UpOnly: Chats with Crypto Experts

Brian Krogsgard, Jordan Fish

Join Cobie and Ledger as as they chat with the most interesting people in crypto.

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Down Badly
6d ago
1 hr 59 mins
Down BadlyCrypto Narratives with Frank Chaparro
LinksFrank TwitterThe ScoopShow PartnerThis episode is presented by FTX. Trade on an awesome mobile interface fee-free, and still get all the great portfolio tracking features you know and love: https://uponly.tv/ftxShow NotesWhy Shave Mustache?– “It’ll come back”– Cousins getting married, doesn’t wanna steal the showThe Block– Scoops has been there since 2018– Soon to be 4 year anniversary– 100+ people– Have data, research content, consulting/ advisory– Subscription products for all these legacy folksVenture Capital– Last year there was 32B that poured into crypto VCNFTs– Bored Apes/ Larva Labs– Some people outside of crypto may not think apes are impressive from an art standpoint– “this price is ridiculous!”– But there are so many things that are like that, handbags for exampleEnvironmental Impact of NFTs?– There is a lag between what we know in crypto vs what the outside world knows– Even when there are changes to make it better, it takes a long time for the public to accept a net narrative– It’s just a viral narrativeLarva Labs Deal– Scoops was surprised– He never expected M&A among NFT entities– Might even be a bit of a risk arbitrage– Mike Dudas talked about how LinksDAO was in the cross hairs of regulatorsCrypto Politics– “If it quacks like a duck and it walks like a duck, then its a security!” -Franky Scoops– People will likely get voted out of office if they take an anti crypto stance– Ryan Selkis potentially running– There are a few other crypto natives thinking about running– Free market resonates with the right– Protect the power of the dollar pushes away the right– “Banking the unbanked” resonates with the left– Environmental concerns pushes away the left– Ted Cruz will do anything for a vote– Ledger: “I think we need to get Dan Matuszewski to run up there in Boston”– “He’d hate it so much that he’d be a good politician”– Frank: “He’d be a great politician”– Ledger: “Can you imagine Dan up there getting grilled by congress”– “He’s start grilling them back give them the Boston treatment”Exciting Trends– Excited about NFTs moving separately from the other markets– Interest rates in cryptoInsane Wealth– SBF and CZ just have unheard of money– More scared of normal multimillionaires than crypto billionaires– The crypto billionaires have just been super humble – SBFs story is classic– Scoops: “Comparison is often the thief of joy”– Why can people not hang on to their Bored Apes?!– Just targeted much more oftenTerra and Do Kwon– Do Kwon is very relaxed– They want to make UST the largest stablecoin across various different chains– Sometimes he wakes up, puts on pants, and just buys $1B worth of BitcoinFINAL ALPHA– When prices are going down, just remember to count all of the blessings that you have in your life. Things could be a lot worse 🙂Notes by Kevin and LukeMusic by GiovanniPickle
Mar 31 2022
1 hr 26 mins
Jump Crypto President Kanav Kariya on the Wormhole hack, market making, and crypto outlook
Introduction- Kanav is the President of Jump Crypto (@JumpCryptoHQ)- Jump Trading is one of the largest quant trading firms in the world and moved into crypto ~6 years ago- Grew into what Jump Crypto is today with 140 employees- Jump Crypto has been trading, building and investing in the space- Ledger: Who wins in a cage match, Alameda or Jump? Kanav: Depends on the rules!- Crypto was a trading problem to solve at first, sandbox environment for people to play with without messing up existing systems- As the space started to grow and as DeFi emerged there was a similarity to traditional environments and they got more involved- Own crypto on the their balance sheet not just when making plays Intern to President- Jump is a very flat organisation usually three levels at most away from the top- A lot of freedom to work on things and push it further with more resources for what works- Kanav worked early on crypto projects that performed well and it led to getting his position and still building out the team- All in, all of the time. Always looking for engineers and ops people- Recently brought on a CMO Sophisticated Competition- Jump and most traders are playing on different time horizons e.g. seconds to minutes- Smart contracts and aspects of DeFi are less competitive as firms are still apprehensive Trading Systems- Some are highly automated others have more manual intervention. Alpha building process to build prediction models then plug it into an execution system- However there are things about the markets the models aren’t aware about that someone with pulse on the market would know- Mature risk management is in place taken from Jumps historical experience. A lot of it is hard coded in to prevent people putting on over sized positions- Not a lot going on with options markets, much smaller than everything else. Just because it hasn’t worked in the past doesn’t mean it won’t so will continue to watch Narrative Surprises?- Built the first highly electronic OTC desk but the narrative didn’t play out to the expected extent. Institutional narrative was slower to play out - a lot of red tape to get through for institutions and waiting for regulatory clarity but believes it’s still going to happen- How long Uniswap V2 has continues to be incentivised continues to be surprising Wormhole- CertusOne built the V1 and they were acquired by Jump. Wormhole connects 7 chains now transferring a lot of different information. Governed by 19 guardians, of which Jump Crypto is one- Wormhole had a 120K ETH hack recently- Developer noticed some discrepancies and they all jumped on a call to confirm the vulnerability then it was all hands on board to deal with it- Jump Crypto made the decision to backstop the funds Hopes for the future- Phantom and Solana pay type stuff- You see the uses on twitter, looks great- No on knows what a seed phrase is! We need better UX- On the gaming and metaverse side - i just want to have fun and be able to play a game- On the research side - ZK seems promising would like stuff there FINAL ALPHA- Harness the power of asymmetric upside- If you can see asymmetric upside and then place a lot of bets, you gmi
Feb 10 2022
1 hr 26 mins
Untitled Crypto Podcast Episode #2Untitled Crypto Podcast, Episode 1Michael Saylor: Bitcoin is the Best Property in the World
LinksSaylor TwitterWebShow PartnerThis episode is presented by FTX. Trade on an awesome mobile interface fee-free, and still get all the great portfolio tracking features you know and love: https://uponly.tv/ftxShow NotesBitcoin Journey– First tweeted about Bitcoin in 2013, was skeptical– Would comment on early tech, very unknown at the time– Would tweet about Bitcoin and people find his old tweets– Learned about Bitcoin through poker and online gamblingDiversifying– DON’T DIVERSIFY– Diversifying is selling the winners to buy the losers– Amazon wins– Walmart kinda treads water– and 15,000 companies lose– It’s nearly impossible to beat a digital monopolyBanking Experience– Lost $1M in a bank rug– Lost $1M in an Argentina rug as well– Banks wouldn’t let him move his money around– He got crushed by Argentina inflation– Kept getting smoked – “can we buy a yacht, float it to the US, then sell it here?”– Couldn’t do that, eventually gave upCurrent Bitcoin Experience– Then had $1B company with $500M cash on balance sheet– Knew it was gonna get inflated away– Saylor: “It’s like losing half your body – like amputating your left arm and left leg”– Now has like $5B worth of Bitcoin– If you’re on main street you had the worst year of your life– If you’re on Wall Street you had the best year of your life– First Bitcoin buy in August was defensive– Bought first amount at like $11k BTC ($250M buy)– Then got $600M loan at 1% interest…and just bought Bitcoin lmao– Saylor: “All time high is just the all time high to date”Business and Bitcoin– Cobie: “Given the cyclical nature of crypto, I’ve seen life ruining bear markets and pre up only euphoria bull markets. Will you keep buying bitcoin forever?”– Saylor: “Yeah” LMAO– Devaluing currency is crushing basically every small business– Saylor: “It’s like you’re rowing 7 knots, but the current is moving against you at 7 knots”– Michael Sailor! *credit to CryptoCred*– Saylor: “It is true that if I deal you double aces, you have an advantage in the poker game. But if I put a gun to your head, you don’t have that advantage anymore!” think he’s saying zoom out, think bigger lol– More war/ poker/ boating analogiesBitcoin vs Other Cryptos– The others are very complicated, there’s likely a crypto economy in the future– Bitcoin is not like them it is simple– Once a sovereign wealth fund owns $5B of it, then its OK for big companies to own $5B of it, and there’s a domino effect– One regulator could wake up tomorrow and put out a press release that doubles the market– There are 10,000 big institutions that can start to pour in and that tips everyone in– Saylor: “If you’re Apple, you can take your market cap up $2 trillion. Do you want $2 trillion???”– The real Bitcoin bond – borrow $1B at 1% interest and buy BitcoinCountries Buying Bitcoin– Cobie: “So El Salvador did it and now there are rumors of Honduras doing it – I do think the second person to follow is a strong form of leadership”– Ledger: “Your top job as a large holder of Bitcoin is to convince others to buy Bitcoin to increase the network effects”Bitcoin Maximalism– Ledger: basically asked if there is any chance Saylor buys anything besides Bitcoin?– Satoshi disappeared, price was a penny, there’s no pre-mine, its PoW, there’s no yield– Basically, it’s pure– Saylor: “Every proof of stake coin is a security”– If you are a person of any fame, you cannot endorse a security– However, you can endorse property– “Saylor Coin, Saylor Moon Coin, Son of Shiba Moon Coin”– China could create China Coin (only legal to mine in China)– There is risk in property, but its heavy and sound– You want property to be heavy and durableCrypto Future– The first decade of crypto was off shore, entrepreneurial– The second will be on shore, institutional– We are in the middle, and will be there for 3-5 years– Cobie (summarizing): “you buy Bitcoin because you know what Bitcoin will be in 50 years”– Other coins not so muchLife Advice– Saylor: “Stay in your lane”– You start trying to express a nuanced opinion and next thing you know your debating a nobel prize winner in that field– There are black swan tail risks that can crush everything so can’t worry about them much– If you think there’s a 95% chance Bitcoin goes to 0 then alright put 5% of your money in– Misc. good quotes:– “Bitcoin could be a $100 trillion asset without L2s without Lightning Network or anything”– “The block of granite under Manhattan doesn’t move. It still has value”Do you own Bitcoin as well personally?– Yes, Michael Saylor owns 17,732 BTCFINAL ALPHA– “Focus.”– “Just because you can acquire a thing doesn’t mean you can maintain a thing, and just because you can maintain a thing doesn’t mean you can enjoy a thing” referring mostly to a boat– “The hardest thing is to compete forever, profitably”Notes by Kevin and LukeMusic by GiovanniPickle
Jan 26 2022
2 hrs 7 mins
Vitalik Buterin on Ethereum and immortality
LinksVitalik Twittervitalik.ca blogShow PartnerThis episode is presented by FTX. Trade on an awesome mobile interface fee-free, and still get all the great portfolio tracking features you know and love: https://uponly.tv/ftxShow NotesWdyd Besides Crypto?– Vitalik reads a lot– Fascinated in how languages have evolved– Vitalik: Like you know how gate used to mean a structure that lets things in and out…now “gate” means a media scandal!– Ledger: “Favorite high fantasy?”– Vitalik: “Early Game of Thrones were great. Early high fantasy was very much good vs. evil, like in Lord of the Rings Elves and men are good, and Orcs are evil”– It’s possible Vitalik would run a book club in the future given Cobie would want it10 years ago what’d you see yourself doing?– Wasn’t thinking too deeply– Then Bitcoin came along and turned into something– Vitalik was the first writer for Bitcoin magazine– Cobie: “Did you at one point apply for a job at Ripple?”– Vitalik: “Yes”– Jed McCaleb said yes, but Visa trouble prevented him from joiningEthereum Beginnings– Too many co-founders at first (there are 8 for those of you who just pretend you like crypto)– Some coding changes too– Vitalik: “Sometimes I wonder how things would’ve turned out if Ethereum had different distribution”– Cobie: “Do you see Ethereum now as your life’s work or is there a future where you don’t work on Ethereum?”– Will be a large part of future– Might do some writings and other stuff in the future– Vitalik: “There’s a part of me that just wants to troll the market and repeat that stunt again [faking death lol]”Family– Vitalik’s dad is like a crypto influencer– Mom getting involved in crypto, optimistic rollupProof-of-Stake– When did PoS become obvious as the path forward?– Vitalik: “2014” holy chad– Eventually had a proper understanding of the tradeoffs and got convinced it was the way forward– ZEC and DOGE also switching to PoSNFTs– Why are they so good at onboarding and what’s the future?– There are huge desires for inclusion and collectibles– Vitalik: “Even like 10 years ago privatejet.com was more valuable than a private jet”– Virtual property is a thing– NFTs could be the big first use cases for crypto besides currencies and DeFi– Its an easy way for artists to get money– Vitalik: “Sometimes there is certain value in trading of things being hard”*Vitalik cuts out*”He needs to pay more gas!”Research– Most research prob already done– zk is really amazing technology but needs to be improved til we can use it– MEV could use some more researchWallet Improvements– Wallet security and multisig– Most wallets just have 1 password, can be dangerous– Alternatives:– Multisig – 3 keys, need at least 2 to transfer funds– Social recovery – on Vitalik’s cold wallet there are 6 individuals who have power, 4 out of 6 needed to move fundsMost likely to be Satoshi?– Craig Wright, Charles Hoskinson, Elon Musk, Loomdart– Vitalik: Blueberry– Cobie: “If you had to choose someone who’s your best guess?”– Vitalik: “If I had to choose someone I’d guess Hal Finney… between 1-20% chance it’s Hal Finney”Vitalik Memes– Vitalik has replied to deranged vitalik memers hahaha– Vitalik: “FTX – does that stand for FiTalik Exchange?”Multi-chain but not Cross-Chain– There are too many risks with bridging– Can just create same assets and use on 1 chain– In single chain, you can always revert chain and everyone gets assets back to at least initial state– With multi-chain, if stuff breaks, the problem is way larger (double spending etc)Ethereum Roadmap– Goal is still to have $0.05 per transaction– Hard to scale without sacrificing on security or centralization– With Rollups and sharding Ethereum can scale immensely– Within a couple of years Ethereum fees will be back under 5 centsFuture of Ethereum– Progress on zk EVM is going very well– Most nodes won’t store full chain– There will be a few who do*wifi cut out 5 min miss*Privacy– Blockchain isn’t “true privacy” just pseudonymous– Regulators ok with that– Once its on ETH… where do we go?– Vitalik: “People are really underestimating the risks/ downsides of no privacy”– Ledger: “I want to know the craziest thing Vitalik ever bought with crypto”– Vitalik: “Metformin probably”– Anti-aging drugAnti-aging– Ledger: “How long do you think someone born today will live?”– Vitalik: “I think more than a 50% chance someone will see the year 3,000”– SIR!– How does equality come into play? Just the rich live forever?– Vitalik: “I think it will shortly evenly distribute”– Not just billionaires get to live forever– Anti-aging stuff should be part of the plan for countries that have universal health care– Vitalik: “COVID vaccines should have been offered as a choice for those who wanted it in summer 2020”– More towards very conservative for mandates, very liberal for choice– Vitalik: “If people start to live to be 500 years old psych will be bad – this is a fair critique”– Not all tech solves all problemsWorld Stuff– It will take a long time before we actually populate Mars– Think about Antartica…we aren’t there yet and its way easierNon-crypto Area of Investment– Biotech– Really thinks there will be a long arc of progress over next 70 years– Same way computers had a long arc of progress over last 70 yearsFINAL ALPHA– Vitalik: “Come out of every day a better person than when you went into that day”– Vitalik: “Whether its math or cryptography or working out, whatever it is do something”– It puts you in a frame of mind of progress which is really good for mental healthNotes by Kevin and LukeMusic by GiovanniPickle
Jan 20 2022
1 hr 42 mins
Tetranode on being an activist whale for Ethereum projectsCobie
LinksCobieWebShow PartnerThis episode is presented by FTX. Trade on an awesome mobile interface fee-free, and still get all the great portfolio tracking features you know and love: https://uponly.tv/ftxShow NotesUpOnlyTV NotesIntroduction & Early Days ⁃ Bought Bitcoin first in 2012 but really down the rabbit-hole through 2013 onwards ⁃ Only other original CT person still active is Bob Laxative (formerly KingBTC) ⁃ Being early turned people into survivors. Cryptsy, MtGox etc hacked. Everything going to zero, only self custody BTC felt safe ⁃ Started with £200-300 ($500) and didn’t put any more fiat in other than one investment in 2020 (that went to zero) ⁃ Got shilled QuarkCoin by Bill Still on cryptsy and accidentally sold the top. Got a DM from Jebus911 about another coin that went 70x ⁃ Up significantly in BTC early but down in USD in bear market. Lost a lot of BTC on things like BTCBuilder ⁃ Sold Cryptsy listings via API for months while at uni for free multiples before the alpha got leaked ⁃ Saw BTC as the solution following the financial crisis and levels of corruption and incompetenceMtGox ⁃ Gox was the main exchange and allegedly had a bot to buy back BTC that had been lost ⁃ Constant buy pressure caused the price to run ⁃ Unsure what the outcome would have been on the state of the market if it hadn’t happened ⁃ Some friends got completely wiped by Gox ⁃ Psychologically put a lot of people off BTC having to consider the cost of buying the BTC they had lostTrading & Making It ⁃ Wouldn’t consider ever having been a full time trader ⁃ It was more of a hobby or side hustle. Decisions mostly based on instinct and prior cycle behaviour ⁃ It’s become much harder to call cycle bottoms and tops ⁃ People create narratives to rationalise things it’s easier to learn from your own mistakes with time looking back ⁃ Above average at most things when actually trying, except League of Legends ⁃ Deep down believed he would eventually be a millionaire. Without crypto this would still have happened from acquisitions/startups ⁃ Opens you to being more risk tolerant in other areas of life e.g. taking stock vs salary ⁃ Easier to have conviction when you don’t sit through large drawdowns and can gauge risk. “HODL is for poor people” unless disciplined you’ll let your gains evaporate and might become a forced seller at the bottom ⁃ Tries to estimate probability of it being over on every dip. Wants to sell as close to the top as possible, can buy back higher if wrong. Won’t work if you do this on every dipSupercycle ⁃ Idea of a Supercycle described by Su in earlier episode is probably right ⁃ If crypto becomes integrated into society and BTC becomes the store of value then it’s the only thing that makes sense ⁃ Thinks it’s not the right time for it to happen, integration is tertiary ⁃ If crypto disappears now how many lives are actually impacted ⁃ Unless you run …say a crypto podcast? (pls sir my family) ⁃ Maybe it is now but maybe it needs another boom/bust first before it reaches that level ⁃ Top 10/20 assets on CoinGecko right now – are we really ready for a supercycle??ETH ⁃ ETH DAO hack, ETC fork, ICOs put off. Didn’t buy more ETH because conviction was low with all of this. Still held original ETH but could have rotated into buying much more ⁃ Instead of focusing on ponzification it’s best to focus on change in products available e.g. genuine use case like lending on chain being built ⁃ Building blocks add value to the ecosystem because they enable future building blocks. OG DeFi protocols and things like MetaMask responsible for leading that changeFounding Lido & ETH 2.0 ⁃ Co-founded Lido but says Konstantin and Vasily are the real brains behind everything along with the core teams. Fought to not call it dPool. (Fought with Ledger to not have UpOnly called TokenTalk) ⁃ When PoS was created there was no real concept of DeFi ⁃ Staking Ethereum is just a better form of wrapped Ethereum and risk free yield is the bottom brick of DeFi ⁃ Thinks merge will be Q2/Q3 or later. Beacon chains have been live for a whole ⁃ People will think it’s bullish but $35B on the beacon chain will become unlocked too⁃ Wider ETH community attitude to scaling is bad in level of acknowledgement it’s atrociously bad right now. Optimistic roll ups have felt like a disappointment so far and ZK aren’t EVM compatible yet ⁃ Misaligned incentives between people who got rich holding ETH and the usability of the network ⁃ Equally sceptical of alternative L1s. Fragmented liquidity and most will fail to sustain ecosystems without incentives ⁃ Easier to trust that ETH will be around in future vs a coin flip on some other L1s. Max 5% survive and likely still struggle. Maybe new L1s just keep getting funded forever?Identifying the Meta ⁃ Used to be buying things before it got listed on exchange, playing on APIs ⁃ Moved to buying when it listed on smaller exchanges before it hit the bigger exchanges ⁃ Shifted again to how to get coins before they hit any exchange and people would monitor BitcoinTalk and cloud mining was popular ⁃ 2017 was ICO meta trying to get in before main token sale ⁃ 2020 was DeFi farming ⁃ 2021 was BTC -> ETH -> DeFi complacency -> meme coins -> NFTs -> L1s and OHM forks ⁃ What’s next? There is no crystal ball, you can guess the narrative that makes sense or watch what’s happening and being aggressive when you spot it ⁃ Short term playing the meta it doesn’t have to make sense a lot of the time it’s just a game of chicken anyway. Narrative just needs PMF ⁃ People assume they’re already late rather than factoring in if the narrative really takes off ⁃ Narrative can drive both supply and demand and people underestimate how it can get out of hand ⁃ Figuring out the meta game is the most important thing and how to make money in crypto. Avoid things like YouTube they’re good at content marketing not crypto ⁃ Have to avoid maximalism and accept these trades and rotationsBear Market Predictions ⁃ Metaverse and GameFi have crazy valuations but a couple with war chests that will enable them to keep building in a bear market ⁃ Main goal can possibly become preserving the treasury vs delivering ⁃ Meme coins all to zero ⁃ Anything with a constant token emission requirement all to zero ⁃ Regulations could cause decentralised in name only projects to disappear ⁃ Young hungry teams will keep building ⁃ 60% of people who made life changing money this cycle will lose it allWorking in Crypto & DAOs ⁃ Shift recently between keeping a normal job alongside crypto to now. It’s become much more mainstream and more risk effective to now join a crypto project or protocol. In crypto it can be better to be an early employer vs founder which is quite different to traditional tech ⁃ DAO currently a type of regulatory arbitrage which operates worse but can have a token. There are examples of very good and very bad DAOs ⁃ Best DAOs won’t be the ones people like in a bull market, maybe even those with concentrated ownership like 15 addresses vs retail owners getting angry at teams over token economics ⁃ DAOs will demand a new type of VC. More contributor type VC involvement e.g. what Paradigm and Delphi are moving towardsFinding a Crew ⁃ Early days had a TG group called 27 club to talk about the markets and probably wouldn’t have made it in crypto without it. 70/80% of the members did not make it in crypto ⁃ Most people who make it have a group like this to share alpha. Essential to have people in your life who are all inMaximalism ⁃ Picking a group and hating an opposing group is historically quite common for humans ⁃ BTC and ETH maxi people are very similar people that would be friends irl but project hatred at each other online instead ⁃ BTC maximalism used to be people speculate on new things while quietly all knowing that BTC was the only thing really worthwhile but could experiment to see if there was value elsewhere ⁃ Fees similarly now except it’s expanded beyond just BTC to a small number of other coins ⁃ Maximalism now has changed similarly to political influencers and become inflammatory and toxic ⁃ See it a lot now in BTC and ETH with the same talking points, it’s counterproductive⁃ Staying open minded is only positive for you as a person within this space. On a long enough timeline all maximalists are wrong at some pointFuture Prediction ⁃ Most probable future is maybe a KYC country chain with DeFi, but without governance tokens, with the base currency being a CBDCRisk Management Pyramid Changes ⁃ Reason it’s wrong is that if you take a 5% entry in something risky that performed really well, by constantly taking off the position to keep it at 5% you’d ruin your upside ⁃ Pyramid makes sense as an entry tool and rebalancing once the trade actually ends makes more sense ⁃ There’ll be an updated version coming soonFinal Alpha ⁃ “Tyranny is the deliberate removal of nuance” – Albert Maysles ⁃ Be wary of anyone intentionally removing or ignoring nuance from a conversation as often they have an agenda ⁃ Being a structured critical thinker is probably the most important thing going into 2022 and the following decadeNotes by Kevin and LukeMusic by GiovanniPickle
Dec 17 2021
3 hrs 51 mins
Ethereum co-founder and ConsenSys founder Joseph Lubin on the inevitability of Ethereum
LinksJoe TwitterWebShow PartnerThis episode is presented by FTX. Trade on an awesome mobile interface fee-free, and still get all the great portfolio tracking features you know and love: https://uponly.tv/ftxShow NotesIntroduction ⁃ Joe co-founded Ethereum and ConsenSys ⁃ Worked in robotics, machine vision, AI. Moved into the financial space and became depressed by that, the economy and geopolitics. Saw centralised systems as bankrupt politically and financially ⁃ Read the Bitcoin whitepaper in 2011. Met Vitalik in Toronto in 2014 and read the Ethereum whitepaper that night and it became clear it was the way to build a system better, faster and more expressive than on Bitcoin ⁃ Web3 vision resource: polynya.medium.com also /u/liberosist on Reddit ⁃ Vitalik did a great job of setting an intellectually honest tone of integrity along with the power of the ideas held them together vs differing opinionsMetamask ⁃ Metamask has a decentralised future ahead of it (Token confirmed?!) ⁃ Metamask is already an ecosystem and it will be more explicitly an ecosystemNFTs ⁃ Astonishing to see how many people are affected by the NFT phenomenon. Major crossing of the chasm – use of the technology without a real understanding of the underlying ⁃ Cobie: It converted a lot more people but it’s also there is huge hostility to NFTs starting with the climate narrative ⁃ Joe: People with entrenched or vested interest trying to slow things down. Can’t worry too much about naysayers, try to stay patient and educate ⁃ Ethereum and others have a solution for the energetically expensive PoW. Bitcoin energy burning is almost a religion but with renewable energy they may be able to stay the courseInstitutions and CBDCs ⁃ Multiyear agreements with financial institutions to enable Ethereum technology ⁃ NFT pipeline is also really big for projects right now ⁃ Regulation and liquidity along with matured technology the movement will be unstoppable ⁃ Nation state money is declining, looks like the end of a 80 year debt supercycle moving into a new era ⁃ Cobie: Governments have realised this, spinning up CBDCs per country. Not sure what they mean by it but they’ve accepted using these systems as the future ⁃ Joe: Depends on the country, China CBDC won’t be very decentralised. CBDCs will take a long time to figure out, don’t want to mess with systems billions rely on. ConsenSys have worked on multiple CBDC projects ⁃ Real time economy would shrink the duration between value creation events and be a growth driver for the economyMultichain ⁃ Seen a multichain future for a long time ⁃ Security is dominated by BTC and ETH. More projects are focused on Execution ⁃ Alt L1s are more like competitors to Ethereum L2s ⁃ Solana are spending a huge about for security, fees are an order of magnitude less than what they’re paying. May look to ETH rollups in future for a solution ⁃ Ethereum has a massively unfair advantage with the size and speed of the development of the ecosystem ⁃ Cobie: How does Ethereum retain the ability to make changes while people become more reliant on it? ⁃ Joe: Not a new problem, Vitalik and others have spoken about simplifying the lower layers. Need to continue to improve the chain and sharding. Can see Palm as an ETH L2, Gnosis as a L2 and L3Memes & New Economy ⁃ Everything is a meme now ⁃ Budweiser tweeting gm and wagmi ⁃ Moving from a previous economy which is very physical to an economy that is essentially all about creativity and living in virtual worlds ⁃ Things are going to get wacky and interesting in a creativity economyMEV ⁃ Didn’t specifically think of MEV back in the day but recognised fee mechanisms would have sophistication come to it ⁃ Wallet Extractable Value is also being paid attention to ⁃ Continually evolving set of systems designed to make communities, users and organisations happy with given choices. End up paying the users of the system out of the MEVIdentity ⁃ Wallet is your digital authority ⁃ MetaMask moving towards enabling increasingly granular security ⁃ Able to have multiple personas and bring them together e.g. personas may need to be brought together for a better loan⁃ Identity has been worked on from the start by ConsenSys and others from the start ⁃ As DAOs become increasingly politically important there will be a forum in which identity starts to ramify significantly ⁃ Thought DIDs would have been adopted quickly but it’s a deep set of problemsFinal Alpha ⁃ Be kind to the people around you, take care of themNotes by Kevin and LukeMusic by GiovanniPickle
Dec 9 2021
1 hr 47 mins
Macro crypto narratives and investing via first principles, with Jordi Alexander
LinksJordi TwitterShow PartnerThis episode is presented by FTX. Trade on an awesome mobile interface fee-free, and still get all the great portfolio tracking features you know and love: https://uponly.tv/ftxShow NotesCrypto Intro– Started off as a professional poker player– Then was working as a trader– Was in San Francisco during 2016, impossible not to hear about crypto– Was trading bonds and gold– Then went 80/20 gold/bitcoin, then 50/50, now just 100% Bitcoin– Gold is just always $1800 lolDOGE Debate– @gametheorizing debated Su Zhu on if Doge could be real money– main take – the centralization of ownership just makes it impossible– Liquidity has been a huge reason for these meme run upsLiquidity– Low liquidity changes everyones hopes– Once we’re in a bear market, everything will likely make more sense as low liquidity drives shitcoins way down– There will be backlash to extreme wealth inequality that’s created from crypto wealth– Like trillionaires based off of a new internet will not sit well with peopleCobie Wealth Talk– Humans create more wealth over time– Bitcoin creates a fixed supply of money– In the end, won’t people be incentivized to not work or invest and just hold?– game: “Cobie is absolutely right, in the end we’ll likely get something like inflation around 2%. Bitcoin will have to change”– game: “We have a saying in poker that a sucker will soon be parted from his money”– Cobie: “It may be a bit cynical but I feel like wealth always centralizes”– game: “You’re absolutely right. The wealth inequality is huge now and its growing. Something’s going to have to change”Regulation– Ledger: “It would be simpler if you could “call a spade a spade” and let these tokens be a security if that’s their best use case, instead of making founders pigeon hole their tokens utility into something that makes less sense”2022 Theses– game: “If you have any dog coins you should sell them”– “Come January we still have a bit more of a bull run”– “Only time the bull run stops is when there’s no more QE, rates get raised, which is maybe later next year”– so basically all this money gets sucked out, rates go up and holding cash feels better than it does now– The mid tier NFTs are not keeping a bidPonzis– Back when this started, people would say “Bitcoin’s a ponzi”– Some things are more ponzi than others– Basically, need real value creation for something to not be a “ponzi”– Cobie: “Can you explain how OHM works?”– game: “OHM is also a ponzi. The tokenomics is much more complex which hides it, so like it was a ponzi but now holds all these other coins”– Ledger: “Is governance enough?”– game: “absolutely”– Cobie: “Can you explain how HEX works?”– game: “HEX was ahead of its time. It’s a very complex ponzi.”– Cobie: “If you are early to a ponzi then its great right… what would you say to people joining ponzis now?”– game: “in a liquidity crunch, the ponzis go away, and they get closer to NAV valuation. There is real value in community and people will pay for that, so that’s an end game for some of them. Same with NFTs”Web3– Feels like there are a bunch of random VCs coming up– You don’t just “decentralize” everything like “decentralized Uber”– game thinks we get something more like web2.5 where celebrities and others start using NFTs as pfps and stuff– game: “crypto is the best casino. Like we have Bitcoin store of value, L1s with smart contracts, then casinos”– Web3 is kinda like companies just having tokens to incentivize and provide rewards– game: “Once you have an NFT world where you can use them it’s not a ponzi anymore”– Ledger: “Tokenization of communities, with VIP access and other stuff, is a good use of tokens and NFTs”Trading– Ledger: “There are people for whom this year has been absolutely stupid, just chasing the pump, marrying now bags and not holding any Bitcoin”– Shitcoins up or down by end of 2022?– Cobie: “idk. if it tops in march or may then maybe up, if it tops in january then probably down”Scenario That Extends Cycle?– realistically probably not– will likely trickle down to smaller caps– only thing that pushes it is if Fed keeps printing/ rates lowCT Drama– Su Zhu super dunking on Ethereum then buying it, using followers as liquidity, basically become a super villain – is this a pro or con for Three Arrows Capital?– game: “Completely depends on founders. Reminds me of Bobby Axelrod on Billions”Feds in Crypto– game talked with Su Zhu in depth about future of ETH if it was a $10T asset– it will become very political, countries forcing votes that benefits them, etc– only makes sense Feds are in crypto now lolETH as Money– Who cares what you call it?– The “ultra sound money” meme is awful– Why would you want deflationary money?– *insert various examples of why it doesn’t matter if you call it money e.g. if you buy a million dollar house is your house money? who cares!End Game of USD?– It’s honestly super strong– If there’s no geopolitical power change it just stays in controlBlow Off Top?– Thought there was gonna be one– Used to be 60% chance, now more like 20% chanceNotes by KevinMusic by GiovanniPickle
Dec 8 2021
2 hrs 14 mins
Trader Stream with ISO, SZ, and Abe
LinksAdam TwitterTraderSZ TwitterCryptoISO TwitterShow PartnerThis episode is presented by FTX. Trade on an awesome mobile interface fee-free, and still get all the great portfolio tracking features you know and love: https://uponly.tv/ftxShow NotesTrading– abetrade – making case for leverage if you’re at least decent at trading– Cobie: “Is there a reasonable path for someone who’s new to crypto to becoming profitable within 6 months to 1 year?”– abe: “Yeah I mean I started on legacy markets…took me like 2-3 years before I became reasonably profitable”– abe just sticks to BTC and ETH– SZ traded 10 years of FX, but then 1 alt run can just make him more– SZ thinks the dollar top is in– iso used to leverage trade a lot– thinks everyone should go through that phase to figure out what they’re good at– did mostly TA, trying to catch bids on the pain points in the market– now mostly buy and holds, finds good projects and invests in fundamentals– saw this coming for metaverse and gaming tokensMetaverse– ISO has a strong thesis there and is holding a lot of metaverse and gaming tokens– iso sees that the metaverse already exists – his nephew spends so much time on Fortnite and Roblox. That’s where he hangs out with his friends and trades things in game– saw that crypto had an obvious intersection there and the assets would be on chain– sold AXS way too early lol– but has a long term thesis that crypto gaming will be HUGE– ISO: “This is inning 1 of crypto gaming”– Much more narrative trading now– Cobie: “Adam, do you think the metaverse is a real thing?”– Adam: “No I think it’s gonna be huge…I think its the next step”– Cobie: “ISO – how do you position for these trades?”– mostly relative trades based on users/ large caps and small caps– ISO: “Video games transitioning to p2e will make people see that this is not a waste of time, and its a source of income”Moar Trading– “I think we go higher”– the alt L1s never pump at the same time– gotta catch the rotation– Cobie: “Bitcoin culture is almost cringe within crypto now”– it used to be cool and dangerous and Silk Road and stuff, but now its just cringey– Cobie: “I think I’m philosophically against EIP 1559, economically for it”Macro Outlook– Ledger: “You gotta look for ways to justify your positions so when price action goes against you ya need macros to justify it” lol– by the time everyone’s saying it its priced in– some stocks talk and macro somethings– SZ thinks 52k then maybe 60kPersonal Max Pain– Ledger: “Zcash under $200”– Sam coins are absolutely crushing Barry coins– Sam coins just go up, Barry coins get crushed lolBack to Metaverse– ISO: Wilder World had great fundamentals and kept hitting their milestone– Next wave is potentially gaming on AVAX– Also, NEAR protocol has an $800M fund pushing their ecosystemL1 Rotation Trade Dead?– Tough to tell, def not going to 0, but maybe relative momentum– Cobie: “I mean SBF might literally have infinite bid for Solana with like a few bps of FTX”– Bullish unlocks?– Cobie: “People get scared of unlocks, but with the ‘bullish unlock’ meme, most of the locked coins are sold OTC on a trust basis, so the people holding aren’t up 10,000x, the new holders are really only up like 2-3x”– There are bearish unlocks when FDV is high, volume is low, investors are up, etcFINAL ALPHA– ISO: “Really important to keep an open mind – a lot of success in life will come from surrounding yourself with the right people”– SZ: “Take somebody less fortunate that’s in the space and try to change their life. 1 at a time”– Adam: “There are so many things you can do – spend less time arguing about what is the best way to make money and spend more time following your own curiosity”Notes by KevinMusic by GiovanniPickle
Dec 2 2021
1 hr 48 mins
Hentai Avenger and Ansem on trading, trends, and market cycles
Linkshttps://twitter.com/blknoiz06https://twitter.com/HentaiAvenger66Show PartnerThis episode is presented by FTX. Trade on an awesome mobile interface fee-free, and still get all the great portfolio tracking features you know and love: https://uponly.tv/ftxShow NotesIntro - Ledger refusing to say Hentai Avenger - Will go with “Bob Avenger” for the stream lolHentai Avenger  - “From last year to now made like a good sum of money. Then idk how I got here”  - Sold the top and bought the bottom this year   - Scaled account from $20k to $50M over last 5 years   - 21 y/oZ   - Started crypto back in 2017   - Best trade was Solana at $1.50   - Went on a hot streak with alt L1s   - AXS —> AVAX —> SOL —> Harmony   - “If you just buy in and wait then you can get stuck being in old bags”Avenger Before Crypto   - Avenger was an esports Rocket League pro   - Summer 2016 made $20k in Rocket League, threw it into biotech stocks, made a little over a mil in 3 years   - Then 2020 came and made it all back on the covid bounce   - First intro into crypto was DeFi summer   - Has a lot of money in metaverse shitcoins atmZ’s Crypto Experience   - When he’s hitting a lot in a row he gets cocky, then when he gets cocky he’ll make a wrong call and slow down   - Leverage? Not worth it because he doesn’t wanna blow his account up   - Leverage keeps all your focus so you miss the gems that are coming upp2e Gaming   - Z: “When I was young I’d play WoW like hours and hours a day”   - Hadn’t found a fun p2e game yet   - Really liked DeFi Kingdom   - TSM partnered with Aurory to play pro esports there   - Cobie: “I have some thoughts”   - Ledger: “I was gonna try to set up here for you lol”   - Cobie: “So I dunked pretty hard on this first person shooter game that I thought looked like shit”   - This was my (https://twitter.com/cmsintern) tweet last night   - Thinks that these games aren’t good but people only wanna play them to earn and that’s a bad strategy   - The really good games that come where you play to own will be the best   - Z: “I actually haven’t made any money playing DeFi Kingdom yet I’ve prob spent more than I should have on heroes” lol   - Ledger: “Cobie do these games have to be better than traditional games?”   - Cobie: “If they aren’t as good then its not a game its a job. If it’s primary salary then it just turns into like serfdom”p2e Gaming (cont’d)   - Ledger: “I don’t know I take the reverse. Like if I kinda like a game and I get paid to play then I’ll probably choose that game over the slightly better game”   - Ledger: “Like if I can play Halo 1 and get paid, vs Halo 3 and not get paid, then as the every man I’ll probably take Halo 1 and earn a few bucks”   - Ledger: “Like I saw CMS Intern’s tweet and was like holy crap I didn’t know they had 1st person shooters as p2e I thought it looked cool”   - There’s an incredible future for fun games that can incorporate the p2e element   - Ledger: “Do you think there will be a crypto game that’s top 10 or top 20 games in the world in the next 5 years?”   - Z: “I think so”   - Cobie: Cobie had some good points here, but I have to cut them out as a 1-time clap back for publicly dunking on me last night    - Jk here is basically what he said:   - Cobie: “I think there will be a game that’s really good, and then it will transition to an NFT-based game with an in game currency”Current States   - Avenger: “We’ve gone from DeFi to GameFi to some metaverse plays, but we are not close to the top for these metaverse coins until like Gary Vee is dumping all his money into these”   - Ledger: “FLUFs are my back door metaverse play”   - Ledger: “Theres some like metaverse stuff like AI”   - Cobie: “AI!!! lolllllllll”   - Avenger: “Most bullish thing is inversebrah tweeting the same coins as me”   - Avenger: “Any metaverse play listed on KuCoin is like an easy 10x from here”   - IT IS KUCOIN SEASON   - Z: “All the alts that popped off in November were on KuCoin”   - Avenger: “Basically anything that gets listed on KuCoin immediately does a 2-3x”ETH/BTC Chart   - Z: “It’s going to infinity bro”   - Does ETH/BTC get to 0.12 ?   - Cobie: “If it gets to 0.12 then you get the flippening” (happens at .165)   - No reason it will stop if it takes .12   - January 2018 ETH/BTC got to 0.105   - Cobie: “0.1 is the last line of defense”Bear Market Scenarios?   - Z: “I don’t think we get a multi-year bear ever again”   - Avenger: “Yeah I don’t think we do either”   - Cobie thinks we could have another 4 year bear marketNext Stops   - Avenger: “Metaverse coins!”   - Z: “What did Sandbox do like a 6-7x in a month?”   - Ledger: “CMS Intern shilled that live on air when he came on UpOnly last summer”   - Cobie: “I think there are a lot of reasons to be cautious right now”   - Ledger: “I can see if there are a bunch of Hot Ball of Money rotations shoutout Dan Matuszewski for that term” whaddup CMS leggoChat Qs- How’d you get in early on all these runners?   Z: For Axie, finding higher lows when everything else bottomed   Avenger: built out own risk signaling metrics   Avenger: “StunLikes on twitter, he’s like some private billionaire, I think he sold an algorithm to the government for like a couple million dollars”Positions   - Avenger: “After $100k [BTC] I prob sell it all and I’m set man”   - Avenger: “You think we get to $100k BTC Cobie?”   - Cobie: “It has undeniably been the year of smart contract platforms. Been the year of SOL and AVAX and AXS more than its been the year of ETH”   - Ledger: “Are you diversifying at all?”   - Z: “Yeah I’m not as risk on as I used to be”   - Avenger: “I have a lot of real estate in Lithuania”   - Z: “Bro wtf” lmaooo   - Z goes on to shill Cosmos pretty heavily, kinda sounds good tbh   -Cobie says he’ll get some nowAnyone Smart Long-Term Bearish?   - Avenger: “Light?”   - Cobie: “He’s like short term bearish tho he’s just a trader”   - Avenger: “Then idk anyone”   - Z: “Yeah idk anyone smart that’s macro bearish”   - Cobie: “I have a few trad tech co founders who are smart but macro bearish”Moar Chat Qs-Is college a scam?   Avenger: “I like college I think college is cool”   “Where else can you find groups of fatherless women just roaming around?” - AVAX top target?   Z: “$200” - SOL top target?   Z: “0.1 ETH” - BTC top target   Avenger: “$180k”   Z: “I think 69k for Q1 2022”   Ledger: “2022” - Best airdrops   Avenger & Z: “zkSync” - Flippening (within 12 months)   Avenger & Z: “yes”FINAL ALPHA   - Avenger: “Be very careful who you tell good news to”   - Z: “Maintain a balance between crypto and the other parts of your life – will help your real life and also help your crypto trading - and also journal regularly” Notes by KevinMusic by GiovanniPickle
Nov 30 2021
2 hrs 23 mins
Haralabos Voulgaris on owning Bitcoin and the value of self sovereignty
LinksHaralabob TwitterShow PartnerThis episode is presented by FTX. Trade on an awesome mobile interface fee-free, and still get all the great portfolio tracking features you know and love: https://uponly.tv/ftxShow NotesBetting– Big betters work hard to conceal how and where they are betting– You don’t just roll up to MGM and place huge bets usually– You do it through a bot that places bets on different websites instead– Then hope they pay out lol– Got rugged heavy in 2009 for like 7 figures then the guy made off to Panama or wherever– Books will refuse really good gamblers, but will accept “fish” as long as they sign that they aren’t addicted lolCrypto– First saw it on Wired magazine when Bitcoin was around $1– Didn’t jump in at first– Started using Bitcoin in 2012 to get paid– Ledger: “Did the process in how you thought about gambling transfer over to crypto?”– Hara: “Yes I think the fact it was governed by math”– Could insulate yourself from idiotic government policies and ideologies– Gotta think about how the dollar gets manipulated since Bitcoin will remain constant– Hara thinks at some point people will decide to increase the supply of Bitcoin– This is a flaming hot take sir – I respect it– We’re gonna be old bags of dust and these kids are just gonna be living in the metaverse– It is so native and built into these kids– Ledger: “We’re just gonna go away its gonna be like the blow off top of humanity”Metaverse– Cobie: “How do you think about NFTs?”– Hara likes 2017 era NFTs– Loves CryptoPunks – all about the narrative and the story– Likes the old stuff, some of the new stuff is just super out there– More of a Bitcoin maximalist even though Hara finds Bitcoin Maximalism super toxicBitcoin Maxis– A lot of them might’ve gotten burnt in 2017 and now just think everything is a scam– Calling anything that isn’t Bitcoin is a shitcoin means that mentally there is something wrong with you– Cobie: “Part of the toxic maxis is that they missed out, then they join a cult and they have friends now and chant the same words and chant shitcoins and say “Udi you’re wrong!” and then go somewhere else”– Hara: “The bullish case for me is when nations put Bitcoin on their balance sheet – they aren’t gonna put Ethereum or Solana on there”Next Steps– Ledger: “What’s next in your life?”Hara: “I think its about sovereignty”– Has always been an individual, wants to be protected instead of looking for gains– Crypto is the #1 way to preserver your wealth– Goal before was always to buy a basketball team (need about $1B) but once he got close he was like “idk i don’t really wanna sell my Bitcoin for a basketball team” lolllllBasketball and NFTs– Ledger: “How’s it feel to see these guys getting into NFTs? Does that worry you about where we are in the cycle?”– Not at all– Thinks that’s not indicative of a top, we are nowhere even close to euphoria– People are out here protesting racism and other things– Thinks people might/ should be protesting the dollar, is surprised its not bigger yet– Hara likes the penguins! LFG– Hasn’t bought NFTs in a long time– These athletes aren’t buying punks cause they’re always looking for a deal!Twitter NFT Integration– Cobie: “How is this going to go down with the furies”– Ledger doesn’t get why these are so controversial– Hara wants to create an NFT project for all these furies– Ledger: “They already exist they’re called FLUFs – I can give you a good deal on some if you want”– *Cobie and Hara making fun of FLUFs– Ledger: “Y’all just aren’t gonna make it”Constitution DAO– Hara didn’t do it, didn’t get it– Thought it woulda been cool to get in then like burn it– Ledger: “That’s a really good way to get regulators to pay attention to crypto” lolForks– People trade on FOMO so hard– Like there’s some random ass ohm fork people ape into– ETH can get myspaced, all of this stuff can probably get replaced– Bitcoin can never get replaced– Bitcoin Diamond and Gold and Cash and all that stuff just no chance at allThe Flippening– If ETH gets to like 0.08 I’m probably a net seller of ETH– I don’t like to say ahead of time because its so hard to know the context for the move– It probably signals a time to be cautious even when people are dancing in the streetsChat QuestionsSports world guys we need?– Steven A Smith– NFTs are the gateway drug of cryptoAnon account?– NoBitcoin volcano bond?– Interesting, can just buy El Salvador bond or Bitcoin though, don’t need this although it is cool and interesting– Saylor will end with fireworks either way*The Winklevoss are the only people to ever refuse coming on UpOnly. What an outrageous decision.If you’re 25 with 100k what do you do?– Would do crypto, trying to build something, tracking different wallets– Prob not Bitcoin would do something more aggressive, L2s, track engagement, wouldn’t do leverageFINAL ALPHA– Hara: “Success = responsibility. Think about what is truly valuable and finite which is your time. Be mindful of your time and what you want to accomplish.”Notes by KevinMusic by GiovanniPickle
Nov 24 2021
2 hrs 9 mins
Debate: The morality of decentralization in crypto, with Udi and DavidParadigm founders Fred Ehrsam and Matt Huang
LinksMatt TwitterFred TwitterWebShow PartnerThis episode is presented by FTX. Trade on an awesome mobile interface fee-free, and still get all the great portfolio tracking features you know and love: https://uponly.tv/ftxShow NotesHow’d You Meet?– Coinbase pitched Sequoia– Fred pitched the basis of the metaverse on the blockchain when Matt was at Sequoia– Then Matt and Fred emailed back and forth, then the rest is history– This was 2017Metaverse– Fred: “People don’t yet realize that crypto is the metaverse”– It’s not just some VR world– Cobie: “How do you think this plays out over the next 15 to 20 years?”– Matt: “To state the obvious people are spending more time in these digital worlds. As people spend more time there they are also spending money”– Blockchain can enable property rights in the metaverseNext Levels of Crypto– Crypto will not be fully decentralized at every level that is the wrong way to think about it– Think gaming companies might be able to make the jump to crypto– Social media probably not– Matt: “all monarchies are dictatorships” (quoting someone else)– Network effects based businesses have a chicken and an egg problem– Overcoming is hard– Crypto presents the first real solve to potentially getting new network effectsPlay-to-earn– Play to earn has been around for a very long time– It’s just been under the table– Play to earn games present it in a transparent way with an open economy– People see work as purpose – this could fall into line with play to earn games– Cobie was skeptical, but what made it click for him was thinking about old Halo gameplay when he spent ages trying to earn a special helmet– Cobie bullish on interoperable assets for p2e gaming– Fred: “I played WoW for thousands of hours and all i cared about was how my character looked”– To the parents who always say you’re wasting your time playing video games – the founder of Paradigm did the same thing!– You can have multiple identities in the metaverseParadigm Now– In 2017 all the big internet companies had already be built– Crypto felt like the next frontier– Tried to make Paradigm a place where brilliant, curious people would want to spend their time– Didn’t care about roles just wanted the best talent– Talented young people are the people that actually create the future – 20yrs ago it was Goldman etc., 10 years ago it was Google etc., today it is crypto– FOLLOW THE TALENTED YOUNG PEOPLE– The quality of crypto investors has gone up– Crypto will be a powerful movement that takes over the worldHow to Keep Talent?– Help the most ambitious people keep building– Getting to work on multiple projects at once is very attractive– How many anons on Paradigm?– At least Samczsun and Hasu, another joining soonDeFi– Matt: “I think we’re super early. If we’re building a financial system from the ground up there is still so much left to build”– Cobie: “What takes us from 100Bs to multi-trillions?”– Matt: “I think it just takes time”– This is the progression of new tech– Institutions will like a middle man at first to help use– Ledger: “It reminds me of when elevators came out and there was an attendant just cause it made people feel safer”– Laughing thinking about Ledger being 190 years old and around when elevators came outSmartest Person Bearish Crypto?– Struggle to think of an example of someone who is very well informed and still bearish– Only people who are worried about regulation– Ledger: “What about Charlie Munger?”– Matt: “I mean he also missed the internet”– DUNK!New Paradigm $2.5B Fund– “We are looking at the growth over the next 10 years”– Trying to orient vision out there instead of shorter term– Cobie: “It makes it easier if you think in 10 years – if you’re thinking 10 years from now you might be seed investing in the main L1 today lol”– Fred: “We’re finally getting to a place where people can build and create mainstream applications with crypto”– Matt: “We are wired as humans to underestimate what exponential growth looks like”Future of Web3– Top level framing – there’s an iPhone bundling moment that’s happening with crypto– Fred: “The same way the iPhone put all mp3s, email, a telephone, etc into one thing, crypto is bundling all of your internet identity into your wallet”– Ledger: “Can we do this and maintain any type of financial or personal privacy?”– Fred: “Zero-Knowledge Proofs.”– Privacy will be really importantQuickfire QsPunks – overvalued vs. undervalued?– Fred: “So we don’t give out investment advice”Biggest mistake/ worst investment?– Prediction marketsHow to work for Paradigm?– Always interested in thoughtful/ energetic people– “Send us something cool you made on the internet”FINAL ALPHA– Matt: “It’s easy in life to sweat the small stuff. Zoom out and find the 1 or 2 things that really matter (for life, investing, etc). If you get those right everything else works out”– Fred: “All the people that do things that really matter think through things for themselves. They think from first principles and think what makes sense for them”Notes by KevinMusic by GiovanniPickle
Nov 18 2021
1 hr 33 mins
Looks Rare Episode 1: Art Blocks CTO & artist Jake Rockland (Purphat)Ari Paul of Blocktower on maximilism, decentralization, and investing
LinksTwitterShow PartnerThis episode is presented by FTX. Trade on an awesome mobile interface fee-free, and still get all the great portfolio tracking features you know and love: https://uponly.tv/ftxShow NotesIntroduction– Ari bought first Bitcoin in 2014– Really dove into crypto 2016– Friend emailed him in 2011 asking to check out crypto, Ari said it won’t retain value, not backed by guns like fiat– Ari: “For crypto you kinda gotta know a little bit about a lot of things”– Got involved with crypto through crypto twitter– Cunningham’s Law – “The fastest way to get an answer on the internet is not to ask a question, but to state something wrong”Ari’s Headspace– Long term mostly thinking about the future of crypto– BlockTower bets on where the world will be in 1-3 years, not 10-20 years– Fascinated by the big picture– Huge believer in giving people defensive tools for overbearing statesVC Stuff– BlockTower is a trading firm by nature, so they invest in projects that they can actually be power users in– Ari: “Evaluating seed stage teams is its own skillsets, very different from evaluating something like Microsoft”– Cobie skeptical of a16z’s success in crypto, followed like 4 deals they did and got crushed– A lot of the time, timing is much more important than vetting skill– Ari: “If you were trading NFTs 2 years ago, it almost doesn’t matter if you were good it just matters that you were doing it”Privacy– Ari: “There’s a whole tech stack for privacy that’s missing”– Countries can control the internet very easily– People think the internet is super hard to control – there is literally a bundle of wires that delivers the internet to an entire country– Ari: “zk-rollup chains where you can shield the mempool… there is some super cool math we’re building into the system now that could change everything”– You could fork Ethereum and add it as a rollup chain to Bitcoin– Ledger: “Is there really a market for that?”– Ari: “It seems likely in the next 2 years that we’ll get a soft fork to implement this”– Ari: “There are bitcoiners who are pitching this as humanitarian technology but against adding privacy technology that exists…borderline unethical”Making ETH Maxis Mad– Ethereum is a risky startup competing on tech– The odds it is a market leader in 10 years is under 20%– Facebook didn’t need a single Friendster user or dev– If you have an industry that’s going to 20x, you don’t need to take existing users– Ari: “Solana has something like more than 10,000 active developers now”– Ethereum does not have much of a moat, it has a little bit of brand recognition, a little bit of regulatory head start, some dev moat, but largely the moat is very small– Ethereum cannot move as fast, cannot take as much risk. It’s hard to maintain its lead– Cobie: “Do you think Ethereum should have a canary network, kind of like Kusama?”– Ari: “(pause) I actually haven’t thought about that”– Seems to be a real, good ideaSolana– Ari has been recommending Solana for the last 2 years– Well intentioned team, real project, very cool innovation at the communication layer– *Ari still has a long Solana position to be clear*– It’s quite centralized, depends on the team to stay up, has a real path to decentralization– It’s a highly speculative early stage betBNB– Exchange coins are basically sold as equities– There are tons of regulatory actions which could likely be negative for $BNB– Would not hold the coinCardano– Ari: “Cardano I actually know very little about”– The only thing he really believed would stick around for 5 years was Bitcoin, DeFi and NFTs– Ari: “I worry that in 5-10 years the winning metaverse will be Facebook or Fortnite, some centralized entity, which scares me because I want a decentralized world”– Ledger: “so Cardano” lol– Ari: “I am deeply skeptical of Cardano”– Ledger: “Dump it”2017 Bull Market– Ari bought $50k calls in 2017– Did it to maintain upside exposure while not keeping material risk on– Went onto CNBC to talk about it, they mid-curved his thinking– Ari: “Options are a bet on volatility, not the direction, because you can always hedge the direction with the underlying”– Ari: “If you can’t define skew and kurtosis then you probably shouldn’t be trading options”Crypto Investing– Ari: “If you’re investing with a lot of small bets in alts, it almost acts as a call option”– Ari thinks vol is about fair today– Basically every time Bitcoin vol gets below 60, Ari buys it– Ari: “The crazier the bull market the crazier the retrace”– Ari: “My basic thesis now is DeFi 5-10x’s here and then retraces 80-90%”– Ari: “The biggest value add from crypto over the next 12-18 months is connecting DeFi to real world lending”FINAL ALPHA– Ari: “It doesn’t matter how much money you make, if you don’t keep yourself healthy you won’t enjoy it”– Focus on your health!Notes by KevinMusic by GiovanniPickle
Oct 14 2021
2 hrs 7 mins
Tokenomics and Ecosystem Growth with Tom Schmidt of Dragonfly
LinksTwitterWebShow PartnerThis episode is presented by FTX. Trade on an awesome mobile interface fee-free, and still get all the great portfolio tracking features you know and love: https://uponly.tv/ftxShow NotesTom Intro ⁃ Partner at Dragonfly Capital (@dragonfly_cap) ⁃ Owner of elusive Gauntlet x Nike hoodie ⁃ Formerly product at 0x and PM at InstagramDragonfly Capital & Tokenomics ⁃ East/West focus. Crypto is very different from Web2 in that you can’t really launch locally, you’re global from day 1. Dragonfly help bridge the East/West gap for teams and products ⁃ 2019 was harder to do deals remotely, people would meet snd pitch in person. Not really a thing anymore – your reputation precedes you online ⁃ Day to day work is 25% team calls, 25% portfolio support, 20% research and staying on top of what’s going on in the space ⁃ Cobie: How much of your previous product experience has helped in your VC Role? Tom: It was a bit of learning curve from IG to 0x. A lot translates over but the token aspect changes how you think about product, it can be the growth mechanic, the same product but with different tokenomics can have a huge difference in outcome ⁃ Cobie: Even having a token as a defence mechanism is a requirement now ⁃ Tom: Prefer the method of building a great and sticky product then adding the token on top of that otherwise you run into leaky bucket theory once the incentives run out ⁃ Dislikes revenue to token holders early on, ideally it should be used to make the product better and grow but treasuries have gotten so big that teams probably don’t know how to spend itAirdrops & Sybil Attacks ⁃ Divergence Ventures farmed 10% of RBN airdrop ⁃ Returned following being found out and the following drama ⁃ Tom farmed it personally long before the airdrop email, continued to farm after that point and so has since voluntarily returned all farmed RBN from his account ⁃ An individual exploiting via sybil isn’t as bad as an investor that then also dumps day one ⁃ Teams are experimenting with different ways to achieve fair distribution but there’s still a lot to work out, it’s a really interesting design space ⁃ Need to hold people to a high standard to self-regulate in the industryTrends in the next 6-18months? ⁃ Product structure ⁃ Derivative products ⁃ DAOs & DAO toolingEthereum Scaling ⁃ ZK-rollup maximalist ⁃ For some applications and purposes even the rollup won’t be cheap enough and so maybe there will be room for other chains ⁃ You can also rollup a rollup e.g. Mina. Cobie: “Inception was a warning, don’t go too many rollup’s deep or you’ll get stuck there forever” ⁃ Heterogeneous blockchain future but unsure what path it will take ⁃ Cobie: Should L2s have tokens? Tom: Decentralising the L2 could rely on having a token and also it’s a case of trying to protect against forking or a competitor ⁃ There will be a fee for L2s but unsure who will pay it, token holders, users, maybe the L1? ⁃ Solana has been surprising with the amount of developer activity happening there ⁃ Cobie: When chains are EVM compatible you get a lot of copy-paste projects to grab money over and over. Potentially means that the teams are less sticky, opportunity over legitimate drive. Solana is more novel, the product designs maybe aren’t all novel but there’s a lot of work there being done to make things sticky. Those ecosystems that do that are much more likely to perform in the next cycleWhy won’t my 0x go up? (– Ledger) ⁃ It’s structured as a gas rebate which doesn’t really scale proportionately to the size of a trade ⁃ Reworking a token is a sensitive topic ⁃ 0x we’re extremely early on a lot of things like governanceBitcoin Projects? ⁃ Lightning network seems like a real path forward for Bitcoin, they’re building a real developer network ⁃ It’s not incentivised the demand to use it is natural either by need or by people who love BitcoinWorking in Crypto? ⁃ It’s a great time to be a founder, raising funds is super competitive right now ⁃ Passion about the space and research is desired when hiring ⁃ Crypto is much more exciting and intellectually interesting than traditional tech jobs ⁃ Taipei is a solid place for crypto in Asia alongside Singapore⁃ 2017-2019 had SF as a central crypto hub but it’s not really the case anymore and teams are becoming more geographically spread outFinal Alpha ⁃ Invest for strength, not for a lack of weakness ⁃ Focus on your sleep and getting high quality sleepNotes by LukeMusic by GiovanniPickle
Oct 12 2021
2 hrs 8 mins
Path on NFTs, the metaverse and crypto cycle price predictions
LinksTwitterShow PartnerThis episode is presented by FTX. Trade on an awesome mobile interface fee-free, and still get all the great portfolio tracking features you know and love: https://uponly.tv/ftxShow NotesIntroduction– Path has never had a job– Ledger: “You basically went from being a child, to retired”– Ledge wants to bring Teen Executive back on to teach him a lesson– Path bought Bitcoin on the run up in 2013 around $100– Went to $250 then dropped to $50 in 3 days– Largest red candle ever? 80%?2014 Alt Coins– Feathercoin, BlackCoin– Ledger bought BlackCoin in 2017 lmao– BlackCoin was the best pump cause it ripped like 10x, then WhiteCoin pumped right after– Do not hold something longer than the 1st pumpPath’s Convictions– Had a lot of ETH back in the day but sold early– Then built a large position in the 2019 bear market– Path: “High fees are bullish”– For Ethereum, you’re paying for the security– A lot of volume will shift to layer 2 in the coming yearsZcash– Path was high conviction ZEC early on– It has really been down only since then– Zooko (Zcash creator) mentioned in the white paper– Military very interested in Zk-SNARKs– for 60 IQ newbs, Zk-SNARK = Zero-Knowledge Succinct Non-Interactive Argument of KnowledgeTezos– Path fudded Tezos a bit for NFTs back in May– The founder quote-tweeted him and got pissed– Path: “Tezos as an investment isn’t great really”– Path: “Tezos is definitely the second best chain for NFTs after ETH”– Chat: “How can you say Tezos is the second best NFT chain when Solana exists?”– Path: “Tezos has actual art!” he likes the artNFTs– CryptoKitties took off 2017 peaks– Rare Pepes were even before that– CryptoPunks prob still a great buy– Axie Infinity is paying people more than minimum wage in their countries– Path: “Axie Infinity is only the first one of these metaverse games”– Path: “Save your money and wait for the big collections to come along”– Path: “Eventually all artists will come to NFTs, even if they hate it now”– 1/1s have performed very well– MekaVerse is the biggest NFT drop maybe ever, comes out in 45 minNFD– Path fractionalized the fiesty DOGE picture– Now has a market cap of 8,700 ETH ($31M)    – that’s a very profitable day– PleasrDAO fractionalized the original DOGE picture– Bought for $4M, now worth $250M– Cobie: “Why is dog money a thing at all?”– It shows that memes have real valuePath soothingly talking and Ledger casually charting in the backgroundCobie: “It’s pretty cool how Sam is the richest person under 30 and he just replies to your DMs and tweets”Trading– Cobie: “Do you still trade or are you just a collectooor?”– Path: “I’ve been trading still, mostly NFTs”– Still likes Bitcoin, longer ETH– ETH will go sideways before $4k, then in a month or two you lever up on a dip and watch it rip– Bitcoin probably runs first, then others after– Path: “ETH chart looks good… going to $20k easy”– Path: “This is the supercycle I don’t think these bleed out anymore”Urbit– Been in development since 2002– Your ID is locked to a planet or star– You can buy planets, stars, and galaxies– It’s all about decentralizing everything and not being at the mercy of Microsoft or Apple or anything– Path: “It’s a great idea, it’s a really interesting idea”– Path: “This is the next big thing after NFTs and metaverse and stuff, you guys will be on this in like 5 years”Asset Name TopsBitcoin – $250kEthereum – $80kSolana – $500Cardano – $20Chainlink – $400Zcash – $5000LUNA – isn’t that a stablecoin?AAVE – $1000BNB – $2000FTT – $300TSLA – $0GME – $1000UK Gas Prices – ???Floor Punk – 300-400 ETHXTZ – $50XRP – $3Other Chat Questions– The land produces Axies and Axies themselves are yield generating so its like a double– AVAX is good but you’re getting dumped on by funds– Honoraries are given to be sold– OpenSea will likely do a tokenFINAL ALPHA– Path: “Just be yourself”– Cobie: “What about if you suck?”– Path: “Get better”Notes by KevinMusic by GiovanniPickle
Oct 8 2021
2 hrs 10 mins