraft led the increase. Excluding the volatile transportation category, factory orders rose 1.1% from January. Compared to February 2023, total orders were up 1% and up 1.4% excluding transportation. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.7% for the month and were up 1.4% from the year before. Wednesday The U.S. services sector expanded in March, though at a slower rate, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s services index indicated the 15th month in a row of growth. Based on surveys with purchasing managers, the index showed orders for services cooling while hiring contracted. Logistics and supply chains continued to improve following disruptions in the aftermath of the pandemic. Thursday The U.S. trade deficit grew in February for the third month in a row and to its widest gap in 10 months. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the deficit expanded by 1.9% from January to $68.9 billion. The value of exports rose by 2.3%, led by crude oil, aircraft, soybeans and autos. Imports increased by 2.2%, led by cell phones, travel services, pharmaceuticals and autos. Since February 2023, the gap widened by 2.8% with exports growing 1.8% and imports rising 0.8%. The trade deficit detracts from economic growth, as measured by gross domestic product. The Labor Department reported that the four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the third time in four weeks. Average claims remained 42% below the 57-year average, continuing to reflect employer reluctance to let workers go in an historically tight labor market. Total claims were little changed from the week before at 2 million, which was 7% higher than at the same time last year. Friday U.S. employers continued to add jobs in March – for the 39th month in a row and at a swifter pace. The jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 303,000 more jobs than February, up from the six-month average of 231,000. The leisure and hospitality industry finally recovered to its February 2020 pre-pandemic employment level.
Money Talk Podcast, Friday March 29, 2024
Mar 29 2024
Money Talk Podcast, Friday March 29, 2024
Landaas & Company newsletter  April edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom Tom Pappenfus (with Jason Scuglilk, Joel Dresang) Week in Review (March 25-29) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday The annual rate of new home sales declined slightly in February but stayed ahead of the year-ago pace, the Commerce Department reported. The sales rate of 662,000 new houses was below the pre-COVID pace for the seventh month in a row. Inventories rose marginally, and the median sales price - $400,500 – dropped almost 8% from February 2023. Tuesday Demand for long-lasting manufactured goods rose in February for the first time in three months, according to the Commerce Department. Orders for durable goods were up 1.4% from January and 1.8% ahead of orders in February 2023. Excluding volatile transportation orders, demand increased 0.5% from January and was up 3.2% from the year before. Orders for core capital goods, a proxy for business investments, also advanced. The annual gain in housing prices accelerated to 6% in January, the seventh consecutive increase. According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index, broad-based price gains continued despite the head winds of higher borrowing costs. The year-to-year increase in January was the highest since November 2022. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index was essentially unchanged in March, with survey respondents improving their views of current conditions while taking a dimmer view of the future. The business research group offered some mixed signals, reporting that people continued to fret over higher prices while their expectations for inflation remained near four-year lows. Consumers’ expectations for recession continued to weaken at the same time an index reading associated with recession worsened. Wednesday No significant releases Thursday The U.S. economy rose at an annual pace of 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to a final estimate of the gross domestic product. The growth rate was up from 3.2% in the previous estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, mostly because the annual rate of consumer spending grew by 3.3%, instead of the earlier estimate of 3%. Economic growth also rose faster from more commercial investments than initially estimated. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the first time in three weeks to reach 42% below the 57-year average. The indicator from the Labor Department suggested employers remained reluctant to let workers go. The same report showed 2 million Americans were claiming unemployment compensation in the latest week, down nearly 3% from the week before and up 7% from its level the year before. The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index rose nearly 2% in February, though it was down 7% from the year earlier. The trade group said sales contracts in the Northeast and West fell for the month because housing prices were rising faster than incomes. Nationwide, the group predicted increasing inventory because of more newly built structures on the market and because of pent-up desires by many homeowners to move. The University of Michigan’s longstanding measure of consumer sentiment rose marginally in March, staying about midway between its pre-pandemic level and its record low in 2022. The survey-based index suggested consumers were feeling better about their personal finances because of increased confidence that inflation was easing. The university said it expected sentiment to be on hold until later in the election season. Friday By far the biggest driver of the U.S. economy, consumer spending, rose 0.8% in February, the biggest jump in 13 months. Spending outpaced the 0.3% gain in personal income for February, resulting in a drop in the personal saving rate to 3.6% of disposable income from 4.1% in January. The Bureau of Economic Analysis also reported that the Fede...
Money Talk Podcast, Friday March 22, 2024
Mar 22 2024
Money Talk Podcast, Friday March 22, 2024
Landaas & Company newsletter  March edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Kendall Bauer (with Jason Scuglik, Joel Dresang) Week in Review (March 18-22, 2024) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major announcements Tuesday The pace of housing starts rose 11% in February, and it was up 6% from the year before, the Commerce Department and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported. Permits for new housing also increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, especially for single-family residences. Amid longstanding low inventories of housing units, the rate at which new houses are being completed is finally reaching levels not seen since before the Great Recession. Also, housing under construction has been hovering at record paces, according to data going back to 1970. Wednesday No major announcements Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the second week in a row but stayed 42% below the 57-year average, according to new data from the Labor Department. The moving average, an indicator of employers’ reluctance to let workers go, continued to suggest strength in the labor market. Total claims rose 0.2% from the week before to 1.8 million, which was up 8% from the same time in 2023. The annual rate of existing home sales rose 9.5% to nearly 4.4 million in February, which was still 3% slower than the year before. The National Association of Realtors said demand for housing continued to be strong while inventory improved nearly 6% from January. Still, supply remained historically record low, with 2.9 months’ worth of houses available at February’s sales rate. The median sales price was $384,500, up almost 6% from the year before, the eight increase in a row. The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators rose 0.1% in February, its first gain in two years, led by increases in factory hours, stock prices and residential construction. The business research group said its index declined 2.6% since August, an improvement from a 3.8% decline in the previous six months. The group also warned that higher interest rates and rising consumer debt posed threats to continued personal spending, which drives about two-thirds of U.S. economic growth. Friday No major announcements MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK Nasdaq – 16429, up 456 points or 2.9% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5234, up 117 points or 2.3% Dow Jones Industrial – 39475, up 761 points or 2.0% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.22%, down 0.09 point Not a Landaas & Company client yet? Click here to learn more. More information and insight from Money Talk Money Talk Videos Follow us on Twitter. Landaas newsletter subscribers return to the newsletter via e-mail
Money Talk Podcast, Friday March 15, 2024
Mar 15 2024
Money Talk Podcast, Friday March 15, 2024
Landaas & Company newsletter  March edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom Kendall Bauer (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (March 11-15, 2024) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday No major announcements Tuesday The broadest measure of inflation nudged up narrowly in February, reinforcing sentiment that it’s too soon for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index rose 3.2% from February 2023, unadjusted for inflation. That was up from 3.1% in January but down from a four-decade high of 9.1% in 2022. Higher prices for gasoline and shelter accounted for 60% of the CPI’s one-month gain of 0.4%, which was the highest since September. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy costs, was up 3.8% from the year before, the smallest 12-month rise in almost three years. Wednesday No major announcements Thursday Wholesale inflation ticked up in February, led by higher energy prices. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Producer Price Index rose 0.6% from January, the largest advance since August. Excluding volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, the core PPI rose 0.4%, down from a 0.6% increase in January. Year to year, the headline PPI rose 1.6% in February, the highest rate in five months. The Commerce Department said retail sales gained 0.6% in February, only the second gain in five months, but another sign that consumers are keeping the economy growing. Car dealers, gas stations, home-and-garden centers and appliance stores led the list of retailers reviving sales from a 1.1% decline in January. The sales represent most of the consumer spending that accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales advanced in February for the first time in five months. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the fourth week in a row, dipping 43% below the 57-year average. Data from the Labor Department continued to suggest a tight job market in which employers are reluctant to let workers go. Some 2.1 million individuals were receiving jobless benefits in the latest week, up 1% from the week before and up 7.2% from the year before. Friday U.S. industrial production rose 0.1% in February after weather-related declines January. The gain was the first in three months, according to the Federal Reserve. Compared to the year before, output was down 0.2%. Manufacturing production advanced 0.8% from January and was down 0.7% from February 2023. Capacity utilization, considered a leading indicator of inflation, remained at 78.3% in February, below the long-term average for the 10th month in a row. The University of Michigan said consumer sentiment essentially was on hold pending the November election. The preliminary measure of expectations in March was little changed from February, putting it midway between historic lows during the inflation peaks of 2022 and the level of sentiment just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Economists rely on sentiment as an indicator of consumers’ appetite for spending. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK Nasdaq – 15973, down 112 points or 0.7% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5117, down 7 points or 0.1% Dow Jones Industrial – 38715, down 8 points or 0.0% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.30%, up 0.22 point Not a Landaas & Company client yet? Click here to learn more. More information and insight from Money Talk Money Talk Videos Follow us on Twitter. Landaas newsletter subscribers return to the newsletter via e-mail
Money Talk Podcast, Friday March 8, 2024
Mar 8 2024
Money Talk Podcast, Friday March 8, 2024
Landaas & Company newsletter  March edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Adam Baley (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (March 4-8, 2024) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday No major releases Tuesday A drop in commercial aircraft demand sent U.S. factory orders lower in January for the third time in four months. The Commerce Department said orders overall declined 3.6% from December and were 1.6% below their level the year before. Excluding volatile orders for transportation equipment, demand fell 0.8% both for the month and compared with January 2023. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.9% for the month and were up 2.5% from the year before. The service sector of the U.S. economy expanded in February for the 14th month in a row, though at a slightly slower pace. The Institute for Supply Management said faster supplier deliveries and a contraction in hiring slowed businesses in February. The ISM’s survey of supply managers found overall satisfaction in the state of business conditions, although concerns linger over inflation, the labor market and geopolitical conflicts. Wednesday U.S. employers posted 8.9 million job openings in January, down marginally from December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Demand for workers continued to outstrip supply. Openings eclipsed 12 million in March 2022 and have trended lower ever since. They were below 7 million just prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Measures of hiring and dismissals showed little change, but voluntary quitting – an indication of worker confidence – was below pre-COVID levels for the third month in a row. Thursday The Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity rose at an annual pace of 3.2% in the fourth quarter, unchanged from an earlier estimate. The rate resulted from the annual pace of output rising 3.5% in the last four months of the year while hours worked rose at a 0.3% pace. Productivity rose 2.6% over the last four quarters. Average annual productivity rose 1.3% for 2023, compared to an average 2.1% since 1948. The U.S. trade deficit widened by 5.1% to $67.4 billion in January, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. During the month, exports rose by 0.1%, led by autos and consumer goods. Imports rose by 1.1%, led by cars, crude oil and cell phones. Compared to January 2023, the trade gap narrowed by 4.1% as exports declined 0.4% and imports fell 1.2%. Economists consider trade deficits a detraction from overall economic growth. The Labor Department reported the four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims dropped for the third week in a row. It remained 42% below its average since 1967 and was 2% above its level just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Total claims for the latest week declined marginally from the week before to 2.1 million. That was 10.5% above the mark from the year before. The Federal Reserve said credit card debt rose at an annual pace of 7.6% in January, up from 2.4% in December, but a slowdown from the third and fourth quarters. The overall consumer debt outstanding, including student loans and car financing, increased at a 4.7% annualized rate. Measured year to year, credit card debt rose less than 2% from January 2023. Such debt has gone up every month but one in nearly three years. Sustained use of credit cards suggests consumers continued spending at higher levels despite Fed interest rate increases aimed at weakening demand to help lower inflation. Friday Employers added 275,000 jobs in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported, and the unemployment rate edged up to 3.9%, its highest level in three years. The bureau’s monthly jobs report, combining payroll data and household surveys, showed the pace of hiring rise above the 12-month average, with particular strength in health care, construction and bars and restaurants.