https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl7IqyEyqhYApr 22. Wow. Been awhile. Volleyball. Mexico. Markets:If you lived thru 2021 you’re a rockstar and welcome to our first year down YTD US up 7% and Tech up 20%. Since Dec, 2021 US down 14% and Tech down 20%I know many and myself buying 6 month 5% bonds. But maybe I should pay down the mortgage?Recession looming. San Francisco vacancy at 33%. 15 sales force towers.??National Guard in SFNetflix:$690 - $166 - $328. 232m paid subs. Same analogy I make to legacy media. Disney (closest streaming competitor) lost $1b on streaming. Amazon makes no money except on AWS.Key statement: “We are pleased with the current performance and trajectory of our per-member advertising economics. In the US for instance, our ads plan already has a total ARM (subscription + ads) greater than our standard plan.”Winding down DVD.comTesla:Margins are down. ButFord Motor said Thursday its electric vehicle business lost $2.1 billion last year.Tesla Net Income $2.5b in the quarter! Punchline: How can these companies scale. Innovators dilemma. Charging network, insurance. Battery tech. Lithium refining! Model Y best selling car in Europe. 2nd best in US behind Pickups. Cyber Truck in Q3 and FSD this year? Definitely by 2025. “Our growing fleet of FSD Beta users has an exponential impact on total FSD Beta miles driven – with over 150 million miles to date and counting.”Service and existing fleet. Service is margin. Razors and blades! : 59.08: . Pricing: Sit around in a room and make informed decision 1/week. SpaceX:Everyday Astronaut ThreadAntonio Gracias. Mainstream media perspective. So you going to bet against this company. Has anyone else landed a rocket? Dec 2015. 8 years ago. Blue Origin in 2021. Recommendations: Night Watch, Full Swing, Succession

Markets. S&P 500 -16%, Tech QQQ -30%, Utra tech! ARKK Tech -65%4.6% on 6 month treasury.Inflation. 7.1% YoY.  Fed raised 0.5%. So now 4.25% - 4.5%. Probably going to 5.0 - 5.5%.  Fastest in history. My Mortgage. 4.5% and adjusting again to 2.25% + LIBOR. Baby its cold outside! Crypto Arrests.  SBF in US and out on bail!  $250 million. Caroline and Wang charged. Caroline Ellison, the former chief executive of Alameda Research, a trading firm tied to FTX, and Gary Wang, FTX’s former chief technology officer, both pleaded guilty to criminal offenses similar to those Mr. Bankman-Fried was charged with last week. Ms. Ellison, 28 years old, pleaded guilty to seven counts, including wire fraud and conspiracy to commit securities fraud, according to her plea agreement, which was signed Monday. Mr. Wang, 29, pleaded guilty to four counts, including wire fraud.Caroline interview. Tesla/Twitter: Twitter Spaces. 1 hour interview with 38,000 listening.  13.56. Making ads better.  Making sure Twitter doesn’t go bankrupt. Tesla stock down 69% YTD. $400b company. Now it could triple in 2023. Buffet will probably take a serious look. Elon has inspired a CEO and silicon valley “builders” renaissance. Elon to step down as CEO. Mr. Beast!? San Francisco to investigate worker conditions. Sleeping at work! From WSJ: Redundant managers, along with managers who have opaque responsibilities, are in essence professional critics. Tesla: Tesla energy. MegaPack in Lathrop.FSDTesla SemiAll they want for Christmas is to stop that Mariah Carey song. Is Netflix back? Last week, Netflix said “Wednesday” had crossed 1 billion hours viewed, only the third title to do so within 28 days of its release, joining “Stranger Things 4” and “Squid Game.” Netflix Training classes See Rich Greenfields tweet about eyeballs. Recommendations: White Lotus.WednesdayThe Peripheral on Amazon. Mr. Beast interview on Rogan. Saw it on a list of most liked podcast episodes. Country xmas on Spotify.

Markets. Down 17% was down 25%. Meta job cuts. 11000 13%. Brad Gerstner letter. A summary of some of the layoffs this year…Twitter: cutting 50% of its workforce (estimated 3,700 jobs).Facebook ($META): cutting 13% of its staff (11,000 jobs), its largest round of CryptoSBF is a FRAUD! Bernie Madoff style! FTX lends money to Alameda!! $10b loan on $16b in assets.   FTX meltdown. FTX. Alameda. Binance. Coinbase. Nothing safe. FTX has a prominent list of backers such as Sequoia Capital, BlackRock Inc., Tiger Global Management and SoftBank Group Corp.Sam Bankman-Fried. $8b shortfall! He was worth $26b…apparently.  Tom & Gisele. Hedgefunds. FTX Arena in Miami. Home of Heat. FTX on umpire uniforms. Celeb lawsuits: https://deadline.com/2022/11/tom-brady-giselle-bundchen-ftx-lawsuit-larry-david-steph-curry-crypto-1235174541/In the case of Curry, the NBA legend admitted in another tongue-in-cheek-ish TV spot that he was not that knowledgeable about crypto. He added, looking at the camera: “I don’t need to be. With FTX I have everything I need to buy, sell, and trade crypto safely.”FTX’s new chief executive“Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here,”  “From compromised systems integrity and faulty regulatory oversight abroad, to the concentration of control in the hands of a very small group of inexperienced, unsophisticated and potentially compromised individuals, this situation is unprecedented.”SBF is 2nd largest democratic donor this election cycle. $37 million. SBF parents. raised by two Stanford professors who specialize in law and taxes.Caroline Ellison.    Caroline interview. Related party loans: $300m from last $450m investment to SBF.  Alameda Research had $4.1 billion in related-party loans. Among those were $1 billion to Bankman-Fried, $543 million to FTX Director of Engineering Nishad Singh and $55 million to FTX Digital Markets head Ryan SalamTwitterLays off ½ of 7500 workers. Had to bring some back.  The whole world shit-posting that the site will go down now. Tesla AI runs with 150 engineers. Ligma and Johnson.

Markets. Down 20%. Was 25%, but rallied up 5% just this week.  GDP growth 2.6% (-1.6 and -0.6 in Q1 and Q2). So no recession…currently. Apple. +7%Amazon. -14% Meta. -25%Amazon. AWS insanely profitable. All other biz combined is break-even. Sales of $127b and Operating Income of only $2.5b (2%).Story: AWS $5.4b. All Other: $-2.9b. Everything losing money!! Tesla: $5b on $21b. Meta: meltdown. "Meta's results last night was an absolute train wreck that speaks to pervasive digital advertising doldrums ahead for Zuckerberg & Co. as they make the risky and head scratching bet on the metaverse," Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in a report. Revenue flat to Q4 20 at $27b. NI 4.3 vs 7.8!! Viral Video (Play audio). Twitter: what “products” does a 23 yr old product manager manage? 71% off high. Mkt cap $265b. Was 913b.Headcount growth! The number of employees is up over 3x from 25k to 85k employees in just the last four years! Wants everybody to work in MetaVerse!? Brad Gerstner letter. To accomplish this goal, we recommend a three step plan that will double FCF to $40 B per year and focus the company’s teams and investments:Reduce headcount expense by at least 20%;Reduce annual capex by at least $5 B from $30B to $25B; andLimit investment in metaverse / Reality Labs to no more than $5B per year.The Netflix rebound.Hammered too hard initially. Reached “profitability” and growing. No one else has. Disney will. Amazon spending too much! Advertising more appreciated. Not affected by Apple tracking. A rich ocean to fish in. Comcast. Peacock has 15m subs and lost $614m in the quarter. Twitter takeover. Walks in with Kitchen Sink. Entering Twitter HQ – let that sink in!”Fires CEO and CFO and head lawyer. $100m in severance payDenies that he’ll fire 75% of workforce. Tesla engineers reviewing code. Employees walking out with boxes. Hoax? Just tweeted: Twitter will be forming a content moderation council with widely diverse viewpoints. No major content decisions or account reinstatements will happen before that council convenes.People threatening to leave.. Where? Truth Social, Parler? Tesla: Cruise vs Tesla FSD in SF. Recommendations: Upload.

US Stock market is down 22% and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX or QQQ) is down 32% year-to-date. NetflixAfter 2 quarters of negative subscriber growth Netflix adds 2.4 million subscribers in Q3 and expects 4.5m in Q4. Here are some key takeaways. Revenue grew 6% YoY or 13% excluding FX. This is a big deal because it shows they continue to scale topline at double digit growth. Advertising tier launching in November ($6.99 in US). 5 minutes of advertising per hour. As linear TV continues to die, advertising $’s will move to streaming. Netflix is charging top tier rates to advertisers. Netflix estimates all streaming competitors are losing money and combined losses are north of $10 billion. Why important? Because Netflix has reached critical mass and is generating $5-6 billion in annual operating profit. Very difficult to replicate! Free cash-flow over $1 billion in 2022 and materially larger in 2023. Netflix stock was 75% off its high. Now it is trading around $270 or 61% off high.TeslaTesla is the most exciting company in the world; leading the EV revolution and transition to sustainable energy.Q3 Revenue: $23 billion. Up 56% Year-over-year. Q3 EBITDA: $5 billion. Up 55%. Q3 Storage Deployed (residential and commercial batteries). Up 62% Full Self Driving (FSD) Beta will roll out to everyone in Q4.Reiterated 50% topline growth for the foreseeable future. Semi deliveries begin this December and Cyber next year. Next gen car will be half the cost of 3/Y platform and smaller. Will exceed production output of all other vehicles combined.Elon see’s a pathway for Tesla to exceed the value of Apple and Saudi Aramco combined ($4.4 trillion), excluding accounting for Optimus (the robot). I do too.Tesla stock down 5% 🤔🤣Reminds me of Taylor Swift lyrics: “And the haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate…”  I’m just gonna wait, wait, wait, wait, wait.  Did you see Tesla AI day? Here’s a short video to give you a taste of Optimus.

MarketsDown 24% YtD. Layoffs and Freezes and Downgrades and UpgradesLyft has frozen hiring. Meta froze hiring. Docusign cutting 9% of workforce. Apple downgrade: The iPhone maker dropped 4.9% after Bank of America cut its rating to neutral from buy, warning of weaker consumer demand for its popular devices. The selloff erased roughly $120 billion from Apple’s market capitalization.Nike down 10%. Inventory up 44% QoQ.  NetflixNetflix upgrade:Last week. Two this week. $283. Netflix up 35% in quarter from $175 to $240. Advertising $’s. $65/1000 views. Advertisers may allocate from Meta to Netflix. Federal ReserveThe Fed led by Jerome Powell raised the Fed Funds rate 75 bps to 3.0 - 3.25%. Expectation is now 4.0 - 4.5% by year end. Powell is determined to sink the economy to drive inflation to 2%. Why 2 and not 3%. We have a strong economy, strong underlying demand, low unemployment and the Fed is determined to destroy that. CathieDWood (@Cathie Wood) Tweeted: The Fed is basing monetary policy decisions on lagging indicators: employment and core inflation. Leading inflation indicators like gold and copper are flagging the risk of deflationCommoditiesCommodities are down. Lumber: $410 down from $1300 in February 2022. Copper at $334 from high of $494 in March. Iron Ore $150 to $109.  Oil? Not so muchHousingHousing: 30 year mortgage rate is up from 3% to 7%. Result: $23k increase in down payment (assuming 20% down) and 100% increase in monthly payment (from $1,345 to $2,694).TeslaTesla Recall. NHTSA FUD. Tesla is recalling more than a million cars because of defects in their automatic windows that could injure passengers, the nation's auto safety regulator said. FSD Beta. Rolling out to all owners with driving score >80. Tesla AI Day.Note, this event is meant for recruiting AI & robotics engineers, so will be highly technicalAs well as advanced chip & supercomputer engineers for next-gen training & inferenceWhat are Jim and Mary thinking? Quote: Children are happy because: They’re not self conscious. They lack a sense of time pressureThey’ve no goals.

MarketsDown 17%. Tech down 25%. Housing.Homes in August sat on the market an average five days longer than they did a year ago.The median listing price in August dropped to $435,000 from $449,000 in JulyThe average home sold for less than its list price for the first time in more than 17 months during the four-week period ended Aug. 28, according to RedfinNord Stream Pipeline closed again. Russia booking record profits. Long cold winter for Germany.   Biden Speach: Red lights. Looks like Nazi Germany. Portnoy Rant.  Who are Maga Republicans? 5%, 10% far right? 49%? Far “left” just as dangerous. He just speak to the extremes if he wants to “unite” the country. White house seeking $12b for Ukraine. In addition to $40b already approved. Roger Waters on American politics. And in Mississippi. Nvidia: On July 27 Pelosi sells Nvidia stock.Aug 26 Government says can’t sell advanced chips to China. Energy (in California)August 24 CA bans the sale of gasoline cars by 2035. August 30: Stop charging electric vehicles. May have rolling blackouts.  Diablo Canyon Closure and then re-open.LA Times: How much does that plant produce? From PG&E directly:18,000 gigawatt hours. ~10% of California’s energy needs. For years, Diablo Canyon has continued to safely produce clean and reliable energy without greenhouse gases (GHG), avoiding 6 to 7 million tons per year of GHGs that would be emitted by conventional generation resources. Built to withstand extreme natural disasters, including earthquakes, Diablo Canyon’s design features state-of-the-art seismic supportsWe need energy independence, which means mining too.   TeslaInvestment grade debate. Answer from Moody’s.  Narrow product line.  AXA Tesla video and apology.Volkswagon sucks at software. This is where most car companies are. Tesla FSD 10.69.1 69 minutes non-stop driving in SF. Record delivery for Aug and Sept is Shanghai. Netflix: Advertising live Nov 1!? $7-9 pricingRecommendations: Joe Rogan: Tim Dillon and ZuckerbergPam and Tommy. So dumb! But can’t stop watching. Sex and Rock n Roll.

The MarketsDown 13% YtD.  I don’t think we’ll see new highs until 2024. Just gonna bounce around.The Fed. Jerome Powell: “Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time,” Student loan debt reliefThe president’s plan cancels $10,000 in federal student-loan debt for borrowers making under $125,000 a year or couples making less than $250,000 a year. Ultimately, the average cost of tuition has increased more than 144% since 2001 on average, even after accounting for inflation.It's not “fair”.  Nothing is though! The bigger issue is it doesn’t fix the underlying issue. Let markets drive supply/demand. Literature/history major. Optometrist example.  Need to fix underlying issue: University costs are rising faster than cost of living and fueled by college administrators that are incentivized to encourage students to borrow. We should used a market-based approach to student lending. Universities should be on the line. Should approve. Market based. Grades and Major. Some states are going to levy taxes on forgiven debt.   https://lendedu.com/blog/student-loan-debt-by-school-by-state/Novak Dkokovic Not competing in US open because he’s not vaccinated. So many people are getting Covid, including the CEO of Pfizer.  Electricity Prices20 million households across the country—about 1 in 6 American homes—have fallen behind on their utility bills.Electric VehiclesCalifornia Switch to electric vehicles by 2030. 17 states generally follow. Tesla Stock split. 900 to 300.Tesla 10.69.2 set to release in a couple of weeks. “Wide Beta” version. FSD price increased to $15k. Very bullish.  Investment grade rating. Record Q3 and Q4 deliveries and profits.  Semi release in Q4 and CyberTruck in 2023. Continued ramping of factories and likely announcement of new Giga.Macro-level: Energy prices driving Solar consumption. Tesla Virtual Power Plant program. RecommendationsHouse of the Dragon. Meh. And HBO renewed it. Hand Maids Tail.  Rings of Power?  $250m for rights. $500m to make. Rory and Tiger

Markets Yes, We’re in a recession, but White House attempting to change the definition after …centuries…forever? Recession is 2 quarters of negative GDP. Inflation at 8.5%. US stocks down 24% and Tech down 31% on June 17. Now: 12% and 18%, respectively. PoliticsNancy Pelosi visits Taiwan. Prompts drills and missile tests by China. Do we really need this right now? Is that a good idea? Does it advance American interests? Since 1979 and under many administrations - left and right - we’ve maintained a policy of “Strategic Ambiguity”.Raid on Trump’s Mar a Lago. Could be Nuke materials…in that case…kind of serious. Why not just make photo-copies. Or take pics on iPhone. So easy!? Could there be a master plan. I thought the locker room talk would lock him out of the presidency.  IRS70000 new agents. Requirements: 37 yrs old requirement. Adhere to the highest standards of conduct especially meeting honesty and integrity.Work a minimum of 50 hours per week which may include irregular hours and be on call 24/7 including holidays and weekends. Maintain a level of Fitness necessary to effectively respond to life-threatening situations on the job.Carry a firearm and be willing to use deadly force if necessary.Be willing and able to participate in arrest and execution of search warrants and other dangerous assignments.IRS Math: Elon on National Debt: “US national debt is ~$28,900 billion or ~$229k per taxpayer.Even taxing all “billionaires” at 100% would only make a small dent in that number, so obviously the rest must come from the general public. This is basic math.Spending is the real problem.”Tesla Elon Tweets Reminds us of Master Plan part deux.  Written July 2016. Everything came around. Master plan 3 coming. Semi Truck. Cybertruck. New and expanded facilities. Machine of Machines. Jim Farley: https://twitter.com/_Tesla247_/status/1557472545695322112. Take that Elon Musk!  What? Dan Odowd and FSD running over children!! Sex Tapes. Sticky situation. Elon 18 years. And running 3 others:  Including SpaceX, which landed first rocket in 2015 no one has done so since.  Streaming Wars: https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-price-increase-shows-limits-of-subscriber-growth-push-11660256118?mod=hp_lead_pos3https://twitter.com/RichLightShed/status/1557480645705830402Subscriber #’s at Disney 2x and 3x counted. 3 types: Pure Streaming: Netflix, Amazon, Apple.Mix: Paramount, WBD, Peacock, DisneyArms Dealer: Sony. Recommendations: Obstacle is the way. Ryan Holiday. Happiness corresponds to how much you think about yourself vs. others! Terminal List. Chris PrattOld Man w/ Jeff Bridges

Economy/Markets.  US Stocks down 22%, tech down 28%, ARKK down 55%. Inflation print. CPI at 9.1%Energy and Gas up 60% Food up 10%. These are the items that are killing average Americans. What now: War, Supply Chains, Inflation (supply driven), and Fed actions.  We need a peace deal to end the war and we need China open. Are we in a recession? Yes. Politics: 70-80% of americans in general agreement. Then the 10% wacko’s come out and ruin everything for the rest of us. Climate change or die! No. There is a middle ground. Energy. Pass $1 trillion bill. $500b on near term energy and $500b on long term sustainable clean energy. To easy, right!?Abortion. Shouldn't have gone here!?Netflix: Bad guide. Stock down 75%. Partnering with Microsoft for adsTikTok kicking Netflix’s ass…so why not compete head on. Lots of Cheap stocks:Example: Stitchfix down 95%. Bill Gurley buys $5m of StitchFix. 20x return if it goes back. That’s the good news. Twitter/MuskSpam accounts hard to determine.Twitter suit against Musk looks like a looser. Elon Musk is a nightmare client. The Atlantic. Tesla returning to office. As for Musk himself, the CEO had said in an email a few days earlier that he would spend six days a week in the factory, “seven if physically possible.” In the email, which The Information reviewed and which hasn’t been previously reported, Musk added, “BTW, anything I ask others to do, I do myself even more.”Tesla: All automakers down today. Watching this guy say that Tesla will “revert to mean” of other company valuations. No they wont. Solar, Battery, Cars, AI, HVAC, Semi’s, Entertainment: TopgunTour de France. British Open for Golf. Tiger shot a 78.

Austin Texas bachelor party. I love that town. Dr. Emperor of masks and vaccs Fauci has Covid; and he’s been vaccinated 4 times. Chesa Boudin the progressive DA of the most progressive city was recalled. Are people actually getting tired of crime? Markets: S&P down 23% and Nasdaq 100 down 30%. Fed just raised 0.75% this week. First time since 1994. Now we’re at 1.75%. Inflation. Gas. War. 8.6% 100% up for gas. News flash: interest rate hikes don’t drive gas prices down. Credit card companies make a lot more money when gas prices double. Their revenue doubles. Buy Visa and Mastercard?Housing: In Jan 2021 30 yr mortgage rate was 2.65%. Avg home price $402k. Today. 5.78% and $570k. 20% down payment. Monthly payment is $1,294 to $2,671. 106% increase. Rates are 3% higher. So $500k loan. $15k/year or $1,250/mo. I personally just saw more houses for sale on Zillow in my neighborhood, more than ever. USA Today removes 23 articles after a reporter fabricated sources. USA today is allegedly a “fact checker” for Facebook and possibly Twitter. Musk at Twitter All-hands.  Elon Musk: SpaceX fires employees. No unsolicited employee activism needed!! NYT reporting on letter. Brian Armstrong did this at Coinbase. “The letter, solicitations and general process made employees feel uncomfortable, intimidated and bullied, and/or angry because the letter pressured them to sign onto something that did not reflect their views,” Ms. Shotwell wrote. “We have too much critical work to accomplish and no need for this kind of overreaching activism.”Twitter: So casual. Looks like he is on iPhone and some dude walking around in kitchen in background. 200m daily users. 7.8b Gap. 8b in world. Wants 1b at least. How to verify. $3/month. Payments. Entertaining advertising.Video: Talk about how to make Twitter better! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLvTcRrzy20Video 2: How do you define success. Netflix take some lessons! TikTok!! Electrician and immigration. 3 strategies: PHD’s. Lower labor. Refugees. AND Strong borders. Tesla stuck in the mountains. https://twitter.com/ShowersJacob/status/1537556676558979072

Mike Greene is innovating and changing the future of single-family home investment opportunities! Mike Greene is the CEO of Resi-Shares; a firm that is leveraging data, technology, and financial innovation to deliver systematically diversified appreciation and rental income from single family homes.Mike and I go back a long way having attended the MBA program at UC Berkeley.  Mike has worked his entire life in real estate including sell-side banking, buy-side and finally at HouseCanary, a company leveraging big data and AI to provide actionable insights on real estate. In this episode we talk about: When Mike co-founded his business Covid hit and he thought it would be a perfect time to invest in single-family housing, but the markets sky-rocketed and real estate prices went up. Turned out the timing was terrible, but like any great entrepreneur he persevered, learned a lot and survived! What his company Resi-Shares and other institutions are doing in the real estate markets: BlackRock, BlackStone, and investing in real estate investment trusts (REIT’s). We spend a lot of time talking about Bay Area real estate (at my admittedly selfish request). Should you buy or rent?Should you sell or rent if you’re moving? What’s going to happen to Bay Area real estate, given economy and interest rates.  We've seen a migration out of California, but housing consistently goes up in price. We dive into the why. Recommendations discussed: Anthony Bourdain - Medium RawLakers Fiction/non-fiction story: Winning Time

Markets: S&P 500 down 15% and Nasdaq 100 down 23% YTD. Housing Market: Mortgage rates from 2.5 to 5.5%. $1m loan at 3% is $30,000 per year, Double that to get pre-tax earnings of $60,000. That means you need to be earning at least $60,000 more per year to cover mortgage interest on $1m loan. There is a silver lining to this market. Big downturns every decade or so make for the best 2-3 time opportunities in life to invest. 2022 is it. Fund your 529’s. Dollar cost average in.  Sept 2000: 1520 - 800 Oct 2002. 47%. Oct 2007: 1565. 95% (doubled money in 5 years). March 2009: 712. 54% down. Jan 2022: 4800. 574%. Almost 6x. 13 years. May 2022: 3900. 20% down. Tesla: Elon Emails: https://twitter.com/WholeMarsBlog/status/1532728341865943040Bloomberg: To be super clear! “Pretend to Work somewhere else” - Elon Musk. Reuters: Elon email to cut staff by 10%. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-musk-says-tesla-needs-cut-staff-by-10-pauses-all-hiring-2022-06-03/Joe Biden Video9000 Ton Giga-press for Cybertruck. YouTube videoStock down 10% hahaFord: In another headline: Ford to Create Thousands of Factory Jobs, Invest $3.7 Billion in EV, Gas-Engine ProductionThe 3.7 multibillion-dollar investment will go to retooling factories to build newer versions of gas-engine models, such as the Ford Ranger pickup and Mustang sports car, the auto maker said Thursday. 55,000 Union auto workers. In Closing; NFLX Stranger Things viewing. 286m vs Briderton and MoneyHeist ~200m. Johnny Depp $10m. Hunter Biden. Texts. Viewer discretion advised!

We probably could use some reasonable gun laws that 80% of Americans agree on.  In fact, 80% of Americans would agree on a lot of things, but our politicians are so corrupted by the far left and right, its impossible to get anything done! Huge rally this week. Stocks up 4% in 4 days. Layoffs at PayPal, Netflix,  Robinhood and Bolt (one click startup payment company)Hiring Freeze/slowing at Meta, Uber, Coinbase, Microsoft, Nvidia.  Fed minutes indicated will still increase 0.5% in June and July. But then open to “wait and see”.Housing market: Mortgage rates up: 2.5% to 5%+ Home Sales are down Jan to April. 6.5m to 5.6. 15% down. Spring/summer should be up!? Single family starts lowest since Oct 2021. Mortgage purchase applications slowest since May 2020. Homebuilder sentiment lowest since June 2020. Energy. Gasoline up 80%. Crypto is not a hedge: Crypto market cap has fallen from $2.3t to 1.3t. $4.5b fund at Andreeson Horowitz. A16zMy Luna is $0. BTC. Down 56%ETH. Down 60%. DCA in still recommended. Apple holding up well in the News. $144, down 21% YtD. was down 25%Flat iPhone sales. 220m, same as 2021. Expected 240. Tormer Tesla Autopilot software engineer who left to join Apple’s secretive car project last year, has left Apple to join Luminar.Lidar vs. AI real cameras. Tesla showing different types of cars, doors open, garbage cans, cones, traffic lights…insane! Tesla: Diner3700 charging stations globally.Elon committed to buying Twitter.  Netflix: Netflix Games suck. Stranger Things. Can it have a Squid Game effect? Its been 3 years and only show streamed/seen more was final episode of GoT. In Closing: Ricky Gervais on Netflix. Tesla Charger competition. https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-supercharger-competition-race-11653581057?mod=hp_featst_pos5

The US is in a recession. The Fed is not helping as they are driving consumer confidence and therefore spending into the ground. Its a Fed-induced recession. Regardless, the markets needed this correction. Its healthy and if you have money this is the time to make a lot of money over the next decade.  Tech stocks and "Generals" have now been shot. Apple is down 25%. Google, Amazon, Microsoft all down over 25%.  Consumer defensive: Target, Costco, Walmart, Koels, all down! Netflix is making major strategic adjustments. About time! Tesla/Twitter....so much going on. I play some clips of Elon talking about (1) why he's buying Twitter. Surprise, it all sounds reasonable and rational. and (2) why Tesla is like 10 startups in one company. Have a great weekend!

We are in the 3rd major drawdown of the 2000's.  2000: DotCom Crash2008: Great Recession2020: Great Reset. Elon is buying Twitter. The far left is pissed. But now he's got backing by big private equity and Larry Ellison. He also says he will take Twitter public again in 3 years or so. Tesla is killing it. Growing 50% year over year at a scale never before seen in history. Netflix completely dropped the ball. Raised prices too fast and programming is not good enough. Down 72%. So many tech companies down 50 - 90%. There will be more carnage.  Recommendations: get outside. It's summer.

I think Covid is finally over, at least in US. We are so tired of it. Time to move on. Markets are wild this quarter. Down 15%, then up 10% to be down only 6%!?  Tesla is tearing it up in Austin with their Cyber Rodeo today/tomorrow. Elon to speak tonight. So many catalysts in their business including Tesla Austin, Berlin and Shanghai expansion.  Elon joined Twitter board. This will be interesting and will be good for free speech in the "public square" Netflix is too woke and not taking enough risks. Stock down 50%. Unlikely to recover anytime soon. They don't even care about 140m potential subscribers in Russia. Pinterest is dying to get noticed, so said they will start suppressing climate change misinformation. Good for them. Masters golf tournament this weekend!

Ukraine. Markets are getting smashed, but we're not in recession...Yet.  State of the Union. Covid super spreader event...nope...they told us its over! Yay. Is Biden a flip-flopper?  Overall boring, like all of them.  Covid is over; at least our politicians say so. Tesla is KING.

Serious and tragic situation with Ukraine and Russia. This needs to end soon. Markets officially went into "correction" territory this week, which means they're down 10% from high. This could be a wild year! Block and Etsy are great examples of growing high potential companies that got punished by 60-70% off their high. They both reported strong earnings on Thursday and rebounded sharply...though no where near where they were! Tesla in the news. Ford in the news: CEO says it will be VERY difficult to compete head-to-head with Tesla! Wow! I loved Despicable Me 1 & 2.  Embarrassed to say I'd never seen them before!

Markets are crashing in general, but worse if you're in high-tech.  Just got to weather this out. If you have cash, keep buying slowly.  You'll look back in 2 years and realize it was a hell of a deal. War in Ukraine, supply chain and stupid Fed policy/communications not helping at all. Good news is no fundamental structural issues in economy. EV's. Government continues to attack Tesla, arguably the most innovative and climate change important company in the World. Ford looks to get Tesla like valuations....oh but no software folks there. California just held the super bowl with 100k fans in attendance un-masked, but somehow Dictator Newsom still says we're in a "state of emergency"...going on 2 years now. San Francisco recalled 3 SF School Board members. Last city to open schools, but they spent all their time debating what to rename 44 schools, including Lincoln and Washington. Finally, some sanity...we want our politicians to focus on things that actually affect us...duh!! Neil Young back on Spotify...thank goodness...I was going mad without his playlist.