Understanding the Sahm Rule (with economist Claudia Sahm)

Pitchfork Economics with Nick Hanauer

Nov 21 2023 • 42 mins

Mainstream economists have been predicting a recession on the horizon for over a year, with some doomsayers even making up something called “a non-recession recession” to characterize the state of the economy. There’s no better person to cut through all this bluster and nonsense than the creator of one of the most reliable economic indicators created in the last few decades: the Sahm Rule, which aims to predict and track recessions in real time. Former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm joins the podcast to walk us through the Sahm Rule’s methodology and explains how it utilizes timely data to provide early warnings of economic downturns, offering policymakers, businesses, and individuals a valuable tool for proactive decision-making. Claudia Sahm is an esteemed economist and policy expert who has served as director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, Senior Economist at the Federal Reserve, and economist for the White House Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama. She’s known for her contributions to macroeconomics and the development of the Sahm Rule, her research on monetary policy, labor markets, and macroeconomic stabilization has made her a trusted advisor and consultant to policymakers and organizations seeking evidence-based insights. Twitter: @Claudia_Sahm Claudia Sahm Substack: https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/  ‘We do not need a recession, but we may get one’: https://www.ft.com/content/3213f700-26a7-4d84-aca0-d7cc5bf11484  Nick's new book, Corporate Bullsh*t, is out now! https://www.corporatebsbook.com Website: http://pitchforkeconomics.com Twitter: @PitchforkEcon Instagram: @pitchforkeconomics Nick’s twitter: @NickHanauer

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