In this episode, the ReSolve team delves deep into the challenges and emotional rollercoaster associated with trend following amid an uncertain market environment. They discuss an array of topics, including:  • The impact of Jerome Powell's recent statement on interest rates and its implications for market participants  • The role of central bank policies on systematic investment strategies  • The lack of clear trends, economic trajectories, and market signals in today's financial landscape  • The importance of maintaining small positions and staying prudent in turbulent times  • Potential shifts in the market and what investors should watch for  • The role of investor psychology in trend following and how to manage emotions during market turbulence  • The importance of diversification and its benefits in navigating uncertain markets  • The effects of market noise on trend following strategies and how to filter relevant information  • The potential benefits and risks of leveraging systematic signals in the current market environment  • The role of risk management and position sizing in trend following strategies  • The impact of behavioral biases on decision-making and portfolio management  • The team's thoughts on future trends and potential market opportunities This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in trend following, market volatility, and the challenges of investing in today's uncertain environment, providing valuable insights and strategies to navigate these complex markets. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.   *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

In this episode, Adam, Rod and Mike review a new whitepaper called Peering Around Corners: How to Replicate Trend Following Managed Futures. They cover the motivation, methods, analysis and conclusions including: ·       why managed futures produce strong returns ·       the role of managed futures in a stock / bond portfolio ·       why every strategy is vulnerable to lost decades, and the role of diversification ·       why investors probably shouldn’t be worried about flows to managed futures ·       why replication does not negate the presence of manager alpha ·       how replication is related to returns based style analysis ·       how other authors replicated Buffet’s alpha and how it relates ·       why one might want to replicate a managed futures index ·       choice of simple vs complex replication methods ·       top down replication methods - pros and cons ·       bottom up replication methods - pros and cons ·       why top down and bottom up replication complement each other’s strengths and weaknesses ·       how well a combination of top down and bottom up replicates the trend following index ·       why investors might expect to achieve fee alpha from managed futures replication ·       and much more… This discussion of a new whitepaper should help investors understand how replication strategies work and the role that a managed futures replication strategy might play in portfolios. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.   *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

In this episode, Adam, Rod, Mike and Richard review the topics covered in the ReSolve Masterclass podcast series and offer context and updates in response to the 2022 investment experience. Specifically, they cover: • Why asset allocation is more important than security selection • How diversifying globally can help to reduce risk • How to triangulate on the outcome of asset classes by drawing from multiple perspectives and sources                     of information • How to think about long-lived assets and how that changes your mindset when you're thinking about investments • How to steward long-lived wealth and make decisions based on preparation rather than prediction • How to balance and rebalance a portfolio • How to think about alpha and tail protection • How to put it all together in an investment framework • How to analyze investment performance over different economic cycles and regimes • How to use a systematic process to select the group of assets and the weights of those assets and how often to rebalance them in a portfolio • How to use systematic investing to analyze investment performance over many decades and different economic cycles and regimes ·       And much more…   This update of the ReSolve Masterclass series is essential listening for anyone who wondered how the concepts and methods held up in an inflationary environment and is curious about what to expect going forward. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.   *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority

In this episode, our guest Jerry Parker, founder and CEO of Chesapeake Capital, a global systematic trend-following investment manager, shares his insights on: His journey from being a student of legendary trader Richard Dennis to running his own trend-following fund The importance of sticking to a disciplined process despite market noise Why trend following is the ultimate solution for diversifying portfolios How to navigate compliance hurdles and get exposure to trend following strategies The potential benefits of maximizing convexity in a portfolio How to create the perfect standalone portfolio that doesn't rely on passive indexes The role of education versus pain and reward in motivating change and decision-making Jerry's approach to risk management and how it can lead to both serious strategies and potential profits The vast potential of ETFs in providing access to more markets And so much more This is a fascinating and informative episode for anyone interested in trend following, portfolio diversification, and risk management in today's markets.   This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.   *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

Our guest this week was Jeremy Schwartz, Global CIO of WisdomTree ETFs, a global ETF manager with over $70 billion in AUM. Our conversation covered: Why it is important to consider refinancing your house at a lower interest rate and to move your excess cash to higher-yielding accountsHow managing your savings has become more crucial in the current low interest rate environmentWhy your checking account is costing you money and what you can do to avoid itHow the recent surge in money supply and inflationary pressures may impact the economy and investmentsWhy there is still a structural shift in the labor market and how it could affect real wagesHow the divergence between equities and rates markets may impact investors and the Fed's policiesWhy it is important to diversify your equity portfolio with lower duration, higher quality and lower valuation companiesHow alternatives and inflation hedges can play a significant role in asset allocation and provide return stacking opportunitiesWhy commodities can be a useful diversifier to stocks and bonds, particularly in an inflationary environmentHow passive commodity exposure can act as a direct hedge against inflationary environments and provide balance to a portfolioWhy investors should consider a stock-bond capital efficient portfolio, and how does it work? Why is a leveraged 60-40 portfolio a good combination for taxable investors, and why did WisdomTree choose equity underlying and futures on top of it for a leveraged 60-40 position How investors can outperform cash with a third of the portfolio that is available for investment in diversifiers, and what are some examples of diversifiers How adding managed futures to a stock-bond portfolio provides diversification and protection during inflationary shocks What companies are under the hood of an AI portfolio, and how are they selected   And much more. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

Adam and Rodrigo had the opportunity to chat with engineer and business owner Alonso Gonzalez about his upcoming book, and in particular his research on the transition from a dirty, inefficient fossil fuel economy predicated on scarce energy to a new energy economy founded on effectively infinite, distributed clean energy from the sun.   Alonso shared a presentation that introduced a variety of novel concepts and assertions that makes a compelling case for a complete overhaul of earth’s energy sources and infrastructure, much of which will be quite noticeable and impactful within the next five to seven years. Topics covered include:   Impacts of the exponential age of knowledgeMegatrends of energy abundance and digitizationUncertainty as the source of anxietyFrom linear to exponential growth and how the past is no longer useful in understanding the futureDifference between innovation and disruption and the phases and timeline of disruptionUnderstanding general terms about energyUnderstanding current energy production and consumption Visualizing a chronological road map of the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy in the near futureConsequences of energy abundance   We hope you enjoy our conversation with Alonso Gonzalez!   Hosted by Adam Butler and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global*   *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

This week we welcomed back Andy Constan (CEO / CIO of Damped Spring Advisors) and thought-provoking commentator on financial markets. His deep understanding of the global macro landscape and structure of markets, as always, made for a fascinating conversation that covered: A disciple of two completely different and complimentary schools of global macro excellenceNavigating his portfolio in 2022 through the Twitter looking glassListening between the lines and hearing the drumbeat of quantitative tightening (QT) early onIn the old days, understanding inflation and growth was enough for capital allocationThe game is now mostly about policymakers’ toolkit, stimuli, and their impact on flowsThe driving force of equity derivatives and their huge impact in the second half of last yearUnder normal circumstances, commercial banks account for the lion’s share of money creation and liquidityIssuance, roll-offs, and duration management – the mechanics behind the Fed’s balance sheetCredit and leverage as a function of banks’ ability and willingness to expand their own balance sheetsThe role of duration in the Fed’s balance sheet activityWhy Japan, the original QE trailblazer, was ineffective in its efforts to support asset prices for many yearsCompression of risk premia, asset inflation, and a weak transmission mechanism towards wealth effects and increased consumptionValuation multiples as the inverse of risk premiaMultiples expansion as the primary mechanism for QE-driven asset bubblesDebt monetization as the medium-term bogey on the radarHow the Fed relinquished control of QT duration to the TreasuryAnd so much more This is “ReSolve Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.   *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

Our guest this week was David Cervantes, founder of Pine Brook Capital Management. With a rich and diverse background within the investment industry, in the last few years David has dedicated his time to managing his family office and has been developing a macroeconomic framework that considers the objectives and incentives of policymakers as the primary economic drivers. Our conversation included topics such as: Empirical economic analyses and insights from the ‘school of hard knocks’Fundamentally, a process of elimination – determining first what not to doLess theory, more dataWhere his approach materially diverges from traditional economicsCognitive Perspective – treating models with respect, but never reverenceMacroeconomics is basically ‘political economy in drag’A dynamic process of incentives and decisions made by political actorsThe role of ‘timing luck’ (or misfortune)A stroll down history lane – from WWII and the Great Society to the presentA closer look at the gargantuan US federal budget deficitCurrent backdrop – an ‘inflationary supernova’ fueled by fiscal impulseThe Fed’s current reaction functionHome prices, OER and how they affect CPIWhy interest rate volatility matters significantly more than absolute levelsHow interest rate vol spills over into the risk premia continuumAnd much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.   *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

This week we had the pleasure of speaking with Bob Elliot (who can be found on Twitter @BobEUnlimited), CIO at Unlimited, a new investment firm that launched a hedge fund replication strategy in ETF format. Our conversation included: Bob’s career and especially his years at Bridgewater AssociatesThe synergies between macro research and systematic investingSystems that create discipline and leverage (the non-financial kind)A better sense-making process within an investment frameworkWhy most intuitions are inaccurateIdentifying inconsistencies between one’s framework and new dataHow the signaling power and precision of any variable can change over timeDealing with the scarcity of macro data points within a systematic approachWhy there is no such thing as a single most important variable in macro investingNo certainty, just a probabilistic range of outcomesWhy diversification is one of the fundamental laws of asset managementThe importance of maximizing the number of independent bets in low signal-to-noise domainsWhy the starting point for Bob’s personal portfolio is Risk ParityThe folly of singularly focusing on the S&P500Avoid going “all-in” into any single scenario, no matter how compelling the narrativeAnd so much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.   *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

For the opening episode of the new year we had the pleasure of speaking with Aahan Menon, founder and CEO of Prometheus Research, which seeks to democratize access to elite financial research to the general public. This great conversation covered several topics, including: A macro framework focused on the interplay between the real and financial economies, and the business cycleThe main driving forces in markets and the economy: growth, inflation and liquidityKey variables for measuring liquidityCreating the condition for potential asymmetric returnsHow the increase in the stock of assets facilitates other activitiesThe original aim of quantitative easingThe contest between the ‘Dot Plot’ and the yield curveThe signaling mechanism of price levelsThe biases and shortcomings of the CPICyclical vs secular inflationHow economies have evolved in the last few decadesWhy inflation volatility may be asymmetricThe false diversification of the 60/40Why increased uncertainty usually signals a turning pointUpdating priors – a ‘burden of evidence’ approachFluctuating edges and the challenges of volatility targetingAnd much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.   *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

Our guest this week was Dr. Andrew Butler, Chief Investment Officer here at ReSolve. He has an Honors B.Sc. in Applied Mathematics & Physics from Memorial University, an M.A. in Applied Mathematics & Statistics, Financial Engineering from York University, and a PhD from the University of Toronto, Department of Mechanical & Industrial Engineering. Our conversation covered:   Mentors, studying optimization, machine learning and emulating similaritiesComparing methodologies used in calculating oil reserves, with empirical financeMathematics, known truths, soft axioms and assumptionsData science, tools and hypothesis tests in financeComparing the definitions of “noise” and different scientific methodsRegression types, relationships and featuresExisting models vs creating models with dataHyperparameters, universes, good decision-making and edgesThe fallacy of “The Efficient Frontier” in Modern Portfolio TheoryMethods that make for good choices, and setting expectationsNeural Networks, financial data extraction and optimization scienceBuilding complex models, integrating and optimizing predictions, and making decisionsCounterintuitive predictions and “explainability” – integrated vs optimized modelsOptimizing for decision accuracy by minimizing prediction errorUsing Decision Trees, Ensembles and BoostingMarket data and making predictions using de-coupled vs integrated approachesTraining models and optimizing, going forwardOptimal covariance shrinkage and minimizing errorConstrained vs unconstrained mean variance portfolios, de-coupled vs integrated, in a managed futures contextThe effect of constraints in limiting models from being “different”The practical takeaways about integrated solutions for Advisors and Portfolio ManagersThe value of humility in optimizing for financial markets – knowledge, wisdom and experienceStochastic dominance vs t-testsTime horizons – size mattersThe Consultant Industry – monthly data vs understanding processAnd much more   This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.   *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

Our guest this week was Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at Stonex. StoneX (formerly known as INTL FCStone) is an institutional-grade financial services network that connects companies, organizations, traders and investors to the global markets ecosystem through a unique blend of digital platforms, end-to-end clearing and execution services, high-touch service and deep expertise. Our conversation covered:   Comparing the narratives from other allocatorsIs the Fed Pivot here now and will there be a soft landingThe rise of structural inflation since before COVID and where will it settleWhy the Fed is attempting to show that it “tried”Underestimating the strength of the economyAccepting that Growth, Austerity or Inflation are the solutionsHow China saved the FedBubbles of Bubbles and Ponzi schemes vs fundamentally driven growthShifting from monetary to fiscal dominanceThe effects of automation on labor requirementsIrrational American optimism vs European pessimismPolitical influences on monetary policy and the challenges of “onshoring”Adjusting the price, not the quantityThe effects of the rates of changeThe possibility of equities and bonds returning to normal correlationsPension funds, interest rates, central banks and commoditiesThe importance of diversified portfolios with sophisticated hedgesAnd much more   This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.   *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

Our guest this week was Bradley Barrie, president and CEO of Dynamic Alpha Solution, a firm that is reshaping the way US advisors think about asset allocation through their multi-dimensional framework. Our conversation covered: His early career and almost becoming a math teacherEmbracing difference and uniqueness from the very beginningThe barren landscape for alternative strategies in the 1990sStyle drift and closet indexersFalse diversificationDefining Multi-Dimensional Asset AllocationStructural diversification and pairing complimentary stylesOutsourced CIO tailored for financial advisorsRecognizing the importance of investor psychologySmoothing out the path for portfolios as the ultimate objectiveThe three Ps of qualitative analysisSharpe vs SortinoAnd much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.   *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

Alfonso – also known as MacroAlf – joined Adam and Mike to discuss his most recent report entitled “Yes, But When Recession?” Our conversation covered: Alf’s experience managing a $20B multi-asset book at a global bankExperience launching an independent macro newsletter for greater freedom of viewsBenefits of interacting with central bankers, regulators and senior officials at the bankCurrently focused on recession – when and how bad will it be?Economic, social and market impacts of recessionsHow recession might change the Fed’s reaction functionPowell and other central bankers questioning the benefits of QE and whether Fed may have a different reaction function this timeExploring the pros and cons of QEWhy banks lend, and why they didn’t want to lend over the past decade of QE?Powell’s focus on Volcker and implications for policy trajectoryExpectations for a second leg down and the 2000 – 2002 analogWhat happens in bear markets after Fed pivots?Prospects for a longer, grinding bear marketImpact of high returns on cash competing with low returns on real estate and other risk assetsCharacter of stock market bottoms in a cyclical downturnMarket indicators of recession and inflation risk using Alf’s Volatility Adjusted Market DashboardNegative credit impulse signaling recession in Q2 2023Impact of rate of change vs level of credit given enormous surge in bank reserves in 2020Leading indicators suggesting recession in late Q2 2023Housing market and Sahm Rule implying recession in Q2 2023Expectations for returns on stocks, bonds and other assets over the next several years *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

Our guest this week was Mark Yusko, founder, chief investment officer and managing director of Morgan Creek Capital Management. With deep experience in both digital assets and traditional finance, Mark took us on a rollercoaster as we dissected the recent turmoil affecting the ‘crypto-verse’. Topics included: A post-mortem of the FTX debacle – an evolving situation with many missing piecesThe sequence of events that led to the debacleWhy Mark passed on the opportunity to invest… three timesUseful idiots? Conspiracy theories versus actual conspiraciesYou can’t ban a decentralized system, but you ‘assassinate its character’The due diligence failure of high-profile capital allocatorsFiduciary responsibility gone awryParallels with other frauds and charactersAn analogy between digital assets and the Eurodollar systemBitcoin as the base layer of a future monetary systemDisplacing trust with truthInnovation – why timing is keyExciting ventures and projects for the coming yearsWith every investment we get richer or wiser… never bothAnd much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.   *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

It was our great privilege to welcome Mark Rzepczynski this week. Mark has over 25 years of experience in financial markets, is a former finance professor and writes frequently about global markets and quantitative investing. Our conversation covered: His early years, ‘forged in the chaos of the trading pits’Pursuing a PhD and recognizing a career in research was not for himWorking for John Henry – an apprenticeship in trend followingFinding one’s comparative advantage and sticking to itWhy trend following had a bad reputation when the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) was still regarded as the law of the landTrend following as the first derivative of the EMHUnderstanding how markets actually behave, as opposed to how they shouldPrices are primalUncertainty as the gap between what you don’t know and what you should knowThe interplay between price action and narrativeSpecialists can be tremendously myopic, while trend followers seek to be the ultimate, rules-based generalistsBlack Box vs Glass BoxTrend following as a signal to noise problemThe dirty secret of trend-following – when most of the money is actually madeAnd much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.   *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

We have been eagerly waiting for this one for a while! Our friend Mike Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager at Simplify Asset Management, returned to the podcast this week. Always thought-provoking, Mike journeyed with us through a wide range of topics that included: Why the enthusiasm for central bank intervention is so asymmetricOptions trading and the wild swings in Zero Days to Expiration Options (0DTE)Statistical anomalies in the labor marketThe primary drivers of inflation in the 1970sA comparison between Volcker and PowellMonetary policy as a blunt tool and powerful opioid – numbing investors and delaying reformsTax arbitrage by big corporations and why they must endA path to political moderation in the USWhy tighter monetary policy may be the wrong policy right nowA criticism of the Fed – authority, legitimacy, and reachReasons for underinvestment in US energy productionWhy the capital allocation process in the US economy is largely brokenAn update on the recent dynamics of passive investment vehiclesHome ownership, nimbyism, and affordabilityThe importance of the Minsky Framework for the current environment“If you’re not doing macro, macro is doing you”And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.   *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

It was our great pleasure to welcome back Cem Karsan (also known as @jam_croissant on Twitter), Founder and Sr. Managing Partner at Kai Volatility Advisors. This deeply insightful conversation included topics such as: A recap of the last few months in equity marketsVolume-weighted time and why seasonality matters more than most people knowThe acceleration of gamma, vanna and charm – a dangerous time to be short equitiesDealer positioning as a major gravitational force in markets, often overlookedThe ‘game of chicken’ played between speculators, hedgers and market makersLess ‘put hedging’ begets the currently very low skew observedWhy the first and last two weeks of a year are so importantThe large impact of retail speculative activity and challenges to market makersHouseholds still sitting on very large excess savings, which is often making its way into equity marketsBuy the dip – investors’ conditioning over the last 40 yearsThe risk of another lost decade for equity investorsMillennials vs Boomers – a generational tussleWhy the American dream has become increasingly unattainable to mostAnd much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.   *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

Our guest this week was Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, an investment research firm focused on macroeconomics. Our conversation covered topics including: How higher inflation leads to higher inflation volatility and increased risk premiaThe core drivers of inflation and where the data currently pointsComplacency followed by overshooting – the central bank dichotomyDon’t count on a pivot anytime soon – why Powell is determined to “break things”An uncomfortable trade-off – under inflation, central banks can have price or financial stability, not bothSigns the US economy is still firing on all cylindersStrong balance sheets and perhaps the strongest labor market in living memoryWhy cash has once again taken the throneThe demise of the 60/40 portfolioEnergy markets dynamics – from geopolitics to ESGWhy a structural undersupply of labor reduces the probability of a recessionThe dysfunctional combination of tighter monetary and looser fiscal policiesAnd much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.   *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

Wade Pfau is Professor of Retirement Income at The American College and has published several books on retirement, most recently The Retirement Planning Guidebook: Navigating The Important Decisions For Retirement Success. He joined us for an awesome discussion that included: The drawbacks of privatized retirement plansWhy longevity pooling is so importantTrade-offs between defined benefits and defined contribution plansVarying incentives across countriesHow different systems can withstand long-term shocksPath dependency, sequence of returns and the most crucial period for a retirement portfolioMotivations for writing his latest book and debunking retirement mythsSafety First vs Probability FirstOptionality vs CommitmentDifferent profiles and preferences, and a framework to accommodate them allA controversial take on the importance of asset allocationWhy a 4% withdrawal rate is the least efficient approachNavigating the tax mazeAnd much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.   *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.