"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others) Welcome back to another episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast with Serge Berger from thesteadytrader.com. In this fireside chat following the holiday season, Serge delves into the leading indicator qualities of Bitcoin. Prefacing it as a data-driven analysis, not a pro-Bitcoin endorsement, he explores Bitcoin's role as a risk-on or risk-off asset and its correlation with market sentiment. Serge uncovers Bitcoin's potential as an inflation hedge, demonstrating its foresight in reacting to inflationary pressures. Through a detailed chart analysis, he illustrates how Bitcoin has served as a leading indicator for equities, offering insights into market trends and dynamics. Don't miss this insightful exploration into the evolving relationship between Bitcoin and broader financial markets.

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. www.thesteadytrader.com The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others) In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast, hosted by Serge Berger, listeners are taken on a deep dive into the current economic landscape as of late November 2023. Berger reflects on the year's macroeconomic uncertainties, including the impact of AI on markets and the unique dynamics of long-duration equities. The central question posed is whether stocks or the bond market accurately reflect the economic situation. Berger uses charts and analysis to explore potential scenarios, providing insights into the implications for portfolios. With a focus on interest rates, economic cyclicality, and the delicate balance between stocks and bonds, this episode offers valuable perspectives for navigating the evolving financial landscape.

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others) Welcome to the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast with your host, Serge Berger. In this episode, Serge dives into the potential portfolio consequences of interest rates remaining notably higher. With just a few weeks left in 2023, Serge explores the impact of the current 4.5% to 5% yield range in the US Treasury market on both portfolios and trading strategies. He challenges the common narrative that higher interest rates will lead to widespread destruction, emphasizing that it's not just about the absolute level of rates but also the rate of change. Drawing on historical data, Serge highlights that the 4 to 5 percent range has been more of a norm than an exception, suggesting a shift from ultra-low rates to a more normalized range. Serge shares valuable insights into the trading perspective, discussing how higher rates imply a higher discount rate for risk assets, potentially resulting in lower returns for equities. He emphasizes mean reversion strategies in a higher interest rate environment, suggesting that oscillators like MACD or stochastic indicators may be more effective. The episode covers various asset classes, from bonds to real estate, high dividend stocks, and commodities. Serge explores how each may be influenced by elevated interest rates, offering a nuanced view of their potential performance. Additionally, he underscores the attractiveness of cash and short-term instruments, challenging the notion that "cash is trash" and highlighting their potential benefits in a rising rate environment. As the podcast concludes, Serge encourages listeners to shift away from chart-chasing and consider mean reversion strategies for 2024, anticipating continued challenges and opportunities in the market. Whether you're an investor or trader, this episode provides valuable insights for navigating the complex landscape shaped by interest rate dynamics. Tune in and stay ahead of the curve in the ever-evolving financial markets.

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others) In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast, hosted by Serge Berger, listeners are treated to a deep dive into the often overlooked aspect of successful investing—avoidance of common mistakes. Serge emphasizes the significance of risk management and shares a checklist of "easy wins" to prevent portfolio blowups. Drawing from personal and client experiences, he covers topics ranging from avoiding overtrading and overleveraging to understanding the details of contracts and staying diversified. The episode serves as a practical guide, urging investors to prioritize risk management over constant profit maximization. Berger's insights offer a refreshing perspective for those looking to enhance their investment strategies.

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others) In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast with Serge Berger, the discussion delves into the recent surge in risk assets and poses a crucial question: is this the inception of a year-end rally or have we already witnessed a significant portion of the anticipated upside? Berger, the host of the podcast and founder of thesteadytrader.com, begins by outlining the market's oversold conditions, signaling a potential bounce in various risk assets from U.S. equities to European equities and beyond. Highlighting the technical basis for the oversold bounce, Berger links it to broader 4th quarter seasonality. He emphasizes the significance of understanding economic data for making informed investment decisions and encourages individuals engaging in self-directed investing to have informed conversations with their advisors. Berger dissects the market's behavior from the previous week, observing a "risk-on" sentiment, where interest rate-sensitive assets surged while energy markets underperformed. He analyzes the correlations between equities, the dollar, oil, and yields, noting a divergence in their movements, especially with equities rising as other asset classes declined. He connects these market movements to the economic cycle and a gradually slowing economy. Despite earlier misjudgments about the timing of the economic slowdown, Berger asserts the directional accuracy of his analysis. He elaborates on the reasons behind the market's reaction to weaker economic indicators and how it impacts different asset classes. The podcast delves into the intricacies of market correlations and algorithms, emphasizing the importance of understanding the "why" behind market movements for effective risk management. Berger elucidates the recent market rally in response to the weakened ISM number and how this triggered varied reactions across asset classes. Cautioning about potential challenges ahead, Berger examines technical indicators such as moving averages and overbought readings in the S&P 500 and German DAX. He scrutinizes Apple's performance and questions its growth trajectory. Berger outlines potential investment strategies, suggesting allocations to AGG (the aggregate bond ETF) and short-term Treasury bills, while advocating for a balanced approach to equity exposure and protective strategies through put options. The podcast episode provides a comprehensive analysis of current market conditions, offering insights into potential investment strategies while emphasizing the importance of understanding economic cycles and correlations. It also stresses the significance of prudent risk management amidst uncertain market dynamics. Berger concludes by inviting listeners to explore more content on The Steady Wealth Podcast and encourages sharing or recommending potential guests for future episodes.

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others) In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast, host Serge Berger shares insights fresh from the Orlando summit. He reflects on the engaging discussions held with clients about market trends, focusing specifically on the current state of equities. Berger delves into the potential for a near-term balance in the market, emphasizing the likelihood of a temporary bounce but expressing doubts about a sustained year-end rally due to economic factors like taxation and prevailing market conditions. He highlights a busy week ahead, detailing the significance of economic data, the Federal Reserve meeting, and upcoming job reports. Berger illustrates oversold market conditions, pointing to specific stocks exhibiting extreme downward momentum while discussing potential surprises in the remaining months of the year. He forecasts the possibility of equities lacking a traditional year-end rally, speculates on a potential bear market rally in bonds, and considers the impact of a Bitcoin ETF approval on the market. Emphasizing caution due to the increased likelihood of a market downturn, Berger delivers a nuanced perspective, acknowledging the potential for surprises in a year marked by unique economic conditions. He also teases upcoming episodes with guest appearances, inviting listeners to join future discussions on the podcast. Is this conversation helpful so far?

It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."  These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast hosted by Serge Berger, listeners are presented with a critical question: "Could the stock market crash in the fourth quarter of 2023?" Serge Berger begins by exploring the typical seasonal tailwinds that influence equities and risk assets in Q4, emphasizing the positive aspects and not predicting doom and gloom. Berger delves into the seasonality of fund managers chasing high-performing assets to mark up their books at year-end. He uses historical data to support the idea that the fourth quarter tends to be influenced by these factors. However, he's cautious not to oversimplify and underscores that seasonality is not a guarantee, emphasizing the importance of considering the broader economic environment. Berger then delves into key economic indicators, such as the yield curve and the Federal Reserve's rate policies. He explains how a re-steepening yield curve can signal potential trouble for the equity market and why shifts in the Fed's stance matter. Moreover, he points out that the slowing economy and geopolitical tensions are creating an increasingly complex situation. The podcast addresses the performance of various sectors and tech stocks, highlighting the challenges and the weight of evidence suggesting a challenging time for the stock market. Berger analyzes the performance of major stocks and indices over different time frames, revealing that the weight of evidence leans toward a more difficult period for investors in the fourth quarter. While maintaining an open mind, the episode encourages listeners to consider the possibility of a market decline, emphasizing the importance of making informed decisions in a rapidly evolving economic landscape.

It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."  These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast, hosted by Serge Berger, listeners are guided on how to become more successful and open-minded traders and investors. Serge, head trader and investment strategist at thesteadytrader.com, emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough due diligence on financial information sources. He addresses concerns about market research from mainstream media and underscores the significance of differentiating between investment advice and research. Serge delves into challenges such as high fees, churning, lack of diversification, and misalignment with client goals. He urges listeners to choose reputable, transparent advisors and align their financial strategies accordingly for a secure future. Tune in for insightful guidance and valuable tips on navigating the financial landscape.

It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."  These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast hosted by Serge Berger, titled "Is the Golden Age for Stocks Over?", Berger delves into the critical state of the economy and the implications for the stock market. He reflects on the Q4 playbook for 2023, discussing the contrasting forces of economic slowdown and seasonal stock market potential. Berger emphasizes the importance of understanding the evolving economic cycle and the impact of interest rates on investment strategies. He explores the shift in investor behavior and the potential movement towards bonds, challenging the notion of a continued golden age for stocks. Berger highlights the need for careful, tactical investment approaches in the current economic landscape. Tune in for insightful analysis and strategic financial considerations.

It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."  These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast hosted by Serge Berger, we delve into the intricacies of the fourth quarter of 2023. Berger, an experienced trader and investor, provides insights on market dynamics and potential strategies during this critical period. He emphasizes the need for flexibility and risk management in navigating the evolving markets, acknowledging the uncertain economic cycle and the juxtaposition of bullish seasonality with late-cycle economic indicators. Berger outlines a portfolio structure, allocating strategically to hedge risk and capitalize on potential opportunities, offering a roadmap for investors in this dynamic market landscape.

It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."  These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. In the latest episode of the Steady Wealth Podcast, hosts Serge Berger and Brian discuss the current state of the market and potential outcomes for the fourth quarter. With economic data showing a mix of pessimism and cautious optimism, they anticipate a sideways drift for equities with some volatility. The conversation delves into factors influencing the market, including interest rates and their impact on stock prices. Bond yields, especially the 10-year, are at historical highs, causing concern. Brian shares his perspective on potential interest rate movements and their effects on the economy and stocks. They also touch on the recent Federal Reserve meeting, where a hawkish stance was adopted, affecting market sentiment. Serge and Brian discuss the correlation between interest rates and equity performance, highlighting the potential headwinds higher rates pose for the stock market. Looking at shorter-term projections, they anticipate fluctuating markets, potentially influenced by economic data and central bank actions. They note the possibility of a bullish rally if exceptionally positive economic news is released. However, overall, they expect a flat trajectory for equities in the coming months. Amidst all the financial discussions, the hosts share a lighthearted moment discussing airline experiences and turbulence analogies to market conditions. The episode provides valuable insights into the complex interplay of economic indicators and investor psychology, guiding listeners through the potential market landscape in the near future.

It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."  These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance. In the latest episode of the Steady Wealth Podcast, host Serge Berger delves into the much-discussed topic of whether the traditional 60-40 investment portfolio is still effective. The 60-40 portfolio traditionally allocates 60% to stocks and 40% to bonds, aiming to balance risk and returns. Serge explores how people have been quick to label this approach as obsolete, emphasizing the recent shift in bond yields and its impact on the portfolio's performance. He discusses the advantages and disadvantages of the 60-40 strategy, highlighting the importance of considering an individual's financial goals, risk tolerance, and age when determining the appropriate portfolio mix. Furthermore, Serge proposes potential modifications to enhance the 60-40 portfolio, including diversification through commodities and a more dynamic approach to asset allocation. He advocates for staying informed and adaptable in managing investments to navigate changing financial landscapes effectively. For more insights and personalized advice, Serge suggests engaging with investment advisors and leveraging research resources. Tune in to gain a comprehensive understanding of the 60-40 portfolio's relevance and how to optimize it for today's market conditions.

It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance. Welcome to this week's episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast with your host, Serge Berger. Serge touches on various facets, from inflation and diversification strategies to the evolving demand for energy. Serge emphasizes the importance of a diversified investment portfolio, debunking the myth of chasing the latest investment trends. Instead, he advocates for a well-rounded approach, explaining why energy stocks should be on investors' radars. Drawing on data and charts, Serge illustrates the recent performance of energy stocks, showing their impressive resilience in the face of inflation and market fluctuations. He discusses how energy stocks have emerged as a reliable hedge, outperforming bonds and even rivaling other sectors. Serge delves into the dynamics of the energy sector, highlighting the increasing demand for energy resources worldwide. He explores factors like population growth and rising living standards, which continue to drive the need for energy, making it a promising long-term investment. Additionally, Serge presents a nuanced perspective on inflation and deflation, acknowledging the ongoing debate. He discusses how shifting spending patterns among baby boomers could impact the overall inflation landscape and its implications for energy stocks. In conclusion, Serge Berger provides insightful analysis and recommends an overweight allocation to energy stocks, positioning them as a viable hedge against inflation. Tune in to this episode for a comprehensive understanding of the energy sector's significance in today's ever-evolving financial markets.

It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance. Welcome to this week's episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast with your host, Serge Berger. As we transition from the summer months into the more intriguing part of the market, September through December, Serge takes a deep dive into the seasonality and historical data surrounding the US equity market in September. While September is often seen as a weak month statistically, Serge discusses the complexity of relying solely on seasonality as a predictive factor and explores the dynamics of market sentiment. He also highlights the impact of algorithmic trading and economic data on market behavior. Tune in to gain valuable insights into potential market trends for the month and how to approach your portfolio during this transitional period.

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance. In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast, hosted by Serge Berger, the focus is on the psychology of market timing—a crucial aspect for successful trading and investing. Berger begins by discussing the challenge of making tactical moves in the market and emphasizes the need to understand market psychology. He delves into how fear and greed impact decisions, leading investors to buy and sell at unfavorable moments. With his signature insights, Berger highlights the difficulties of market timing, using charts to show that both self-directed and professional investors often struggle to outperform indices. He advocates for diversification and advises listeners to approach market timing with caution, keeping emotions and arbitrary stops in check. The episode ends with a reminder that human psychology plays a significant role in trading and investing decisions.

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance. In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast hosted by Serge Berger, he delves into the top three trading mistakes that traders commonly make. Drawing from his experience, Berger discusses how many traders treat their investment accounts like trading accounts, exposing themselves to undue risk. He emphasizes the importance of separating investment and trading capital to maintain financial stability. Berger then explores the impact of emotions on trading decisions. Impatience, premature exits, and not allowing trades to mature are all emotional pitfalls traders fall into. He suggests adhering to stop losses and employing time stops to manage risk effectively. The episode also emphasizes the significance of taking trading seriously. Berger warns against trading with excessive funds and provides insights into diversification strategies that can help investors navigate market cycles more effectively. Overall, the episode offers actionable insights to help traders avoid common pitfalls and enhance their trading strategies.

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance. n the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast, hosted by the experienced trader and investment strategist Serge Berger, listeners gain valuable insights on becoming better, more successful, and open-minded traders and investors. As August brings a shift in market dynamics, Serge highlights the importance of diversification in portfolios. With the help of research, guest interviews, and real-time market analysis, this episode navigates the critical juncture where knowledge translates to power. Serge emphasizes the role of diversification in mitigating volatility, offering investors a higher probability of steadier returns over time. Dive into this enlightening discussion to enhance your financial journey.

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance. In this episode, Serge delves into an essential topic: Can you stomach a 20% portfolio drop? As the host of the podcast, Serge is also the principal of Blue Marlin Advisors, an investment advisory firm. Throughout the episode, Serge takes a research-based approach to discuss market volatility and its impact on investors. He begins by emphasizing the importance of understanding one's risk tolerance and how it can affect investment decisions. Serge offers valuable insights into the current market conditions, highlighting the significant rise in US equity markets while cautioning about the potential underperformance of the bond market. He further discusses investor complacency, indicating how periods of strong market performance can lead to overly confident attitudes among investors. Serge shares his experience with clients who exhibit excessive confidence but may not fully comprehend how they would react during market drawdowns. To illustrate the concept of volatility and risk, Serge walks the audience through several charts and examples, making the information accessible even to those who may only be listening to the podcast without visual aid. The episode also covers the importance of determining one's risk appetite, especially during retirement. Serge explains that as investors get closer to retirement, their risk tolerance typically decreases, and it is essential for investors to be aware of this shift to avoid panicking during normal market fluctuations. The podcast continues with a hypothetical portfolio example, where Serge explains how to gauge and measure risk tolerance by using a diversified 60-40 portfolio allocation. He emphasizes the significance of understanding both the percentage and dollar amounts involved to make informed decisions. Towards the end, Serge encourages listeners to take a free risk assessment offered by Blue Marlin Advisors. He highlights that this exercise is crucial for both long-term investors and traders, as knowing one's risk tolerance can help avoid irrational decision-making during volatile market conditions. The episode concludes with a reminder to continuously assess and adapt one's risk tolerance as it may change over time, particularly during different life stages like retirement. Overall, The Steady Wealth Podcast with Serge Berger provides a thought-provoking analysis of market volatility, risk tolerance, and the importance of making informed investment decisions. By combining research and real-life examples, Serge empowers his audience to navigate the markets with greater confidence and prudence.

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance. In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast, hosted by Serge Berger, he discusses the allure of juicy bond ETFs for generating high yields. Amidst anecdotes about his recent roller coaster ride at a theme park in Orlando, Florida, Serge emphasizes the importance of considering risk both in thrill-seeking adventures and in investment portfolios. He delves into the significance of diversification and highlights specific bond ETFs worth considering, such as TLT (longer end of the yield curve), SHY/SHV (shorter end), AGG (covering the entire bond market), and JPST (ultra-short income ETF with monthly payouts). Serge advocates for thoughtful portfolio allocation and risk management in turbulent markets.

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline." These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices. The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others), addressing the reasons behind individual investor underperformance. Welcome to the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast hosted by Serge Berger. Are you ready to become a better, more successful, and open-minded trader and investor? I'm Serge Berger, head trader and investment strategist at thestudytrader.com, and I'm here to help you reach your goals. Whether you're new to investing or a seasoned pro, this podcast will guide you through the noise and help you focus on the big picture. We'll share research, guest interviews, and real-time market analysis. Today, we have a special guest, Brian Terry, who's been working with me for several years. We run the steady trader, a credit spread authority, and an option service. We recently launched a covered call service and have a fiduciary advisory firm called Blue Marlin Advisors. As we navigate the market's critical juncture, we'll address the prevailing bullish sentiment. The markets have seen a steep rise, but it's essential to remain cautious and not get caught in overexposed positions. We anticipate a possible rotation out of technology and into other sectors that haven't participated as much. So let's stay informed, keep our long-term goals in mind, and be ready for potential shifts in the market. Thanks for tuning in, and see you in the next episode!