The Dividend Mailbox

Greg Denewiler

We want to stuff your mailbox with dividends! Our goal is to show you the power of dividend growth investing, and for each year's check to be larger than the last. We analyze specific companies and look at the mindset this strategy requires to be successful long-term. Come explore this not-so-boring world and watch your portfolio's value compound.

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Episodes

With New Leadership, is Starbucks a Solid Dividend Candidate?
Sep 18 2024
With New Leadership, is Starbucks a Solid Dividend Candidate?
More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter! When a company’s stock price has struggled for years, a change in management may be just what it needs to get back on track. Even still, new management can’t fix everything.  Historically, Starbucks has been an impressive growth story, generating phenomenal wealth for investors. Despite its profitability and strong cash flows, recent challenges have raised questions about whether those days are long gone. In this episode, Greg analyzes the Starbucks story as a potential dividend growth candidate and what the future may hold. He discusses the implications of Starbucks' new CEO (who previously turned around Chipotle), and the company's strategy to address operational inefficiencies. Later, Greg transitions to an update on Chevron which has been part of the model portfolio since 2010. Although higher dividend yields can signal problems for a company, Chevron’s resilience makes it worth considering adding to the position.  00:00 Introduction to Dividend Mailbox00:47 Starbucks: A Familiar Name with a Compelling Story03:33 Starbucks' Financial Performance and Challenges05:22 Evaluating Starbucks as a Dividend Growth Investment11:33 Starbucks' Debt and Cash Flow Analysis27:10 Conclusion on Starbucks and Transition to Chevron28:04 Chevron: A Reliable Dividend Growth Story29:41 Chevron's Financial Health and Future Prospects35:41 Final Thoughts and Wrap-UpSend us a textNotes & Resources:DCM Investment Reports & ModelsIf you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at ethan@growmydollar.com.Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - TwitterIf you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review
Building Wealth Over 40 Years: Investing Insights With Industry Veteran Kent Hughes
Aug 15 2024
Building Wealth Over 40 Years: Investing Insights With Industry Veteran Kent Hughes
More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!  In our August episode, Greg interviews longtime friend and fellow financial advisor Kent Hughes. Kent has worked in the industry for over 40 years, focusing his investment strategy on quality and market indices. During his career as an advisor, Kent's expertise has earned him placement on both the Forbes and Barron's Top Wealth Advisor lists.  Greg and Kent begin the episode by discussing the evolution of the investment industry over the past four decades, the impact of technological advances on market information, and investor behavior. The duo also delves into market expectations, secular bull markets, and the potential effects of AI on investing.   Following their conversation, Greg mentions that he was able to speak with the investor relations department at Snap-on, and concludes the episode by providing answers to the questions we had about the company from the previous episode.    Timestamps:00:00 Introduction to The Dividend Mailbox 00:45 Interview with Kent Hughes: A Journey Through the Financial Industry 03:33 Changes in the Financial Industry Over 40 Years 05:35 Lessons Learned and Biggest Mistakes 08:13 Impact of AI and Investor Expectations 12:29 Economic Outlook and Market Predictions 17:21 Commercial Real Estate Concerns 19:25 Forecasting Future Returns 25:50 Investment Strategies and Dividend Growth 32:36 The Importance of Dividend Growth 34:07 Historical Performance and Market Trends 36:27 Understanding Compounding and Market Sentiment 39:37 Favorite Investment Books and Influential Figures 43:40 International Investing Considerations 49:20 The Competitive Advantage of Patience 55:43 Snap-on: A Potential Investment Opportunity 01:00:53 Closing Thoughts and Key Takeaways Send us a textNotes & Resources:DCM Investment Reports & ModelsIf you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at ethan@growmydollar.com.Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - TwitterIf you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review
Cash (Flow) Is King
Apr 17 2024
Cash (Flow) Is King
More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter! Between immediate information on the Internet and minute-by-minute stock quotes at your fingertips, investors appear to be more infatuated with price appreciation than anything else. In contrast, prior to the 1990s, investors primarily focused on earning returns through a cash flow of dividends. Even though there has undoubtedly been a shift from cash-focused investing to a market fixated on price performance, cash flows play a critical role in assessing company valuation.In this episode, Greg examines wisdom from "The Ownership Dividend: The Coming Paradigm Shift in the US Stock Market." Through several excerpts, he exposes how important dividends are to the structure of the market, investor goals, and company valuation. In the second half of the episode, Greg looks at Williams-Sonoma which has appreciated 200% since we first bought it two years ago. He analyzes whether its recent outperformance should warrant selling it to lock in gains.EDIT: In the episode, Greg comments that our Williams Sonoma position has appreciated 300%, however, it has only appreciated 200%. The stock prices were given, so simple calculations could identify this error. Send us a textNotes & Resources:DCM Investment Reports & ModelsIf you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at ethan@growmydollar.com.Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - TwitterIf you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review
Are Dysfunctional Dividends Hiding In Your Portfolio?
Dec 21 2023
Are Dysfunctional Dividends Hiding In Your Portfolio?
More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter! Check out our Union Pacific Investment ReportDo you feel confident that the dividends in your portfolio are healthy? What techniques can you use to get a clearer picture of a company's long-term dividend growth prospects? This month, Greg examines a simple 3 decision model from Aswath Damodaran to determine how companies create value for shareholders, and what it means for you as a dividend growth investor. He draws the line between companies that pay a healthy dividend and companies that are in a dysfunctional dividend mindset. As part of that, Greg gives you two simple models to employ when you're considering a company's dividend-paying capability. Later he takes a moment to discuss some of the wisdom of the late Charlie Munger.  Models used in today's Episode:ROIC Model - (Excel download) Excess Cash Flow Model - (Excel download)DCM Investment Reports & Models - (Website)Happy Holidays from The Dividend Mailbox!Send us a textNotes & Resources:DCM Investment Reports & ModelsIf you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at ethan@growmydollar.com.Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - TwitterIf you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review
UNP Deep Dive: A Growing Dividend Is Just Around the Bend
Oct 18 2023
UNP Deep Dive: A Growing Dividend Is Just Around the Bend
More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!To most investors, big returns are associated with exciting stories or cutting-edge technology. Since everyone is in the market to make as much money as possible, “boring” companies can be easily dismissed without much second thought. That line of thinking is straightforward enough but it may be misguided. Truthfully, some of the better-performing companies out there are actually pretty boring. When it comes to achieving attractive returns, it is not what a company does that is important, it is how well they do it. In this episode, Greg embarks on a deep dive into Union Pacific Railroad ($UNP) and the broader railroad industry. He makes the case that railroads are extremely predictable, well run, and have provided investors with decades of market-beating returns. Railroads are probably not your first idea for building wealth, but these companies are cashflow-compounding machines. This episode is a little bit deeper than we have gone in the past, but it makes for a compelling story. Send us a textNotes & Resources:DCM Investment Reports & ModelsIf you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at ethan@growmydollar.com.Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - TwitterIf you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review
Are You an Intelligent Investor or a Smart Investor?
Sep 20 2023
Are You an Intelligent Investor or a Smart Investor?
More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!Is there a difference between being intelligent and being smart? Most people would think of those concepts as one and the same. Although it may be abstract, these are two separate schools of thought entirely. You may go so far as to characterize intelligence as left-brain thinking, and smarts as right-brain reasoning. How does that apply to investing? If you’ve ever regretted an investment decision before, it may have been due to an overreliance on numbers, data, or rules, and not enough on vision.For our 27th episode, Greg takes a step back and examines a recent blog post from Morgan Housel. He starts out by contrasting intelligence vs. smarts, then uses several examples to show how it relates to investors. He applies this mindset to everything from analyzing America’s deficit problems, to honestly reflecting on his own thought process when he sold Intel ($INTC) several months ago. Greg wraps up the episode by introducing a new stock idea, United Pacific ($UNP), and sets the stage for a deeper dive next month.Links referenced in today’s episode are below:Morgan Housel's blog -> Intelligent vs. SmartGreg's newsletter on America's Debt and Deficits -> Debt, Denial, & Illusions: America Has a Spending ProblemSend us a textNotes & Resources:DCM Investment Reports & ModelsIf you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at ethan@growmydollar.com.Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - TwitterIf you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review
Telecom & Tobacco: Analyzing the Legal Liability That Could Limit Returns
Jul 18 2023
Telecom & Tobacco: Analyzing the Legal Liability That Could Limit Returns
More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!Even though dividend growth stocks typically have a high degree of predictability, that doesn’t mean you can’t end up with surprises. Outside dividend cuts, some of the most significant surprises can come from legal liability - often arising from the distant past. Companies routinely face challenges in the courtroom and are well-equipped to handle their cases, but occasionally they are forced to cut a check with a lot of zeros. The problem for investors is that there is no quantifiable way to know what legal liabilities might be lingering out there. This episode is packed with specific companies as Greg dives into two stocks from the tobacco industry and two from the telecom sector. He examines the legal history of British-American Tabacco ($BTI) and Altria ($MO), alongside the potential future liability of AT&T ($T) and Verizon ($VZ). In doing so, he also breaks down their performance as companies and gives you a snapshot of how we analyze dividend growth candidates. Send us a textNotes & Resources:DCM Investment Reports & ModelsIf you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at ethan@growmydollar.com.Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - TwitterIf you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review
Discipline Is the Cornerstone of Dividend Growth Investing
Jun 21 2023
Discipline Is the Cornerstone of Dividend Growth Investing
More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!If you want to be a successful long-term investor, you must know your discipline and be willing to stick to it. All investing strategies come in and out of favor in the marketplace and they ebb and flow over time. In 2022, we saw high growth and tech companies underperform, while dividend growth companies held up well. So far in 2023, we’re seeing the opposite. However, switching your investment strategy based on short-term performance is almost always ill-advised. Of course, having discipline is easier said than done, but gaining perspective can help.  In this month’s episode, Greg zeros in on how discipline and dividend growth are one and the same. He breaks down some of the largest wealth creators in the market and examines what exactly is driving the current market rally. He discusses the importance of knowing why your portfolio is performing the way it is but stresses that short-term performance is unimportant for the bigger picture. Later, he looks at a few dividend growth ETFs and finishes the episode with a listener’s question about investing from abroad.  Send us a textNotes & Resources:DCM Investment Reports & ModelsIf you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at ethan@growmydollar.com.Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - TwitterIf you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review
Downfalls of a Lottery Ticket Mindset with Jeff Weniger — Head of Equity Strategy at WisdomTree
Apr 24 2023
Downfalls of a Lottery Ticket Mindset with Jeff Weniger — Head of Equity Strategy at WisdomTree
More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!In this month’s episode, Greg sits down with Jeff Weniger, Head of Equity Strategy at WisdomTree. For the unfamiliar, WisdomTree is a fund and ETF manager with roughly $90 billion in assets under management. What makes WisdomTree’s funds special is that most of them focus on dividend and dividend growth strategies. One of their largest funds is the US Quality Dividend Growth Fund ($DGRW), which incidentally is our largest core position and is one we have mentioned over past episodes. Among their other funds, $DGRW is exceptional for gaining exposure to quality dividend growth.  Jeff has spent decades in the finance world and specializes in the management and creation of strategy-focused ETFs. Prior to joining WisdomTree, he was Director & Senior Strategist at BMO, working directly with the CIO of the firm from 2006 to 2017. He is a CFA charterholder, and earned his MBA from Notre Dame.  As head WisdomTree’s equity strategy, Jeff has invaluable experience in equity markets and provides unique perspectives for long-term investors and the macro environment. During Greg and Jeff’s discussion, they cover the history of dividends, the difference between US and overseas dividend culture, why “boring” actually performs well, and why having a lottery ticket mindset can lead to mistakes. The interview is full of topics that the dividend investor should keep in mind and ultimately serves as a powerful reminder of why dividend growth investing is a long-term strategy that works.EDIT: This episode was originally uploaded with an hour of silence that followed the episode. The current audio file has been edited and corrected. Send us a textNotes & Resources:DCM Investment Reports & ModelsIf you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at ethan@growmydollar.com.Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - TwitterIf you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review
Dividend Cuts Don’t Have to Cut Your Income
Mar 22 2023
Dividend Cuts Don’t Have to Cut Your Income
More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!Most of the time, using the screening criteria that are characteristic of good dividend growth companies weeds out the bad apples. When you buy companies that have low debt, attractive yield, high return on invested capital, etc., it can feel like you’ll be cashing those dividends forever. However, companies inevitably run into challenges, and you might get a surprise. If you invest long enough, you’ll eventually find yourself with a dividend that’s been cut and a once attractive investment that has soured. The good news is if your portfolio is structured properly, not even dividend cuts get in the way of growing your income every year.On another note, one factor that greatly influences the security of a dividend is debt. Given everything that has happened in the market recently, and with a liquidity crisis in the banking sector, debt has become a hot topic. It is extremely important to understand how debt functions for a company, especially in an environment with rising interest rates.In this month’s episode, Greg takes you on a deep dive into Intel ($INTC). He looks at why we originally bought it, the problems they ran into, and why they recently cut their dividend. He even lays out why it may do better in a couple of years. Later, He uses a couple of different examples to show how debt can be good, bad, or indifferent.Send us a textNotes & Resources:DCM Investment Reports & ModelsIf you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at ethan@growmydollar.com.Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - TwitterIf you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review
Sometimes Value Outweighs Sustainable Growth
Feb 22 2023
Sometimes Value Outweighs Sustainable Growth
More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!When the goal is to compound wealth for decades, there is a significant difference between dividend growth and sustainable dividend growth. While the difference is obvious enough, they are two distinctly different investments and should be treated as such. Although we believe that sustainable dividend growth is ultimately what builds wealth over time, that doesn't mean that other investment ideas should be ignored altogether. When a stock gets cheap enough, even if its dividend is questionable, sometimes you have to jump on it.In this episode, Greg builds on the premise of Episode 18 and examines Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation ($OCSL), a business development company with a 10%+ yield. At the risk of contradicting himself and the case he made against high yield, he argues that there comes a time when value beats dividend sustainability. While the risks of high-yield investments remain, he uses OCSL to compare dividend growth vs. sustainable dividend growth. Later on, Greg provides updates on companies we have covered in past episodes, and where we view them post-Q4 earnings. If you are interested in the original episodes where we went in-depth into each story, they are linked below:The Clorox Company ($CLX): Ep. 8 - Dirty vs. Clean Opportunities & Ep. 9 - Greater Volatility and More Uncertainty...Emerson Electric ($EMR): Ep. 17 - The Dilemma With Slow Growth3M Co ($MMM): Ep. 15 - You Don't Need A "Winner" to 10x Your IncomeUnited Parcel Service ($UPS): Ep. 19 - Do Dividends Care About Recessions?Send us a textNotes & Resources:DCM Investment Reports & ModelsIf you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at ethan@growmydollar.com.Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - TwitterIf you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review