Aug 29 2022
412: Housing Crash Imminent? and 18 Life Lessons
“How long are you going to wait until you demand the best from yourself?” -Epictetus I share 18 lessons with my 18-year-old self. #2 is: Don’t fear being different. That’s your advantage. #4 is: No one cares about your college grades. #14 is: Finding the truth is more important than being right. #17 is: What does life want from you? National median home prices eased from June to July—from $414K to $404K. Homebuilders are in a recession. However, available housing supply is still low and demand is high. Almost every human is forgotten in four generations. Is a housing price crash imminent? You get a clear “yes” or “no” answer. The NAR says that today’s first-time homebuyer is: 33 years old (oldest ever), $86,500 household income, $252K median purchase price, 7% down payment, and 37% carry student debt. Average size is 1,640 sf. If you’d like to advertise with us, visit: GetRichEducation.com/Contact Resources mentioned: Show Notes: www.GetRichEducation.com/412 Median sale price eases: Median US house price historic chart: Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com JWB’s available Florida income property: www.jwbrealestate.com/gre or (904) 677-6777 To learn more about eQRPs: text “GRE” to 307-213-3475 or: eQRP.co Available Central Florida new-build income properties: www.b2rdirect.com Analyze your RE portfolio at: (use code “GRE”): MyPropertyStats.com Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our free, wealth-building “Don’t Quit Your Daydream Letter”: www.GetRichEducation.com/Letter Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith’s personal Instagram: @keithweinhold Today’s episode transcript: Welcome to GRE! I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. Learn 18 profound life lessons I’ve learned that I wish I could share with my 18-year-old self… and… has the time come? After the looong & sometimes steep housing price runup, is a housing price crash finally imminent? And what’s the future direction of the housing market? Today, on Get Rich Education. ___________________ Welcome to GRE! From Red Deer, Alberta to Red Rock State Park, AZ and across 188 nations worldwide… I’m Keith Weinhold. THIS is Get Rich Education. The voice of real estate investing… 412 weeks in a row… since 2014. I hope that you’re having a great week! You know, I have seemingly been a late bloomer in almost every way in life that you can conceive. But as some say, “many people never bloom at all”. Alright, well enough. But look… I was almost 18 years old when I graduated high school, just like - perhaps you - and many people are. But I looked like I was 13 then. I was among the very last in my class to experience puberty there at Coudersport High School, Pennsylvania. This is one reason that I could not attract a high school girlfriend or get a prom date. Even though… I asked a girl to prom and she said “no”. As underdeveloped and impressionable as I was then, here are 18 lessons that I want to share with my 18-year-old self. I wish that I could share these lessons that I’ve learned now with my 18-year-old self: You Know Nothing. But You're Not Alone. You have so much to learn, 18-year-old Keith. So don't act like you know it all. Society actually likes when you're genuinely inquisitive and want to learn. What about you? Can’t you sense when someone acts like a know-it-all? It’s not something that you want to be around. Back to advising my 18-year-old self. Don't Fear Being Different. That's Your Advantage. In high school and even college, winners fit in. In the real world, winners stand out. In fact, avoid normalcy. It's a synonym for mediocrity. Work To Learn. After that, work to earn. No One Cares About Your College Grades. For your interests, college is optional, not mandatory—regardless of what your friends are doing. Find an energy for learning. Be autodidactic (an autodidact means a self-taught person). Focus on becoming a person of value. Keep Moving. Health is wealth. Prioritize physical exercise over moneymaking. No matter WHAT you choose to do, you'll be living inside that same body when you're age 100. Failure Can Be Alright, Even Good. In school, you learned that mistakes are bad and should be avoided. A failure that you recuperate from demonstrates that you tried. You learned a lesson. In fact, DECORATE your failures so much that you should go ahead and tell others how bad you failed; they'll either relate to you or they’ll learn from you. Don't Follow Paths Others Have Made. Others guide you. But create your own map. If you're soullessly trading your time for dollars at a job, you need to design yourself an escape route so that you can quit as soon as possible. If you’re selling your time that way - stop it. Your life is made up of chapters of time. This is not a dress rehearsal. This is your life. Research, Commit, Then Be Consistent. Prepare for disappointment. Most people won't be as committed as you. Showing up on time is a commitment, so is marriage. Learn About Investing In Real Estate. Everyone needs it. It's made more ordinary people wealthy than anything else. Keep Real Estate And Emotions Separate. Facts trump feelings. It's 99% about: market, management, and income exceeding expenses. Make Grandma Proud. Pretend that she's watching you. Live a life that's exemplary in what you say and do. You might remember me mentioning my late Grandma Weinhold here on the show. Be Present. Don't over-anticipate future moments and events. They are less important than the present. Otherwise, you'll miss out on your entire life. Your life will never not be now. Appreciate "now". Who Your Friends Are Matters. Jim Rohn said: "You are the average of the five people that you spend the most time with." Take the average of your closest five's: values, their athleticism, their ethics, wealth, fashion sense, travel, neighborhood quality, and family structure—that's nearly who you will BECOME. Finding The Truth Is More Important Than Being Right. People respect you when you say: "I was wrong. Here's why." more than trying to defend some antiquated or faulty belief. Give. Money is an abundant resource. You will have a great ability to give. Generosity is championed in the Bible. It's Aristotle's third virtue. It will make you feel happy, it's good for your health, contagious, and spurs gratitude. This ossifies your net "value add" to the world. Mentors Matter. Others see you in a way that you cannot. You'll simply never be able to see yourself in a way that others can. You’ll meet people smarter than you; ask them for their help. What Does Life Want From You? As I learned from Eckhart Tolle, don't ask: "What do I want from life?" A more powerful question is: "What does life want from me?" (And you’ll remember that I mentioned this one last week on the show here and took a deeper dive on it.) And the 18th and final lesson that I’d like to go back and share with my 18-year-old self is… Build. Anthropologists suggest that almost every person is forgotten after three generations. At your trajectory, what will your legacy be? Why and how will you be remembered? They are the 18 lessons. The stoic Epictetus said one of the most profound motivational things ever… and it’s in the form of a question. Epictetus said: "How long are you going to wait before you demand the best for yourself?" Yeah, that is his question. At least here on this Earth, this is your last life ever. Now, as much as some of those 18 might resonate with you… and maybe you want to share those with someone in your life… I’ve seriously got to ask… (Laugh) If I had read those as an 18-year-old, knowing that I wrote them a couple decades later, would I have ever listened to those as an 18-year-old? I don’t know. I probably wouldn’t have changed my behavior on some of them… but a few. I’ve also got to wonder, in another 20 years, will these change? 20 years from now, would I be advising my 18-year-old self any differently? Now, I discussed in there how anthropologists suggest that most every human is forgotten in 3 to 4 generations. Sadly, quite a few people are forgotten 3 to 4 minutes after their death. And many more, within 3 to 4 hours, 3 to 4 days, or 3 to 4 weeks after their death. Of course, your children will remember you longer, and your spouse of, say, 50 years will remember you longer. Realistically, LOTS of people are soon forgotten because they never did anything worth remembering. Good people are forgotten. People that never caused any trouble or uproar. They kept their lawns mowed. They kept their cars clean. But nothing notable worth remembering, like caring for lost animals or handicapped children or always remembering their friends’ birthdays. For a thoughtful person, it is wise to consider from time to time “what have I done recently, that people will want to remember?”. Of course, we should all do every day all those things necessary to be a good neighbor, a good landlord, and a good citizen. If you don’t do that, you may be remembered because you were such a slob, or took care of your house so badly, or didn’t bother to shave and shower regularly. But assuming you are doing everything so that absolutely no one will be offended or annoyed, then you have to do something special if you are going to be remembered for longer than a few days or a few weeks. Let’s recognize something. Abraham Lincoln died six or seven generations ago. He is remembered with respect and honor. John Wilkes Booth died just a few days after Lincoln. He is remembered with scorn and despising. So it is a mixed blessing, for you to be remembered. For most people, they would prefer to be forgotten rather than remembered as a deviant or a monster or a social parasite. My own guess is that VERY FEW people are remembered well, for as long as four generations. They may be listed in a family genealogy, but beyond being a statistical item, the individuals and who they are have been long forgotten. It’s been said that "The greatest waste in the world is the difference between who you are and who you could become." Now, be real with me. Is what I’m telling you making you pensive and even melancholy about your own mortality? How do you feel… in your heart… right now? How do you feel… in your stomach… right now? What’s your mind telling you here? Cheer up a little. I want you to take some solace in the fact that… I believe there are more important things than for you to be REMEMBERED for decades and for generations. But doing those more important things — helping other people, making a better world, advancing the store of useful knowledge — will usually lead to YOU being remembered, long after you have passed into your next life. That is probably the person that you strive to be here on Earth… after all. If you’re still feeling like you’re not enough… well… I don’t have all of the answers. But you just got 18 lessons so that you can listen to those again and see which ones fit into your life. I’ll be back with some GRE core content about real estate and a housing price crash. I’m Keith Weinhold. You are listening to Get… Rich… Education. _________________ You’re listening to one of America’s longest-running and most listened-to real estate shows. Welcome back to GRE. I’m your host and my name is Keith Weinhold. I am genuinely grateful for your listenership. There will only ever be one Episode 412 of Get Rich Education… and you’re listening to it. If you’d like today’s Show Notes, simply go to GetRichEducation.com/412. It includes not just today’s supplemental resources, but the entire transcript of today’s episode. Some people like to say: "Housing prices. They don't matter to cash flow investors." To that, I say. C'mon now. Price might not be the principal consideration. But price matters. If it didn't, why not just pay triple the asking price on your next property purchase? Why does every classified ad have a price in it? Of course, real estate price matters-even to cash flow-centric investors- when you’re buying, you’re selling, or for you to have an adequate equity cushion for refinancings. US home sales dropped last month. That's nothing new. That just means sales volume. Housing supply is part of the reason for volume drop. Available supply is still just half - or less - of what's needed and it will be a multi-year problem. I’ve discussed that before. The dearth of supply is an inelastic condition - it’s difficult to change. What’s the way out of that undersupplied condition? It’s homebuilding. Well, many believe that homebuilders are in a recession. Some are building less while they wait for affordability to improve. This is only going to prolong America’s housing supply problem. Let’s LOOK at prices. Since July 2019, which was back before you knew the definition of "pandemic" and the only time that you wore masks were for Halloween, home prices have risen 44.5%. Yes, 44-and-a-half percent in just 3 years. Now, if we shorten that up to year-over-year median house price growth in America, it is still 10.8%. But the median sale price from June to July eased from about $414,000 to $404,000. 414 to 404. Now, some might say this is hardly a change at all. No, I think it’s meaningful… because all we’ve seen are both YOY and MOM housing price increases for years now. Is it an aberration or is it a trend to come? Of course, no one really knows. But I think it's worth paying attention to. Has the time come? Did real estate prices run up too far, too fast, meaning they must come crashing down to earth in a streaking fireball… that’s going to leave an indelible crater? Puhhh. Let’s explore that. Well, first of all… …the definition of the word "crash" is somewhat UH-morphous. But if it's equated to a bear market, it means a 20% price decline. Well, that's highly unlikely that a decline like this is imminent. Housing values are famously stable. Today's homeowners have oodles of protective equity and their loans are well underwritten. And the supply is staying low. You’re a smart listener, you listen here every week, and you’re probably apprised of all that. But did you know that even during the astoundingly irresponsible and toxic Global Financial Crisis and Mortgage Meltdown of 2007-2010, that back then during that cataclysmic event, house prices fell less than 20% nationally? Yeah, they didn’t even crash 20% then! Fifteen years ago - those were the days of "liar loans", 105% LTVs, loose appraisals because appraisers were in cahoots with lenders, and we had glut of national housing supply and a foreclosure crisis… and nearly every housing market malady that you can quickly think of. Housing values didn’t fall 20% amidst THAT apocalyptic environment. I made sure that chart was put in the show notes for you so that you can see that. That’s the median sale price of houses sold in the United States, sourced by the F.R.E.D. through the US Census and HUD. Today, homes are still being snapped up quickly. That’s what a lack of supply makes happen. And we’ll still have a lack of supply in 2023 and 2024. In fact, last month, the NAR tells us that the median home sold in just 14 days in July. It's never been faster than that on record. That is not something that you would expect amidst stalled PRICE growth. Well, higher mortgage rates will do that. The American housing market reached a turning point this summer. Price increases haven't just slowed—they've stalled. Of course, local factors often supersede national ones. So then… Where are home values least resilient? Areas that were trendy and higher-priced homes. Where are home values most resilient? Lower-priced and entry-level properties. They're the ones least affected by further losses in affordability. That’s what we’ve talked about on this show from Day 1 - investing in entry-level homes for cash flow in the Midwest and South. Who do stalled price increases harm: Sellers. Price matters, remember?New owners that hoped to refinance fast.Flippers. Who do stalled price increases help: Buyers. Rent-to-price ratios. If you were wondering when rents will get a chance to catch up to prices? The answer is now. This recent outsized RENT growth has clearly been a boon to us real estate investors - even a windfall if you’re well leveraged. Now… in the workplace, the pandemic spawned “The Great Resignation”. People either started working from home or quit and stayed at home. They were on their Peleton bike… and on Zoom. But tons of companies… from Peleton to Zoom - have seen consumers end their pandemic buying patterns. Now… so has housing. The pandemic-era frenzy where buyers hotly demanded more space and a Zoom room is what I have called "The Great Reshuffling". It has settled down. At the point of being overly obvious, compared to just a few months ago, this housing market has become worse for sellers and better for buyers. Sellers, you might even have to STAGE properties again. Buyers, let's run a vibe check on how well you’re doing for new purchases. Now you can usually: Not have to pay all-cashYou’ll often have less buyer competitionExpect time for an property inspectionHave an appraisal contingencyAnd avoid an escalation clause on build-to-rents like I’ve discussed with guests here in recent weeks past. You know, a friend just shared something with me. He said: "We are officially back into the 2018 real estate market. I made an offer today on a brand-new flip. I got $10K of seller help and a half page of contingencies." That’s what he said. Yeah, that really sums up a lot. The market has normalized - not become totally normal by any stretch, but negotiations between buyers and sellers are more balanced now. There’s one group that loves higher mortgage rates - and that’s single-family rental owners. That crimps affordability - pricing out that first-time homebuyer… making them rent from you. That’s continuing to push up rents at faster increases than historic norms. Fannie Mae expects that home sales will decrease in the next year. That’s nothing new. The volume of existing-home sales has been decreasing for months. So where does that leave today’s first-time homebuyer, the person - that is becoming more of a rare breed - that DIDN’T have to pay rent to you in your property? Well, the NAR revealed a profile of today’s first-time homebuyer… and I think it’s particularly interesting. Today’s FTHB is… 33 yo - that is the oldest ever - ever. It might not surprise you since affordability is down so it takes a new homebuyer longer to save & form the capital necessary for a down payment, closing costs, and loan qualification. The FTHB is now age 33.Household income is $86,500Median purchase price is $252K… so… significantly less than today’s median priced $400K home.A 7% down payment. That, on average is what the FTHB puts down… so often paying PMI then.37% of them carry student debt. Typical balance $30,000How about avg sq footage. The average square footage of a FTHB’s home is 1,640. Now, I’ve largely been discussing either total housing supply or single-family housing supply thus far. One bright spot is for apartment-dwellers. 420,000 new apartments are forecast to be built in the US this year - that’s according to RentCafe. Coming on top of 2021 - when there was historically high apartment construction, it would mark the first time since 1972 that more than 400k new apartments were completed in each of two straight years. The top spot for new apartments in 2022 is the New York metro area. Elsewhere, out there in the world… Netflix is about to launch a “Shark-Tank” like real estate show called “Buy My House”. It’s structured much like Shark Tank… except homeowners pitch their house sale deal to four “sharks”. That could be interesting to watch. Here, coming up at GRE, hear from not just me, but, as usual some of the most influential personalities in the real estate and finance space commonly come along for an episode and run alongside me. Ramit Sethi from “I Will Teach You To Be Rich” is one of those notable names that will join you & I here on an upcoming show. If you have any questions, comments or concerns about the show, you can always reach out at GetRichEducation.com/Contact. That’s how to get ahold of our team. One question that we’re really not in need of hearing over there on our Contact Page, is: “How do I become a guest on the show?” You know, a couple years ago, we had about 20x as many requests to be a feature guest here on the show as there are available appearances. Well, anymore, it’s about 50X as many requests as weekly shows. We’re sorry to have to apologize to so many wonderfully bright and credentialed people. I really appreciate them. But we only have one, big weekly show… and that supply is not increasing. GRE show supply could be even more inelastic than American housing supply then. I’d like to welcome our newest show sponsor, MyPropertyStats.com. It was developed by Hayden Crabtree. Hayden has been a show guest here before and we expect to have him back here to tell us more about My Property Stats. It’s a deal analysis tool developed by an active investor - Hayden - to cut the time it takes you to analyze ANY deal by over 90%. -Calculate the EXACT price to pay to hit your cash flow and ROI goals -Build a WORLD CLASS pro forma In fact, you can go to MyPropertyStats.com/GRE right now and use coupon code GRE to get 10% off your first year. It’s remarkably inexpensive. That’s just $90 A YEAR for a tool that can save 10 hours PER DEAL. No more spreadsheets. No more juggling multiple files. You can use coupon code "GRE" to get 10% off at MyPropertyStats.com/GRE. Much like the gratefulness I feel for all of the bright guests that are here, we’ve seen quite an influx of advertising inquiries. This is despite that, we haven’t really pitched for advertisers here - much like guests, fortunately, there are plenty of wonderful resources out there that want to reach you, the listener here. These are resources that I don’t just endorse, but I often use myself. If you’d like to make an advertising inquiry here at GRE, you can also reach out at the Contact Page at GetRichEducation.com/Contact I’m Keith Weinhold. I’ll catch you next Monday, Labor Day. You’ve been listening to Get Rich Education. Don’t quit your daydream!