the Joshua Schall Audio Experience

Trump is back…but should stakeholders operating within the intersecting CPG categories of functional foods, functional beverages, and nutritional supplements be cheerful about his return to the oval office? This will certainly not sound like a “hot take” or anything, but the second Trump presidential term will undoubtedly offer a mixture of risk and reward…ushering in a new era of market volatility. As press secretary Karoline Leavitt recently pointed out, "there has never been a president who communicates with the American people as openly and authentically as Donald Trump.” But while I personally enjoy that operating model…it does create an economic environment that I recently described to an industry colleague as “best suited for master sailors.” And that’s because the art of both the sailor (and businessperson) is to leave nothing to chance…but sailors are artists whose medium is the wind and today’s businesspeople must be artists whose medium is correctly spotting Donald Trump’s subtle hints that reveal upcoming events. Furthermore, I believe a key to potentially benefitting from the Trump 2.0 “driver of demand” requires understanding how to position against a few of his known (but converging) “the art of the deal” tendencies. And these would be (1) a little hyperbole never hurts, (2) confirm an impression they were already predisposed to believe, (3) never get too attached to one deal or one approach, and (4) sometimes your best decisions are the ones you don’t make. Finally, it’s extremely important to consider rate of speed and level of efficiency surrounding Trump 2.0 changes. Since this is a “been here, done that” kind of thing, Trump won’t fumble through the initial phase of his term he will have a better understanding around bottlenecks and getting around chokepoints…including how to flex unilateral powers. Also, given that the House and Senate are Republican majorities (at least for the next two years), that political trifecta usually creates efficiency and makes for stickier policy changes. But the inspiration behind my latest first principles thinking content piece (or I guess content miniseries) was a Trump 2.0 section titled “rhetoric foreshadowing action is greater than embellished negotiation tactics” that I included into many of functional CPG brand and supply side client presentations during the last quarter of 2024. And while each of those client presentations were packed with diverse personalized insights…I’m confident this “Trump 2.0” content miniseries, filled with a refined (and expanded) version of my generalized “base case” strategies, will be extremely valuable to my regular audience. So, just to set the stage…you can expect this “Trump 2.0” content miniseries to initially include four loosely titled parts; regulatory, global trade, financial, and commerce. And I figured part two of this Trump 2.0 content miniseries should be “global trade" because he made imposing tariffs central to his economic program. Moreover, with most functional CPG inputs (whether various ingredients or raw materials) coming from countries of origin outside the United States (and China having near monopolies currently on many portions of those inputs), these tariffs can materially affect two key elements (pricing and overall supply stability). And that means industry stakeholders don't share the same overwhelming level of optimism (and excitement) they’ve expressed surrounding Trump’s health agency selections.

Trump is back…but should stakeholders operating within the intersecting CPG categories of functional foods, functional beverages, and nutritional supplements be cheerful about his return to the oval office? This will certainly not sound like a “hot take” or anything, but the second Trump presidential term will undoubtedly offer a mixture of risk and reward…ushering in a new era of market volatility. As press secretary Karoline Leavitt recently pointed out, "there has never been a president who communicates with the American people as openly and authentically as Donald Trump.” But while I personally enjoy that operating model…it does create an economic environment that I recently described to an industry colleague as “best suited for master sailors.” And that’s because the art of both the sailor (and businessperson) is to leave nothing to chance…but sailors are artists whose medium is the wind and today’s businesspeople must be artists whose medium is correctly spotting Donald Trump’s subtle hints that reveal upcoming events. Furthermore, I believe a key to potentially benefitting from the Trump 2.0 “driver of demand” requires understanding how to position against a few of his known (but converging) “the art of the deal” tendencies. And these would be (1) a little hyperbole never hurts, (2) confirm an impression they were already predisposed to believe, (3) never get too attached to one deal or one approach, and (4) sometimes your best decisions are the ones you don’t make. Finally, it’s extremely important to consider rate of speed and level of efficiency surrounding Trump 2.0 changes. Since this is a “been here, done that” kind of thing, Trump won’t fumble through the initial phase of his term he will have a better understanding around bottlenecks and getting around chokepoints…including how to flex unilateral powers. Also, given that the House and Senate are Republican majorities (at least for the next two years), that political trifecta usually creates efficiency and makes for stickier policy changes. But the inspiration behind my latest first principles thinking content piece (or I guess content miniseries) was a Trump 2.0 section titled “rhetoric foreshadowing action is greater than embellished negotiation tactics” that I included into many of functional CPG brand and supply side client presentations during the last quarter of 2024. And while each of those client presentations were packed with diverse personalized insights…I’m confident this “Trump 2.0” content miniseries, filled with a refined (and expanded) version of my generalized “base case” strategies, will be extremely valuable to my regular audience. So, just to set the stage…you can expect this “Trump 2.0” content miniseries to initially include four loosely titled parts; regulatory, global trade, financial, and commerce. And I figured part one of this Trump 2.0 content miniseries should be “regulatory,” mostly because there's arguably no more impactful leadership change to functional CPG stakeholders than with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) cabinet position. And while I’ll tackle several other regulatory agencies in this part, such as the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the primary focus will be on potential effects from changes within the HHS health agencies (i.e. FDA) made by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and his Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) principles.

Have you seen the prices of whey protein isolate lately? Explaining the multitude of factors causing record high commodity inflation would take longer than the allowable video length, but maybe I have a better solution for our current broken food system. Plantible uses proprietary technology to grow duckweed on aqua farms in West Texas that’s efficiently extracted into a complete protein called “Rubi Protein.” According to the food technology startup, Rubi Protein has diverse functional CPG applications because it has high solubility, moisture retention, fat binding capacity, and outperforms egg whites in both foam capacity and stability. If only I knew earlier that saving money on protein shakes was as easy as jumping into the small lake behind my home (and consuming all those small flowering aquatic plants). Moreover, it was just announced that through its corporate venture capital arm Cultivate Next, the fast-casual chain Chipotle Mexican Grill has made a minority investment in Plantible. So, are aquatic plants the next hot ingredient in the plant-based space? Chipotle seems to think so...

If there was a Super Bowl for convenient nutrition brands…Premier Protein would be considered the Kansas City Chiefs of the functional CPG category. BellRing Brands (NYSE: BRBR) is a portfolio that owns a collection of convenient nutrition brands like Premier Protein and Dymatize Nutrition, which was previously wholly-owned by Post Holdings. A fast-paced and busy lifestyle is pushing consumers to switch to quick and healthy meal options. This has resulted in above average categorical growth rates and increased household penetration of RTD protein shakes that promote active lifestyles. Additionally, powders are becoming more mainstream, and category proliferation has created an environment where more consumers are purchasing both every day and performance nutrition positioned protein products at grocery stores and mass retailers. Bellring Brands had a strong 2025 Q1 with net sales reaching $532.9 million, which was up 23.8% YoY. Premier Protein (~90% of BellRing Brands total revenue) grew 26.3% YoY, which came from mostly volume increases. Dymatize Nutrition was up 12.6% YoY, stemming from volume increases within international markets. In response to these elevated sports nutrition competitive threats, BellRing Brands has attempted to invest further into Dymatize brand marketing (i.e. utilization with NFL star running back Christian McCaffrey) and restarting product innovation (i.e. pre-workout energy powder and RTD protein beverages leveraging Pebbles cereal). Moreover, I provide three deep dives into the functional CPG portfolio's "hero SKU families" of Premier Protein RTD protein shakes and Premier Protein and Dymatize protein powders. But my latest first principles thinking content will explain my usage of that specific NFL analogy in the introductory statement. And while the most obvious connection would be that BellRing Brands corporate headquarters is located within St. Louis, Missouri (and the Rams relocating almost a decade ago it makes the Kansas City Chiefs the “local team"), a more hidden connection would be that both brands have dominated their respective “sports” of late…and much like the Kansas City Chiefs are attempting to win their third Super Bowl in a row, BellRing Brands (because of primarily Premier Protein) is hoping to reach its own version of a three-peat. And if analyzing the trailing twelve months BellRing Brands net sales activity, the brand portfolio has now successfully reached the $2 billion milestone (and is well on its way to reaching $3 billion in net sales). So, why do I believe the Premier Protein “three-peat” is almost guaranteed at this point?

Whether dumping Tapatio into its whey protein or getting the most famous British girl group to become advisors is the ultimate answer…THG Nutrition must do something to “spice up” its strategy! THG (aka the company formerly known as The Hut Group) recently updated the public markets by releasing its 2024 Q4 interim trading statement. I’ll be utilizing that financial information, along with notes I took listening to the earnings conference call, and any relevant publicly disclosed information to obviously update you on the recent performance of THG Nutrition division that includes the world's largest online sports nutrition brand MyProtein, but also utilize everything to provide insights surrounding the global supplement markets. For those unaware, after the THG Ingenuity demerger...THG would now be described as a global, cash generative, health and wellness consumer brands group. During the fourth quarter of 2024, divisional revenue for THG Nutrition was approximately $181 million, which was down 9.5% YoY. If we look at entire full-year of 2024, THG Nutrition didn’t perform much better…generating revenue of approximately $722 million, which was down 8.7% YoY. So, what’s up with these poor growth rates when the overall global supplement market continues to grow? I'll dive into several strategic decisions impacting MyProtein including: its global digital sales channel strategy and retail partnerships in physical retail, and let’s just say A LOT is riding on the success of the MyProtein global rebrand. Early results of the biggest rebrand in the 20-year history of MyProtein is said to be promising with brand awareness, consideration, and perception all demonstrating YoY improvements. More importantly though…THG Nutrition leadership needs to pay close attention to key commercial metrics over the next year because to continue moving upstream in positioning (and unlocking sales channel diversification opportunities within the American market) it needs to ensure this rebranding decision is well received by and generates brand affinity with those less price-sensitive customers. But the final portion of my latest first principles thinking content will analyze how the THG Ingenuity demerger will directly (and potentially indirectly) impact THG Nutrition. With the projected significantly improved free cashflow profile, providing MyProtein with expansive strategic optionality...I'm examine likely areas of benefit like increased brand marketing investments and offsetting whey protein commodity market price inflation that has been happening over the last year.

Data insights company Circana just released its year-end recap analysis (and outlook) for the global retail food and beverage industry. To save you time (and a few headaches) from all that reading, I’ve compiled my top takeaways from that dense presentation. The first is that consumers are adopting more selective buying habits in hopes of making more room for discretionary items. Moreover, that’s manifesting itself in shifting shopping patterns…as consumers are making more trips but buying fewer items per trip. Another key takeaway is that consumers are driven by a demand for value…thus choosing to shop online for groceries isn’t only because of convenience but also that it provides price transparency. And then finally, Circana expects another period of low single-digit YoY dollar sales growth in 2025…despite a predicted “modest slowdown” in economic conditions. FOLLOW ME ON MY SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNTS ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LINKEDIN⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YOUTUBE⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TWITTER⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠INSTAGRAM⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FACEBOOK⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Ferrero Group recently announced it had signed an agreement to acquire Power Crunch. But why would the one of the world's largest sweet-packaged food companies acquire Power Crunch? Ferrero Group is no different than other multinational confectionary giants from Hershey’s to Mondelez and Mars, as involvement within the bar format of convenient nutrition is not abnormal (whether entering through M&A activity or brand extension development). In fact, Power Crunch isn’t even the first deal by Ferrero Group that involved a brand selling nutritional (and/or protein) bars…as they bought the brand Eat Natural in late-2020 and FULFIL Nutrition in mid-2022. And while this Power Crunch deal signals to me that Ferrero Group wants to own substantial market share within the wellbeing snacking space…don’t just take my word for it. In the press release, both Kevin Lawrence (Power Crunch founder) and Ferrero Group leadership included quotes that referenced ambitions around wellbeing snacking categorical growth…focusing on quality craftsmanship, distinctive products, and thoughtful investment. And maybe that's really why Ferrero Group targeted Power Crunch. The protein bar market (like the entire supplement industry) has mostly a “sea of sameness” composition. But where the protein bar (or functional foods space in general) varies is that differentiation can be derived from having a unique form factor. Furthermore, if that unique form factor proves popular…a competitive advantage can be created through defensibility if you own/created that manufacturing process. And as part of the transaction, Ferrero Group will take over a California facility and absorb approximately 50 employees…with my assumption being that these were key operational assets (and human capital). But while the form factor of Power Crunch is unique it's not 100% proprietary (with an increase of crème-filled wafer crisp style competitors lately). But in a contract manufacturing “follow the leader” dominated category like protein bars you’d expect to see many more competitors. Additionally, when a billion-dollar active nutrition brand like Optimum Nutrition tries (and fails) within a short timeframe to make a similar wafer style form factor successful…it likely tells you (1) the production difficulty level and (2) consumers believe the superior taste and texture of Power Crunch creates a high enough switching cost to sustain its market share. But while financial details of the M&A transaction were not disclosed, some rough “napkin math,” Power Crunch is about one-third the size of Quest Nutrition and about the same size as FitCrunch that was just acquired by 1440 Foods. And while those transaction details were also not made public, I’d estimate the FitCrunch valuation to be slightly higher because of the stronger growth rates and larger manufacturing facilities…partially offset by the fact that private equity was involved (compared to Ferrero Group being a strategic). But then finally, Power Crunch is about seven times larger than the U.S. market size of the other Ferrero Group protein bar brand FULFIL…though the bulk of their historical revenue has been generated in the UK/Europe and I believe the brand has massive upside in the coming years. But in my latest first principles thinking content, I'll also consider what could be next for Power Crunch, as Ferrero Group will be faced with a depth or breadth strategic decision.

After getting ghosted, Anheuser-Busch puts together a deal that no one saw coming [well almost no one]. But maybe why this deal news announcement by Anheuser-Busch caught so many off guard was that (even being in market more than two years now) the trailing twelve months of tracked channel retail sales for the 1st Phorm Energy drink would rank them just inside the Top 50 energy drink brands in the U.S. market. But as you'll hear in the content, even if comparative growth rates were sharply increasing (proving that the thoughtful independent DSD network buildout and retail go-to-market plan was working), those retail sales metrics weren’t going to be one of the primary reasons behind the new partnership announced a few weeks ago. In the press release, it noted that the new partnership aimed at fueling new innovations within the rapidly growing energy drinks and related functional beverage segments. And the partnership’s initial energy product was expected to come to market by this upcoming summer 2025 and to be distributed by the Anheuser-Busch network of wholesaler partners. Moreover, a fun little extra detail was that the partnership would also include sports and entertainment mogul Dana White…who if you didn’t realize has had success in the beverage world (selling minority interest of his Howler Head whiskey brand a few years ago to Campari Group). But for my latest first principles thinking content, I'll analyze what this announcement means for all involved stakeholders (including the U.S. energy drinks market implications).

Why did the U.S. subsidiary that owns Stoli vodka (and many other alcohol brands) recently filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection? The most obvious answer is that everyone in America has stopped drinking alcohol, right? But if only every complex question could be answered plain and simple! Unfortunately, this is a dark tale twisted in time that arguably started with a countertrade agreement that eventually involved Pepsi owning a fleet of Soviet military ships. No really…watch the related video I tagged. But things never seemed less complicated with Stoli (even into the 2000s), as its billionaire owner was exiled from his home country because of opposition to President Vladimir Putin. And if that wasn’t bad enough, an ongoing legal battle with Russia (and recent cyber-attack) left the company’s finances and global operations in dismay…thus providing the more complicated answer around bankruptcy.

Private label CPG is growing…and fast! Many will point to continued inflation as the major support for consumers switching to private-label alternatives, but what if it stems from a grocery retail CAPEX investment theme that started a decade earlier? Consider the digitalization of supermarkets…facial recognition cameras, AI-powered smart carts, smartphone apps, and I could keep going, but harnessing this Big Data can certainly help grocers create better private label products. So, yes…grocery retailers have been investing heavily into private label product innovation, brand development, and incremental store placement. But what’s feeding those new private labels (like Walmart’s bettergoods) that look, taste, and are positioned more like trendy emerging CPG brands…are those supermarkets now having access a mountain of new valuable consumer data points. And to be completely honest…that should scare the hell out of CPG brands. FOLLOW ME ON MY SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNTS ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LINKEDIN⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YOUTUBE⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TWITTER⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠INSTAGRAM⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FACEBOOK⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Looking back is a source of inspiration…rather than a sign of stagnation. But if there is no progress…there must be decline, right? Yet, I’m sure we’re all astutely aware of trend cycles across various forms of cultural expression. And one of my personal favorites can be seen through the Hip Hop music I grew up listening to. And that’s because Hip Hop music isn’t just inspired by jazz and soul…it’s made by recycling and reimagining snippets from those classic records. In fact, the art of music sampling is what inspired one of my most used strategic mantras said countless times throughout my content…everything is a remix of the past. And I’ll probably keep needing to say it until my face turns blue, but if you want to create something that has a lasting impact on today’s CPG world, it needs to be combo of “new” yet “familiar.” Do something too closely related to the market leader and consumers won’t take notice…but do something too novel and they’re confused. Within the CPG industry, most successful products do not arrive out of nowhere; they’re remixes that recycle and reimagine existing (or past) snippets. And while I’d argue that “remixing” has always been an effective product strategy… there’s maybe a “driver of demand” that has been strengthened because of recent economic cycles that went from “goldilocks business era” of the 2010s to the "Great Shutdown" and then finally the highest rate of food inflation since the early 1980s. Currently, value-seeking shopping behavior is creating a smaller “margin of error” overall for CPG brands…which could be partly why the total number of new products launched has been decreasing with each year. And it’s not only the total number of new CPG products…but the proportion of “Big I innovation” compared to “Little I innovation.” So, maybe what consumers are demonstrating is that there’s room for new…but priority is being placed on modern versions of proven CPG products. Or as I’m about to detail, proven functional ingredients utilized within my deep domain expertise…which is the emerging and intersecting CPG categories of functional foods, functional beverages, and nutritional supplements. Is it just me or have you noticed this “rebirth of functional ingredients” phenomenon happening (it seems) more frequently (or maybe more noticeably) of late? And my latest first principles thinking content will explore how new ideas, ingredients, formats, and other elements may come and go…but some variables will perpetually stay and become foundational to the ways in which we consume. But if we’re talking about functional ingredients, it requires a scientific flywheel that’s still spinning quickly! And that’s because while many functional ingredients were popularized within that shadowy niche of sports nutrition, an ever-growing body of research with positive results has broadened use cases and expanded demographics…making them almost must-have staples for everyone. I'll share successful examples like collagen peptides, creatine, colostrum, and I predict HMB next! Whether its because of the growing healthy longevity trend or “Age of Ozempic” craze…mainstream society has a greater understanding around the importance of muscle health and strength.

When you read the headline “Jenny Craig owner acquires Ancient Nutrition,” it might leave you befuddled…but what if I told you everything actually makes perfect sense? Wellful was essentially created in 2021 when Kainos Capital, a middle-market consumer products focused private equity firm, merged the direct-to-consumer weight management meal solution brand Nutrisystem with the supplement brand portfolio Adaptive Health. But then you need to know that Adaptive Health was formed when Direct Digital acquired the supplement brand portfolio Healthy Directions. And hopefully you’re still keeping up…but you’d finally need to know that Healthy Directions was created in the early 1990s after newsletter readers began calling Phillips Publishing to find out where they could buy the nutritional products recommended by its doctors. The earliest products (and supplement brands) that made up Healthy Directions were all developed by some of America’s most recognized doctors. Can you see where I’m going with this “connect the dots” game now? Who was the co-founder (and face) of Ancient Nutrition? That would be functional medicine, digestive health, and herbal remedies expert Dr. Josh Axe. And if you’re wondering how Jenny Craig got tossed into my introduction…Wellful acquired the weight management brand in mid-2023. The acquisition of Ancient Nutrition is said to further strengthen Wellful’s presence in various supplement categories and expand its distribution footprint into the natural retail channel. Ancient Nutrition was founded in 2016 by the beforementioned Dr. Josh Axe and Jordan Rubin (who also founded Garden of Life…a supplement brand that was acquired by Nestle). And while Ancient Nutrition offers around 200 SKUs now…it’s early “claim to fame” was pioneering Bone Broth Protein supplementation that delivered the benefits of homemade bone broth in a convenient, easy-to-mix form. But transporting back to the late-2010s, Ancient Nutrition was definitely responsible for driving key paleo, collagen, and grass-fed supplement trends across all sales channels. Moreover, Ancient Nutrition became a top-selling protein brand within the natural channel and one of the fastest-growing supplement brands overall. And that immense level of early success led private equity firms VMG Partners and Hillhouse to invest $103 million into Ancient Nutrition. But during these almost seven years since that huge capital injection, I’d call the brand’s journey fascinating…but it’s important to understand that word could have vastly diverse meaning depending on the stakeholder. And my latest first principles thinking content will explain what I meant by that statement...along with examine what Wellful is trying to accomplish with its portfolio architecture. FOLLOW ME ON MY SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNTS ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LINKEDIN⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YOUTUBE⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TWITTER⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠INSTAGRAM⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FACEBOOK⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

What I’d consider traditional AI has already been built into many backend aspects of the CPG industry, but what about generative AI? I like to describe the ideal CPG industry AI scenario by using an analogy involving NFL offensive lineman. While these players are absolutely essential for success, you typically only acknowledge them when there’s a holding penalty. In the same manner, generative AI will become vital for CPG brands to win long-term. But it’s probably not from the gimmicky or cringy ways it’s being paraded around currently within the industry. Do consumers really want an AI-assisted Coca-Cola flavor? Or should Unilever call out that it’s using AI to predict and optimize the shelf life of products? While these might not be high-risk applications of AI, I believe consumers aren’t exactly sold on the “in your face” auto-generated CPG product future. FOLLOW ME ON MY SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNTS ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LINKEDIN⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YOUTUBE⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TWITTER⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠INSTAGRAM⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FACEBOOK⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Quest Nutrition might possess much more revenue diversification compared to when it was acquired more than five years ago, but that doesn’t mean the Quest Bar has become any less of an important piece of the brand’s multibillion-dollar growth puzzle today. In this latest episode, I'll utilize the Q1 2025 Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ: SMPL) earnings report, earnings call, and supplemental presentations that were filed on 1/8/2025 as the backdrop to provide broad nutritional snacking market insights. In fiscal Q1 2025, Atkins Nutritionals brand dragged down the overall portfolio performance, as Quest Nutrition beat categorical competitors in tracked channel retail takeaway (up 10% YoY). What's at the heart of the Quest Nutrition success? Quest Nutrition is still known for the original Quest Bar. And that means the company needs the bar business to be healthy for any of this innovation risk to make sense. But while Quest bar has positive growth, recent performance is lagging internal expectations a new protein bar innovation should launch in February called Quest Overload. Additionally, Quest Nutrition has proven it's one of the few brands that can successfully extend across multiple product forms...and its customer base expects them to come into an indulgent snacking category and flip it into great tasting (high protein, low sugar) offerings. The snacks segment of Quest Nutrition, which now accounts for almost half of all retail sales, saw retail takeaway growth increase 19%. But if we analyze one layer deeper…the salty side of the Quest snacks segment had quarterly retail takeaway growth of about 26%. Quest chips now represent about 25% of the total Quest Nutrition revenue and provide a substantial share of new users to the brand. And I’ve been a broken record when it comes to stating that salty snacks are where the excitement (and focus) should be placed within Quest Nutrition, but it’s important to remember that any of this innovation risk only makes sense if the bar business continues to be healthy. So, while it was a higher proportion in 2019…the bar segment still accounts for about half of the total Quest Nutrition revenue. And that’s why Quest Nutrition hasn’t shied away from innovation (or renovation) activities over the recent years…from enrobed variants, mini sizes, revamping formulations, and now launching the “overload” bar platform. Also, I run through what's causing the weak brand performance at Atkins and explain actions the company is taking to change it…especially against the backdrop of GLP-1 weight loss solutions. In my opinion, you’re going to see weight management brands like Atkins (and others) get repositioned on the right side of GLP-1 second-order effects through both product innovation (e.g. Atkins strong)...but most of the “innovation” will come in the targeted communication marketing strategies. Finally, OWYN had quarterly retail takeaway growth of 67% YoY. Based on revenue growth models, Simply Good Foods leadership expects OWYN fiscal 2025 net sales to be in the $135 million to $145 million range. FOLLOW ME ON MY SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNTS ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LINKEDIN⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YOUTUBE⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TWITTER⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠INSTAGRAM⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FACEBOOK⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

I’d like to thank the Austin Business Journal for carrying on this decade-long tradition of sporadically mentioning Nutrabolt IPO rumors after each new major business milestone has been reached. The first IPO rumors showed up in an August 2014 PricePlow blog post…after it noticed a spike in search traffic related to Nutrabolt receiving a significant minority investment from private equity firm, MidOcean Partners. Then, at the end of 2022…I predicted Nutrabolt would go public within the next year after receiving an $863 million investment from Keurig Dr Pepper. But what major business milestone did Nutrabolt recently reach that restarted this IPO rumors heading into 2025? Nutrabolt just exceeded one billion dollars in trailing twelve months retail sales data. And you might be wondering…how elusive is that feat? Within the ingestible CPG categories of food, beverage, and supplements…there’s only about 80 total brands that currently exceed one billion dollars in annual retail sales. In 2002, Nutrabolt (legally known as Woodbolt Distribution) was founded with the launch of the sports nutrition brand Cellucor. And then nine years later, Cellucor launched the C4 pre-workout product, which is currently (and has been for much of the last decade) the leading pre-workout brand globally. In early-2017, Nutabolt acquired Scivation, the maker of the top-selling post-workout recovery brand Xtend. But it was a year later when Nutrabolt made the single-most important decision in the company history to-date by launching carbonated C4 Energy drinks, which as I just mentioned essentially forced that hero SKU of Cellucor to be spun off into its own platform brand. Additionally, Nutrabolt acquired a significant minority stake in Bloom Nutrition last January…having the strategic foresight to allocate a portion of that KDP capital beyond simply fueling the energy drinks segment growth. And by all accounts a year later that strategic investment decision has paid off mightily…especially after Nutrabolt helped Bloom successfully launch its own energy drink about six months ago. And as I predicted…with KDP being impressed by the standout launch Bloom energy drinks had at Target last summer, it decided in October to sign a national sales and distribution deal with the female-forward positioned brand that began officially this month. But while Bloom might’ve been the first significant minority (but strategic) investment…I don’t see it being the last. And that’s because since that Nutrabolt and KDP deal content…I’ve been forthcoming on my belief that the executive leadership team is strategically focused on building a health and wellness focused version of Unilever. But while some portfolio expansion might come from internal brand (and product) development, I believe most will happen from accretive deal making that extends Nutrabolt into more key consumer-driven wellness platforms. So, my latest first principles thinking content will start by stating assumptions of the Nutrabolt investment criteria...but then explain which brands I believe could be potential fits for Nutrabolt within the attractive consumer-driven wellness platforms of healthy longevity need states like brain/cognitive health and gut health, but also protein and hydration. Potential Targets mention include: LMNT, Seed Health, Timeline Longevity, Thorne Healthtech, Neutonic, and Legendary Foods FOLLOW ME ON MY SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNTS ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LINKEDIN⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YOUTUBE⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TWITTER⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠INSTAGRAM⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FACEBOOK⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Each year, we’re currently adding more than 70 million new humans to the planet…which should make your head spin if you attempt to grasp how the food supply will handle this immense population proliferation. Were you able to pull an idea out of thin air? Wait a minute…that’s it! In the 1970s, NASA invented a method that allowed astronauts to use oxygen supplies to grow food. While this food technology was basically forgotten for four decades, the nascent air-fermentation-based proteins market is now rushing to scale up production and commercialize. And I’m sure skeptical consumers will scoff that microbes fed on carbon dioxide, hydrogen, and oxygen can produce edible protein…but it’s now not a matter of “if” but “when” global food production will be disrupted by precision fermentation and cellular agriculture. FOLLOW ME ON MY SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNTS ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LINKEDIN⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YOUTUBE⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TWITTER⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠INSTAGRAM⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FACEBOOK⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

If you haven’t noticed by now, I enjoy deconstructing the core mechanics behind different business models to see what makes them successful or not. It means dissecting how various companies generate revenue, understand their value propositions, identify their target markets, and examine the various strategies they use to deliver products and/or services. But I arguably have the most fun when analyzing companies that are generally outside of (but through some strategic decision is now entering) my deep domain expertise…which is the emerging and intersecting CPG categories of functional foods, functional beverages, and nutritional supplements. And this is exactly what happened when Factor, America’s leading ready-to-eat meal delivery service, recently announced the launch of its new supplements brand, Factor Form. In November 2020, Factor was acquired by the global leader of meal kits (HelloFresh) for $277 million…which was slightly below 3x revenue of Factor that year. And while I’m not sure the exact percentage that Factor contributes to the overall “ready-to-eat” product category revenue at HelloFresh right now (partly because of another categorical acquisition in 2021), it has grown substantially over the last four years…with the last earnings report release stating $1.6 billion in categorical revenue generated in first 9 months of 2024. So, with that type of growth in its core food offering…why even dabble in developing your own nutritional supplements brand extension? But also are meal delivery services developing their own nutritional supplements brand even a completely novel business strategy or simply another remix? And I’ve said it once and I’ll likely need to keep saying it until I’m blue in the face…but everything is a remix of the past (especially within the interesting CPG categories of functional foods, functional beverages, and nutritional supplements). So, I thought it would be fun to explore a few different strategic inspirations that could’ve been integrated into the decision by Factor to create Factor Form supplements. Finally, my latest first principles thinking content will explore my outlook for these business model combinations of offering “meal delivery services” and nutritional supplements. FOLLOW ME ON MY SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNTS ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LINKEDIN⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YOUTUBE⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TWITTER⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠INSTAGRAM⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FACEBOOK⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

What does the mythical phoenix bird rising from its own ashes after bursting into flames have in common with a Canadian supplement brand going public through a reverse takeover transaction? On December 19, 2024, a reverse takeover transaction involving Cizzle Brands was completed…and it was granted conditional approval to list its common shares on CBOE Canada (on December 30, 2024) under the stock ticker symbol CZZL. I’m sure most haven’t heard of Cizzle Brands yet...and that probably stems from the fact that CWENCH, the company’s flagship supplement brand, launched only seven months ago. Moreover, the second brand within the Cizzle Brands portfolio, Spoken Nutrition, hasn’t even launched yet. But I’m sure you’re now wondering why is (or how does) a “year one” company already go public…and that might be best answered if you understood the Cizzle Brands founder and CEO (and much of its leadership team). And that’s because before John Celenza started Cizzle Brands…he was a co-founder (and CEO) of BioSteel Sports Nutrition. But eventually, all good things must come to an end…and Canopy Growth (who acquired Biosteel in 2019) ceased its funding of hydration beverage brand in September 2023 (stating the brand was burning through $15 million in cash a month and failing to build momentum in the U.S. sports drinks market). When BioSteel was put up for sale in a court-supervised process, multiple parties expressed interest in potentially buying the company out of bankruptcy. And that included a group led by the Biosteel co-founder (and longtime CEO) John Celenza…ultimately losing to a more competitive offer by current owner Dan Crosby. But instead of wallowing in defeat, Cizzle Brands was created essentially out of those bankruptcy ashes…with previous leadership team members that were focused on recreating the specialness of the pre-acquisition Biosteel brand. And my latest first principles thinking content will analyze the strategic plan, financial performance, and innovation pipeline at Cizzle Brands. FOLLOW ME ON MY SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNTS ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LINKEDIN⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YOUTUBE⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TWITTER⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠INSTAGRAM⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FACEBOOK⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Can we all agree that Liquid Death is the king of the CPG industry when it comes to brand collaborations? It’s newest LTO merch offering solves a major golf etiquette problem…especially for those that “had one too many” Liquid Death and believe golf courses are essentially just massive public bathrooms. Now…instead of always running to the woods to pee, golfers can whizz right on the course in front of everyone. To make this public urination dream become a reality, Liquid Death partnered with not only Bad Birdie (one of the most disruptive golf apparel brands), but also one of the first entrepreneurs/inventors to get a deal on the first season of Shark Tank. And if you were wondering, The Uro Club is essentially a urinal for golfers, disguised as a golf club. FOLLOW ME ON MY SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNTS ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LINKEDIN⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YOUTUBE⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TWITTER⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠INSTAGRAM⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FACEBOOK⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

On the Monday before the Christmas holiday, USANA Health Sciences (which if you didn’t know is a U.S. public company trading on the NYSE under the stock ticker USNA) announced its acquisition of an almost 79% controlling ownership stake in Hiya Health for a $205 million cash transaction…with contract features providing acquisition of the remaining equity at a pre-negotiated valuation scale. For the last twelve months ended September 30, 2024, Hiya Health generated net sales of $103 million and adjusted EBITDA of $22 million. That implies a transaction value of approximately 2.5x trailing twelve months revenue or almost 12x adjusted EBITDA…both of which are mostly in line with recent M&A transactions across the VMS industry. And though other founders love to obsess over those comparative metrics, regardless of where they landed, I’d imagine this is an amazing financial outcome for a company that was only founded four years ago…and raised in total a measly half-million dollars. But why would a multilevel marketing supplement company, that generates more than 80 percent of its annual revenue within the Asia Pacific region, acquire a direct-to-consumer (DTC) children’s supplement brand focused on the U.S. market? And my latest first principles thinking content will explain the strategic rationale behind this M&A transaction including how the multilevel marketing business model appears to be falling flat for some companies after years of public scrutiny, regulatory pressures, and changing consumer tastes. Also, I'll examine several other value accretive investment opportunities that USANA has pursued to advance its long-term growth strategy. In December 2020, USANA made a strategic investment in the protein bar brand manufacturer Built Brands. Beyond receiving a minority equity stake (in a growing company), Built Brands’ expertise was leveraged to accelerate the development, enhancement, and expansion USANA nutrition bars that were to be manufactured in its new foods plant. And then in November 2022, USANA acquired the protein bar brand Rise Bar. Additionally, in that same announcement…USANA acquired an emerging direct selling company (called Oola) that leverages a personal development framework to sell “mind and body” supplements. But for these companies dropping multilevel marketing…it’s always important to remember that “grass isn’t always greener on the other side.” But with the form of direct selling invented 80 years ago by Carl Rehnborg now becoming a tainted term of sorts today…I’d expect more of these MLM companies to add diversified layers of growth. Yet don’t get it twisted…these moves are mostly targeted at slightly camouflaging the primary business model just long enough until multilevel marketing can be reframed (and transformed) into something more attractive to younger digitally native generations. FOLLOW ME ON MY SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNTS ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LINKEDIN⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YOUTUBE⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TWITTER⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠INSTAGRAM⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FACEBOOK⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠