Top of Mind

Mike Simonsen

Top of Mind is the show where real estate industry insiders dive into the big trends shaping the market today. read less
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Episodes

The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates with FHFA’s Jonah Coste
4d ago
The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates with FHFA’s Jonah Coste
In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Jonah Coste from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) to talk about the impact of the mortgage rate “lock-in” effect: where homeowners with low mortgage rates are unwilling to sell and purchase another home at much higher rates. Jonah shares the findings from FHFA’s recent study on this phenomenon - including the fact that for every percentage point that mortgage rates exceed the origination interest rate, the probability of sale is decreased by 18.1% - and details how this impacts home prices, affordability, and mobility. He also gives his take on whether the lock-in effect has already peaked, and how quickly it may recede from here. About Jonah Coste Jonah Coste conducts research on housing and mortgage markets at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and is especially interested in topics related to household decision-making and housing supply. He also has experience working on consumer finance topics at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from George Washington University and his B.S. in Computational Finance from Carnegie Mellon University. Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn:  What the mortgage rate lock-in effect is, how it’s measured, and why it’s important Key findings from the FHFA report, including how the lock-in effect decreases home sales and leads to higher prices The impact of the lock-in effect on mobility, choice, and affordability How California’s Prop 13 and other lock-in mechanisms prevent home sales How low rates created $3 trillion of net benefit to homeowners, and why we only get that benefit if we stay in our homes Whether the lock-in effect has already peaked, and how quickly it recedes from here Reasons why 2024 and 2025 may see expanding sales rates despite this lock-in effect Some reasons to be optimistic about affordability in the coming years Resources mentioned in this episode: Connect with Jonah on LinkedIn Federal Housing Finance Agency Working Paper 24-03: The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates Mike Simonsen on LinkedIn Altos Research Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets. Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights: Altos on Twitter Mike on Twitter About Altos Research The Top of Mind Podcast is produced by Altos Research. Each week, Altos tracks every home for sale in the country - all the pricing, and all the changes in pricing - and synthesizes those analytics to make them available before becoming visible through traditional channels. Schedule a demo to see Altos in action. You can also get a copy of our free eBook: How To Use Market Data to Build Your Real Estate Business.
Data-Driven Housing Policy with AEI’s Ed Pinto
Mar 13 2024
Data-Driven Housing Policy with AEI’s Ed Pinto
In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Ed Pinto, senior fellow and co-director of the AEI Housing Center at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), for a fascinating look at how housing policy shapes the market and the world we live in. Tapping into his decades of experience in the housing and mortgage markets, Ed shares lessons from the 2008 bubble we can apply to today, uses data to examine the relative merits of different housing policies over the years, and gives his take on how to tackle affordability and homelessness. He also talks about why he’s optimistic about the housing market in the years to come. About Ed Pinto Edward J. Pinto is a senior fellow and co-director of the AEI Housing Center at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). A focus of his work continues to be the role of federal housing policy in the 2008 mortgage and financial crisis and how federal housing policy continues to create unwelcome distortions in the housing markets. More recently his research has focused on using light touch density to increase the supply of naturally affordable and inclusionary housing. Before joining AEI, Mr. Pinto was an executive vice president and chief credit officer for Fannie Mae until the late 1980s. Today, he is frequently interviewed on radio and television and often testifies before Congress. His writings have been published in trade publications and the popular press, including in the American Banker, The Hill, RealClearPolitics, and The Wall Street Journal. In addition, as the director of the AEI Housing Center, he oversees the monthly publication of the AEI Housing Market Indicators, which has replaced AEI’s monthly Housing Risk Watch and AEI’s FHA Watch.  Mr. Pinto has a JD from Indiana University Maurer School of Law and a BA from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn:  What data is best to use for understanding housing in the U.S. The biggest lessons of the 2008 bubble and what they tell us about today The real impacts of over a decade of low-interest rates Whether there’s a correction in home prices on the horizon How Federal government policy from 100 years ago seeded the affordability crisis of today Why affordability is so difficult for the government to solve When the government should stimulate housing demand, and when they shouldn’t What today’s mortgage environment tells us about the risks of mortgage defaults Why the McMansion boom is the result of poor city planning What cities should know about fixing homelessness What he’s optimistic about in American housing in the next decade Resources mentioned in this episode: Connect with Ed on LinkedIn American Enterprise Institute Mike Simonsen on LinkedIn Altos Research Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets. Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights: Altos on Twitter Mike on Twitter About Altos Research The Top of Mind Podcast is produced by Altos Research. Each week, Altos tracks every home for sale in the country - all the pricing, and all the changes in pricing - and synthesizes those analytics to make them available before becoming visible through traditional channels. Schedule a demo to see Altos in action. You can also get a copy of our free eBook: How To Use Market Data to Build Your Real Estate Business.
Economic Trendspotting with Bloomberg’s Conor Sen
Feb 28 2024
Economic Trendspotting with Bloomberg’s Conor Sen
In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Bloomberg’s Conor Sen to talk about the big economic trends shaping the housing market. Conor shares his views on what to expect with interest rates, pinpoints key areas for strength in the economy, and looks at demographic shifts that will impact the housing market in the coming years. He also offers his take on how the election could affect the economy and what to watch for. About Conor Sen Conor Sen is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist who writes about financial markets, the economy, housing, cities, and demographics. He’s also the founder of Peachtree Creek Investments and has more than a decade of experience in portfolio management and risk management. Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn:  What to expect for interest rates this year and why The key areas for strength in the economy and what that means for 2024 What a shifting labor market means for real estate Recession risks and how to anticipate it Whether the “Vibecession” is over and we’re now in “Vibespansion” Why there is still room for supply chain improvements to help the economy How shifting millennial demographics will impact housing over the next 5 years When Boomers will finally sell their homes Why higher migration is a big theme right now, and what that means for housing and the economy Why home builders can finally “play offense” for the first time since 2005 Election year impacts we should watch for Resources mentioned in this episode: Connect with Conor on LinkedIn Bloomberg Mike Simonsen on LinkedIn Altos Research Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets. Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights: Altos on Twitter Mike on Twitter About Altos Research The Top of Mind Podcast is produced by Altos Research. Each week, Altos tracks every home for sale in the country - all the pricing, and all the changes in pricing - and synthesizes those analytics to make them available before becoming visible through traditional channels. Schedule a demo to see Altos in action. You can also get a copy of our free eBook: How To Use Market Data to Build Your Real Estate Business.
Deep Dive on the Short-Term Rental Market with AirDNA’s Jamie Lane
Feb 14 2024
Deep Dive on the Short-Term Rental Market with AirDNA’s Jamie Lane
In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Jamie Lane, Chief Economist at AirDNA, for a deep dive into the fascinating dynamics of the short-term rental (STR) market. Jamie shares how real-time STR data can help us forecast economic and housing market conditions, talks about how short-term rentals impact the hotel and travel industries, and gives us insights into how to understand the so-called “Airbnb Bust.” He also discusses which markets no longer work well for STRs, and the challenges and opportunities of STRs as an investor asset class. About Jamie Lane Jamie Lane is the Chief Economist and SVP of Research at AirDNA, the go-to source for short-term rental data and insights. With 10+ years of experience as an economist in the hospitality industry, Jamie’s research leadership has helped the whole STR industry understand the drivers of success. Jamie is a leading voice of authority on the health and outlook for the STR industry: on top of co-hosting AirDNA’s own podcast, the STR Data Lab, he is a regular contributor to international media outlets such as Wall Street Journal, New York Times and Bloomberg, providing exclusive analysis and forecasts of the industry to global audiences. His contributions to the STR space and dedication to promoting data-driven decision-making to the forefront of the industry were recognized in 2023 with the Innovator/Disruptor award at the highly regarded Shortyz Awards. At the forefront of AirDNA’s research, Jamie continuously provides accurate data insights to guide hosts through each decision point in their journey. Before joining AirDNA, Jamie spent 10 years at CBRE, leading research, forecasting, and data intelligence teams to support client analysis. Jamie holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the University of Georgia and a Master of Science in Business Economics from Georgia State University. Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn:  What the real-time STR data tells us about the economy for 2024 Which AirDNA stats are leading indicators for the future of the housing market How to understand the so-called “Airbnb Bust” How STRs impact traditional hotels’ occupancy rates and prices What hotel data tells us about the future of STRs How STRs grow the travel industry Which signals for 2024 are bullish for STRs, and which are bearish Risks to the STR industry Which markets no longer work well for STRs The challenges and opportunities of STR as an investor asset class Good policy and bad policy for STRs and ADUs Resources mentioned in this episode: Connect with Jamie on LinkedIn AirDNA Mike Simonsen on LinkedIn Altos Research Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets. Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights: Altos on Twitter Mike on Twitter About Altos Research The Top of Mind Podcast is produced by Altos Research. Each week, Altos tracks every home for sale in the country - all the pricing, and all the changes in pricing - and synthesizes those analytics to make them available before becoming visible through traditional channels. Schedule a demo to see Altos in action. You can also get a copy of our free eBook: How To Use Market Data to Build Your Real Estate Business.
CoreLogic’s Selma Hepp’s Forecast for the 2024 Housing Market
Jan 24 2024
CoreLogic’s Selma Hepp’s Forecast for the 2024 Housing Market
In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, to get her take on what’s happening in the housing economy. Selma shares CoreLogic’s forecast for 2024 home prices and mortgage rates, talks about the biggest surprises from 2023, and offers insights into how they hit the mark on their 2023 forecast when everyone else was expecting prices to fall. She also discusses CoreLogic’s new Climate Risk Analysis platform and the growing impact of insurance costs in risky states. About Selma Hepp Selma Hepp is the Chief Economist for CoreLogic, America’s largest provider of advanced property and ownership information, analytics and data-enabled services. Selma leads the economics team, which is responsible for analyzing, interpreting and forecasting housing and economic trends in real estate, mortgage and insurance. Prior to joining CoreLogic in 2020, Selma was Chief Economist and Vice President of Business Intelligence for Pacific Union International, later acquired by Compass, where she oversaw the vital economic and technology intelligence to drive the expanding brokerage’s success. Selma also held the role of Chief Economist for Trulia; Senior Economist for the California Association of Realtors; and Economist and Manager for Public Policy and Homeownership research for the National Association of Realtors, as well as a special research assistant at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Selma frequently appears on local and national radio and television programs and has been widely quoted in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times and many industry trade publications such as National Mortgage News and HousingWire. Selma received the HousingWire Women of Influence Award in 2022. Selma graduated from the State University of New York, Buffalo with an M.A. in Economics and holds a Ph.D. from the University of Maryland. Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn:  CoreLogic’s 2024 home price & mortgage rate forecast Why their 2023 forecast for slight home price appreciation was so unusual at the time, and yet it turned out to be precisely correct Other big housing market surprises from 2023 Her biggest takeaways for 2024, including how much the mortgage market will rebound this year and why The surprising strength in refis in 2024 Her take on the most important trends in housing policy for 2024 What she’s worried about macro-economically and with housing in particular over the near future Why Phoenix and Las Vegas outperformed Austin last year - even when all were big boom markets during the pandemic Key findings from CoreLogic’s Quarterly investor report CoreLogic’s new Climate Risk Analysis platform and the growing impact of insurance costs in risky states. Resources mentioned in this episode: Connect with Selma on LinkedIn CoreLogic Mike Simonsen on LinkedIn Altos Research Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets. Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights: Altos on Twitter Mike on Twitter About Altos Research The Top of Mind Podcast is produced by Altos Research. Each week, Altos tracks every home for sale in the country - all the pricing, and all the changes in pricing - and synthesizes those analytics to make them available before becoming visible through traditional channels. Schedule a demo to see Altos in action. You can also get a copy of our free eBook: How To Use Market Data to Build Your Real Estate Business.
Lessons from a Top 1% Agent with LabCoat’s Tristan Ahumada
Jan 10 2024
Lessons from a Top 1% Agent with LabCoat’s Tristan Ahumada
In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Tristan Ahumada from LabCoat Agents to talk about how agents should be using social media and other marketing tools to build their business in 2024. Tristan shares what he learned as a leader on Facebook’s real estate market advisory board, offers tips on how to use Altos reports with clients, and discusses his high-impact, values-based social media strategy. He also gives his take on what the next 10 years will look like for real estate agents and the business. About Tristan Ahumada Tristan Ahumada became Rookie of the Year at Century 21 at age twenty-four, his first year in the real estate business. He is now in the top 1% of all real estate agents in the U.S. Tristan also created LabCoat Agents in 2014 as a Facebook group and has grown the popular social media page to over 137,000 members. He is the CEO and founder of A Brilliant Tribe, an online community builder and social media strategy company. Tristan strives to help people throughout the world as a Fortune 500 consultant, leadership and growth coach, and a People editor for Success Magazine. Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn:  How Tristan built the largest Realtor social media group - LabCoat Agents with 137,000 members - and Realtor newsletter with 500,000 subscribers What he learned as a leader on Facebook’s real estate market advisory board How he uses Altos reports with clients, including fun social media ideas His values-based social media strategy, and how other agents can adopt it Why the algorithm “favors the extreme,” and what that means for his approach His Like, Comment, Message process for social media growth Why Google is still better for paid ads than social media How he leverages AI in his work with clients and his team What the next 10 years will look like for real estate agents and the business Resources mentioned in this episode: Connect with Tristan on LinkedIn LabCoat Agents Altos Research Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets. Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights: Altos on Twitter Mike on Twitter About Altos Research The Top of Mind Podcast is produced by Altos Research. Each week, Altos tracks every home for sale in the country - all the pricing, and all the changes in pricing - and synthesizes those analytics to make them available before becoming visible through traditional channels. Schedule a demo to see Altos in action. You can also get a copy of our free eBook: How To Use Market Data to Build Your Real Estate Business.